Do the Oilers make the playoffs this year?

[CupofOil]

Simple question. Do they? Since losing to the Ducks in the 2nd round in 2017. They have failed to make the playoffs for three consecutive years and that's with two 100 point players on their roster. If they do fail again what changes do you see happening?

They made the playoffs last year in a real season, not a COVID format. Finished 2nd in the division, 5th in the west.

Next year who knows. They SHOULD make the playoffs but there's so much parity that it's far from a lock.

 

[Crabapple]

Yep. Especially if its a shortened season, Koskinen may struggle with a full starters workload, a shortened season would mean we see less of Smith.

Forward depth is much improved, defensive depth is a little worse after swapping Klefbom with Barrie. Hopefully Bear continues his development and can be a solid second pairing D. I expect a #2 finish after VGK like last year.

 

[North Cole]

They really weren't. The difference in point percentage between them and Winnipeg in 9th was 4 points over a full season

Winnipeg isn't in our division, so as long as we held onto a divisional spot, the P% in the other divisions doesn't matter. It was quite unlikely that the Pacific was going to grab one of the wild card spots last year

 

[Fourier]

If Klefbomb misses the season they miss the playoffs.

Klefbm's offense should be covered by Barrie quite easily. Defensively, Klefboms struggled last year, perhaps his worst in half a decade. Add in that Larsson may actually be helthy and it is likley that the defense is close to a wash from last year. The forwards are potentially significantly improved from the end of last year and are certainly significantly improved from the start of last year.

Last Year by Game 4:

Draisaitl McDavid Kassian
Neal Nugent Hopkins Jurco
Khaira Sheahan Archibald
Nygaard Granlund Chaisson

Klefbom Perrson
Nurse Bear
Russell Benning

This year:

Nuge McDavid Kassian
Kahun Draisaitl Yamamoto
Ennis Turris Puljujarvi
Neal Khaira Chaisson

Nurse Bear
Russell Barrie
Jones Larsson

 

[wetcoast]

Simple question. Do they? Since losing to the Ducks in the 2nd round in 2017. They have failed to make the playoffs for three consecutive years and that's with two 100 point players on their roster. If they do fail again what changes do you see happening?

This is false as they were clearly a playoff team this year.

They were 2nd in their division with 83 points.

 

[NinjaKick]

absolutely. I have them as my sleeper team in the west

 

[wetcoast]

1. Vegas
2. Calgary
3. Edmonton
4. Vancouver
5. Los Angeles
6. Arizona
7. Anaheim
8. San Jose

Calgary on paper looks good every year but then the on ice edition finds a way to make it not so.

Perhaps this year will be different?

Then again they really did step it up with the coaching change last season.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

Like most of the Canadian teams outside of Ottawa I think they’re a bubble team if the normal divisions hold. Goaltending and D are not great so they will once again have to outscore their weaknesses.
I don’t see any of the Canadian teams as true contenders this year although one could go on a bit of a playoff run if everything goes perfectly.

 

[Wes9310]

2 of the best players on the planet.....I do think so, but it will come down to the goaltending

 

[Regal]

Winnipeg isn't in our division, so as long as we held onto a divisional spot, the P% in the other divisions doesn't matter. It was quite unlikely that the Pacific was going to grab one of the wild card spots last year

The Pacific held one of the wild card spots in terms of points percentage though as both Calgary and Vancouver were closer than Winnipeg in terms of points percentage. I used Winnipeg because they were the first team out of the playoffs in the West by points percentage. Edmonton, Calgary, Vancouver, Nashville and Winnipeg were all within a 4 point pace, so if all of them passed Edmonton, the Oilers they would fall out (being 4th in the division with both wild cards going to the Central). Now, they were comfortably in because it's unlikely all those teams would leapfrog them with 11-13 games to go, but they weren't comfortably a playoff team in the sense that it should be assumed they'll make it again if they stay at roughly the same level. Simple variance could see them on the outside unless they improve (which they might if McDavid and Drai stay separated and the wingers work out)

 

[Regal]

Calgary on paper looks good every year but then the on ice edition finds a way to make it not so.

Perhaps this year will be different?

Then again they really did step it up with the coaching change last season.

They're only one year removed from having the 2nd best record in the league, though a lot rides on a 37 year old Giordano

 

[wetcoast]

They're only one year removed from having the 2nd best record in the league, though a lot rides on a 37 year old Giordano

Sure I guess but Anderson is emerging as a big MPG Dman and Hanifin/Tanev rounding out the top 4 along with forgotten prospect (due to injuries) in Välimäki gives them a really solid core.

They also have some really good depth forwards but their top line does have issues but some of that is offset by Matthew Tkachuk on the second line.

 

[North Cole]

The Pacific held one of the wild card spots in terms of points percentage though as both Calgary and Vancouver were closer than Winnipeg in terms of points percentage. I used Winnipeg because they were the first team out of the playoffs in the West by points percentage. Edmonton, Calgary, Vancouver, Nashville and Winnipeg were all within a 4 point pace, so if all of them passed Edmonton, the Oilers they would fall out (being 4th in the division with both wild cards going to the Central). Now, they were comfortably in because it's unlikely all those teams would leapfrog them with 11-13 games to go, but they weren't comfortably a playoff team in the sense that it should be assumed they'll make it again if they stay at roughly the same level. Simple variance could see them on the outside unless they improve (which they might if McDavid and Drai stay separated and the wingers work out)

In 2018-19, 90 points took the second western wild card spot, and 93 points took the third Pacific divisional spot.

83 points with 11 games to go, the Oilers had to play at 0.318 (7 of 22 points) to get to the 90 point threshold, and 0.455 to get to the Pacific threshold from the prior year. If you wanted to buffer in some variance and look at the previous year, you'd need 98 and 95 - which would be points percentages of 0.682 and 0.545. Considering that the Oilers were 0.585 over 71 games in 2019, I think it's fairly likely we would hit 94 points, and extremely likely to hit 90.

I think you're underestimating how big of a difference 4 points is in the current NHL, with 11 games left. The absolute worst team in the league (Detroit) played at 0.275 P% over the year, the next lowest was 0.437, and then 0.450. The 5 games before the break, the Oilers secured 5 of the 10 points available (0.500). I don't really see how the Oilers would have suddenly started playing well below the second and third worst teams in the league at 0.318 P% over the final stretch. Given how many divisional games there are near the end of the season, I'm not even sure two of the four teams would be able to pass them, since they all take points from each other. Is it possible we just blow all of our divisional games? Sure, but I wouldn't really bank on it. 0.585 p% = 96 points, which was enough for a playoff berth in each of the last 5 seasons, so I think if they did stay at exactly the same level this year, it's reasonable to say their chances would be good.

 

[MessierII]

The Pacific held one of the wild card spots in terms of points percentage though as both Calgary and Vancouver were closer than Winnipeg in terms of points percentage. I used Winnipeg because they were the first team out of the playoffs in the West by points percentage. Edmonton, Calgary, Vancouver, Nashville and Winnipeg were all within a 4 point pace, so if all of them passed Edmonton, the Oilers they would fall out (being 4th in the division with both wild cards going to the Central). Now, they were comfortably in because it's unlikely all those teams would leapfrog them with 11-13 games to go, but they weren't comfortably a playoff team in the sense that it should be assumed they'll make it again if they stay at roughly the same level. Simple variance could see them on the outside unless they improve (which they might if McDavid and Drai stay separated and the wingers work out)

They were a lock and it absolutely should be assumed they would have made it had they stayed at the same level.

 

[Regal]

They were a lock and it absolutely should be assumed they would have made it had they stayed at the same level.

I'm talking about for this season

 

[Regal]

In 2018-19, 90 points took the second western wild card spot, and 93 points took the third Pacific divisional spot.

83 points with 11 games to go, the Oilers had to play at 0.318 (7 of 22 points) to get to the 90 point threshold, and 0.455 to get to the Pacific threshold from the prior year. If you wanted to buffer in some variance and look at the previous year, you'd need 98 and 95 - which would be points percentages of 0.682 and 0.545. Considering that the Oilers were 0.585 over 71 games in 2019, I think it's fairly likely we would hit 94 points, and extremely likely to hit 90.

I think you're underestimating how big of a difference 4 points is in the current NHL, with 11 games left. The absolute worst team in the league (Detroit) played at 0.275 P% over the year, the next lowest was 0.437, and then 0.450. The 5 games before the break, the Oilers secured 5 of the 10 points available (0.500). I don't really see how the Oilers would have suddenly started playing well below the second and third worst teams in the league at 0.318 P% over the final stretch. Given how many divisional games there are near the end of the season, I'm not even sure two of the four teams would be able to pass them, since they all take points from each other. Is it possible we just blow all of our divisional games? Sure, but I wouldn't really bank on it. 0.585 p% = 96 points, which was enough for a playoff berth in each of the last 5 seasons, so I think if they did stay at exactly the same level this year, it's reasonable to say their chances would be good.

As I said, it's unlikely they would fall out with those games remaining, but my point is that a 96 point team one year can easily be a 90 point team the following year and fall out of the playoffs, even if they don't substantially change. ('18-19 was a lower point for the cutoff. The year before it was 95, the year before that it was 94) And that's not taking into account the wild swings that can happen year to year, especially when the Oilers don't exactly have a track record of success with this core. I think they have a better shot at getting in than not but I think some fans are getting ahead of themselves after one year that hinged on unsustainable special teams. Same as some Canucks fans are getting ahead of themselves after the playoffs, as they can easily miss.

 

[Soundwave]

As I said, it's unlikely they would fall out with those games remaining, but my point is that a 96 point team one year can easily be a 90 point team the following year and fall out of the playoffs, even if they don't substantially change. ('18-19 was a lower point for the cutoff. The year before it was 95, the year before that it was 94) And that's not taking into account the wild swings that can happen year to year, especially when the Oilers don't exactly have a track record of success with this core. I think they have a better shot at getting in than not but I think some fans are getting ahead of themselves after one year that hinged on unsustainable special teams. Same as some Canucks fans are getting ahead of themselves after the playoffs, as they can easily miss.

Any of the Canadian teams could easily miss, there isn't one thats really yet proven itself as a powerhouse year in, year out.

No one has really earned the right to strut.

 

[MessierII]

As I said, it's unlikely they would fall out with those games remaining, but my point is that a 96 point team one year can easily be a 90 point team the following year and fall out of the playoffs, even if they don't substantially change. ('18-19 was a lower point for the cutoff. The year before it was 95, the year before that it was 94) And that's not taking into account the wild swings that can happen year to year, especially when the Oilers don't exactly have a track record of success with this core. I think they have a better shot at getting in than not but I think some fans are getting ahead of themselves after one year that hinged on unsustainable special teams. Same as some Canucks fans are getting ahead of themselves after the playoffs, as they can easily miss.

Same can be said about literally any Canadian team though.

 

[Czechboy]

Don't get me wrong... I'm an avid Oiler's fan but arguing whether or not they made the playoffs is like arguing we would've won the Cup in 2006 if Roloson wasn't hurt. It's not a debate... it's a fact we didn't make the playoffs:

We are nowhere to be seen. 1 time in 14 years. Also a fact.

 

[Fatass]

Any of the Canadian teams could easily miss, there isn't one thats really yet proven itself as a powerhouse year in, year out.

No one has really earned the right to strut.

I think the Leafs, Flames, and Oilers are for sure 2021 playoff teams.

 

[Regal]

Same can be said about literally any Canadian team though.

Any of the Canadian teams could easily miss, there isn't one thats really yet proven itself as a powerhouse year in, year out.

No one has really earned the right to strut.

I agree. There's only a handful of teams that it would be surprising if they missed imo. And a potential Canadian division could probably see anyone but Ottawa win.

 

[North Cole]

As I said, it's unlikely they would fall out with those games remaining, but my point is that a 96 point team one year can easily be a 90 point team the following year and fall out of the playoffs, even if they don't substantially change. ('18-19 was a lower point for the cutoff. The year before it was 95, the year before that it was 94) And that's not taking into account the wild swings that can happen year to year, especially when the Oilers don't exactly have a track record of success with this core. I think they have a better shot at getting in than not but I think some fans are getting ahead of themselves after one year that hinged on unsustainable special teams. Same as some Canucks fans are getting ahead of themselves after the playoffs, as they can easily miss.

I cant speak to the rest of the fanbase, but if a small group of people didn't learn to chill out after we lost to Anaheim in G7, and then became a tire fire for 3 years, they probably can't be helped.

We can miss, but in the context of the poll, I'd would lean toward us being closer to in than out. We aren't anywhere near a contender, and who'll even know if we win a round, but I like the odds to make it. I dont think voting yes would be getting ahead of anything here.

We'll see i guess

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

We are nowhere to be seen. 1 time in 14 years. Also a fact.

that means nothing going forward
fact

 

[Del Preston]

Don't get me wrong... I'm an avid Oiler's fan but arguing whether or not they made the playoffs is like arguing we would've won the Cup in 2006 if Roloson wasn't hurt. It's not a debate... it's a fact we didn't make the playoffs:

View attachment 375281

We are nowhere to be seen. 1 time in 14 years. Also a fact.

And all it took was a once-in-a-lifetime pandemic to prevent them from missing the actual playoffs.

I think most people put way more stock in the 70+ games that were played during the regular season, over a glorified 4 or 5 game exhibition after five months off. They were a legitimate playoff team in 2019-20.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

I think the Leafs, Flames, and Oilers are for sure 2021 playoff teams.

You must REALLY like Koskenin