Do the Leafs win a cup in the next 10 years?

[Boom Boom Apathy]

If history repeats itself, over time, it will be 3-4 teams that win every cup over the next 10 years. Since the Pens 1st win:

Pens: 3 cups
Hawks: 3 cups
Kings: 2 cups

Only in 2011 when Boston won did a different team breakthrough. Question is, after the Pens slow down (whenever that happens), who will be the next Pens, Kings, and Hawks?

 

[Uncle Scrooge]

I think they will.

In my opinion, strong offense is easier to build around. You can always find ways to improve defensively, but there's no other recipe to scoring big goals and scoring enough goals than to have high-end offensive players. And that the Leafs have.

It's not always going to be sunshine and rainbows for Toronto and Edmonton, and years where they do not meet expectations will happen, but at the same time they're bound to have those deep runs and when they are clicking defensively, both teams have the guys up front that can get them over the hump.

Not to mention both teams also have young d-men that will be core guys for a long time.

So yeah i personally think both Toronto and Edmonton should win a cup in the next 10 years. Never guaranteed to happen, but i like their chances.

I think the toughest part is going to be winning the first one as a Canadian team in a long time. But as soon as someone does it, it takes the pressure off a bit for others IMO.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Many many talented teams didn't win Cups, or very infrequently.

Yep, no guarantees. Case in point is the Washington Capitals.

 

[treple13]

I'm not sure I'd answer "yes" if you gave me any of the 31 teams in the top section. The thing is that you only can really predict around the next 5 years or so. I'd say there are quite a few teams I'd put ahead of the Leafs in the next 1-2 years and then even if they are a top team in the few years after it's still probably a toss up whether they win.

I mean teams like Vancouver, San Jose and Washington all had star players and extended success without a Cup.

 

[Empoleon8771]

True, but I'm talking about what people were thinking a few years ago (not back in 2009 before Crosby and Malkin even signed these huge deals). Letang is fantastic, but he was missing time due to illness and injuries. This past cup, Letang didn't contribute at all to this recent Stanley cup run so the Pens didn't have a Norris caliber defenseman for the vast majority of this season and all of the playoffs.

He was actually moderately healthy from say 2010 to 2013, he played in 241 of 294 games, which actually isn't that bad. It's like 67 or 68 games in a full season, when he's only at like 55 games in a full season since. When Letang started missing more time in like 2013 and 2014, that's when Martin was playing at his peak and playing like a true #1 defenseman for the Penguins (and that's not an exaggeration either, he was really good).

Just as an aside, the Penguins defense in 2013-2014 was probably the best defense they have had on paper in the Crosby era, if I had to make a guess (if they would have played Despres more, it would be clearly the best). It's debatable between them and 2015-2016, but I think those are the two clear best years on paper for the Penguins defense.

See, that's where I disagree it proves the other guys point for exactly some of the reasons you stated. First off, the Leafs depth is phenomenal and they have a very good prospect pool as well. Once they sign their young players to their next contract, I don't see that depth just going away.

That's completely valid to say, I don't think forward depth will ever be a problem for the Leafs like it was for the Penguins and Capitals over the years. But you also have to question what will happen once guys like Bozak and JVR leave and how well guys like Kapanen and Leivo will be able to replace them, just because that's just the nature of prospects.

Also, their defense, on paper, isn't any worse at the core of it than the Pens was this past season (- Letang), and IMO, will only get better.

I also don't think the Penguins will ever be able to repeat what they did last year and win a cup with that defense. I don't think that season should be an indication that a team can win with a mediocre to poor defense if their offense is good enough, I think it shows a team can win with a mediocre to poor defense if their goalie is hot enough.

They've got a fantastic front office and a great coach.

I find Babcock as a coach to be overrated, same with Lou as a GM, but their front management staff is still very good. I don't think you can question their forwards or front office long term, at worst it will still be good to very good.

Goaltending, you are right in that Murray was elite, but a couple years ago, when I felt people thought that way about the Pens, nobody expected Murray to suddenly come onto the scene and be what he is. I also think Andersen can be better than he was this past season, his first on a new team with a new system.

That's exactly true, which is why you can't assume that will happen. Saying the Penguins had questionable goaltending up until their 2 cup wins (more specifically 2010-2013) is completely valid, and they got insanely lucky with Murray turning out to be what he is already. If Murray wouldn't have come up like he did, the Penguins wouldn't be coming off 2 cups in 2 years. Hell, I don't even know if they'd have 1. That kinda goes back to the point that it's really hard to tell this far into the future. If you would have asked me in 2013 if I ever saw the Penguins winning another within 5 years, I would have said no. They have 2 in 4 years since and now suddenly have a 23 year old elite starting goalie and more top end young wingers than they know what to do with.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

I don't think it's a question of "if" but "when" I see a Leafs-Oilers final by 2020 short of a lockout I don't think it can be stopped.

The NBA has Cleveland VS Golden State

The NHL will have Toronto VS Edmonton

Enjoy it because it cannot be stopped

 

[Empoleon8771]

I don't think it's a question of "if" but "when" I see a Leafs-Oilers final by 2020 short of a lockout I don't think it can be stopped.

The NBA has Cleveland VS Golden State

The NHL will have Toronto VS Edmonton

Enjoy it because it cannot be stopped

Hot take: neither the Leafs or the Oilers will make the cup finals by 2020. I actually think that's not really a hot take with the Leafs, it's more of a hot take with the Oilers than the Leafs. The Leafs have to deal with Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay and Columbus for the next 2-3 years, none of them are going anywhere. The Oilers have....uh, the Ducks? Blues too?

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

That's exactly true, which is why you can't assume that will happen. Saying the Penguins had questionable goaltending up until their 2 cup wins (more specifically 2010-2013) is completely valid, and they got insanely lucky with Murray turning out to be what he is already. If Murray wouldn't have come up like he did, the Penguins wouldn't be coming off 2 cups in 2 years. Hell, I don't even know if they'd have 1.

Oh I agree. You can't assume it will happen. My point was more that we can't also assume that what they have in goal today will be what they have in goal for the next 10 years (which is kind of what you said in the latter part of your post)

That kinda goes back to the point that it's really hard to tell this far into the future. If you would have asked me in 2013 if I ever saw the Penguins winning another within 5 years, I would have said no. They have 2 in 4 years since.

Yeah, that's what I was trying to get at. Rutherford really sucked at building a team from drafting / developing, but taking a talented team and getting them over the hump, like he did in 05/06 and with the Pens is his strong suit and he's been a perfect fit there.

 

[wintersej]

Saying the Penguins had questionable goaltending up until their 2 cup wins (more specifically 2010-2013) is completely valid, and they got insanely lucky with Murray turning out to be what he is already. If Murray wouldn't have come up like he did, the Penguins wouldn't be coming off 2 cups in 2 years. Hell, I don't even know if they'd have 1. That kinda goes back to the point that it's really hard to tell this far into the future. If you would have asked me in 2013 if I ever saw the Penguins winning another within 5 years, I would have said no. They have 2 in 4 years since and now suddenly have a 23 year old elite starting goalie and more top end young wingers than they know what to do with.

Bingo. What if Matthews shooting percentage gets a bit closer to league average and he is closer Sean Monahan next season? What if Reilly has another jump in development? There are a million "what ifs" in either direction. And each team has a million "what ifs". I mean, I was sure that the Zhamnov, Selanne, Tkachuk Jets would win multiple Cups, but they were garbage.

You need the top end star power that it looks like Tor has to win a Cup. But, once you get that, you realize that A LOT of teams have it, too.

 

[WTFMAN99]

First of all, thanks to those who contributed so far. I know there can be a heavy influx of Leaf's content here but I personally love the viewpoint from those who aren't fans. Sometimes people are misinformed but I do love the unbiased feedback people will give you from their point of view and there are certainly a lot of good posters on this forum.

For me when I created the thread you figure 2 more years of ELC and an 8 year contract extension for Matthews means that in the next 10 years that is the majority of the Matthews era. a #1C is one of the prerequisites for any team with cup aspirations. So I was curious if people thought the Matthews era would bring a cup.

I do think the management group we have in place is smart enough to know what the team's weaknesses are and will try their best to address it.

A lot of other valid points being brought up, tons of talented teams didn't win a cup and then their window closed, it could totally happen.

I think that if the Leafs are successful in upgrading the defense (I think they will be) then a cup is a decently strong possibility (as strong as it could be in a 31 team league) so I am leaning towards yes for a cup in the next decade but 100% respect the posters who think it may not happen because it's a damned hard thing to win.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Hot take: neither the Leafs or the Oilers will make the cup finals by 2020. I actually think that's not really a hot take with the Leafs, it's more of a hot take with the Oilers than the Leafs. The Leafs have to deal with Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay and Columbus for the next 2-3 years, none of them are going anywhere. The Oilers have....uh, the Ducks? Blues too?

Columbus is good but they don't have the depth down the middle Toronto does, they have nothing that can match Matthews

The Pens core is starting to get old by 2020 they will be ready yo step down

Tampa you might be right about but I'm not sold on their goaltending

 

[WTFMAN99]

Columbus is good but they don't have the depth down the middle Toronto does, they have nothing that can match Matthews

The Pens core is starting to get old by 2020 they will be ready yo step down

Tampa you might be right about but I'm not sold on their goaltending

I liked Bishop a lot more then Vas for sure.

Pens will inevitably have a decline. I mean it'll be hard to replace Crosby and Malkin at some point.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Columbus is good but they don't have the depth down the middle Toronto does, they have nothing that can match Matthews

The Pens core is starting to get old by 2020 they will be ready yo step down

Tampa you might be right about but I'm not sold on their goaltending

You can say literally the same thing about the Leafs defense vs the Jackets defense. The Penguins should still be good in 2020 because they have a second younger core of guys like Guentzel, Sheary, Sprong, Maatta, Dumoulin, Rust and Murray. Crosby and Malkin will likely follow the career paths of guys like Sakic and Yzerman, so the Penguins in 2020 should still be good enough to contend. Sakic at age 34 put up 87 points in 81 games in the peak of the dead puck era, I'm really not concerned with the Penguins current core.

I liked Bishop a lot more then Vas for sure.

Pens will inevitably have a decline. I mean it'll be hard to replace Crosby and Malkin at some point.

The Penguins will inevitably have a decline, but it's more likely to be in 6+ years than in 3 years IMO. Superstar players don't usually just fall off in their lower 30s, it's usually in their mid to later 30s.

And even then, 3 year predictions are hard to make. 3 years ago, the Penguins were coming off blowing a 3-1 series lead against the Rangers in the 2nd round with Bylsma as their head coach, Shero as their GM and a lineup with no depth, questionable goaltending, lacking talent on the wings and overpaid old players. The Penguins don't have any of those anymore, and that change happened even quicker than 3 years.

Oh I agree. You can't assume it will happen. My point was more that we can't also assume that what they have in goal today will be what they have in goal for the next 10 years (which is kind of what you said in the latter part of your post)



Yeah, that's what I was trying to get at. Rutherford really sucked at building a team from drafting / developing, but taking a talented team and getting them over the hump, like he did in 05/06 and with the Pens is his strong suit and he's been a perfect fit there.

Yeah, that's definitely true. Polls like these are silly because no one can even remotely tell what's going to happen that far into the future. The #1 pick in 8 years is currently 10 years old. I voted no because it's a safer pick to go no than yes I think, because it's never safe to assume that just because you have a good young team, you're guaranteed a cup.

 

[SB84]

If not they will be a constant threat like SJ for the next decade. I can see a cup finals appearance or two

 

[Hennessy]

No is the obvious safe bet, for any team in the league.

 

[WTFMAN99]

You can say literally the same thing about the Leafs defense vs the Jackets defense. The Penguins will still be good in 2020 because they have a second younger core of guys like Guentzel, Sheary, Sprong, Maatta, Dumoulin, Rust and Murray. Crosby and Malkin will likely follow the career paths of guys like Sakic and Yzerman, so the Penguins in 2020 should still be good enough to contend. Sakic at age 34 put up 87 points in 81 games in the peak of the dead puck era, I'm really not concerned with the Penguins current core.



The Penguins will inevitably have a decline, but it's more likely to be in 6+ years than in 3 years IMO. Superstar players don't usually just fall off in their lower 30s, it's usually in their mid to later 30s.

I like Guentzel a LOT. Good player. Sheary and Rust will be interesting. I think they can play well with elite talent (it's actually quite a skill to be able to do that), Sprong is an unknown, Maatta is "alright" standard 2nd pairing guy but will injuries catch up to Letang/Malkin/Crosby? They've had some significant injuries so far in their careers. Could easily say the Leafs may experience long term injuries too but 30's those things tend to take their toll on the body.

I don't see Crosby ever falling off a cliff if he's in the line up though he'll produce.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

You need the top end star power that it looks like Tor has to win a Cup. But, once you get that, you realize that A LOT of teams have it, too.

Yep, that's right. If I had to pick some teams to win a cup in the next 10 years, TOR and EDM would be 2 of my choices, but by no means is it a given (see Washington Capitals). I just like what both teams are building and how they've progressed so far. Of course, getting lucky to get the 1st OA at the right time helps as well.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I like Guentzel a LOT. Good player. Sheary and Rust will be interesting. I think they can play well with elite talent (it's actually quite a skill to be able to do that), Sprong is an unknown, Maatta is "alright" standard 2nd pairing guy but will injuries catch up to Letang/Malkin/Crosby? They've had some significant injuries so far in their careers. Could easily say the Leafs may experience long term injuries too but 30's those things tend to take their toll on the body.

I don't see Crosby ever falling off a cliff if he's in the line up though he'll produce.

That's just the question, no one can tell. That's the point I kinda keep reiterating in here, there's just way too much that can change to be making any sort of definitive claims. Letang might have to retire due to reoccurring injuries. Crosby might have to retire due to getting another major concussion. Malkin may retire to go back to play in Russia. Logically speaking, the Penguins team in 3 years should still be good, but so much can change in those 3 years that makes them bad.

With this being said, I should change my wording in that post from "will be good" to "should still be good".

 

[Mathew Barzal]

I have no idea, but that series against Washington was really impressive. I wouldn't be surprised if they win multiple.

 

[BigWilly]

If I was a betting man, I'd say it's not probable. It's very difficult to predict what happens in the future. 31 teams in the league now - many are well built. 10-year horizon isn't favorable for anyone, really.

But my heart says yes. Matthews has the kind of potential to win the Rocket and the Selke, as a centre. That's insane. After having the pleasure to watch him all year, I'm confident in saying he'll ascend to one of the top players in the NHL sooner rather than later.

His support on offense is as good as any team in the league during the next 10 years. The defense is betting on Liljergren and Dermott developing into top 4D. They have both been very impressive so far and Dermott is already knocking on the door. He's a big, tough, smooth-skating LHD who's put up top-4 offensive numbers everywhere he goes. Praised by coaches for being so physically strong and adept at closing the gap on players. He's known to be great at break-up opposing offensive plays at the blueline and in the neutral zone. He's also amazing to watch at collecting the puck in his own end and quarter-backing an effective break-out. Justin Bourne (former marlies video coach and current writer for The Athletic) refers to Dermott as looking like 'Micheal Vick in the pocket'. I'm high on him, and think the Leafs should have a very solid left side on their D. The right side is kind of up in the air right now. If Liljegren turns out well then the Leafs could certainly have a line-up as good as any. He's been performing great at every game post draft. However, that's not a large sample.


I voted 'yes' because I'm a homer and I think the question is unfair. A better question would have been, 'Do the Leafs have as good a chance as any to win the cup in the next 10 years?'.

 

[Advanced stats]

Hot take: neither the Leafs or the Oilers will make the cup finals by 2020. I actually think that's not really a hot take with the Leafs, it's more of a hot take with the Oilers than the Leafs. The Leafs have to deal with Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay and Columbus for the next 2-3 years, none of them are going anywhere. The Oilers have....uh, the Ducks? Blues too?

Columbus really? If this leafs team trends anywhere close to it's potential, Columbus won't be an issue. Buffalo is more concerning.
Tampa too, like the leafs have some questions going forward and it's debatable who will be better going forward, even for the next 3 seasons.

 

[Conspiracy Theorist]

Nope.

 

[LeafingTheWay]

For sure.

 

[mike dad bab clock]

If Liljegren turns out well then the Leafs could certainly have a line-up as good as any. He's been performing great at every game post draft.

I wouldn't say every game but he's definitely had flashes of brilliance. I hope he excels in the AHL and continues to work on the holes in his game. (assuming the AHL is where he plays)

 

[LeafGrief]

We will certainly have a window where we are legit cup contenders in there. I certainly hope that we can lift the mug at least once. I voted yes, but there are excellent teams that lose every year.