Devon Toews vs Darnell Nurse

[SeanMoneyHands]

Toews, not close. Much better all round game, very underrated.

 

[Islay1989]

The worst forward in 5v5 xGF% on the team was at 55%. The worst D was at 56.5%. Those aren't normal results.

I'm sure any reasonable Avs fan would agree the system and depth of the team inflated their possession numbers(aka what those WAR charts use to blindly rank players).

The defense was the driver of that depth. Those defensemen also played with the likes of Jimothy Timothy Compher, Tyson Jost, PEB etc and still drove those metrics like crazy.

 

[TeddyBare]

He's obviously an important part of the success, but when every single regular defenseman on the team has analytics nearing or over 60%, it's pretty obvious the base line for those stats is higher than normal because they're on such a good team.

What the hell are you talking about cf% is not a model

nothing you have said disproves his impact considering his impact on other team mates when he is on and off the ice.

 

[kthx]

Wow didn't know Toews was rated this highly.

 

[Llamamoto]

Because the north division is certainly much better than the west!

Yeah the Coyotes/Kings/Sharks/Ducks are all powerhouses.

 

[McDNicks17]

What the hell are you talking about cf% is not a model

nothing you have said disproves his impact considering his impact on other team mates when he is on and off the ice.

No one said Corsi haha.

WAR charts are almost entirely just a simple visual for already established expected goal models.

 

[TeddyBare]

No one said Corsi haha.

WAR charts are almost entirely just a simple visual for already established expected goal models.

yup still can’t grasp the concept of his impact on the team and regression analysis

sigh

 

[McDNicks17]

yup still can’t grasp the concept of his impact on the team and regression analysis

sigh

I would love to see your regression analysis on it haha.

Show your work.

 

[a mangy Meowth]

I'm sure any reasonable Avs fan would agree the system and depth of the team inflated their possession numbers(aka what those WAR charts use to blindly rank players).

Well yeah, no shit. The players on the team being good (in a system that plays to their strengths) made their numbers look better than if they were worse players or the system were a poorer fit. I'm not being deliberately obtuse here, you're just making an argument with zero substance.

Nobody worth their salt takes any of these rel stats purely at face value. They're still worth discussing and provide insight though.

 

[TeddyBare]

I would love to see your regression analysis on it haha.

Show your work.

so by your claims then their “above replacement stats” should be identical among guys like graves and Toews.

hahahahaha
Check notes

 

[a mangy Meowth]

I would love to see your regression analysis on it haha.

Show your work.

You show your work lmfao. You're the one pissing on these demonstrable stats without providing any real argument other than the quite funny "WAR ignores quality of competition" zinger you had early on.

 

[Breakers]

I’ll take the guy who makes half as much and has a bigger impact.

 

[123offtheglass]

Nurse for sure. People gonna start underrating him because he got overpaid.

 

[McDNicks17]

You show your work lmfao. You're the one pissing on these demonstrable stats without providing any real argument other than the quite funny "WAR ignores quality of competition" zinger you had early on.

Those "demonstrable" stats are simply expected goals for and expected goals against put into a pretty little chart.

They almost entirely ignore role, time on ice, competition and teammates. That's not even mentioning that they're comparing players that pretty much played across four different leagues last year.

 

[ManofSteel55]

I’ll take the guy who makes half as much and has a bigger impact.

But those are two different people.

 

[Breakers]

But those are two different people.

No they arent

 

[ManofSteel55]

No they arent

What a well thought out rebuttal.

 

[bossram]

Holy cow half the people voted for Nurse, lmao.

 

[Breakers]

What a well thought out rebuttal.

you replied to me
Not the other way around

 

[a mangy Meowth]

Those "demonstrable" stats are simply expected goals for and expected goals against put into a pretty little chart.

They almost entirely ignore role, time on ice, competition and teammates. That's not even mentioning that they're comparing players that pretty much played across four different leagues last year.

They actually don't ignore TOI, QoC, QoT, etc. Maybe in your opinion the data isn't representative of anything and that's fine and very possibly true, but those are absolutely taken into account be it in a flawed way or not. You're welcome to not believe that the charts say anything of value, but I feel like you can, in fact, gain some insight through expected goal values.

Anyways, those are a lot of hefty claims you are making in regards to well documented analytics. Show your work please.

 

[a mangy Meowth]

What a well thought out rebuttal.

Your initial rebuttal hardly even deserved a response, let alone a well thought out one.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

The worst forward in 5v5 xGF% on the team was at 55%. The worst D was at 56.5%. Those aren't normal results.

I'm sure any reasonable Avs fan would agree the system and depth of the team inflated their possession numbers(aka what those WAR charts use to blindly rank players).

Who are you to question charts that suggest Seth Jones was replacement level last year?

 

[ManofSteel55]

you replied to me
Not the other way around

I responded to you. Then you responded to me. With a statement a 5 year old could have made, hence my "well thought out rebuttal".

Your initial rebuttal hardly even deserved a response, let alone a well thought out one.

If he thought it didn't deserve a response, he wouldn't have responded.

If this is the level of conversation you two are bringing to this discussion, I will see myself out. You are a half step from "I am rubber you are glue" here.

 

[McDNicks17]

They actually don't ignore TOI, QoC, QoT, etc. Maybe in your opinion the data isn't representative of anything and that's fine and very possibly true, but those are absolutely taken into account be it in a flawed way or not. You're welcome to not believe that the charts say anything of value, but I feel like you can, in fact, gain some insight through expected goal values.

Anyways, those are a lot of hefty claims you are making in regards to well documented analytics. Show your work please.

I didn't say you couldn't gain any insight from expected goal models. I'm saying, in this particular case, the insight you will get is unreliable because those numbers don't account for the difference in competition, team, division, etc.

And I didn't say they ignored those things. I said they almost do because they're weighted so low they have almost no impact on the numbers.

I really didn't think the statement that Toews isn't quite as good as the numbers on those WAR charts say(aka the 5th best defenseman in the league) would be all that controversial.

 

[Breakers]

I responded to you With a statement a 5 year old could have made, hence my "well thought out rebuttal".

I agree