Prospect Info: Devils Win #2 Overall -- Slafkovsky vs. Jiricek vs. Nemec

[RangerDoggo]

If Fitz can trade down I’d be all for that over anything else at 2

 

[Captain3rdLine]

I thought Crosby was generational but now it looks like Ovechkin's gonna finish with a better career when it's all over. How can you be generational when a player of your "generation" has a stronger resume?

Matthews/McDavid/Makar might be similar.

What has made Ovechkin’s career better?

 

[MWagg72]

Bastian was on PP1....seems like a perfect role for Slaf in a year or so.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

Bastian was on PP1....seems like a perfect role for Slaf in a year or so.

Yes a more skilled big net front guy.

 

[Poppy Whoa Sonnet]

What has made Ovechkin’s career better?

Yeah i mean I don't want to derail the thread, but it's at least gonna be a debate. I think he's gonna be sent out until he breaks Gretzky's scoring record for one, that contract he signed seemed to be a signal that the Caps are gonna prioritize that over having the most competitive team possible in 4 years.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

Yeah i mean I don't want to derail the thread, but it's at least gonna be a debate. I think he's gonna be sent out until he breaks Gretzky's scoring record for one, that contract he signed seemed to be a signal that the Caps are gonna prioritize that over having the most competitive team possible in 4 years.

I think Crosby has still be a better player for most of his career and he has a accomplished a ton. It’s a long list that includes 3 cups.
I don’t think Ovechkin having the goal scoring record necessarily changes things.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Yes, and if your GM & head(s) of scouting ate afraid of making decisions they should get another job.

This reminds of 2017 after the lottery, but before the draft, when some people said they would have preferred the 2nd pick so they could take the player left because deciding was so hard(?) and they were afraid of being wrong (?).

f*** that noise. We gained a wide choice of the top players and that’s what you want. Disappointments and even busts do happen, so what, that’s life. You still want the opportunity to choose. There’s no reason to be cowardly about it.

The idea of actually preferring to have other teams make the choice for you by picking before you, and your team forced to take what’s left, so you’re more insulated from criticism, is loser talk.

And if people bring up other fans criticizing the Nico choice in 2017 in hindsight, I don’t give a flying f*** about that, so that’s not a problem for me either.

There's no bust to be had at #1/#2 overall with Wright and Slafkovsky, because both of their "downsides" are still extremely useful players. I feel the risk rises a bit with defensemen, and the next best forwards of Nazar and Cooley also have a bit more risk, simply because they need to be in top-line type roles in order to truly succeed.

Nico was the right choice in 2017. He's a phenomenal player. I'm confident Slafkovsky will be the choice in 2022, and although I'm personally equally enamored with Jiricek, I think Slafkovsky will be a great pick, as well.

I'm a little worried that you're swearing less. Only two F-words in a 7-sentence post? Is something wrong?

 

[Eggtimer]

I’d say possibly becomimg the greatest goal scorer of all time in the history of the NHL might hold some weight to be able to call Ovie generational……

 

[Hisch13r]

I thought Crosby was generational but now it looks like Ovechkin's gonna finish with a better career when it's all over. How can you be generational when a player of your "generation" has a stronger resume?

Matthews/McDavid/Makar might be similar.

Sid>>Ovi

 

[StevenToddIves]

Since Slafkofsky is a consensus for us at # 2, the interesting question is what if Montreal crosses everyone up by selecting him first? If he's off the board unexpectedly when we pick, whom do we go for?

If Slafkovsky goes #1 overall -- which is not a strong possibility, but still represents a possibility which actually exists -- this would be my scenario:

The phone will ring pretty quickly, with Arizona on the other end. They are desperate for a #1 center, they are desperate for a gate attraction, and they are desperate for some good PR.

And then I make them pay out the nose because, quite frankly, I'm perfectly happy adding Shane Wright to the Devils core. Arizona has 3 first round picks and 2 second round picks this year. I want the #3 overall, one of the two later first-rounders and a second-round pick. If it sounds like a lot to move up one spot in the draft, then too bad, I'm taking Wright.

If Arizona bites? Then I take Jiricek at #3, and hope to get one of the high-end Russians (Perevalov, Miroshnichenko, Trikozov) with the later first-round pick.

 

[Oneiro]

I would argue that Slafkovsky's passing vision is superior to Cooley, and I'd say his hands are about the same but I would give the edge to Slafkovsky because his ability to protect the puck with his body in tight makes him a dangerous stickhandler even when it seems there is no space.

I'd say Cooley has two advantages over Slafkovsky -- his speed is just ridiculous and his skating is beautiful, and these are significant advantages to say the least. This lends itself to Cooley's second advantage, which is that he's superior to Slafkovsky off the rush.

Slafkovsky, however, has about a dozen advantages over Cooley. I can write a dissertation about how rare Slafkovsky's abilities are down low -- when you combine his power game, passing and puck control, he's just a freak. He's more physical and he's just insanely talented in the opposing crease and along the boards. His shot is underutilized but it's actually very heavy and quite good.

It's also important to note that Cooley's advantages over Slafkovsky are aspects of the game which the Devils are already very, very good in. Cooley does not have the upside of Jack Hughes or Jesper Bratt in the speed/transition department. All of the Slafkovsky's many advantages over Cooley are aspects of the game which the Devils desperately, desperately lack.

The Devils were 3rd in the NHL in scoring off the rush, and 22nd in scoring off the cycle -- the largest discrepancy in either direction in the entire NHL. Though there are two more "finesse forwards" with top 6 potential on the way in Holtz and Gritsyuk, there are no "interior forwards" with top 6 potential in the system.

It is for these reasons that, for the Devils, picking Logan Cooley over Juraj Slafkovsky would represent not simply a *bad pick*, but a cataclysmic failure of team-building acumen. Not only is Slafkovsky the superior prospect, but he also represents the answer to a clear problem as opposed to yet another hammer stroke on the same old nail.

Again, there would be no complaints from my end if the Devils drafted David Jiricek or Simon Nemec. As players of an entirely different area of need who are both outstanding prospects, this would be a perfectly sane and logical route to go. Comparing a defenseman to a forward, when they are similarly high level players, is a silly rabbit hole to go digging down. But I do not see Cooley over Slafkovsky as even a vague consideration by the Devils scouting team, which is why I subtitled this thread "Slafkovsky vs. Jiricek vs. Nemec".

I of course realize that you're not advocating Cooley at #2 overall, but I just wanted to respond to this particular post because of the singular idea I dispute which is that Cooley is somehow a better playmaker/puckhandler than Slafkovsky. You're certainly correct that Cooley is a phenomenal prospect who is more dangerous in transition than perhaps any player in the entire 2022 class. But anywhere other than transition, I'd have to give the edge soundly to Slafkovsky, as well as a tremendous edge as per who would be the wiser choice at #2 overall for NJ.

All I'm saying is that Cooley's transition game possibly ends up counting for more in this iteration of the league. And if the Devils did have a very strong opinion of his abilities relative to Slafkovsky, they're picking him understanding that this is a player you live with between 7-15 years because he's that good and you adjust the roster around him. Now I doubt they do that and frankly, I doubt he's THAT good otherwise some of the analysis would reflect a consensus. But I will always think roster construction should go out the window if you believe there's a qualitative difference, even if that isn't the case here. I agree that Slaf looks like a rare player in this day and age and his puck protection abilitie, coupled with his hands, are noteworthy. If I was Fitz in the room with Cooley and Slaf on the board and my guys are telling me it's equal, I go Slaf for the reasons that you state. But again - all I'm saying is the game state that is Slaf's bread and butter (full offensive possession with all five guys, cycling from low to high) is getting shorter and shorter in exchange for trading chances, defending in transition and making plays at high speed.

If there was an exact Jack Hughes clone - tools/stats - in this draft, you would not take him at 2 and figure the rest out later? Seriously?

 

[Inno]

Draft Cooley.

 

[glenwo2]

I’d say possibly becomimg the greatest goal scorer of all time in the history of the NHL might hold some weight to be able to call Ovie generational……

to be quite clear, when I first talked about "generational", I was using only the last 7 years as a timeframe, not more than that.

Otherwise, you're definitely spot on with that.

 

[My3Sons]

All I'm saying is that Cooley's transition game possibly ends up counting for more in this iteration of the league. And if the Devils did have a very strong opinion of his abilities relative to Slafkovsky, they're picking him understanding that this is a player you live with between 7-15 years because he's that good and you adjust the roster around him. Now I doubt they do that and frankly, I doubt he's THAT good otherwise some of the analysis would reflect a consensus. But I will always think roster construction should go out the window if you believe there's a qualitative difference, even if that isn't the case here. I agree that Slaf looks like a rare player in this day and age and his puck protection abilitie, coupled with his hands, are noteworthy. If I was Fitz in the room with Cooley and Slaf on the board and my guys are telling me it's equal, I go Slaf for the reasons that you state. But again - all I'm saying is the game state that is Slaf's bread and butter (full offensive possession with all five guys, cycling from low to high) is getting shorter and shorter in exchange for trading chances, defending in transition and making plays at high speed.

If there was an exact Jack Hughes clone - tools/stats - in this draft, you would not take him at 2 and figure the rest out later? Seriously?

Wouldn’t a Hughes player be a consensus first pick though? I am reading mixed things about Cooley and when I watched him he looked good but i didn’t come away thinking he’s a must grab at the top of the draft either. I presume NJ will have plenty of time and eyeballs watcgHing a number of guys at the top of the draft but it is likely going to boil down to whoever Fitz thinks is the best prospect.

 

[Guttersniped]

I thought Crosby was generational but now it looks like Ovechkin's gonna finish with a better career when it's all over. How can you be generational when a player of your "generation" has a stronger resume?

Matthews/McDavid/Makar might be similar.

I take “generational” to mean that the players stand out even among elite players and don’t come around very often. It’s kind of a goofy term but usable. I don’t see the point about being a stickler about the meaning if it keeps everyone out.

Gordie Howe is arguably the most generational player ever if you just go by his competition in the NHL, but that’s in part due to the limits on where the competition came from during his prime years in the 50s-60s.

Gretzky only had five years before Lemieux showed up but is that a generation? Both are “generational” to me.

I don’t know if I even see Ovechkin’s career as better. There’s some recency bias there, while avoiding the earlier career dips.

I don’t even particularly compare them in my head, even though the hockey world seemingly demands it.

Ovechkin is the greatest goal scorer ever, partly because “the Russian machine never breaks” while pure goal scorers break easily and often early.

I don’t compare him so much to a center than drives a line, makes wingers better and can take over a game more.
They just seems so different to me. They also come from different countries. If you’re going to be extraordinarily strict about what “generational” then they cancel each other out because it shouldn’t be a coin toss. Or the world is big enough for both as generational. This isn’t The Highlander.

I have developed soft spot for Crosby because his success has come in part with his willingness to be a superstar two-way grinder. Like Lemieux, his endless struggles with injuries have left a what if? aspect to career.

The seasons Crosby missed significant time in the regular season (less than 70GP in full seasons):
2007-08 53 GP(3rd season; age 20)
2010-11 41 GP (6th season; age 23)
2011-12 22 GP (7th season; age 24)
2019-20 41 GP [out of 69 games, equivalent of 49/82 GP] (15th season; age 32)
2021-22 69 GP (17th season; age 34)

Crosby missed the entire 2010-11 playoffs.
Missed 1GP in 2012-13 PO.
Missed 1GP in 2016-17 PO
Missed 1GP in 2021-22 PO so far.

The seasons Ovechkin missed significant time in the regular season (less than 70GP in full seasons):
2020-21 45 GP [out of 56 games, equivalent of 66/82 GP] (16th season; age 35)

Ovechkin hasn’t missed one playoff game.

With Makar/Matthews/McDavid.

Matthews at times looked like competition for the crown but McDavid is still the best statistically and he’s stepped up by dragging his team into the 2nd round.

Matthews looking more like Ovechkin’s heir as top goal scorer in the league, though longevity is obviously a requirement there so he needs to keep it going.

And Makar is defenseman. It’s extraordinary difficult for a defenseman to get into these conversations (and nearly impossible for goalies). Lindstrom is the only recent guy who gets in those conversations.

 

[Guttersniped]

There's no bust to be had at #1/#2 overall with Wright and Slafkovsky, because both of their "downsides" are still extremely useful players. I feel the risk rises a bit with defensemen, and the next best forwards of Nazar and Cooley also have a bit more risk, simply because they need to be in top-line type roles in order to truly succeed.

Nico was the right choice in 2017. He's a phenomenal player. I'm confident Slafkovsky will be the choice in 2022, and although I'm personally equally enamored with Jiricek, I think Slafkovsky will be a great pick, as well.

I'm a little worried that you're swearing less. Only two F-words in a 7-sentence post? Is something wrong?

It’s Sunday, the day of our Lord, so I like to show a little respect.

 

[StevenToddIves]

All I'm saying is that Cooley's transition game possibly ends up counting for more in this iteration of the league. And if the Devils did have a very strong opinion of his abilities relative to Slafkovsky, they're picking him understanding that this is a player you live with between 7-15 years because he's that good and you adjust the roster around him. Now I doubt they do that and frankly, I doubt he's THAT good otherwise some of the analysis would reflect a consensus. But I will always think roster construction should go out the window if you believe there's a qualitative difference, even if that isn't the case here. I agree that Slaf looks like a rare player in this day and age and his puck protection abilitie, coupled with his hands, are noteworthy. If I was Fitz in the room with Cooley and Slaf on the board and my guys are telling me it's equal, I go Slaf for the reasons that you state. But again - all I'm saying is the game state that is Slaf's bread and butter (full offensive possession with all five guys, cycling from low to high) is getting shorter and shorter in exchange for trading chances, defending in transition and making plays at high speed.

If there was an exact Jack Hughes clone - tools/stats - in this draft, you would not take him at 2 and figure the rest out later? Seriously?

Yes, if there was a demarcation between 2/3 overall where #2 was equivalent to Jack Hughes and #3 was equivalent to Kappo Kakko, then of course I'd draft Hughes, because the difference in talent is over a full tier.

But I would say Slafkovsky is about a "half tier" above Cooley, and he's the more needed player-type. So, I'm confident if the Devils go with a forward at #2, Slafkovsky is a lock for the pick.

 

[Eggtimer]

If Slafkovsky goes #1 overall -- which is not a strong possibility, but still represents a possibility which actually exists -- this would be my scenario:

The phone will ring pretty quickly, with Arizona on the other end. They are desperate for a #1 center, they are desperate for a gate attraction, and they are desperate for some good PR.

And then I make them pay out the nose because, quite frankly, I'm perfectly happy adding Shane Wright to the Devils core. Arizona has 3 first round picks and 2 second round picks this year. I want the #3 overall, one of the two later first-rounders and a second-round pick. If it sounds like a lot to move up one spot in the draft, then too bad, I'm taking Wright.

If Arizona bites? Then I take Jiricek at #3, and hope to get one of the high-end Russians (Perevalov, Miroshnichenko, Trikozov) with the later first-round pick.

This is if Habs don’t take Wright and assume they take Slaf correct ? If the very slim chance they don’t go Wright , I’d say then going Cooley is also “ possible “ . Unlikely but still possible . Then I go Slaf and hopefully Chesley . Hood god what that be a haul …. Then go Miroshnichenko with earliest 2nd and Ostlund….. ( both the last two will be long gone) Maybe the other Jack Hughes just because … he could be a very good 3c option
But imagine a draft of Slaf / Chesley …
Or even Jiricek Miro

 

[StevenToddIves]

Wouldn’t a Hughes player be a consensus first pick though? I am reading mixed things about Cooley and when I watched him he looked good but i didn’t come away thinking he’s a must grab at the top of the draft either. I presume NJ will have plenty of time and eyeballs watcgHing a number of guys at the top of the draft but it is likely going to boil down to whoever Fitz thinks is the best prospect.

Cooley is an outstanding prospect, but I can't say with confidence he's the player I would take first from his own team -- that might be Frank Nazar, who is a bit more dynamic in his overall game and the more versatile player.

I cannot see the Devils scouting staff having Cooley ranked over Slafkovsky, I just can't. Cooley is superior in skating and transition, Slafkovsky is equal or superior in literally everything else. The only argument to draft Cooley would be statistical, and therefore foolish. How many points would Slafkovsky have accumulated if he were playing for the US-NTDP? 90? 95?

 

[kudla]

I am sure the Devils organization is deciding only between Slaf and Jiricek

 

[Nico Hischier]

I really hope we draft jiricek. I really hope we avoid slafkovsky (my gut says bust). I would rather draft the best RD Who has the potential to be the best defenseman in the draft.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

I really hope we draft jiricek. I really hope we avoid slafkovsky (my gut says bust). I would rather draft the best RD Who has the potential to be the best defenseman in the draft.

I disagree with your gut lol. I also think Nemec is better and he currently seems to be a bit higher ranked. If we’re going with a D I’d go with Nemec.
But I think Slafkovsky is the best prospect and will be a very good player.

Also think it’s highly unlikely we take Jiricek. I’d say Slafkovsky, Cooley, Wright, and Nemec are all more likely to be our pick as of right now.

Jiricek could be more likely with a really strong World Championships. So far 2 games in he’s been decent. Some good and some bad. Has looked good on the powerplay and showed off his shot Game 1. Was more involved in the 3rd today and broke up a couple plays. He’s also had some turnovers though and was on for a couple goals today where I think he could’ve been a little better. Hasn’t been put under a ton of pressure defensively and when he’s had the puck. We’ll see how he does over the next 6-8 games.

So far I don’t think he’s shown enough to solidify himself as a top 5 pick or an actual contender who has a decent chance of being taken by the Devils at 2.

 

[StevenToddIves]

This is if Habs don’t take Wright and assume they take Slaf correct ? If the very slim chance they don’t go Wright , I’d say then going Cooley is also “ possible “ . Unlikely but still possible . Then I go Slaf and hopefully Chesley . Hood god what that be a haul …. Then go Miroshnichenko with earliest 2nd and Ostlund….. ( both the last two will be long gone) Maybe the other Jack Hughes just because … he could be a very good 3c option
But imagine a draft of Slaf / Chesley …

Cooley is not a possibility at #1 overall. The only area he is superior to Wright is skating. Wright is better at literally everything else, and is the top two-way center in the entire draft. He's closer to the NHL. It would be a media melt-down if Wright was not taken and instead the Habs drafted an inferior player at the same position.

Look, Logan Cooley is a tremendous hockey player. I do not wish to disparage him. He's got outstanding wheels and a tremendous combination of playmaking and puck-handling skills; he's a speed-demon in the transition game, has a very high hockey IQ and is decent two ways.

But he's not going #1 and he's not going #2.

Logan Cooley to me, is reminiscent of a Mathew Barzal-type, but maybe slightly less dynamic. He's got 1C NHL upside which certainly makes him a top 7 pick in the draft. But he probably wasn't the best player on his own team this year, or on the USA U-18 team, and he's not the stratospheric raw upside guy (like Slafkovsky) who you ignore some of the "now" for in the hopes of a greater tomorrow.

The knocks against Shane Wright were that he did not statistically dominate in his draft-eligible campaign -- that's it. But he was still better statistically than Cooley. The knocks against Slafkovsky are usually with statistical analysis taken out of context or completely invented near-epithets about big, physical players ("he's slow"; "he's not smart").

So, I'm pretty much exhausted with the debate of whether Cooley is a top 2 pick in the 2022 draft. As great of a prospect as he is, any debate about Cooley should begin with: was he as important for the US-NTDP as McGroarty or Nazar or Howard? And then it should end with: he'll be a great pick for Arizona at #3 or Seattle at #4.

 

[Forge]

I am sure the Devils organization is deciding only between Slaf and Jiricek

Of course not...


That's why we included Nemec in the thread

 

[Nico Hischier]

I disagree with your gut lol. I also think Nemec is better and he currently seems to be a bit higher ranked. If we’re going with a D I’d go with Nemec.
But I think Slafkovsky is the best prospect and will be a very good player.

Also think it’s highly unlikely we take Jiricek. I’d say Slafkovsky, Cooley, Wright, and Nemec are all more likely to be our pick as of right now.

Jiricek could be more likely with a really strong World Championships. So far 2 games in he’s been decent. Some good and some bad. Has looked good on the powerplay and showed off his shot Game 1. Was more involved in the 3rd today and broke up a couple plays. He’s also had some turnovers though and was on for a couple goals today where I think he could’ve been a little better. Hasn’t been put under a ton of pressure defensively and when he’s had the puck. We’ll see how he does over the next 6-8 games.

So far I don’t think he’s shown enough to solidify himself as a top 5 pick or an actual contender who has a decent chance of being taken by the Devils at 2.

I do think nemec is a safe pick. I think sti said he has the highest floor. I also read somewhere that if jiricek didn’t get hurt this year and miss time, that he would most likely be the undisputed #2 prospect. It’s just my opinion and a gut feeling but I’m getting strong Kakko/patrick/Zacha bust type of vibes from slafkovsky. It’s ok to disagree I just hope we take a defenseman and jiricek is my guy. If they take nemec I would be happy too and seems like you would as well