Prospect Info: Devils Win #2 Overall -- Slafkovsky vs. Jiricek vs. Nemec

[Captain3rdLine]

Cooley’s not even my guy…



Ranking wise 2017 was definitely closer. That was razor thin. It did seem like we were taking Nico all along though

Lol that’s exactly what Copley’s mom would say. I think you’ve realized that Jiricek isn’t close to as big of a threat so you’re using him as your cover.

 

[Eggtimer]

The more I think about it , the more I can see the reasoning behind possibly trading down being a decent option. I’m not talking trading down much , 3 spots at the very most
If the Devils are very high but like all three of Slaf Jiricek Nemec almost identically , they should be able to get one at lower picks. I would be very confident that Cooley would be other teams behind us #1 target after Wright. Adding an asset to move down and still get one of Slaf Jiricek Nemec would be nice. All depends on how good that assets would be. I have no idea how good it could be.
Maybe it’s not good enough or worth it to risk not getting your #1 favourite guy .But like I said , maybe they are liking a few prospects almost equally then maybe it makes sense?
I can’t see any other team besides us take Slafkovsky for sure at 2 over Cooley ?? But do you want to take the risk / gamble on that. Maybe a bidding war starts for wanting Cooley so picks #3 / 4 /5 all make offers .
If the additional asset is like a B level prospect then screw it , use the pick at 2. If it’s a late 2nd rounder , same thing , screw it.
For me , the additional asset would have to be pretty sexy.

 

[Lou is God]

Eric Lindros with his head up

I would love for Slaf to be another Lindros but that's quite the tall order, before he got his concussions Lindros was an absolute tank on the ice that oozed talent, his simply did want he wanted dominating games.

 

[StevenToddIves]

The concern about Stillman is that he won’t be good enough to ever play on decent 3rd line in the NHL. That’s different.

The frustrating thing about the debate Slafkovsky’s production is he played so few games in each league every season who f***ing cares what the exact raw numbers are. Since when does raw production over 16 games or even 31 games tell you much of anything.

Advanced stats people are suddenly remarkably uninterested in all of the very positive underlying tracked stats for Slafkovsky.

I voted for Jiricek. I like Cooley. But if we want to play this game… Cooley was less productive than Alex Turcotte. Holy shit, you want to pick a guy worse than Alex Turcotte at 2OA!?!

I bet they aren’t just using raw totals for Cooley either (and they shouldn’t), but advanced stats for me and none for thee I guess.

And I don’t care. Whatever. I’m just thrilled we’re not picking 6th.

Stillman's upside is likely a 3rd liner, and his downside is likely a 4th liner. But my point is the Devils drafted for the bottom six at #29, and the same people who were screaming bloody murder about it are now saying "what's wrong with drafting a great 3rd line center at #2 overall? What about Pittsburgh with Jordan Staal?" I mean, there's an obvious difference in that Staal was an interior force who specialized in defensive play and face-offs and physicality which made him perfect for a 3rd line role, but people bend the narratives to fit their purposes.

I think you and I both have watched the US-NTDP to know that Cooley was not better than Nazar on the same team this year, and Nazar probably has more upside and a game which translates more easily into the NHL. But Cooley is absolutely still a terrific prospect in his own right as a slightly-less-dynamic Mat Barzal-type for whichever team drafts him.

However, this team will not be the Devils, and I'm not sure I even comprehend the argument among Devils fans that Cooley should be the guy. It's the #2 overall pick! The Devils are desperate for a power F for the top 6 and Slafkovsky will be sitting right there. The Devils are desperate for a 1RD and Jiricek will be sitting right there, as will Nemec. But the ancillary fans who did not know these prospects' names until the Devils won the #2 overall pick are now screaming for Cooley because, why? Some computer printout told them to? Because Slafkovsky and Jiricek are physical and they think hitting is bad? I don't even begin to comprehend it.

I still haven't voted, because I'm still split between Slafkovsky and Jiricek, as you probably know. But if the Devils go for a forward, it absolutely has to be Slafkovsky at #2, and to be honest there's not even another option there. He's precisely what the Devils need in their forward group, and every argument I've seen against him is silly bordering on the abjectly inane.

 

[theoptimist]

Is Slaf NHL ready or Devils 3rd line ready?

 

[Captain3rdLine]

Is Slaf NHL ready or Devils 3rd line ready?

Wouldn’t assume he is but wouldn’t be surprised if he was by September.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Is Slaf NHL ready or Devils 3rd line ready?

I'd give him one more year to develop, but I'd prefer it to be in the AHL.

 

[Hisch13r]

The more I think about it , the more I can see the reasoning behind possibly tradig down beimg a decent option. I’m not talkippng trwdig down much , 3 spots at the very most.
If the Devils are very high but like all three of Slaf Jiricek Nemec almost identically , they should be able to bet one at lower picks. I would be very confident that Cooley woild be other teams behind us #1 target after Wright. Adding an asset to move down and still get one of Slaf Jiricek Nemec would be nice. All depends on how good that assets would be. I have no idea how good it could be.
Maybe it’s not good enough or worth it to risk not getting your #1 favourite guy .But like I said , maybe they are liking a few prospects almost equally then maybe it makes sense?
I can’t see any other team besides us take Slafkovsky for sure at 2 over Cooley ?? But do you want to take the risk / gamble on that. Maybe a bidding war starts for wanting Cooley so picks #3 / 4 /5 all make offers .

Trading down obviously makes sense but there’s no one that’s going to trade up. Philly or Seattle would both be fine taking who falls. Arizona probably feels very confident we don’t take Cooley. I think Arizona really wants Cooley so the only thing we could really do is to take Cooley and force Arizona to give you 3+

Lol that’s exactly what Copley’s mom would say. I think you’ve realized that Jiricek isn’t close to as big of a threat so you’re using him as your cover.

Pheonix Copley? The Caps goalie?

 

[Captain3rdLine]

I'd give him one more year to develop, but I'd prefer it to be in the AHL.

I agree but if he came into camp and looked really good and ready, maybe they bring him right in. If they feel he can help the team win and he’s capable I don’t think it would be a bad decision.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Funny thing is we could've actually had a potential 3C last year at that 29th pick in Raty.

Raty would have been my likely pick at #29. But look on the bright side, we're really stacked at bottom 6 RW for the next decade-plus.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

Trading down obviously makes sense but there’s no one that’s going to trade up. Philly or Seattle would both be fine taking who falls. Arizona probably feels very confident we don’t take Cooley. I think Arizona really wants Cooley so the only thing we could really do is to take Cooley and force Arizona to give you 3+



Pheonix Copley? The Caps goalie?

Dammit

 

[StevenToddIves]

Not arguing with your point. I think Slafkovsky is the better prospect but if the Devils think Cooley is than they should take him and I’m okay with that.

But your point about Staal is not really true. If Staal played 20 minutes behind Crosby and Malkin, he must’ve been playing more than 1 or both of them and therefor wouldn’t have been their 3C. If your 3C plays 20 minutes then that technically means save the pp/pk having a huge affect that there is 40 minutes left to split between your other 3 centers.

Same thing with Nugent-Hopkins but as I’ve said before (don’t know if it was to you) but the Oilers have rarely actually run Mcdavid, Draisaitl, and RNH as 3 centers. Draisaitl has spent lots of time on the wing and RNH has as well. And whenever they possibly have there’s no way RNH has played 20 minutes. Just wouldn’t make sense.

Only 23 forwards average more than 20 minutes of TOI this season. Suggesting that RNH and Staal were playing 20 minutes per game as 3C’s is just not true. I have no problem with the actual point but don’t make up stuff that doesn’t make sense and isn’t really true to prove your point.

Stall had two seasons in Pittsburg where he average 20 minutes or more. In the first one Crosby, Malkin, and Staal all missed about half the season. Without even taking the time to look it up I think it’s a good bet that those injuries didn’t all line up so it’s probably fair to assume that a lot of if not all of Staal’s games were with at least one of them injured and therefor not as the 3C.
In his second season with that TOI (20:03) Crosby missed 60 games. Malkin only missed 7 and Staal himself missed 20. But that means that at least 40 of Staal’s 62 games were without Crosby in the lineup.

To be fair to you he wasn’t that far off in the seasons prior and it doesn’t look like Crosby and Malkin missed as much time but no 3C is actually playing 20 minutes in a game. If Staal ever played that much he was almost certainly playing more than one of the other two you mentioned and therefore wasn’t really playing like a 3C. The only thing that could maybe counter this is if he played a lot on the pp as the net front guy and/or a lot on the pk.

This post is kind of pointless but I just thought it was silly and annoying to see you suggesting that even a really good 3C is gonna play 20 minutes a night behind to superstar centers.



Mind you it’s probably worth adding that some of what I’ve brought up goes to your argument. If Nico or Jack get’s hurt which is going to happen lots I’m sure, it would be really nice to have another really good skilled player step in for them.
I would rather have a Cooley as a winger though as I think his skillset is very fitting as a winger. Much more so than Hughes or Hischier who I struggle to see on the wing. Similar to Mercer who I want as a winger but can step in as a Center in the case of an injury. So we already have that type of player but I see no problem with having two like that. Gives us lots of options.

I still like Slafkovsky more but I don’t think he should be chosen based off of being a better fit. If it comes down to it and they have the two players as equals they should take the player who is the better fit. But if they think Cooley is a better prospect than he should be the pick.

How many points do you think Slafkovsky would have scored if he were playing a top line role on the US-NTDP this year?

I just can't see watching both Slafkovsky and Cooley and saying Cooley is *notably better*. I can't see watching all the forwards in the 2022 class and not thinking Slafkovsky is not among the top handful in terms of upside -- I'd personally say he has the most.

I just don't see this discussion as a discussion. Logan Cooley is phenomenal, I love the kid -- but he's not Jack Hughes and he's not Trevor Zegras and, as far as his US-NTDP play goes, he's not even Alex Turcotte. You don't pass on a potential franchise power forward to cross your fingers that Cooley will be able to transition to LW or be happy in and adaptable to a 3C role.

 

[ChopRite]

Andrei Svechnikov played in the NHL at 18 and was smaller than Slafkovsky. Not to mention how many other kids make it at 18/19.

If a 6'4" 215 forward cant make the bottom-6 of a Metro-worst Devils team at 18 after going 2nd overall, Id have questions about the pick. Especially when his described game is tailor made for easing into the NHL.

 

[Poppy Whoa Sonnet]

Cooley’s not even my guy…



Ranking wise 2017 was definitely closer. That was razor thin. It did seem like we were taking Nico all along though

I remember that as Nico overtaking Patrick to be consensus 1 by draft day, but yeah Devils went with a razor thin consensus.

Hischier rides meteoric rise to top of TSN draft ranking - TSN.ca

The Swiss centre finishes atop TSN Hockey's Final 2017 NHL Draft Ranking, while Alberta Junior Hockey League defenceman Cale Makar emerges as the most intriguing prospect.

www.tsn.ca

FYI

Of the 10 NHL scouts surveyed for TSN's final set of ranking, five slotted Hischier as the top prospect in the draft; four designated Patrick as No. 1. One scout named defenceman Cale Makar of the Alberta Junior Hockey League's Brooks Bandits as the premier prospect, the first time this season someone other than Hischier or Patrick received a No. 1 vote.

 

[Hisch13r]

Andrei Svechnikov played in the NHL at 18 and was smaller than Slafkovsky. Not to mention how many other kids make it at 18/19.

If a 6'4" 215 forward cant make the bottom-6 of a Metro-worst Devils team at 18 after going 2nd overall, Id have questions about the pick. Especially when his described game is tailor made for easing into the NHL.

This is an incredibly dumb way to look at it. It’s not the size that matters. Svech was also a better prospect than Slaf and heavily challenges Wright for 1 if not outright passes him and goes 1 in this class

 

[Captain3rdLine]

Andrei Svechnikov played in the NHL at 18 and was smaller than Slafkovsky. Not to mention how many other kids make it at 18/19.

If a 6'4" 215 forward cant make the bottom-6 of a Metro-worst Devils team at 18 after going 2nd overall, Id have questions about the pick. Especially when his described game is tailor made for easing into the NHL.

It’s not just about whether he could though. You don’t necessarily want him in the bottom 6. It’s about what’s best for his development too.

 

[Cheddabombs]

Andrei Svechnikov played in the NHL at 18 and was smaller than Slafkovsky. Not to mention how many other kids make it at 18/19.

If a 6'4" 215 forward cant make the bottom-6 of a Metro-worst Devils team at 18 after going 2nd overall, Id have questions about the pick. Especially when his described game is tailor made for easing into the NHL.

I think it's less of a question of if he can, and more if it's the right thing for him. I'm sure he could step into our bottom 6 next year and be okay, probably not have a spectacular season but he'd survive.

But would it be better if he played somewhere else getting top line minutes? Maybe, probably IMO. I don't care what he, or whoever we draft, can do for us next year. It's all about the long haul.

 

[hidek91]

You could literally say this about anybody they pick. The simple fact is, Cooley offers us nothing we don't already have. How does he become a superstar and clear cut best player when he likely doesn't get a PP role that fits his strengths since we have two different options that are clearly better? That's the point. Unless we hit a dead end in contract talks with Jesper Bratt and there's no way he's coming back, there's no place for Cooley to become that "if" that you just described. There is a such thing as too much of the same thing.

This draft's forward crop is separated by a razor's edge from Slafkovsky to Nazar to Cooley to Savoie. When all things are equal, you absolutely take into account the needs of the team and the system. This idea that you just throw out need as if it plays no part in the evaluation process is just pure fiction and naive.

Regarding the first part, so are you saying that if Capitals were given a possibility to draft Ovechkin's literal clone, they should say "no, thanks" because they already have one Ovechkin in this spot? Nashville literally drafted Seth Jones into the logjam of D and fixed that by trading him for perceived young #1C Ryan Johansen. They had an enormous need for a center but still, they ignored their need because they believed Jones is a better prospect than Monahan or Lindholm.

Regarding the second part, this is like, all your opinion. If you believe that multiple prospects are equal, then of course, "a need" is the only thing separating them but:

1) I don't think that many people believe that Slafkovsky/Jiricek/Nemec/Cooley are equal (before even adding Savoie, Nazar to this crop). Judging by what people write here, most people prefer player X over player Y.

2) If you spend thousands or millions of US$ to run your scouting department, them coming back saying that "You know what, boss, Jiricek, Nazar, Cooley, Nemec, Slafkovsky are all entirely equal, pick up whoever fits the need." is absurd. IMO, "equal" prospects exist only in rationales of people who want to push the "team need" narrative. And that's fine, this narrative is fine for mock drafts (otherwise those would be rankings with players assigned to teams) and building a team on the forum, however in the real life, BPA works better because if you maximize value via draft, you can fix the team needs by trading value from the area of strength to the area of relative weakness.

 

[Hisch13r]

I remember that as Nico overtaking Patrick to be consensus 1 by draft day, but yeah Devils went with a razor thin consensus.

Hischier rides meteoric rise to top of TSN draft ranking - TSN.ca

The Swiss centre finishes atop TSN Hockey's Final 2017 NHL Draft Ranking, while Alberta Junior Hockey League defenceman Cale Makar emerges as the most intriguing prospect.

www.tsn.ca

FYI

It was Bob’s April rankings I believe where had to go through 23 scouts before he just called it and stop. It was 5-5 after his usual 10. Then he went through another 10 and it was 10-10 after 20. 21 was one of them. 22 was the other. 23 was one one of them and he just called it there.

 

[HBK27]

The more I think about it , the more I can see the reasoning behind possibly trading down being a decent option. I’m not talking trading down much , 3 spots at the very most
If the Devils are very high but like all three of Slaf Jiricek Nemec almost identically , they should be able to get one at lower picks. I would be very confident that Cooley would be other teams behind us #1 target after Wright. Adding an asset to move down and still get one of Slaf Jiricek Nemec would be nice. All depends on how good that assets would be. I have no idea how good it could be.
Maybe it’s not good enough or worth it to risk not getting your #1 favourite guy .But like I said , maybe they are liking a few prospects almost equally then maybe it makes sense?
I can’t see any other team besides us take Slafkovsky for sure at 2 over Cooley ?? But do you want to take the risk / gamble on that. Maybe a bidding war starts for wanting Cooley so picks #3 / 4 /5 all make offers .
If the additional asset is like a B level prospect then screw it , use the pick at 2. If it’s a late 2nd rounder , same thing , screw it.
For me , the additional asset would have to be pretty sexy.

From The Athletic:

By the numbers: Revisiting the true value of a draft pick

The NHL Draft isn’t nearly as random as the NFL’s, but there are inefficiencies that can be exposed and an opportunity to glean value.

theathletic.com

So, according to this chart dropping down from #2 to #5 would be worth the 19th or 20th overall pick.

Columbus has the #6 & #12 picks, but that would seem to be a bit of an overpay on their part and we'd run the risk of missing out on Wright/Slaf/Cooley/RD x2.

Maybe Arizona would offer a 2nd rounder to swap spots, but they most likely would be more than happy with Cooley whereas NJ doesn't seem like a destination for him.

Seems like it would be difficult to make any deal to drop back yet stay in the top 5. Arizona doesn't seem like they have to make a trade and Philly doesn't even have a 2nd round pick to offer. Plus it's Philly, so I don't see a deal there.

That leaves Seattle if they want to jump ahead of Arizona for Cooley. Would the #4, #35 & #99 picks get it done? According to the chart, that's roughly equal value. Seattle may not want to give up 3 picks, though they do have 3 late round 2nd round picks that could make giving up their own 2nd & 3rd round picks more palatable.

Hopefully Devils determine Slaf is the guy and just take him #2 overall.

 

[StevenToddIves]

This is a real tough choice. I've been looking over it a little bit.

Slafkovsky feels like a rebound girl. He does everything last year's team was unable to do and desperately needed at times. Menace on the boards. Moves the puck really quickly in tight along said boards. IMAGINE IF HE WAS ON LAST YEARS' TEAM?! You feel like you've just fallen in love. Then you realize this guy should be able to produce even if he had cement in his shoes and could only move from the boards to in front of the net. People are even bringing up additional skills he has that should allow for even more scoring. There is risk that isn't usually associated with a #2 overall.

Nemec is probably the best choice out of pure talent. However I'm struggling to project him as an NHLer. He lacks the shot to be the trigger man at the point and the traditional PP QB role that he'd fit into is no longer going to defensemen at the NHL level. No PP time puts a huge damper on projected NHL points. I've been down on these type of players the past couple years because you end up wanting for more. I imagine Provorov or even McDonagh where they play as a #1 on weak defense groups but you don't really want them in that role.

Jiricek is the opposite. You can easily project him into the top PP and be the big minutes eater #1 D. The issue is that he's a lot smaller than the NHL standard top players in the role. Chara is 6'9, Weber 6'5, Hedman 6'6, Burns 6'5. (Carlson is 6'3 so its not that far fetched though). Obviously he has a lot of work to do to get up to that level but its not completely out of the question.

I'd lean towards Jiricek but I'm not sold completely between any of them. They are all slam dunks at #5 but none of them are the sure bet superstar that is regularly available at #2.

There is no risk for Slafkovsky which is not risk for any prospect. He possesses outstanding intangibles and multiple elite tools, while having no glaring weaknesses.

Nemec is not the best out on the basis of pure talent, I'd say it's the opposite. Nemec is the lowest risk of all the top 5 candidates aside from Shane Wright, but his upside is not up to the immense level of Jiricek.

I do agree that Jiricek has a great argument at #2 overall for a litany of reasons.

 

[Poppy Whoa Sonnet]

If Zdeno Chara was a 5'11 defensmen, would people really think he was a good defensmen.

I'm guessing this is mocking my point? A lot of other people have responded, so I'll just make it clear I agree with everyone. I was just illustrating that his size is a big reason why he is the favorite to go 2, and a big reason why people here are salivating over NJ drafting him, and so this idea that they see 6' 4" on his player card and that's enough isn't what's going on but for all intents and purposes kind of is what's going on, given they trust and like what they see beyond that as being top 10 pick draft worthy.

 

[Devs3cups]

It was Bob’s April rankings I believe where had to go through 23 scouts before he just called it and stop. It was 5-5 after his usual 10. Then he went through another 10 and it was 10-10 after 20. 21 was one of them. 22 was the other. 23 was one one of them and he just called it there.

Yeah, the consensus this year is WAY clearer Wright is going 1OA, it just makes too much sense as a whole, and if not, that's a wrapped gift for us.

 

[ChopRite]

This is an incredibly dumb way to look at it. It’s not the size that matters. Svech was also a better prospect than Slaf and heavily challenges Wright for 1 if not outright passes him and goes 1.

Well thatd be a personal opinion.

Jesper Bratt made the team out of camp at 19 and got absolutely bullied in the physical game, along with Jack and Nico, in their reapective first and second seasons. Because they were light on the weight and light on their skates. They all managed to turn out just fine Id say?

Slafkovsky is listed at 215-220 and 6'4", so I have a hard time believing hed get bullied around. And if we are drafting him at 2nd overall, that means he has the skill level to keep up in a bottom-6 role at minimum, where guys usually develop until 24 just to put up 20pts in 82 games.

This is a 2nd overall pick were talking about, a supposed franchise player. If Slafkovsky needs to be held off for a year just to be introduced into a league where hes bigger at 18 than 80% of the talent, then Im not sure how I feel about the pick.

 

[Nicomo Cosca]

It’s not just about whether he could though. You don’t necessarily want him in the bottom 6. It’s about what’s best for his development too.

Right. Having to watch Jack drag Wayne Simmonds around on the 3rd line during his rookie season was torture.