GDT: Devils vs. Sabres - Match up Shenanigans

[glenwo2]

Gomer doing Postgame Analysis?

Maybe he's looking for another career?

 

[Hisch13r]

You can't play Hughes in the playoffs unless a starter AND Smith gets hurt, at least to start. If they need a spark and are down a few games or something? Sure, whatever, but to start game 1 of the playoffs you go with the usual 6.


This is insane tbh.

You can DEFINITELY play him over Smith.

I know it seems insane, but I would just play my best players. Hughes is very easily a better player than Smith. And Smith is better than Graves has been for the past 2 months.

I don't want to wait until we are in a hole to play our best players. We did that when we held out Bratt vs Tampa in 2018 and that didn't exactly work out.

I agree with the general point but lol Bratt was not making any real difference against that TB series. You could've added in current Bratt to that team and we're getting steamrolled.

 

[AfroThunder396]

Graves needs to get the hell off this team because I couldn't tell the difference between 33 and 43 all night

 

[Devilsfan992]

Was at the game last night. Great atmosphere. I really liked Woods game yesterday. Probably best game of the season for him. Overall, the team played great. Vitek was very solid outside on the 2nd goal allowed.

Also kind of messed up not to have Hughes as the number 1 star. The crowd wanted Hughes!

 

[Hisch13r]

Was at the game last night. Great atmosphere. I really liked Woods game yesterday. Probably best game of the season for him. Overall, the team played great. Vitek was very solid outside on the 2nd goal allowed.

Hard disagree with the team playing great. Vitek was great but the team was pretty awful for the first 40

 

[NjDevsRR]

Dano’s skin looks like it’s glowing. Do you think he has a secret?

Ohho, oh my. Let me tell you friend. This team is rejuvenating. Makes me feel like I’m in my 20s watching them! Now, with having said that. I do owe it all to Genucel facial scrub and cream. Oh yeah oh yeah.

 

[jkrdevil]

Not surprising the NHL would have the Devils/Rangers series slated to be day one. I wonder if we end up first we end up Tuesday and Carolina/Rangers is Monday

Boston will probably be the “prime” eastern game for night one of the playoffs as they are the biggest ratings drivers in the US. I would assume Toronto/Tampa starts Monday as well. Every series will have one two day break, so that could also line to series up for the Saturday primetime slot on ABC (Boston series) and Hockey Night (Toronto) in Canada.

I would expect a Tuesday start at this point (without looking into building conflicts). Though note one series on Tuesday will start at 6pm eastern.

 

[Devs3cups]

Hard disagree with the team playing great. Vitek was great but the team was pretty awful for the first 40

The 3rd period was very good against a desperate Buffalo team. If not for Vitek in the first 2, we probably lose. Feels good to have him save one a little bit.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

You can DEFINITELY play him over Smith.



I agree with the general point but lol Bratt was not making any real difference against that TB series. You could've added in current Bratt to that team and we're getting steamrolled.

Yeah we weren't winning that series, but the general premise is that leaving your best players off the roster because they are young and "its the playoffs" doesn't make much sense IMO.

Graves needs to get the hell off this team because I couldn't tell the difference between 33 and 43 all night

Only way I could tell the difference between Graves and Hughes was that one skates like Sasquatch stuck in syrup, while the other skates like he's not touching the ice.

 

[Devilsfan992]

Hard disagree with the team playing great. Vitek was great but the team was pretty awful for the first 40

May be the case of not taking in as many of the details watching on TV vs watching the game buzzed. I'll have to watch the extended highlights to see if my eye test failed.

 

[jkrdevil]

Boston will probably be the “prime” eastern game for night one of the playoffs as they are the biggest ratings drivers in the US. I would assume Toronto/Tampa starts Monday as well. Every series will have one two day break, so that could also line to series up for the Saturday primetime slot on ABC (Boston series) and Hockey Night (Toronto) in Canada.

I would expect a Tuesday start at this point (without looking into building conflicts). Though note one series on Tuesday will start at 6pm eastern.

Well scratch this. I see the Celtics are probably going Saturday/Monday at home, so that would mean Bruins start Tuesday. So if it is Devils/Rangers it looks like a Monday start. If we play the Panthers a Tuesday start most likely.

 

[Triumph]

Yeah we weren't winning that series, but the general premise is that leaving your best players off the roster because they are young and "its the playoffs" doesn't make much sense IMO.

Bratt was awful down the stretch and had never played that long of a season before. After the All-Star Break in 2018 he had 1 goal and 4 assists in 27 games with a 45% on-ice xG.

 

[Hisch13r]

 

[Devilsfan992]

May be the case of not taking in as many of the details watching on TV vs watching the game buzzed. I'll have to watch the extended highlights to see if my eye test failed.

I watched the extended highlights and I don't see awful for 40 minutes.

 

[Unknown Caller]

I watched the extended highlights and I don't see awful for 40 minutes.

They were not good for the first two periods. This is after the 2nd:

 

[Devils731]

View attachment 686639
Ohho, oh my. Let me tell you friend. This team is rejuvenating. Makes me feel like I’m in my 20s watching them! Now, with having said that. I do owe it all to Genucel facial scrub and cream. Oh yeah oh yeah.

Your version is much better than this AI version…but the AI version sounds just as bad as most of the radio reads so I guess the AI is ready for prime time.

 

[NjDevsRR]

I watched the extended highlights and I don't see awful for 40 minutes.

Devils definitely had a bad 10 min stretch in the 2nd period where Buffalo blitzed us. Besides that and a slow first ten mins of the game it was pretty even. Which is great, because they were fighting for their lives and throwing everything at us.

Edit: just saw @Unknown Caller post the xGf, which matches my eye test.

 

[Devilsfan992]

They were not good for the first two periods. This is after the 2nd:

I'll have to disagree. For one, Jonas goal was pretty much unstoppable. So only .16 goals expected besides that one? I get that the 1st goal was fluky, but the 3rd goal was legit. And we also hit the post in the 1st.

Even the Buffalo scoring attempts, I feel like most of them were in tight and I felt Vitek would make those saves 9 out of 10 times. Only the goal allowed and the one where Luke fell did I feel were really good chances.

 

[Guttersniped]

I know it seems insane, but I would just play my best players. Hughes is very easily a better player than Smith. And Smith is better than Graves has been for the past 2 months.

I don't want to wait until we are in a hole to play our best players. We did that when we held out Bratt vs Tampa in 2018 and that didn't exactly work out.

I don’t see Smith isn’t playing over Bahl. Ruff already said he got Smith a game in recently because injuries meant he could be playing in the playoffs and he didn’t want him coming in cold.

Ruff seems intrigued by Hughes and it’s understandable because of his skating and puck skills. Don’t see him just jumping into the top 6 though.

 

[Unknown Caller]

I'll have to disagree. For one, Jonas goal was pretty much unstoppable. So only .16 goals expected besides that one? I get that the 1st goal was fluky, but the 3rd goal was legit. And we also hit the post in the 1st.

Even the Buffalo scoring attempts, I feel like most of them were in tight and I felt Vitek would make those saves 9 out of 10 times. Only the goal allowed and the one where Luke fell did I feel were really good chances.

You're going to disagree with analytics? It's not like someone is subjectively generating the expected goals numbers based on their personal opinion.

 

[Triumph]

I'll have to disagree. For one, Jonas goal was pretty much unstoppable. So only .16 goals expected besides that one? I get that the 1st goal was fluky, but the 3rd goal was legit. And we also hit the post in the 1st.

Even the Buffalo scoring attempts, I feel like most of them were in tight and I felt Vitek would make those saves 9 out of 10 times. Only the goal allowed and the one where Luke fell did I feel were really good chances.

It wasn't unstoppable - it hit a Sabres player and went in off the post. It's a one in a hundred sort of shot. This is just where you and analytics part ways - if you can't see that something like Siegenthaler's shot going in is 'lucky' and is a low-xG chance, then it's only ever going to be there to validate your worldview when you see it the same way.

 

[Devilsfan992]

It wasn't unstoppable - it hit a Sabres player and went in off the post. It's a one in a hundred sort of shot. This is just where you and analytics part ways - if you can't see that something like Siegenthaler's shot going in is 'lucky' and is a low-xG chance, then it's only ever going to be there to validate your worldview when you see it the same way.

I apologize, I did not see Siegenthaler's shot was deflected. I thought it was a clean shot. No need to get snarky.

 

[glenwo2]

The 3rd period was very good against a desperate Buffalo team. If not for Vitek in the first 2, we probably lose. Feels good to have him save one a little bit.

I guarantee you if "another" goaltender (who shall remain nameless to preserve @Bleedred 's sanity) was in net, I don't think he would've fared as well as Vitek.

Just throwing that out there.

 

[HersheyBob27]

It wasn't unstoppable - it hit a Sabres player and went in off the post. It's a one in a hundred sort of shot. This is just where you and analytics part ways - if you can't see that something like Siegenthaler's shot going in is 'lucky' and is a low-xG chance, then it's only ever going to be there to validate your worldview when you see it the same way.

He walks into an open shot from the top of the circle and you actually believe that is a lucky goal?? He scores in that scenario way more than 1/100

 

[Triumph]

I apologize, I did not see Siegenthaler's shot was deflected. I thought it was a clean shot. No need to get snarky.

That's irrelevant to the general point, though - even big clappers from distance with a slight screen aren't very good scoring chances, though it's great when they go in.

He walks into a open shot from the top of the circle and you actually believe that is a lucky goal?? He scores in that scenario way more than 1/100

It's Jonas Siegenthaler. He has 7 career goals. So yes, he probably scores on that way more than 1/100 - maybe 5 in 100. The reason I downgraded it because there's a Sabre in front and that guy blocking the shot is the result most times. Whether you think it's 1, 5, or 10, the point is that an overwhelming majority of the time, that play doesn't result in an immediate goal.