Confirmed with Link: Devils trade 2nd and 4th rounders for Mirco Mueller and 5th rounder

[MadDevil]

What good is skating if you don't know where to skate?

Of course Merrill. He is a far better defenseman than Moore.

They're about the same IMO. Moore can do some things offensively, but is weak defensively. Merrill is better defensively but brings zero offense.




Cue a bunch of stat regurgitation...

 

[JimEIV]

Few things that I wanted to say to all people who defend this trade:

1) Of course, at the age of 22 d-men still have area to improve however nothing he has done so far indicates that he is likely to end up being NHL top 4 d-man.

2) Of course, he will play in the NHL for Devils next season but looking at our "defence", anyone with a little of free time could play there.

3) Losing 2nd round pick isn't the end of the world, more likely than not player we would have picked, wouldn't become top6 forward or top4 d-man but still if you're managing assets wisely you try to maximize return in every possible way. 2nd round pick isn't the most valuable asset we had but at the same time it's nothing to scoff at, I'd take 2nd round pick over half of our players.

4) Mueller isn't worth 2nd round pick (no matter if draft is weak or strong) in a vacuum however it only gets WORSE if you take into account following circumstances:
- he was expansion draft eligible which means that he costs protection slot, SJS would have to expose him for sure,
- he's waiver ineligible which, again, means that if Sharks didn't trade him, he would be waived in september, which means they HAD to trade him.

5) Protecting Mueller will likely cost us Merrill in the expansion draft so the cost of Mueller was 2nd round pick, worse pick in the mid-rounds of the draft and the difference between Merrill and player that would have been picked by LV if we protected Merrill.

To sum it up, I think we overpaid. 3rd round pick would be max that we should have paid.

Good analysis and I agree with everything...but

I still think everything is dependent on Mueller's​ ability. Maybe he's on the cusp of becoming a NHL regular? That doesn't dismiss the circumstances that you outlined perfectly but it does change the landscape quite a bit.

If we got a solid defender or a soon to be one the payment is not too much. If we got a guy who will be out of the league in two years... The cost was massive when you factor in those circumstances that you outlined.

You know Merrill put up .67 points per game in his limited 27 games in the AHL. Limited offensive ability defensemen still put up points in the AHL, especially on good teams. San Jose was a division leader. Mueller has put up .27 points per game in 124 AHL games.

I'm trying to find clips from Barracuda games now to formulate a better opinion but on paper it doesn't look that great right now.

 

[JimEIV]

They're about the same IMO. Moore can do some things offensively, but is weak defensively. Merrill is better defensively but brings zero offense.




Cue a bunch of stat regurgitation...

Why use facts when we can stick with board memes of good and bad, right

Moore is not that good offensively though. It be one this if he was a significant contributor but he is not and never had been He gives up much more than he generates.

 

[Zippy316]

Jim,

DevilsInsiders supposedly made a shift by shift of Muellers game against Detroit this past year. I didn't watch it yet but saw somewhere they captured all of his shifts and uploaded them.

 

[JimEIV]

Jim,

DevilsInsiders supposedly made a shift by shift of Muellers game against Detroit this past year. I didn't watch it yet but saw somewhere they captured all of his shifts and uploaded them.

Very cool. Thank you for the info!

 

[217 Forever]

It's fair to cite Mueller's lack of production in the AHL as a negative factor but having a defense without any openings TO win a spot in the first place isn't neccesarily something that should be held against him. Unless you thought it was a negative on Larsson that Lou stockpiled eight NHL defenders after the lockout and he got sent down when he could go through waivers and the others couldn't.

If a guy plays 39 games as a rookie but is barely a part of the team the next season that is a flat out problem. Unless there were extenuating circumstances like several regulars were hurt or whatever that means the player did not take advantage of the opportunity given to him. Teams generally don't give guys half a season to show what they can do if the intention is not for them to be a regular player.

 

[Zippy316]

 

[TheDuke93]

If the team did not see Merrill in the future everything about losing him means nothing.

 

[Zippy316]

If the team did not see Merrill in the future everything about losing him means nothing.

Yeah.

Since March of last year, we've added Kapla, Dyblenko, and now Mueller. I think it's clear the staff doesn't see Merrill as a piece moving forward.

 

[hidek91]

Good analysis and I agree with everything...but

I still think everything is dependent on Mueller's​ ability. Maybe he's on the cusp of becoming a NHL regular? That doesn't dismiss the circumstances that you outlined perfectly but it does change the landscape quite a bit.

If we got a solid defender or a soon to be one the payment is not too much. If we got a guy who will be out of the league in two years... The cost was massive when you factor in those circumstances that you outlined.

You know Merrill put up .67 points per game in his limited 27 games in the AHL. Limited offensive ability defensemen still put up points in the AHL, especially on good teams. San Jose was a division leader. Mueller has put up .27 points per game in 124 AHL games.

I'm trying to find clips from Barracuda games now to formulate a better opinion but on paper it doesn't look that great right now.

I didn't watch him in AHL but Sharks fans' opinions are similiar to those we had when Gelinas got traded to Avs, basically almost a bust, who got this kind of return only because he's a former 1st round pick. I don't believe that d-men (especially defensive) should be assessed by their point totals and other non-advanced stats but in my experience fanbases usually have good idea about their d-men, sometimes they overrated but almost always when fanbases say that d-man sucks, he sucks indeed.

Of course, I hope that I'm wrong and Mueller turns out to be top pair d-man but at this point I'm not very optimistic.

 

[Monsieur Verdoux]

I didn't watch him in AHL but Sharks fans' opinions are similiar to those we had when Gelinas got traded to Avs, basically almost a bust, who got this kind of return only because he's a former 1st round pick. I don't believe that d-men (especially defensive) should be assessed by their point totals and other non-advanced stats but in my experience fanbases usually have good idea about their d-men, sometimes they overrated but almost always when fanbases say that d-man sucks, he sucks indeed.

The difference here is that the Devils fans had multiple chances to see Gelinas in the NHL lineup before they formed their opinions. Most Sharks fans probably base their opinions on previous seasons, when Mueller was misused by coaches and GM. I doubt that many Sharks fans watch the Barracuda's games.

 

[JimEIV]

First impression from the first few minutes, Dylan DeMelo plays like a chicken with his head cut off. Tough partner to have.

 

[AfroThunder396]

Few things that I wanted to say to all people who defend this trade:

1) Of course, at the age of 22 d-men still have area to improve however nothing he has done so far indicates that he is likely to end up being NHL top 4 d-man.

2) Of course, he will play in the NHL for Devils next season but looking at our "defence", anyone with a little of free time could play there.

3) Losing 2nd round pick isn't the end of the world, more likely than not player we would have picked, wouldn't become top6 forward or top4 d-man but still if you're managing assets wisely you try to maximize return in every possible way. 2nd round pick isn't the most valuable asset we had but at the same time it's nothing to scoff at, I'd take 2nd round pick over half of our players.

4) Mueller isn't worth 2nd round pick (no matter if draft is weak or strong) in a vacuum however it only gets WORSE if you take into account following circumstances:
- he was expansion draft eligible which means that he costs protection slot, SJS would have to expose him for sure,
- he's waiver ineligible which, again, means that if Sharks didn't trade him, he would be waived in september, which means they HAD to trade him.

5) Protecting Mueller will likely cost us Merrill in the expansion draft so the cost of Mueller was 2nd round pick, worse pick in the mid-rounds of the draft and the difference between Merrill and player that would have been picked by LV if we protected Merrill.

To sum it up, I think we overpaid. 3rd round pick would be max that we should have paid.

Hmmm, so 14 spots in the middle of the draft is enough to change your opinion? An interesting thought.

 

[BenedictGomez]

Is relying on a player that played 4 games last season and a grand total of 54 career games to be an NHL regular a serious decision?

It seems like insanity to me?

Again, the issue is you're not understanding just how poor the Devils' defense is. Collectively, they're terrible.

If he's a guy who is more defensive than offensive, how well are his stats from the AHL really going to translate? Are there possession numbers from the AHL that people are looking at?

I dont even quite understand what exactly people are talking about when they point to his AHL stats. His negative plus/minus?

When you're evaluating young AHL forwards, look at stats.

When you're evaluating young AHL defenseman, look at how they're learning the position first, then stress out about stats later.

 

[BenedictGomez]

How is this a bad trade when the pick is a later 2nd round pick in a weak draft?

Exactly.

If Mueller really is NHL ready, as the Devils' scouts think he is, I'd gladly trade that 2nd round pick for a 22 year old defenseman who could play on your team for years, EVEN IF his ceiling is #4 - #6. It's an absolute no-brainer.

Mueller is 22 and hasn't cracked an NHL lineup

LOL.

You obviously don't realize it, but you're making an argument for why this wasn't a bad trade.

 

[ghdi]

I didn't watch him in AHL but Sharks fans' opinions are similiar to those we had when Gelinas got traded to Avs, basically almost a bust, who got this kind of return only because he's a former 1st round pick. I don't believe that d-men (especially defensive) should be assessed by their point totals and other non-advanced stats but in my experience fanbases usually have good idea about their d-men, sometimes they overrated but almost always when fanbases say that d-man sucks, he sucks indeed.

Of course, I hope that I'm wrong and Mueller turns out to be top pair d-man but at this point I'm not very optimistic.

Mueller played in 4 NHL games last season. 64 total since he was 18 years old. The last two years he's been under the thumb of Pete Deboer with better options ahead of a developing defenseman, which have been posted ad nauseam. They were a Cup finalist just last season.

Gelinas OTOH, had played in more than double that amount of games for us his entire time here, more than 150 total in NJ. He had a larger body of work to judge him on and most importantly, he was older than Mueller was when he started in the NHL. Obviously, he didn't take with the Avs so the "bust" (if you can call a 54th overall pick a bust) or "one-dimensional" label is most certainly permanent. Gelinas didn't play his first game in the NHL until he was 21 and turned 22 during his first full season. Mueller turned 22 in March of this year.

The comparison is not very fair. There is a huge difference between being an 18 year old defenseman and a 21-22 year old defenseman in the NHL, those few years of physical development are massive. Mueller has not gotten the chances that Gelinas had. This year will say a lot about what Mueller is or can be. He's clearly going to get the chance that he never got in SJ.

 

[BenedictGomez]

I think we overpaid. 3rd round pick would be max that we should have paid.

The regression analysis of NHL success, with success defined as the low bar of playing in >= 200 career NHL games, of that 2nd Round pick taken roughly at #49 versus that 3rd round pick taken roughly #63 is about 28% versus about 24%.

THE HORROR!!!!!!!!!!!!! Fire Shero!!!!!!!

For the 1,000th time, many people in this thread (and hockey fans in general) both overvalue draft picks, as well as lack an understanding of how similar a mid 2nd round pick is to a 3rd round pick in value.

NHL GMs, however, do not lack this understanding.

 

[JimEIV]

Again, the issue is you're not understanding just how poor the Devils' defense is. Collectively, they're terrible.

Your point makes little sense. Mueller makes the collective much worse. Even if he becomes something decent in the future there is no way he is there now. You stepped back on the development time curve probably by two years...This board can't handle the growing pains of a fantastic player like Severson who is offensively gifted, they never be able to handle one who is not.

And your 2nd round probability argument is a red herring as well. The probability of the 2nd becoming something is meaningless, not having a pick ensures 100% chance you'll get nothing. The real question is what did we get to forgo that chance? What is Mueller.

 

[217 Forever]

The same thing could probably be said about a fan who wants to discount virtually everything about a defenseman simply because of his age, as if every single player below a certain age will turn into an NHL player. How did Matt Corrente turn out for us? After all, he was a 1st round pick and was 22 years old at some point.

 

[SpeakingOfTheDevils]

I mean, at some point you just have to trust our management and our scouting department. I understand that some people will call it "blind trust," but, in my eyes, Shero has earned the benefit of the doubt.

There's no real debate to be had about the player until he plays a shift for us, so this back-and-forth is pretty pointless. The decision makers clearly see upside here, so let's just see how it goes.

 

[BenedictGomez]

Mueller makes the collective much worse.

Much worse? How exactly does the Devils' defense get "much worse" with Mueller versus Merrill? I mean, "much", really? I think "much" is a bit much.

I have literally zero confidence that Merrill, today at 25, is necessarily "much" better than Mueller, today at 22. We'll see.

Even if he becomes something decent in the future there is no way he is there now. You stepped back on the development time curve probably by two years...

Good! The Devils are a rebuilding team fairly early in the rebuilding process and light years away from winning. If the Devils' NHL scouts believe in him, why should this bother me?

The probability of the 2nd becoming something is meaningless, not having a pick ensures 100% chance you'll get nothing.

I hope you don't play blackjack.

 

[BenedictGomez]

How did Matt Corrente turn out for us? After all, he was a 1st round pick and was 22 years old at some point.

Thank you for helping make my point, Corrente is a wonderful example.

Matt Corrente was taken late 1st round, which is only about a 38% success rate. Numerically two rounds later, an early 3rd round pick is about 25% success rate. Big deal. You're overvaluing late 1st round picks as well as getting "hung up" on draft round number rather than pick number (which is far more important).

I mean, at some point you just have to trust our management and our scouting department.

Blasphemy!

Surely the average HFBoards keyboard jockey knows far more than NHL scouts, many of them former professional hockey players themselves.

 

[Wingman77]

Pretty much just Henrique

Clarkson, Sykora, Ponikarovsky, Zidlicky, Carter, Gionta, Bernier, Zubrus, Fayne all had some of their best seasons or resurgences under DeBoer.

 

[ghdi]

I mean, at some point you just have to trust our management and our scouting department. I understand that some people will call it "blind trust," but, in my eyes, Shero has earned the benefit of the doubt.

There's no real debate to be had about the player until he plays a shift for us, so this back-and-forth is pretty pointless. The decision makers clearly see upside here, so let's just see how it goes.

I agree with this entirely.

Until Mirco Mueller plays some games for us, this argument is a constant circle jerk. Those who think we got fleeced will continue to believe that and those that think its not a bad deal will also believe it. If it comes to pass that this was a bad deal, then most everyone will agree that it was not a good deal.

The bottom line is that the franchise believed it was worth making this deal and Mirco Mueller is a Devil. Root for him. No one can be proved right or wrong yet.

 

[hidek91]

Hmmm, so 14 spots in the middle of the draft is enough to change your opinion? An interesting thought.

If you're talking about 4th-5th round swap, it didn't change my opinion. It's negative factor but not the most impactful one.

However I think that you're talking about the difference between #49 and 3rd round pick. It's more than that given that we're 5th or 6th team to pick and yes, it is definitely enough to change my opinion.