Devils team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - season begins!

[TheUnseenHand]

View attachment 922403

Rather one great line and 3 meh than 2 mediocre and 2 meh ya know?

 

[JimEIV]

Goaltending is far less of a problem than poor team defense ... Zero forward support and terrible defensive lapses regularly

On a side note: You all thought I was nuts when I told you Nemec would be out of the lineup this season too. @SteveCangialosi123 said it would never happen.

I honestly think most people can't see poor or good defense...and if they can't validate either with a matrix it doesn't exists in their view

 

[kanucks25]

Apologies for the degenerate fantasy question but do you guys think Dougie's spot on the top PP is safe or does Luke have a chance to replace him?

I have both on my team right now and probably need to drop one lol.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

Goaltending is far less of a problem than poor team defense ... Zero forward support and terrible defensive lapses regularly

On a side note: You all thought I was nuts when I told you Nemec would be out of the lineup this season too. @SteveCangialosi123 said it would never happen.

I honestly think most people can't see poor or good defense...and if they can't validate either with a matrix it doesn't exists in their view

My bad, everyone could’ve seen Kovy being the best defenseman on the team and Nemec suffering a significant offseason injury that has clearly hampered him and caused him to play significantly worse than last season.

 

[Deviled]

Nemec needs to either be sent down or played nightly; this is not good for his development

A week isnt the end of the world but we are as healthy as we likely will be all season. If he hasn't gone down yet, when will he?

A 20 year old should be playing

 

[My3Sons]

Goaltending is far less of a problem than poor team defense ... Zero forward support and terrible defensive lapses regularly

On a side note: You all thought I was nuts when I told you Nemec would be out of the lineup this season too. @SteveCangialosi123 said it would never happen.

I honestly think most people can't see poor or good defense...and if they can't validate either with a matrix it doesn't exists in their view

You crawl around in the woods with a bow and arrow and need a microscope to make artificial bugs but sure it’s because of Nemec we think you are nuts.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

Goaltending is far less of a problem than poor team defense ... Zero forward support and terrible defensive lapses regularly

On a side note: You all thought I was nuts when I told you Nemec would be out of the lineup this season too. @SteveCangialosi123 said it would never happen.

I honestly think most people can't see poor or good defense...and if they can't validate either with a matrix it doesn't exists in their view

you're right about that one. Pot meet kettle.

the team defense overall this year has been BETTER than it was last year. Easily.

 

[TrufleShufle]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1850721238164844722

 

[RSeen]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1850721238164844722

Time to call up Foote? I think he can play C?

Nemec needs to either be sent down or played nightly; this is not good for his development

A week isnt the end of the world but we are as healthy as we likely will be all season. If he hasn't gone down yet, when will he?

A 20 year old should be playing

I tend to agree. Not sure he is going to beat out Kovacevic any time soon.

 

[None Shall Pass]

Could go 11-7 for the time being; give Nemec some reps and double shift the top-3 centers

 

[My3Sons]

Time to call up Foote? I think he can play C?


I tend to agree. Not sure he is going to beat out Kovacevic any time soon.

I’m skeptical anyone on Utica can fill an NHL center role

 

[Guttersniped]

He should be fired for that tie.

 

[R8Devs]

Nemec needs to either be sent down or played nightly; this is not good for his development

A week isnt the end of the world but we are as healthy as we likely will be all season. If he hasn't gone down yet, when will he?

A 20 year old should be playing

I think they have even more incentive to go 11-7 now with Lazar out, nothing really there in the AHL center wise - might as well double shift someone with Bastian and Tatar.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

the problem is that they're going out west for a week so they have to at least bring 1 forward from Utica

 

[JK3]

It’s going to be Willman or Bowers.

 

[glenwo2]

He should be fired for that tie.

A friggin' Crime against Humanity, I tell you.

 

[Zippy316]

I do wonder how the Devils are going to handle Lazar’s absence.

The center depth in this organization is not particularly pretty after the NHL team. Schmelzer, Bowers, and Dowling have seemed painfully mediocre in their limited NHL minutes or preseason. I guess they could give you 7-8 minutes a night, but can’t really expect much except to hope they don’t hurt you.

Wonder if the Devils try moving Cotter or Bastian to 4C so they could call up Halonen or Foote who may actually be able to contribute.

 

[NJDevs26]

Nemec needs to either be sent down or played nightly; this is not good for his development

A week isnt the end of the world but we are as healthy as we likely will be all season. If he hasn't gone down yet, when will he?

A 20 year old should be playing

You would think they learned something from the Holtz situation two years ago when Fitz admitted he made a mistake icing him in the press box for months. Especially since they have more hopes for Nemec than they ever really did with Holtz.

 

[billingtons ghost]

Does NJ give up bad looks at a much higher rate than other teams? I’m not being confrontational I’m genuinely curious. A couple of games this season have been scrambly but not all of them.

Rates don't matter. Quality of looks matter. I think everyone falls into this trap but if you could factor in Bayesian causality as to *why* a goaltender gives up a goal instead of of just counting how many shots are from this close or at this angle. I literally described l like ten specific nightmares above.

I don't care how many shots Eric Haula gets from a high danger chance area. I definitely care if Kane gets a wide open look in a slot or a turnover happens so quickly at our blueline to a sniper like Debrincat so I can't get set.

Or if I just got beaten bc Misyul doesn't cut the pass and the other defender doesn't lock up the guy he's on, in a 2-on 2 resulting in a backdoor pass. This stuff is a serious wrecking ball to goaltending confidence bc you can't rely upon your team to make an expected play.

So you guess or play deeper and just changes your game. Not only in a single game, but over multiple games

People are quick to say 'score effects' when the win o meter shows up odd in a blowout.

Where's the 'gave up 14 goals in your last two games' effects for goaltenders?

Stats are nice when they mean something, but there's no causality language being used in this math, and the fact is that goals and even shots are pretty low event.

I dont buy the: oh yeah our goalie coach said you should let those shots in argument against two vets.

Either Allen and Markstrom join the list of terrible goalies who just seemed to lose their game one day after putting on our jersey, or playing behind our sloppy team are struggling.

Does this team play like the 2022 team most nights? Or does this look more like last year?

 

[Devs3cups]

You would think they learned something from the Holtz situation two years ago when Fitz admitted he made a mistake icing him in the press box for months. Especially since they have more hopes for Nemec than they ever really did with Holtz.

It’s been three games. He’ll most likely go on the road trip and be sent down then is my guess. If he doesn’t play at any level for longer I’ll be pretty upset.

 

[billingtons ghost]

you're right about that one. Pot meet kettle.

the team defense overall this year has been BETTER than it was last year. Easily.

Lolz. That's damning with faint praise

 

[billingtons ghost]

Apologies for the degenerate fantasy question but do you guys think Dougie's spot on the top PP is safe or does Luke have a chance to replace him?

I have both on my team right now and probably need to drop one lol.

I think it depends on your fantasy scoring. I had both in a league that rewards goals 2x to assists so I had to drop Luke. If it's a keeper League, keep Luke. I don't know if they'd ever go so far as to replace Dougie on PP1 bc of his shot, but Keefe is a wildcard too. Did he give players a long leash in Toronto, bc Luke is going to need a long leash with his turnovers.

 

[NJDevs26]

Rates don't matter. Quality of looks matter. I think everyone falls into this trap but if you could factor in Bayesian causality as to *why* a goaltender gives up a goal instead of of just counting how many shots are from this close or at this angle. I literally described l like ten specific nightmares above.

I don't care how many shots Eric Haula gets from a high danger chance area. I definitely care if Kane gets a wide open look in a slot or a turnover happens so quickly at our blueline to a sniper like Debrincat so I can't get set.

Or if I just got beaten bc Misyul doesn't cut the pass and the other defender doesn't lock up the guy he's on, in a 2-on 2 resulting in a backdoor pass. This stuff is a serious wrecking ball to goaltending confidence bc you can't rely upon your team to make an expected play.

So you guess or play deeper and just changes your game. Not only in a single game, but over multiple games

People are quick to say 'score effects' when the win o meter shows up odd in a blowout.

Where's the 'gave up 14 goals in your last two games' effects for goaltenders?

Stats are nice when they mean something, but there's no causality language being used in this math, and the fact is that goals and even shots are pretty low event.

I dont buy the: oh yeah our goalie coach said you should let those shots in argument against two vets.

Either Allen and Markstrom join the list of terrible goalies who just seemed to lose their game one day after putting on our jersey, or playing behind our sloppy team are struggling.

Does this team play like the 2022 team most nights? Or does this look more like last year?

So now you're blaming Markstrom giving up a floater on the second or whatever shot of the game tonight on the fact he gave up a bunch of goals in his last two games - a few of them also on him? Then he's too mentally fragile to ever do the job. You always make the Devil defense sound like it's the worst in the league year after year by a mile to where it's such a unique challenge for any goalie in the league and it's just not the case.

Yes the Devils have generally had below average or worse defenses in the last several years (but not always). Plenty of other goalies in the league get that and make more saves than our guys do, and plenty of goalies get better defenses and don't make the saves. Goalies aren't an entirely dependent position the way you've made it sound from the minute Cory Schnieder stopped playing in the pipes, he's the only guy you ever held accountable for anything and everything in goal, since then it's all the D's/coaching fault. Neither is true, but when you only see our breakdowns on a nightly basis you lack context that other teams allow similar or worse breakdowns on a nightly basis as well, in games we aren't watching.

 

[MadDevil]

you're right about that one. Pot meet kettle.

the team defense overall this year has been BETTER than it was last year. Easily.

No, see what you don't get is that no stat or model accurately takes into account the amount of or type of uniquely dangerous chances that the Devils give up. Markstrom might have been good against Calgary Flames high danger chances against, but nobody stands a chance against New Jersey Devils high danger chances against. It's honestly mind boggling how nobody except like 2 posters on a message board have figured it out.

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

Goaltending is far less of a problem than poor team defense ... Zero forward support and terrible defensive lapses regularly

On a side note: You all thought I was nuts when I told you Nemec would be out of the lineup this season too. @SteveCangialosi123 said it would never happen.

I honestly think most people can't see poor or good defense...and if they can't validate either with a matrix it doesn't exists in their view

Or maybe they can do their jobs for once, elite goalies bail out their teams consistently. Also Nemec has been bad this year which I think is more him not being recovered from his injury in the game before the year, congrats on batting 1/1000 I guess.