Devils team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - part VI

[Jason MacIsaac]

Completely ridiculous - the Devils are on a back to back playing a shitty opponent last night while facing their division rival tonight. Shortening the bench is a horrible idea. If anything, the lines didn't roll enough.

You aren't understanding what I was saying. Stop rolling the lines doesn't mean shorten the bench, it means to use each line in the role they are suited for. If the opponents 4th line is out, roll the Devils 4th line. If opponents top line is out, match Hischier against them, if the opponents top line has been out for a bit, try to get Hughes line out there to pin them. These are basic coaching concepts that Ruff doesn't bother with. He doesn't try to hide the 4th line and it is to their detriment of the team.

 

[Triumph]

You aren't understanding what I was saying. Stop rolling the lines doesn't mean shorten the bench, it means to use each line in the role they are suited for. If the opponents 4th line is out, roll the Devils 4th line. If opponents top line is out, match Hischier against them, if the opponents top line has been out for a bit, try to get Hughes line out there to pin them. These are basic coaching concepts that Ruff doesn't bother with. He doesn't try to hide the 4th line and it is to their detriment of the team.

This philosophy has never made any sense to me, especially on the road - it means constantly pulling lines off the ice and letting the opposing coach dictate what line of yours plays when. The Devils are a better team than Montreal - they should not worry about matchups. Ruff should try not to send out certain lines for d-zone draws and send the best line available out against tired defenders after icing. Other than that, let guys get into a flow - if that's a problem, change up the lines.

If you don't hide the 4th line, it means that you get to go against their 4th line with a better line, or they start hiding their 4th line, and now you're only going up against 9 forwards. I don't find this exploitable.

I've felt this way long before analytics - I didn't understand why Lemaire did it in 98 - and I haven't seen anything in that sort of analysis to change my mind.

 

[PWiz30]

I don't think enough has been said about how we somehow managed to keep the best power forward in the NHL, Josh Anderson, off the scoresheet last night.

 

[billingtons ghost]

You aren't understanding what I was saying. Stop rolling the lines doesn't mean shorten the bench, it means to use each line in the role they are suited for. If the opponents 4th line is out, roll the Devils 4th line. If opponents top line is out, match Hischier against them, if the opponents top line has been out for a bit, try to get Hughes line out there to pin them. These are basic coaching concepts that Ruff doesn't bother with. He doesn't try to hide the 4th line and it is to their detriment of the team.

Meh. 1. We don't possess a matchup line. 2. We are on the road so it's tough to get the matchup you want without the last change.

You're worried about the fourth line but I am more worried about the other lines.

Hughes's line got penned in and really have to the best chances against Suzuki.

I think we're fine with rolling lines, esp since the fourth line really did well yesterday and produced the first goal.

 

[NHL Fanatik]

@NJDevs26 His agent really wants Bratt to leave the Devils, doesn't he?

Anyway, he personifies what I've been saying about agents in general.

They are NOT your friend.

They work for you but at the end of the day, they are after the highest commission they can get.

Unfortunately if Bratt doesnt end up signing with us it means he also didnt have a strong desire to stay here

The agent can be a douche and be the ones giving us problems, but if thats the case then clearly Bratt is agreeing with the idea of it and doesnt have to stay in NJ to be happy

Which is totally fair btw and I wouldnt hold it against Bratt. The only thing thats ever bothered me about Bratt was that he was a sixth round pick and we sort of made him who he is by giving him tons of chances; and he doesnt reward that effort with even a solid bridge or mid-term deal

Other than that Jesper will always be remembered fondlu if he leaves. That breakout game against Buffalo on a line with Marcus Johansen was legendary

 

[billingtons ghost]

The thing is analytics of the last 20 games say what people are describing here.

Bratt’s produced a ton of scoring chancing but no one has giving up more high grade scoring chances against 5v5. A bunch ended up in the net and Ruff is responding to that.

Now we live in a society, if I was going to do a deeper dive I would look at lines and the defensive pairs they play with.

That said, people are flat out wrong to blame this on Timo and Bratt’s numbers sucked in the four games Jack was out.

Also with Jack, one of these players is turning 22 in May and the other is turning 25 in July, I have different expectations here.

Being a scoring winger doesn’t mean your two-way play doesn’t matter at all.

Bratt can do better than this and he needs to because this is big boy hockey and good finishing teams in the playoffs will feast on this.

Ruff can’t just let them do whatever they want out there if these are the results.

This is why Holtz is the AHL, Shara is the press box and Bratt is on the 3rd line.

I can assure everyone Ruff isn’t some wacky contrarian who likes less production. Boqvist isn’t a 1st line forward, though he’s doing an admirable job keeping up.

He’s trying to fix this problem. We won yesterday and our playoff spot is pretty much assured. I don’t have any complaints because I see the problem he’s trying to fix.

Brilliantly said. Great post.

 

[NHL Fanatik]

Meh. 1. We don't possess a matchup line. 2. We are on the road so it's tough to get the matchup you want without the last change.

You're worried about the fourth line but I am more worried about the other lines.

Hughes's line got penned in and really have to the best chances against Suzuki.

I think we're fine with rolling lines, esp since the fourth line really did well yesterday and produced the first goal.

I think Hischier's line or the third line can be labeled as matchup lines. Both are defensively responsible and get after it on the forecheck

 

[billingtons ghost]

I just looked at our schedule, and we play Tampa three times in the next week?!? What is this, an MLB schedule?

Spring break baby. (In Jack's voice)

 

[NJDevs26]

You aren't understanding what I was saying. Stop rolling the lines doesn't mean shorten the bench, it means to use each line in the role they are suited for. If the opponents 4th line is out, roll the Devils 4th line. If opponents top line is out, match Hischier against them, if the opponents top line has been out for a bit, try to get Hughes line out there to pin them. These are basic coaching concepts that Ruff doesn't bother with. He doesn't try to hide the 4th line and it is to their detriment of the team.

If anything Ruff line matches too much at home, it’s one big reason they sometimes struggle there and kill it on the road

 

[billingtons ghost]

I think Hischier's line or the third line can be labeled as matchup lines. Both are defensively responsible and get after it on the forecheck

Do you want to take our best offensive line and make them a shutdown line?

Maybe that works against Montreal and one line teams like EDM, but I sure don't know what line you would match up against when we play any of the top teams in the east.

If anything Ruff line matches too much at home, it’s one big reason they sometimes struggle there and kill it on the road

I was thinking of our 'too many men' penalties too.

Ironically for the OP, the fourth line with McLeod is Ruffs matchup line of choice, so....

None of our lines really have that true shutdown player, much less full line of defensively capable guys. Bratt is on the 3rd line to counterbalance his deficiencies.

 

[Devils Pride 26]

This philosophy has never made any sense to me, especially on the road - it means constantly pulling lines off the ice and letting the opposing coach dictate what line of yours plays when. The Devils are a better team than Montreal - they should not worry about matchups. Ruff should try not to send out certain lines for d-zone draws and send the best line available out against tired defenders after icing. Other than that, let guys get into a flow - if that's a problem, change up the lines.

If you don't hide the 4th line, it means that you get to go against their 4th line with a better line, or they start hiding their 4th line, and now you're only going up against 9 forwards. I don't find this exploitable.

I've felt this way long before analytics - I didn't understand why Lemaire did it in 98 - and I haven't seen anything in that sort of analysis to change my mind.

If you’re not paying attention to matchups AND not constructing lines properly, you end up with Hughes and Bratt out there vs Mathews nursing a one goal lead with 5 to play. There’s a time and place to play the matchup game. First minute of a period, last 3 minutes of a period. Protecting a one goal lead late.

It’s malpractice to ignore that, just as it’s malpractice to run Madden, Pandolfo, and Shanny out there vs Staal in 09 every single time. Let balance and logic dictate when to matchup.

 

[Devils Pride 26]

Do you want to take our best offensive line and make them a shutdown line?

Maybe that works against Montreal and one line teams like EDM, but I sure don't know what line you would match up against when we play any of the top teams in the east.


I was thinking of our 'too many men' penalties too.

Ironically for the OP, the fourth line with McLeod is Ruffs matchup line of choice, so....

None of our lines really have that true shutdown player, much less full line of defensively capable guys. Bratt is on the 3rd line to counterbalance his deficiencies.

Yes, yes I do. They are an elite counter attack line. Again, to use the example from before, this isn’t Madden in 09 trying to keep up as Staal plays the whole shift in their end.

The best checking line are lines that can FOREcheck. Get the puck in deep and cycle it. Bring the other teams 1s deep in their zone and force them to roll around in the mud. They can play the oz well, and are a threat to pick off passes in the nz and dz and put them in the back of the net.

When DeBoer threw Elias and Zubrus out there vs other teams 1s in the 2012 run, they did a lot of good

 

[NHL Fanatik]

Do you want to take our best offensive line and make them a shutdown line?

Maybe that works against Montreal and one line teams like EDM, but I sure don't know what line you would match up against when we play any of the top teams in the east.


I was thinking of our 'too many men' penalties too.

Ironically for the OP, the fourth line with McLeod is Ruffs matchup line of choice, so....

None of our lines really have that true shutdown player, much less full line of defensively capable guys. Bratt is on the 3rd line to counterbalance his deficiencies.

but if a line like Tatar-Nico-Mercer isnt a matchup vs top lines then who does have a matchup line besides Bergeron's line in Boston?

 

[billingtons ghost]

Yes, yes I do. They are an elite counter attack line. Again, to use the example from before, this isn’t Madden in 09 trying to keep up as Staal plays the whole shift in their end.

The best checking line are lines that can FOREcheck. Get the puck in deep and cycle it. Bring the other teams 1s deep in their zone and force them to roll around in the mud. They can play the oz well, and are a threat to pick off passes in the nz and dz and put them in the back of the net.

When DeBoer threw Elias and Zubrus out there vs other teams 1s in the 2012 run, they did a lot of good

You make some good points, but it's it worth it to not just roll the lines? I'm ok if Nico's line pins their best MTL offensive line in their own end, but when it's against Matthews and Marner like the other day, I'm not sure we get on the forcheck as much as we'd like, as our team has had trouble getting out of our own end at times against bigger stronger teams.

Idk.

 

[billingtons ghost]

but if a line like Tatar-Nico-Mercer isnt a matchup vs top lines then who does have a matchup line besides Bergeron's line in Boston?

That's part of my point - I think on the best teams there's usually a question of which line we would even choose to shut down.

I think when Ruff tries to match lines we end up with lots of icetime for McLeod, and in think that's suboptimal.

 

[NHL Fanatik]

You make some good points, but it's it worth it to not just roll the lines? I'm ok if Nico's line pins their best MTL offensive line in their own end, but when it's against Matthews and Marner like the other day, I'm not sure we get on the forcheck as much as we'd like, as our team has had trouble getting out of our own end at times against bigger stronger teams.

Idk.

That would just be a case of matching up versus a better line. Odds are your matchup line wont be the best in the playoffs as well (unless its this years Boston line) so yeah, sometimes theyll be outmatched.

But its better than Matthews and Marner vs Bratt and Jack or the 4th line. Boqvist-Haula-Bratt would maybe be quite the forechecking line, just off the top of my head

That's part of my point - I think on the best teams there's usually a question of which line we would even choose to shut down.

I think when Ruff tries to match lines we end up with lots of icetime for McLeod, and in think that's suboptimal.

I think thats just Ruff's older hockey mind at play with the fourth line infatuation. But I also think McLeod is capable of being on a very solid fourth line defensively. I dont think Wood fits that bill and personally idt Bastian is better than McLeod defensively as his advanced metrics suggest

 

[Devils Pride 26]

If you’re not paying attention to matchups AND not constructing lines properly, you end up with Hughes and Bratt out there vs Mathews nursing a one goal lead with 5 to play. There’s a time and place to play the matchup game. First minute of a period, last 3 minutes of a period. Protecting a one goal lead late.

It’s malpractice to ignore that, just as it’s malpractice to run Madden, Pandolfo, and Shanny out there vs Staal in 09 every single time. Let balance and logic dictate when to matchup.

Hischier and Haula back to back to close the period. Lindys in the zone!

 

[Jason MacIsaac]

Hischier and Haula back to back to close the period. Lindys in the zone!

It's great situational coaching. Key moments require certain players/lines on the ice. We give up far too many late period goals, ni e to see the right guys out there to survive the push.

 

[HischierSeDgewOrk]

What % of his new salary does bratt give to jack?

 

[Devils Pride 26]

For the second period, wasn’t a fan of the Hughes shift with 1:20 to go. You’re up 3-0. Play low event. Survive the period again. Didn’t cost us but it will

 

[DerekDevils30]

For the second period, wasn’t a fan of the Hughes shift with 1:20 to go. You’re up 3-0. Play low event. Survive the period again. Didn’t cost us but it will

Join us in the GDT

 

[Devils Pride 26]

Join us in the GDT

Thought about it, but wanted to include that here since it was a recent topic of discussion. Easy to get lost in gdt

 

[Billdo]

I'm glad I wasn't wrong. We're a plus 58 in goal diff. Second highest in the league and we'd be first if not for Boston's insane differential.

 

[NjDevsRR]

Jack on pace for 99 pts (105 if he didn’t miss those games)

 

[Comparison Ford]

Jack on pace for 99 pts (105 if he didn’t miss those games)

really would be a perfect regular season if he can get to 100 points