Devils team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - part VI

[Bleedred]

I don’t actually care about 4th liner point production, as long as those guys go out there and prevent chances against in limited minutes. It’s when you can’t manage that and also can’t score that I get annoyed.

I would say a lot of that is Wood is a drain.

I don't think McLeod is really all that good defensively, but I don't think he's the worst either.

I think Bastian is better than both of them.

 

[MasterofGrond]

Yeah wood is an anchor, but a good center should be able to carry an anchor a little bit especially if the other winger is good defensively

 

[HBK27]

That's kind of why I don't care for the Lazar thing, as I think everyone on the 4th line right now (and everybody's who's been a regular) is better than Lazar and I see no need to touch the forwards right now, unless guys need rest and days off.

Lazar should absolutely be our #14 forward at this point and shouldn't sniff the playoffs unless there are injuries.
I wouldn't necessarily mind seeing them work him into a few games down the stretch - though that largely depends on the health of the forwards, how the fringe guys are playing and how things are looking with the division title.

The trade made sense to me as insurance depth at forward. We have a solid group of 13 forwards, but after that I'm not sure who else Ruff would really trust in the playoffs as there's a massive drop off in NHL experience from Sharangovich/Boqvist (191/171 NHL games played) to Holtz who has the next most NHL experience out of any available player at just 28 games while averaging less than 11:00 a game.

Lazar has played nearly 500 NHL games, including 24 playoff games the past 2 seasons with the Bruins, is still relatively young at 28 and is by all accounts a very well liked teammate. Should be a great addition for the locker room. On the ice, he shouldn't hurt you. He's apparently solid defensively, can play C or RW and is good at faceoffs. If a couple of guys are injured, you can put him on the 4th line and bump somebody up. Not sure if the extra years on his contract is good or bad, but we'll see how that all shakes out next season. For a 2024 4th rounder though, I thought it was a good move.

 

[Guttersniped]

I think a significant silent majority agree with you.
As far as consistent contributers go, he might be out best value on the team. I think the folks that rage against 4th liners don't understand what they bring to the team.

However, I think The question is always: can you bring in a young guy from the minors to step in and replace him and bring what he brings in addition to a higher ceiling. Some think the answer is 'yes'...but you only have to watch Thompson or Foote play a game to realize that isn't the case and they are a big step down.

McLeod has been steadily improving all aspects of his game and is becoming a bargain at $2m.

The one fly in the ointment is his involvement in that scandal, and I can understand if folks want nothing to do with him. From a pure hockey standpoint it would be stupid to let him walk.

I don’t know what will happen with McLeod, which is pretty typical with lower end arbitration eligible RFA forwards.

What’s up with the Hockey Canada case?
What’s the team’s plan with bottom six centers?
How much could McLeod get in an arbitration hearing?

The board undervalues, and often dumps on, bottom six and defensive forwards. They don’t care about PKers *sob*.

The board also may not care that McLeod is a right-handed center who is 59.9% at face-offs but the team clearly does. Lazar said he wanted to pick up face-off tips from McLeod in his post-trade interview, he’s exceptionally good at it.

I do at least like his approach to shooting the puck a bit more this season than last year.

Spoiler: McLeod Shots & Finishing 5v5 last 3 years

2020-21

2021-22

2022-23

In 2020-21, there was luck involved when he went on 5v5 shooting bender (15.79%) to get 9 5v5 goals in 52 GP.

But you can see he got shots while going harder to the net way more that season than last year.

He’s doing that more this season, it does look like he’s been a little unlucky. He‘s more productive when he plays to his strengths which is muscling to the net.

Spoiler: McLeod’s Individual Stats for last 3 years

His underlying 5v5 numbers tend to not be great, in part because they tend to fluctuate a ton.

Now most Devils forwards has been at least a little inconsistent this season. I broke down the season month by month here.

Spoiler: Forwards’ GF% & xGF% by month

*Minimum 25 Total Ice Time*
OCTOBER 13th to NOVEMBER 13th

NOVEMBER 13th to DECEMBER 13th

DECEMBER 13th to JANUARY 13th

JANUARY 13th to FEBRUARY 13th

FEBRUARY 13th to MARCH 7th

And here’s the season broken up around the brutal stretch from mid-December to break at the end of January.

Spoiler: The Middle Not as Good Part

NOT GREAT BOB:
DECEMBER 15th to JANUARY 27th

THE BEFORE:
OCTOBER 13th to DECEMBER 14th

AFTER THE BREAK:
FEBRUARY 6th to MARCH 7th

*TL/DR: Even if people want to ignore the McLeod stuff, the breakdowns of the season might interest some. It took me so long (too long) so I don’t have time to comment on it myself.*

 

[Billdo]

Yes, repeatedly.

Jesus

 

[Mgd31]

How much grinding does this thing need? Holy shit.

 

[Darkauron]

I wouldnt be suprised if it was Bratts camp just sitting on it and not doing anything like last time

 

[Triumph]

How much more do people really expect from fourth liners? Even when we were regularly winning divisions in the mid 2000’s our bottom guys were nothing more than plugs. With the exception of Carter-Gionta-Bernier, this is the best fourth line we’ve had post-lockout.

The Devils mostly went with minimum salary players on those fourth lines and didn't use them very often, but also critically that's what a lot of other teams were doing too. Most teams still had a goon back then, and the Devils almost always did as well.

People here obsess way too much over the 4th line, but the Devils are currently paying a guy a 3rd line rate to play there, and McLeod and Bastian figure to be reasonably well-paid 4th liners next year.

 

[billingtons ghost]

Yes, repeatedly.

Like who? Like what?

 

[MartyOwns]

live look at bratt’s camp passing around fitz’s last offer

 

[Bleedred]

Oh god, the Palat signing thread on the trade/signings board was bumped lol.

 

[Devs3cups]

How much grinding does this thing need? Holy shit.

At least the process started early this year lol. Expecting something gets done.

 

[bossram]

I don't see any issue with bringing McLeod back as the 4C, provided they keep the cost reasonable (under $1.8M million). I don't think he's exceptional, but he's a 4th liner. And he has PK + faceoff utility. He has the wheels to fit with the Devils' style. Mikey and Bastian should be two-thirds of a competent 4th line.

If they try to look for a 4C on the UFA market, there's not really much better. And certainly not cheaper. Kampf and Acciari are interesting but I think they'll be demanding more money. Bjugstad will get more. Then there's the Lars Eller/Nick Bonino veteran "tier", which is more likely to come at a low price.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Remember guys. Any goal called back tonight, the Toronto fans will back because they believe in the impeccable quality of NHL refereeing and the integrity of the game. That is, unless a goal is called back on them, in which case it's a conspiracy and the worst call ever.

 

[Guttersniped]

The 17-18 4th line was pretty good.

I think it was kind of a revolving door, but I remember being pretty happy with the bottom 6 production that year, which was something I was not happy with the year before, nor the year or two after that.

Now some guys definitely overachieved and had career years, like Brian Gibbons, Brian Boyle probably scored at a better clip than he usually would have at that point in his career. Noesen had a good year. Coleman had a really good rookie year. Miles Wood had a pretty good year and scored over 30 points and came close to 20 goals. Stafford started the season good and looked like he could have scored 40-45 points that year, but he fell off around November-December from what I remember and stunk the rest of the year (outside of the shootout) as well as the next year when he came back yet again.

I remember there being a lot of guys in the bottom 6 that either scored 25-30 or more points or paced for it, but missed games.

We had good scoring depth that year from the bottom-6 besides just Hall killing it and winning the MVP.

That's kind of why I don't care for the Lazar thing, as I think everyone on the 4th line right now (and everybody's who's been a regular) is better than Lazar and I see no need to touch the forwards right now, unless guys need rest and days off.

Don't get me wrong, Wood is still a bit of a drain and I don't want him back under any circumstances and I wish he was not immune to healthy scratches, but his overall point production, along with McLeod's and Bastian's are all more than acceptable for the 4th line.

Shero signed Boyle to a 2 year/2.55m deal on July 2017, when the cap was 75m.

The equivalent deal under a 82.5m cap is 2.8m. So we paid for that.

We had an excellent bottom 6 in 2017-18, it was one of the team’s big strengths, along with its top line.

Unfortunately there was no real 2nd line, particularly after we shipped off Henrique to fix another big weakness, the defense. We had a bunch of nice bottom six guys, we needed top six wingers not named Hall or Palmieri.

Lazar is 1m back-up center. Injuries happen,

You need centers on every line, and realistically speaking, we don’t have a single call-up in Utica capable of playing center in the NHL.

 

[billingtons ghost]

I would say a lot of that is Wood is a drain.

I don't think McLeod is really all that good defensively, but I don't think he's the worst either.

I think Bastian is better than both of them.

guy has been on a ppg pace and playing some of his best hockey since being absolute dogshit for a few months. Might be time to give the schtick a rest. That line is starting to look better each game. You're right about Bastian tho.

 

[Bleedred]

guy has been on a ppg pace and playing some of his best hockey since being absolute dogshit for a few months. Might be time to give the schtick a rest. That line is starting to look better each game. You're right about Bastian tho.

Color me skeptical that it continues for Wood.

I’ll gladly take any contributions he has the remainder of the season but after this season? Hit the road Jack.

Or Miles.

 

[Billdo]

I love Bratt, he's a stud, but I'm starting to think he doesn't want to sign an extension. I can't imagine Fitz is THAT far off with market value.

 

[Emperoreddy]

At least the process started early this year lol. Expecting something gets done.

It will get done

 

[Xirik]

Smart Lady and being able to pick Fitz's brain makes me very confident that she will go far in this league.

Go Kate!

 

[Clam Jensen]

Smart Lady and being able to pick Fitz's brain makes me very confident that she will go far in this league.

Go Kate!

She’s great, the devils daily guys had a solid interview with her late last year.

 

[PKs Broken Stick]

It's good for him, for now, but not sure how long he can last on a roster this talented over time.

This doesn't even make sense. You can't have a roster full of superstars. Bastian (if he's cheap) is a great way to stay under the cap. He's a good 4th liner.

Doesn’t score enough to get overpaid.

I've said a million times that I'm all for keeping him, if he doesn't demand to be overpaid.

 

[devilsblood]

I've said a million times that I'm all for keeping him, if he doesn't demand to be overpaid.

Homie I’m with ya

 

[Emperoreddy]

 

[KovalchukFistPump]

Oh god, the Palat signing thread on the trade/signings board was bumped lol.

There's a chance that the signing burns us in Year 5 (or Year 4), after LHughes, Nemec, and Mercer all have gotten their raises. I didn't realize that the deal did include a modified no-trade (10 teams that he gets to submit every year), which will make trading him to an Arizona a little more complicated.

for now and the next two years he will be an important veteran piece for this young team though. You could tell last game that he's the kind of guy that can get a line of the Haulas and Boqvists to put up points.