Devils team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - part VI

[NHL Fanatik]

Buddy and me were debating if Nemec would ever be moved for a top-2 goalie prospect outside the league/on an ELC

I think Nemec will be an all around two way top pair dman but man a young starting goalie would go a long way.

Curious what others think or if theres even any goalie prospects that fit the bill. And I dont actually want to trade him btw!

 

[PizzaAndPucks]

Buddy and me were debating if Nemec would ever be moved for a top-2 goalie prospect outside the league/on an ELC

I think Nemec will be an all around two way top pair dman but man a young starting goalie would go a long way.

Curious what others think or if theres even any goalie prospects that fit the bill. And I dont actually want to trade him btw!

If Nemec were moved for a goalie prospect than I would want to jump off a bridge as well as.most of the fanbase that actually are knowledgeable. The Avalanche won with Darcy Kuemper and a sub .900 save %. Devils would look like fools trading for a goalie when Vitek has been amazing this year and Schmid is looking to be ready for backup duty next year. Sti got Daws , Brady and Brennanin the system. We can possibly draft another one this summer as well.

 

[MasterofGrond]

If sorokin were on a contract for 5M a season for 5+ seasons I would consider moving nemec for him

Not much less than that.

 

[NHL Fanatik]

If Nemec were moved for a goalie prospect than I would want to jump off a bridge as well as.most of the fanbase that actually are knowledgeable. The Avalanche won with Darcy Kuemper and a sub .900 save %. Devils would look like fools trading for a goalie when Vitek has been amazing this year and Schmid is looking to be ready for backup duty next year. Sti got Daws , Brady and Brennanin the system. We can possibly draft another one this summer as well.

His mindset was that goalie prospects are a lot better scouted now than they were so if you can get a stud prospect like Sorokin or Shestyorkin or Oettinger etc.. were, than youd have the trifecta.

Its greedy and I covet our own prospects too much to ever part with Nemec. But the idea of a young, true stud #1 goalie is enticing for sure. That isnt someone I think you can get for just a collection of assets. Heck maybe we even get back extra on top

If sorokin were on a contract for 5M a season for 5+ seasons I would consider moving nemec for him

Not much less than that.

Thats a good point, established goalie wouldnt be so bad either. Only issue there is id like them to be 25 or younger tbh, get ourselves a Brodeur-lite for the extended future (if we were moving Nemec)

 

[NHL Fanatik]

If Nemec were moved for a goalie prospect than I would want to jump off a bridge as well as.most of the fanbase that actually are knowledgeable. The Avalanche won with Darcy Kuemper and a sub .900 save %. Devils would look like fools trading for a goalie when Vitek has been amazing this year and Schmid is looking to be ready for backup duty next year. Sti got Daws , Brady and Brennanin the system. We can possibly draft another one this summer as well.

but also being realistic, like you say, I doubt wed ever get to thinking about such a deal

In a world where maybe Fitz is fiending for that final piece of a young stud goalie (and a revolving door of backups you could flip for assets) and they want Nemec, maybe with extra coming back with the goalie; Id be tempted for sure. Nemec feels like gravy on top of what we have already but I also recognize he can be our defensive pillar with Luke going forward.

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

Buddy and me were debating if Nemec would ever be moved for a top-2 goalie prospect outside the league/on an ELC

I think Nemec will be an all around two way top pair dman but man a young starting goalie would go a long way.

Curious what others think or if theres even any goalie prospects that fit the bill. And I dont actually want to trade him btw!

They were pretty close landing Wallstedt anyway. If Jarry wasn't a sieve in 2021, Wallstedt is probably a Devil. I rather trade other assets for an elite goalie than use Nemec for someone the same age. Nemec is gonna be very good and we probably need him in like 3-4 years as Dougie's getting older to ease him on the backend of his career.

 

[devilsblood]

Buddy and me were debating if Nemec would ever be moved for a top-2 goalie prospect outside the league/on an ELC

I think Nemec will be an all around two way top pair dman but man a young starting goalie would go a long way.

Curious what others think or if theres even any goalie prospects that fit the bill. And I dont actually want to trade him btw!

There was a time that Carter Hart fit the bill of top goalie prospect. Now maybe the situation in Philly has ruined him to some extent but goalie’s still seem fiarly hard to judge. Heck Blackwood was looking pretty solid not too long ago.

 

[Poppy Whoa Sonnet]

Seems like paying for goaltending is a fool's errand. I hope NJ just trades off between two guys who are competent, never giving them more than 4 years of term on their deals.

 

[Clam Jensen]

Seems like paying for goaltending is a fool's errand. I hope NJ just trades off between two guys who are competent, never giving them more than 4 years of term on their deals.

Goalies to me are sort of like running backs, albeit a bit more important.

 

[forceten]

I'd like to sign Portillo in August. 6'6, plays with Luke, Ethan, and Seamus in Michigan. Seems solid. LA just purchased the right to negotiate with him, but ... maybe our boys can recruit him!

 

[HenriquesJawLine]

I'd like to sign Portillo in August. 6'6, plays with Luke, Ethan, and Seamus in Michigan. Seems solid. LA just purchased the right to negotiate with him, but ... maybe our boys can recruit him!

He's overrated and scared of competition, no thanks. Not signing with the Sabres, who don't have a goalie, because they have a promising college goalie Devon Levi is so pathetic.

 

[Omar Little]

Portillo has done nothing impressive at Michigan behind some all star college teams (albeit immature defensively)

 

[HBK27]

Dom at The Athletic giving the Devils the 5th best odds to win the Cup after Boston, Carolina, Edmonton & Colorado (playoff divisions play a good role in this, which is why Edmonton is so high).

It’s not often a team makes an immediate jump from lottery team to Cup contender. Playoffs: yes. Contender: no.

According to historic betting odds Pittsburgh was 10th in Cup odds in 2007 going into the playoffs. Washington was eighth in 2008. Boston was 16th in 2008. Chicago was eighth in 2009. Los Angeles was 10th in 2010. Tampa Bay was 10th in 2014. Toronto was 16th in 2017. Colorado was 16th in 2018.

The Devils are fifth, both here and according to oddsmakers. Their closest corollary might be the Blackhawks who jumped right to the conference finals in their very first year. New Jersey is hoping to take the same path in their first postseason crack.

Inexperience will be New Jersey’s biggest weak spot, but this is a team high enough on talent that it may not matter. The pair of Jack Hughes and Nico Hischier is an elite one-two punch down the middle, there’s strong winger depth around them, and the team’s defense corps led by Dougie Hamilton is contender quality. Goaltending may be New Jersey’s undoing, but Vitek Vanecek has still been solid this year.

This would’ve been a good enough team before the deadline, but the Devils took a massive swing by adding Timo Meier, easily the most impactful piece available. Meier is a three-win player and adds immediate offensive oomph to the team while not sacrificing anything defensively. He’s a heavy-volume shooter which fits well with this team’s style.

The Devils took a meteoric rise this season, but they’re no fluke. They’ve arrived as a fully formed contender with immediate expectations. Just making the playoffs is not the goal for this group.

 

[Devs3cups]

I don’t move Nemec unless we’re getting a huge return. He’s very good and having 2 of the best D prospects in the league is such a strength right now.

 

[Blender]

Dom at The Athletic giving the Devils the 5th best odds to win the Cup after Boston, Carolina, Edmonton & Colorado (playoff divisions play a good role in this, which is why Edmonton is so high).

View attachment 664635


It’s not often a team makes an immediate jump from lottery team to Cup contender. Playoffs: yes. Contender: no.

According to historic betting odds Pittsburgh was 10th in Cup odds in 2007 going into the playoffs. Washington was eighth in 2008. Boston was 16th in 2008. Chicago was eighth in 2009. Los Angeles was 10th in 2010. Tampa Bay was 10th in 2014. Toronto was 16th in 2017. Colorado was 16th in 2018.

The Devils are fifth, both here and according to oddsmakers. Their closest corollary might be the Blackhawks who jumped right to the conference finals in their very first year. New Jersey is hoping to take the same path in their first postseason crack.

Inexperience will be New Jersey’s biggest weak spot, but this is a team high enough on talent that it may not matter. The pair of Jack Hughes and Nico Hischier is an elite one-two punch down the middle, there’s strong winger depth around them, and the team’s defense corps led by Dougie Hamilton is contender quality. Goaltending may be New Jersey’s undoing, but Vitek Vanecek has still been solid this year.

This would’ve been a good enough team before the deadline, but the Devils took a massive swing by adding Timo Meier, easily the most impactful piece available. Meier is a three-win player and adds immediate offensive oomph to the team while not sacrificing anything defensively. He’s a heavy-volume shooter which fits well with this team’s style.

The Devils took a meteoric rise this season, but they’re no fluke. They’ve arrived as a fully formed contender with immediate expectations. Just making the playoffs is not the goal for this group.

...but nothing about our easy schedule?

 

[Guttersniped]

He's overrated and scared of competition, no thanks. Not signing with the Sabres, who don't have a goalie, because they have a promising college goalie Devon Levi is so pathetic.

He’ll be a UFA, he can sign with anyone he wants to.

Not sure why choosing where you want to go is pathetic, but I guess only simplistically seeing it as him avoiding Levi helps with that.

 

[guitarguyvic]

My concern with having all three of Hughes Bratt and Meier on the same line has nothing to do with defense. My concern is that all three are play drivers but there’s only one puck, so are we really maximizing their efforts playing them together? I think eventually Meier may have to replace Tatar on the line with Nico when that combo finally cools down. Maybe slot Palat into Meier’s spot on the Bratt-Hughes line and bring Tatar down to the third line.

 

[Guttersniped]

but also being realistic, like you say, I doubt wed ever get to thinking about such a deal

In a world where maybe Fitz is fiending for that final piece of a young stud goalie (and a revolving door of backups you could flip for assets) and they want Nemec, maybe with extra coming back with the goalie; Id be tempted for sure. Nemec feels like gravy on top of what we have already but I also recognize he can be our defensive pillar with Luke going forward.

No trade like that really ever happened.

No GM trades trades an amazing goalie on an ELCs good enough to get them with the current trade value of Nemec, they keep them.

The best younger goalies that get traded are typically RFAs that need to get paid.

If a team already has an expensive goalie then they can’t pay another one a lot of money, so they trade RFA goalies.

In June 2016 Anaheim got a 2016 1st and 2017 2nd from Toronto for Frederik Anderson.

In June 2015 Boston got a 2016 1st and minor prospect for Martin Jones.

The Schneider trade in June 2013 was the time before that a goalie got 1st.

I believe the UFA Kuemper in July 2021 was the only other goalie to get a team a 1st since Schneider, so that’s four goalies in almost a decade (and Lou traded for two of them).

Most significant goalie prospect trade I can think of is the June 2006 trade of Andrew Raycroft for Tuuka Rask and that was two goalies. And Raycroft was an RFA (and the trade is obviously hilarious and very Leafs).

 

[Devils731]

My concern with having all three of Hughes Bratt and Meier on the same line has nothing to do with defense. My concern is that all three are play drivers but there’s only one puck, so are we really maximizing their efforts playing them together? I think eventually Meier may have to replace Tatar on the line with Nico when that combo finally cools down. Maybe slot Palat into Meier’s spot on the Bratt-Hughes line and bring Tatar down to the third line.

I agree with your general point but wanted to add that I think you can play multiple play drivers together and they will still see added benefit from playing with other play drivers.

It may be a suboptimal setup from a team perspective but I do think all 3 guys, in this case, will see benefit from being with other play drivers. Unlike a line lacking a play driver where nothing can get started so all the players end up neutered.

 

[Triumph]

My concern with having all three of Hughes Bratt and Meier on the same line has nothing to do with defense. My concern is that all three are play drivers but there’s only one puck, so are we really maximizing their efforts playing them together? I think eventually Meier may have to replace Tatar on the line with Nico when that combo finally cools down. Maybe slot Palat into Meier’s spot on the Bratt-Hughes line and bring Tatar down to the third line.

Tatar with Nico has been the best combo the Devils have had this season, I don't know why that would be something to mess with. Nico with Tatar has been at 66% xG, without him he's at 49%. These two should not be separated unless nothing else is working and this line is also for some reason not working.

Basically I see the top two lines as Hischier-Tatar and Hughes-Bratt and then whoever can fit in that last place. Meier and Mercer can switch places; Mercer can be moved to the third line and someone else can jump up, but don't mess with these two combos.

 

[guitarguyvic]

Tatar with Nico has been the best combo the Devils have had this season, I don't know why that would be something to mess with. Nico with Tatar has been at 66% xG, without him he's at 49%. These two should not be separated unless nothing else is working and this line is also for some reason not working.

Basically I see the top two lines as Hischier-Tatar and Hughes-Bratt and then whoever can fit in that last place. Meier and Mercer can switch places; Mercer can be moved to the third line and someone else can jump up, but don't mess with these two combos.

I did qualify this with “when the Nico-Tatar line eventually cools down”. But if your of the mind that they need to stay together no matter what, swapping Mercer and Meier makes sense. Mercer isn’t a great play driver himself so this works in terms of spreading those guys out more. For that reason though, I don’t know that Mercer on the third is the best option. I think he has to be in the top 6 with other really strong play driver to get the most out of him.

 

[billingtons ghost]

Felt it was better to make my final rebuttal here instead of in the trade thread, more relevant for team discussion.

As for Mikey being one-dimensional, hes having his best offensive season with two guys slumping this year. So far his P/60 is 236th, good enough to find him in the pool of '3rd line talent' if you count the top-288 for a season. ESP/60 hes much higher, ranking 158th. His current point pace of 31, if put into last years' end stats, would be good enough for 281st (again technically top-9 production if we are to be literal and consider 32 teams with a top-9)

Hes only 25 so it isn't unbelievable to think he can be a 25-30pt forward consistently going forward if we can upgrade his linemates over the next season or two.

He PK'd up to 2 minutes a game last season and is currently fifth on the team at 1:15 so if one of Bastian or Haula aren't kept, Id imagine his SHTOI would rise. Ive read he isn't good defensively and been told his stats arent good/are worse than Wood and Bastian.. but how reliable are advanced metrics for forwards' defense anyhow? Hes seriously worse defensively than Wood? I find that hard to believe lol.

Hes quick, gets a good amount of takeaways, uses his body some, and is money for a defensive draw being one of the better takers in the league. Add in around 25+ points a season when he plays enough and I dont see why that player isn't worth 2m to us in a league where it'd be 2.3% of the cap next season (1.5m cap bump).

Finally Id like to provide a list of some contracts as they were on their championship-winning team, based on ATOI in the playoffs (taking the bottom-4 forwards in ATOI with the most GP, the fourth to allow margin for any ES discrepancies)

In descending order of ATOI, most to least (outliers marked with a *):

(2022) Colorado - Helm 3.85m, O'Connor 750k, Cogliano 1m, Aube-Kubel 1.075m

(2021) Tampa Bay - Stamkos 8.5m*, Colton 700k, Johnson 5m, Maroon 900k

(2020) Tampa Bay - Johnson 5m, Maroon 900k, Paquette 1.65m, Verhaeghe 700k

(2019) St Louis - Thomas 895k, Barbashev 742k, Maroon 1.75m , Blais 673k

(2018) Washington - Smith-Pelly 650k, Vrana 863k, Connolly 1.5m, Chiasson 660k

(2017) Pittsburgh - Sheary 665k, Rowney 613k, Hagelin 3.75m , Wilson 625k

Now I can understand some of these names werent meant to be played this way, whether injury or trade with retention and depth, etc etc...

My point is, simply put, McLeod at 2m being our higher or 2nd highest contract in the bottom of our ATOI, and in a higher cap league, isnt going to kill us. He serves a big role for this team and I dont feel as though he gets his proper credit. A 3-5 year deal at 2-2.2m would be fair for him and would set our 4C for the foreseeable future.

Edit: forgot cap %'s, oh well. Had fun writing this even if its not agreed with

I think a significant silent majority agree with you.
As far as consistent contributers go, he might be out best value on the team. I think the folks that rage against 4th liners don't understand what they bring to the team.

However, I think The question is always: can you bring in a young guy from the minors to step in and replace him and bring what he brings in addition to a higher ceiling. Some think the answer is 'yes'...but you only have to watch Thompson or Foote play a game to realize that isn't the case and they are a big step down.

McLeod has been steadily improving all aspects of his game and is becoming a bargain at $2m.

The one fly in the ointment is his involvement in that scandal, and I can understand if folks want nothing to do with him. From a pure hockey standpoint it would be stupid to let him walk.

 

[billingtons ghost]

I did qualify this with “when the Nico-Tatar line eventually cools down”. But if your of the impression that they need to stay together no matter what, swapping Mercer and Meier makes sense. Mercer isn’t a great play driver himself so this works in terms of spreading those guys out more. For that reason though, I don’t know that Mercer on the third is the best option. I think he has to be in the top 6 with other really strong play driver to get the most out of him.

Tbh I'm fine with seeing if we can build a Palat Meier third line and then really make it hell on opposing teams, at least for the regular season. Keep Nico's line intact and put Rango back with Hughes/Bratt.

It's not like we need to maximize everyone's icetime. If anything, cutting our stars back to under 18m a game to keep them fresh for the playoffs, esp with Meier coming off injury makes sense, and it would be interesting to see if we could get Palat going as he seems to be getting back into playoff form.

 

[Oneiro]

McLeod is fast and can win faceoffs. He's a solid PKer. That's the extent of it. He's not very good defensively and his playmaking and shot are weak. Can we do better? Eventually, probably yes but it could also be a lot worse. If there was a modern version of Brian Boyle with better wheels, I'd much prefer a guy like that as the 4C but they're rare. My hope is that we grab a better 4C candidate in the next few drafts since they should be pretty center heavy.

He probably gets something like 1.2-1.5M on his next deal. Bastian maybe a little higher since he's stronger defensively.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

lol enough with this guy already