Devils team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - part VI

[Patrik26]

100% making the playoffs.

A good chance of making it to the 2nd round.

After that? not so good. lol

So .... Carolina has almost 2x the chance of winning the Cup as Boston? And Edmonton 13.5? WTF? Am I seeing this wrong?

 

[glenwo2]

So .... Carolina has almost 2x the chance of winning the Cup as Boston? And Edmonton 13.5? WTF? Am I seeing this wrong?

Yeah....Edmonton having a large percentage is what's baffling.

Their goaltending is very crappy so I don't get it.

 

[Lou is God]

Yeah....Edmonton having a large percentage is what's baffling.

Their goaltending is very crappy so I don't get it.

Not really when you look at the West overall.

 

[guitarguyvic]

Carolina has twice the chance of winning the cup as Boston? Yeah no, that’s silly.

 

[Capt Nico Poo]

So .... Carolina has almost 2x the chance of winning the Cup as Boston? And Edmonton 13.5? WTF? Am I seeing this wrong?

Well Oilers are in the west. Think about how hard it is for Boston to make SCF:

1st Rd - [Penguins] - an experienced veteran team (kinda a Boston mirror)
2nd Rd - NYR/Leafs or Tampa
3rd Rd Carolina/Devils or one of the above

Especially in rounds 2 and 3 Boston has to go through two much tougher series than anything in the west.

Odds would be so much higher for NJD if we were in the west. Would be such an "easy" route to WCF and to SCF.

Dunno why the chart picked Oilers as the team, but anyway, there are only 2-3 teams with SCF potential in the west. East has like 6.

 

[ChicksDigTheTrap]

Well Oilers are in the west. Think about how hard it is for Boston to make SCF:

1st Rd - [Penguins] - an experienced veteran team (kinda a Boston mirror)
2nd Rd - NYR/Leafs or Tampa
3rd Rd Carolina/Devils or one of the above

Especially in rounds 2 and 3 Boston has to go through two much tougher series than anything in the west.

Odds would be so much higher for NJD if we were in the west. Would be such an "easy" route to WCF and to SCF.

Dunno why the chart picked Oilers as the team, but anyway, there are only 2-3 teams with SCF potential in the west. East has like 6.

That is basically it. His Power Rankings rely on Expected Goal % at ES. as a key factor If you sort his Power Rankings page by that column you will see that.

His model is really geared towards bettors that are looking for "value" bets as opposed to showing why a team like Boston is winning.

NHL Power Rankings -MoneyPuck NHL Power Rankings

NHL Power Rankings Driven By Analytics

www.moneypuck.com

 

[devilsblood]

I don't want Bahl out of the lineup for Smith the rest of the way.

We need to know if Bahl can eventually replace Graves.

Bahl would not really be replacing Graves. With Luke coming in the roles on the left get reshuffled pretty dramatically.

We are also now at the point of securing a playoff spot, and then trying to win in the playoffs. If Bahl is not in the lineup through the rest of the year, then so be it.

Now assuming he get's sqeezed out of the mix this year, could he improve in coming years to grow into a 3rd pairing guy who can contribute in defensive roles, it's certainly possible, Sieg's didn't establish himself until his 24 year old season, so I don't think this stretch is overly important in terms of deciding on where Bahl fits going fwd.

 

[Omar Little]

Bahl would not really be replacing Graves. With Luke coming in the roles on the left get reshuffled pretty dramatically.

We are also now at the point of securing a playoff spot, and then trying to win in the playoffs. If Bahl is not in the lineup through the rest of the year, then so be it.

Now assuming he get's sqeezed out of the mix this year, could he improve in coming years to grow into a 3rd pairing guy who can contribute in defensive roles, it's certainly possible, Sieg's didn't establish himself until his 24 year old season, so I don't think this stretch is overly important in terms of deciding on where Bahl fits going fwd.

I think it is pretty likely we resign Graves and Hughes will play his offside next year and we go with the following:

Siegenthaler-Hamilton
Graves-Hughes
Bahl-Marino

Or

Siegenthaler-Hamilton
Hughes-Marino
Graves-Bahl

Then the year after when Nemec is truly ready a decision gets made as to whether you move out Graves or Bahl (likely Graves due to contracts).

 

[devilsblood]

That is basically it. His Power Rankings rely on Expected Goal % at ES. as a key factor If you sort his Power Rankings page by that column you will see that.

His model is really geared towards bettors that are looking for "value" bets as opposed to showing why a team like Boston is winning.

NHL Power Rankings -MoneyPuck NHL Power Rankings

NHL Power Rankings Driven By Analytics

www.moneypuck.com

I get the importance of ES play, but I don't understand why one would overlook the importance of goal tending and special teams.

Also pretty interesting how Boston outperforms their xGF at ES. Of the 14 fwd's who have played 100 minutes, all but one guy has a better GF then xGF, and that guy has played all of 107 minutes. Often the outperformance is pretty dramatic.

 

[ChicksDigTheTrap]

I get the importance of ES play, but I don't understand why one would overlook the importance of goal tending and special teams.

Also pretty interesting how Boston outperforms their xGF at ES. Of the 14 fwd's who have played 100 minutes, all but one guy has a better GF then xGF. Often the outperformance is pretty dramatic.

It is just a model. If you understand what it is attempting to do you understand its weaknesses.

 

[devilsblood]

I think it is pretty likely we resign Graves and Hughes will play his offside next year and we go with the following:

Siegenthaler-Hamilton
Graves-Hughes
Bahl-Marino

Or

Siegenthaler-Hamilton
Hughes-Marino
Graves-Bahl

Then the year after when Nemec is truly ready a decision gets made as to whether you move out Graves or Bahl (likely Graves due to contracts)

Pretty likely? I dunno sounds pretty unlikely to me.

I know Hughes has played a fair amount of his off hand side, but it's pretty rare in the NHL these days, especially for a rookie.

 

[devilsblood]

It is just a model. If you understand what it is attempting to do you understand its weaknesses.

I don't know what actually goes into the model, so I'm just assuming here, but a model which doesn't factor in special teams or goaltending? Never mind 5v5 finishing ability.

It's telling 1/3 of the story.

 

[JimEIV]

Bahl would not really be replacing Graves. With Luke coming in the roles on the left get reshuffled pretty dramatically.

We are also now at the point of securing a playoff spot, and then trying to win in the playoffs. If Bahl is not in the lineup through the rest of the year, then so be it.

Now assuming he get's sqeezed out of the mix this year, could he improve in coming years to grow into a 3rd pairing guy who can contribute in defensive roles, it's certainly possible, Sieg's didn't establish himself until his 24 year old season, so I don't think this stretch is overly important in terms of deciding on where Bahl fits going fwd.

In my opinion Luke is not a factor when talking about this regular season.

Good chance we don't see Luke at all this season or at the very best a couple of games. The NCAA regionals don't start until March 24th and the Frozen 4 starts on April 6th. We only have 7 games in April, only 4 games after April 6. If Michigan reaches the Frozen 4 there is no way we see Luke.

Next year we can assume Luke is going to start in the top 4. Something like:

Siegenthaler - Hamilton
Luke - Marino

So that leaves:

Bahl/Graves? - Nemec/Severson?

In my mind the Graves slot heir apparent right now is Bahl, similarly Nemec to Severson.

So with a decision to be made on both Graves and Severson. My opinion is getting Bahl as many reps as possible is a smart thing to do.

Luke will almost certainly start his career at LD. He may switch over at some point but I don't think it'll be any time soon.

He's also played LD all year this year.

 

[ChicksDigTheTrap]

I don't know what actually goes into the model, so I'm just assuming here, but a model which doesn't factor in special teams or goaltending? Never mind 5v5 finishing ability.

It's telling 1/3 of the story.

Sounds like you would prefer a comprehensive model that explains why teams are winning. I am sure they are out there.

 

[Devs3cups]

In my opinion Luke is not a factor when talking about this regular season.

Good chance we don't see Luke at all this season or at the very best a couple of games. The NCAA regionals don't start until March 24th and the Frozen 4 starts on April 6th. We only have 7 games in April, only 4 games after April 6. If Michigan reaches the Frozen 4 there is no way we see Luke.

Next year we can assume Luke is going to start in the top 4. Something like:

Siegenthaler - Hamilton
Luke - Marino

So that leaves:

Bahl/Graves? - Nemec/Severson?

In my mind the Graves slot heir apparent right now is Bahl, similarly Nemec to Severson.

So with a decision to be made on both Graves and Severson. My opinion is getting Bahl as many reps as possible is a smart thing to do.

Luke will almost certainly start his career at LD. He may switch over at some point but I don't think it'll be any time soon.

He's also played LD all year this year.

I wouldn’t be so sure we don’t see Luke.

Michigan almost choked away a 4-1 lead last night, it’s very possible they lose the semi-final game on March 11th.

Even if they go right away, he’ll most likely come along for the last 2 games of our regular season on April 11th and April 14th, whether that is to get his cup of coffee, give some guys rest or slot into the lineup for the playoffs.

 

[JimEIV]

I wouldn’t be so sure we don’t see Luke.

Michigan almost choked away a 4-1 lead last night, it’s very possible they lose the semi-final game on March 11th.

Even if they go right away, he’ll most likely come along for the last 2 games of our regular season on April 11th and April 14th, whether that is to get his cup of coffee, give some guys rest or slot into the lineup for the playoffs.

I didn't say we won't see Luke. I said he's a non-factor as far as the regular season is concerned.

At best you're looking at 5 games and a couple of weeks.

 

[Devs3cups]

I didn't say we won't see Luke. I said he's a non-factor as far as the regular season is concerned.

In what way? I’m pretty sure he suits up for the last 2 games (considering the go all the way in the Frozen Four) to at least give guys some rest. Unless you mean that 2 games isn’t a huge factor for the team structure?

 

[JimEIV]

In what way? I’m pretty sure he suits up for the last 2 games (considering the go all the way in the Frozen Four) to at least give guys some rest. Unless you mean that 2 games isn’t a huge factor for the team structure?

Let's assume he suits up for 4 games...there is still 17 games he won't be the lineup.

The discussion is about seeing Bahl for as long as possible and not Smith ...for 17 games of the next 21 Luke isn't even in the conversation. To me that's what non-factor as far as the regular season is concerned means.

 

[devilsblood]

In my opinion Luke is not a factor when talking about this regular season.

Good chance we don't see Luke at all this season or at the very best a couple of games. The NCAA regionals don't start until March 24th and the Frozen 4 starts on April 6th. We only have 7 games in April, only 4 games after April 6. If Michigan reaches the Frozen 4 there is no way we see Luke.

Next year we can assume Luke is going to start in the top 4. Something like:

Siegenthaler - Hamilton
Luke - Marino

So that leaves:

Bahl/Graves? - Nemec/Severson?

In my mind the Graves slot heir apparent right now is Bahl, similarly Nemec to Severson.

So with a decision to be made on both Graves and Severson. My opinion is getting Bahl as many reps as possible is a smart thing to do.

Luke will almost certainly start his career at LD. He may switch over at some point but I don't think it'll be any time soon.

He's also played LD all year this year.

Given we are talking about Bahl potentially replacing Graves, are we not talking next year?

From what I've seen on Bahl thus far, he is prone to some brutal mistakes with the puck. Perhaps that lessens with experience, but for a defensive guy I really haven't liked that aspect of his game.

The left side for next year does look to be a puzzle, Luke should bring talent, but he will undoubtedly bring warts, and as mentioned Bahl still has warts as well. Still if Luke is the prospect we hope, it should work well, despite those warts.

 

[Capt Nico Poo]

100% making the playoffs.

A good chance of making it to the 2nd round.

After that? not so good. lol

Lets assume the current standing in east are the actual seeding for POs.

Lets also assume that none of the wildcards upset in the 1st round and Devils beat Rangers.

This means that Boston will face in the 2nd round Tampa or Leafs. In the ECF its eithet NJ or Canes.

For NJ the route to SCF would be: NYR -> Canes -> BOS (or Tampa/Laffs).

Basically by winning metro we'd just switch the 1st rd opponent, Canes would most likely be up against us in the 2nd round.

That said, surprises and upsets always happen.

 

[Guttersniped]

I don't know what actually goes into the model, so I'm just assuming here, but a model which doesn't factor in special teams or goaltending? Never mind 5v5 finishing ability.

It's telling 1/3 of the story.

MoneyPuck.com -About and How it Works

About MoneyPuck, Models, Analytics, Corsi, Fenwick

moneypuck.com

They have a page explaining the model, you can read about it yourself instead of trying to imagine it from an off-hand comment here. (Save % and Shooting % is in the model btw.)

 

[devilsblood]

MoneyPuck.com -About and How it Works

About MoneyPuck, Models, Analytics, Corsi, Fenwick

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They have a page explaining the model, you can read about it yourself instead of trying to imagine it from an off-hand comment here. (Save % and Shooting % is in the model btw.)

Meh, I'd rather not seperate myself from the pack.

 

[bigd]

I think it is pretty likely we resign Graves and Hughes will play his offside next year and we go with the following:

Siegenthaler-Hamilton
Graves-Hughes
Bahl-Marino

Or

Siegenthaler-Hamilton
Hughes-Marino
Graves-Bahl

Then the year after when Nemec is truly ready a decision gets made as to whether you move out Graves or Bahl (likely Graves due to contracts).

Graves is having a pretty good year. I doubt we are going to give him anything close to what he's going to get on the open market.

 

[devilsblood]

Graves is having a pretty good year. I doubt we are going to give him anything close to what he's going to get on the open market.

Ya, especially when the plan should be a Luke Hughes-Sieg top 4 on the left side within 2 seasons.

Like Sev's, I think Graves is a good player, but is just squeezed out by circumstances.

 

[glenwo2]

So apparently, Curtis Lazar is having Visa issues and stated he'll arrive early next week :