Devils team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - part VI

[devilsblood]

In the last 20 games, 13 forwards have played at least 100 minutes.

In that time, Hughes is 11th in xGF rate. Haula is 12th, and Palat is 13th.

Tatar is nearly a full goal higher per 60. Wood and McLeod are a half goal higher per 60.

The fact that Hughes is a -6 5v5 during that stretch is due in part to shooting %. But he is just not playing to the level we expect from a star player.

 

[Devs3cups]

In the last 20 games, 13 forwards have played at least 100 minutes.

In that time, Hughes is 11th in xGF rate. Haula is 12th, and Palat is 13th.

Tatar is nearly a full goal higher per 60. Wood and McLeod are a half goal higher per 60.

The fact that Hughes is a -6 5v5 during that stretch is due in part to shooting %. But he is just not playing to the level we expect from a star player.

His metrics aren’t horrible overall. They’re not up to his normal self though, that’s for sure. During that same stretch 20 games:

Jack has the 3rd best ixG (Individual expected goals) amongst forwards and 3rd in iSCF (Individual scoring chances for).

He’s 10th in iHDCF (Individual high danger scoring chances for), and I suspect this is where the problem lies. He’s getting a lot of looks overall, but less HD ones. Usually, he’d be at the top in that category. There’s definitely something off right now and his game isn’t at 100%.

Am I worried about him? Not at all. He’s still buzzing, it’s just not totally clicking right now post injury. Hopefully this streak of 3 games in 8 days will help him recover and refocus a bit.

 

[devilsblood]

His metrics aren’t horrible overall. They’re not up to his normal self though, that’s for sure. During that same stretch 20 games:

Jack has the 3rd best ixG (Individual expected goals) amongst forwards and 3rd in iSCF (Individual scoring chances for).

He’s 10th in iHDCF (Individual high danger scoring chances for), and I suspect this is where the problem lies. He’s getting a lot of looks overall, but less HD ones. Usually, he’d be at the top in that category. There’s definitely something off right now and his game isn’t at 100%.

Am I worried about him? Not at all. He’s still buzzing, it’s just not totally clicking right now post injury.

But people are saying "luck", which I don't like in general, and in this case isn't that accurate.

I think we also need to acknowledge that Jack being middle of the pack in some of these stats means he is not playing well. He's a superstar player getting the choice offensive opportunities.

I also think these higher individual #'s combined with lower on ice #'s isn't really a great sign.

 

[Jersey Fresh]

But people are saying "luck", which I don't like in general, and in this case isn't that accurate.

I think we also need to acknowledge that Jack being middle of the pack in some of these stats means he is not playing well. He's a superstar player getting the choice offensive opportunities.

I also think these higher individual #'s combined with lower on ice #'s isn't really a great sign.

Definitely agree. Just plopping "shooting percentage" on the table doesn't address a lot of what we're seeing on the ice. Yeah, he's still creating and getting chances, because he's an incredible player, but what we're seeing for the last nearly 20 games is half the player we saw before. And part of that is the finishing.

 

[Devs3cups]

I feel like people dogging on Jack right now are arguing with themselves. Everyone knows he’s not looking like his normal self. He definitely isn’t and something is off right now. There’s no one to convince, everybody here seems in agreement on that. It happens.

Shooting under 3% in your last 20 games when you’re a career 11-12% shooter is still absurd, especially when your ixG in that span is 7, good for 3rd on the team.

 

[devilsblood]

Definitely agree. Just plopping "shooting percentage" on the table doesn't address a lot of what we're seeing on the ice. Yeah, he's still creating and getting chances, because he's an incredible player, but what we're seeing for the last nearly 20 games is half the player we saw before. And part of that is the finishing.

And to this point, he's really not creating chances, not at a good rate anyways.

I think some people love to focus on the chances that his linemates don't finish, but that happens on every line with every player. Bottom line is he is near the bottom of the team in the last 20 games in terms of creating chances.

Now what does this all mean? Not a whole lot really. He's a great player. I don't think you pull him to try to get him healthy. You keep rolling him out there hoping he can battle through whatever it is and regain his form. This is pretty common for young star players.

But in terms of analyzing his game since the injury. He's played well below what we have come to expect from a healthy Hughes.

 

[FooteBahl]

@FooteBahl , your thoughts?

What a set of Bahl’s on @Devils731 !

I feel like people dogging on Jack right now are arguing with themselves. Everyone knows he’s not looking like his normal self. He definitely isn’t and something is off right now. There’s no one to convince, everybody here seems in agreement on that. It happens.

Shooting under 3% in your last 20 games when you’re a career 11-12% shooter is still absurd, especially when your ixG in that span is 7, good for 3rd on the team.

I didn’t get to see the game last night, but Jack had 10 shots on goal…did he look slow/injured? Serious question

 

[devilsblood]

I feel like people dogging on Jack right now are arguing with themselves. Everyone knows he’s not looking like his normal self. He definitely isn’t and something is off right now. There’s no one to convince, everybody here seems in agreement on that. It happens.

Shooting under 3% in your last 20 games when you’re a career 11-12% shooter is still absurd, especially when your ixG in that span is 7, good for 3rd on the team.

When people respond back "look at his ixG", or "luck", despite his on ice #'s being near the bottom of the team, am I really arguing with myself? It sure seems like people are saying he hasn't been that bad, and I do acknowledge a high bar of expectations on this front.

Again, I'm not all that worried at the moment, he's going to keep getting minutes, it's still awhiles off before the playoffs, but we will absolutely need more from Hughes come playoffs.

What a set of Bahl’s on @Devils731 !


I didn’t get to see the game last night, but Jack had 10 shots on goal…did he look slow/injured? Serious question

4 shots were 5v5. 1 was on the PP. So a bunch were in OT.

4 sog's 5v5 is still a good # but his on ice corsi #'s were way under water.

 

[billingtons ghost]

What a set of Bahl’s on @Devils731 !


I didn’t get to see the game last night, but Jack had 10 shots on goal…did he look slow/injured? Serious question

Just 'off'. He almost won the game though in the seconds before the Wild did.

Might be linemates, might be that he's feeling the 'targeting' as the game are intensifying, he might be knicked up.

Gustavson saw a ton of rubber but outside of Bratt's chance there wasn't a while lot of great chances. Felt like he was catching lobs from the point all night. His rebound control was great. He saw every puck.

I can't really remember more than one of Jack's chances and that's pretty rare as they almost always get me out of my seat this year

 

[Saugus]

Just 'off'. He almost won the game though in the seconds before the Wild did.

Might be linemates, might be that he's feeling the 'targeting' as the game are intensifying, he might be knicked up.

Gustavson saw a ton of rubber but outside of Bratt's chance there wasn't a while lot of great chances. Felt like he was catching lobs from the point all night. His rebound control was great. He saw every puck.

I can't really remember more than one of Jack's chances and that's pretty rare as they almost always get me out of my seat this year

I wouldn't say they were all lobs, but this is a good point. Minnesota did a good job of keeping us to the outside and forcing shots from up high. There's a reason Hamilton had like 9 shots last night, and it's because not much else was open.

 

[billingtons ghost]

I wouldn't say they were all lobs, but this is a good point. Minnesota did a good job of keeping us to the outside and forcing shots from up high. There's a reason Hamilton had like 9 shots last night, and it's because not much else was open.

That's fair. He made them look like lobs tho, lol. I was impressed with their commitment to defense. They could actually be tough in the playoffs if they play like they have the past few games

 

[billingtons ghost]

I mean, hes averaging nearly 4.5 shots per game over that span...he never did that as a rookie. His shooting % is under 3% the last 17 games...that will correct itself.

I know you guys like the stats, but I think it's more indicative of our better opponents and their commitment to shutting him down.

His shooting % has a hell of a lot less to do with luck, than the types of shots he's been forced into taking.

I'm not worried. But I think it's natural as the stakes increase for him to find it tougher to find open Ice.

If anything, it sometimes shows when he gets a bit more frenetic, loses edges, turns the puck over and overskates.

There's still the 'carry the puck all over the ice and lap the defense' stuff going on, but it's not always ending up with him walking the slot alone.

 

[Bleedred]

I think people tend to read too much into split sample sizes. I mean, I sometimes do too, but this is kind of like ''Well he has a .920% over his last 16 games, he's really much closer to who he is over that than the first 9 games'' stuff, only on the opposite end.

No player is extremely consistent over every game or every month, stretch, etc.

That said, he hasn't looked all that great since he returned from sitting a few games with the injury. At least not as explosive. He hasn't looked bad, but he hasn't looked as explosive or the like MVP candidate that he was up to that point.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

I know you guys like the stats, but I think it's more indicative of our better opponents and their commitment to shutting him down.

His shooting % has a hell of a lot less to do with luck, than the types of shots he's been forced into taking.

I'm not worried. But I think it's natural as the stakes increase for him to find it tougher to find open Ice.

If anything, it sometimes shows when he gets a bit more frenetic, loses edges, turns the puck over and overskates.

There's still the 'carry the puck all over the ice and lap the defense' stuff going on, but it's not always ending up with him walking the slot alone.

Meh, hes getting basically all the same shots he used to be getting, they just aren't going in. Whether its because he has a minor wrist injury and cant get everything on his shot is certainly up for debate though. Its not like he is getting 4-5 shots from 50 feet out every game.

 

[Emperoreddy]

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

I’ve pretty much accepted that we’re not getting the ridiculous Jack that we had earlier in the season by the time the playoffs get here. But I still have hope he’ll figure it out enough to be an impact player. We have enough firepower to win a couple rounds if that happens.

 

[Eggtimer]

I know you guys like the stats, but I think it's more indicative of our better opponents and their commitment to shutting him down.

His shooting % has a hell of a lot less to do with luck, than the types of shots he's been forced into taking.

I'm not worried. But I think it's natural as the stakes increase for him to find it tougher to find open Ice.

If anything, it sometimes shows when he gets a bit more frenetic, loses edges, turns the puck over and overskates.

There's still the 'carry the puck all over the ice and lap the defense' stuff going on, but it's not always ending up with him walking the slot alone.

I think there are a few things with Jack right now.
His timing seems off , he hasn’t really driven to the net or middle of the ice , his shot looks under powered and off where he has chosen to pass where he would normally shoot. Just guessing but I can see him being told to not to put himself into bad situations to potentially get hurt by driving hard to the net and scoring areas when we essentially have a playoff spot amd opponent locked up.
Him getting hurt would be a huge hit against our playoff chances.
So slight nagging issues , timing , not going 100% balls out , figuring out line mates and chemistry .

 

[Devs3cups]

I’ve pretty much accepted that we’re not getting the ridiculous Jack that we had earlier in the season by the time the playoffs get here. But I still have hope he’ll figure it out enough to be an impact player. We have enough firepower to win a couple rounds if that happens.

Jack from last year and up to February is the real Jack. He’s struggled post injury, but I’d be surprised if he didn’t pick it up in the next 11 games.

 

[NHL Fanatik]

I feel like people dogging on Jack right now are arguing with themselves. Everyone knows he’s not looking like his normal self. He definitely isn’t and something is off right now. There’s no one to convince, everybody here seems in agreement on that. It happens.

Shooting under 3% in your last 20 games when you’re a career 11-12% shooter is still absurd, especially when your ixG in that span is 7, good for 3rd on the team.

I think those are responses to the folks making comments about Jack's shooting % in opposition to him possibly being injured or fatigued in some way

Though I think its pretty obvious Jack is fighting something the last two weeks

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

Oh I agree he is probably fighting some type of injury....I know people mentioned seeing him take his gloves off on the bench and shake his wrist a few times in recent games, so maybe its that?

However, if he continues to put up 4-5 shots per game, even with an injury, he isn't going to continue to shoot at 2-3%. It isn't sustainable.

All these things can be true.

 

[Richer's Ghost]

Not for nothing, but there’s been a pretty noticeable red invasion at MSG this year too. The Rangers will always have the bigger draw, but this wouldn’t be like previous years. This fan base is energized. The playoffs are going to be wild.



It doesn’t even need to be “expensive.” If you’re even shooting Evan Williams black you’re doing it very wrong.

Evan Williams black is my day to day standard. Can't beat it for the price and is just fine enjoyed neat or on the rocks.

 

[Eggtimer]

I’m going way off topic here . For possible bottom 6 options in the offseason , what do you think we should do . Who do we keep amd who do we let walk / trade / not qualify ?
Who are the locked in , for sure , bottom 6 guys and where do they play (3rd or 4th line )
Id really like to see if we can get Ross Colton off of Tampa as one piece . RFA currently making 1.1 mil. Shouldnt break the bank , perfect bottom 6 player. Grew up in NJ and was a huge Devils fan. Versatile , skilled , has good size . I can’t see Tampa being able to keep him but then again, his salary shouldnt be too much over league min to make that much difference for them?
What do we do with McLeod , Bastian , Wood , Sharangovich , Boqvist , Haula , Foote , Thompson , Clarke , all options for the bottom 6. Does Tatar get extended and stay in the top 6? Does Holtz make the roster amd take a spot , making one of the guys I listed expendable?

 

[bossram]

Jack is hard to play with, but he does have a unique chemistry with Bratt. I don't think there is any current forward duo that makes as many neutral zone give-and-gos as they do.



Just give this line a real run. Tatar-Hischier-Mercer showed a lot of chemistry. So did Palat-Haula-Boqvist.

Let 'em cook!

 

[Satans Hockey]

The real MVP...

 

[Better Call Sal]

Evan Williams black is my day to day standard. Can't beat it for the price and is just fine enjoyed neat or on the rocks.

Not to derail this thread entirely but just getting into enjoying Woodford Reserve as of late. I'm a complete rookie when it comes to enjoying bourbon and was told by my buddy it was good stuff. Has not disappointed.