Devils team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - part VI

[NHL Fanatik]

In a salary cap world some calculated risks end up being taken by necessity.

I think the Devils will look for another veteran defenseman if they let Graves and Severson walk but if the team can’t find good value then they may feel rolling the dice is the best option.

Also, next year, the forwards should be so good that the team should be able to win even with Bahl and Hughes going through some rookie learning periods.

I dont disagree - we may have to do so

But..

A) idt it will be until all options are exhausted, Id peg Bahl at 3RD much quicker than 2LD

And

B) its a bit much to say the offense can carry the defense considering the goaltending is yet to be solidified outside a shaky Vanecek and a possible-starter in Schmid. Remove Graves and Severson with two rookies and idk if the goalies will be able to keep it up

Then we still have Smith who gives you a baseline

You're trying to solve that doesn't exist yet and may never exist

Thats quite literally the GM's job though...

Also if Smith ever touched 2LD were f***ed so no, im not accepting him anywhere above the third pair

 

[Forge]

I dont disagree - we may have to do so

But..

A) idt it will be until all options are exhausted, Id peg Bahl at 3RD much quicker than 2LD


Thats quite literally the GM's job though...

So you think that the GMs are assuming that the three guys they have to fill 2 spots won't work and they need to have a backup plan to the backup plan before they even start?

That's more of a top line AHL guy who can fill in at the NHL level. Not a full on second pairing dman

 

[Devils731]

B) its a bit much to say the offense can carry the defense considering the goaltending is yet to be solidified outside a shaky Vanecek and a possible-starter in Schmid. Remove Graves and Severson with two rookies and idk if the goalies will be able to keep it up

The Devils have the 2nd best goal differential in the league this year and are 3rd overall.

I don’t think the bottom falls out for this team because Luke Hughes has some growing pains and Bahl is asked to do a little too much during the season.

 

[Bcap88]

would be suprised if haula isn’t back

He brings to much lineup flexibility

 

[Devils731]

No Bahl buhsting here. Hopefully Bahl can keep this level of play up, he seems to be getting comfortable.

 

[NHL Fanatik]

So you think that the GMs are assuming that the three guys they have to fill 2 spots won't work and they need to have a backup plan to the backup plan before they even start?

That's more of a top line AHL guy who can fill in at the NHL level. Not a full on second pairing Dman

Youre acting as if the three people to fill said positions youre bringing up have a lick of experience doing so (or in Smith's case should even be allowed to)

No, I do not think any contending team's GM normally considers their first plan of attack to fill the 2LD spot be to throw in a 22yo whos never done it before with a 19yo behind him and a washed up 34yo anchor behind them

I could understand if Bahl has had ANY time at all in the top-4. But how you seem so dumbfounded by this when youre literally suggesting to start a guy with no experience there is... well idk, why is that

 

[Saugus]

The Devils have the 2nd best goal differential in the league this year and are 3rd overall.

I don’t think the bottom falls out for this team because Luke Hughes has some growing pains and Bahl is asked to do a little too much during the season.

I think this is true if one of Graves/Severson walk, but not if both do without some move to replace one of them.

Losing both would leave us with too many tough minutes falling to guys who are probably not quite ready to take them.

 

[NHL Fanatik]

The Devils have the 2nd best goal differential in the league this year and are 3rd overall.

I don’t think the bottom falls out for this team because Luke Hughes has some growing pains and Bahl is asked to do a little too much during the season.

Youre prettying up the issue here with your wording

Youre losing two top-4 defenseman and replacing them with guys who have no experience doing so.

Its not this complicated as to how thats a bad thing...

 

[Devils731]

Youre prettying up the issue here with your wording

Youre losing two top-4 defenseman and replacing them with guys who have no experience doing so.

Its not this complicated as to how thats a bad thing...

I didn’t say it’s a good thing but I would expect Hughes to be playing at a top 4 level at some point during the season.

So now I just need Bahl to play at a 3rd pairing level and my defense is good enough.

I think you’re overstating how bad the Devils would be if Graves and Severson walked and both were replaced internally.

—————-

I don’t even expect both to replaced internally, I expect an external move if they both leave, but the Devils will weather the storm if there is no external move.

 

[NHL Fanatik]

I didn’t say it’s a good thing but I would expect Hughes to be playing at a top 4 level at some point during the season.

So now I just need Bahl to play at a 3rd pairing level and my defense is good enough.

I think you’re overstating how bad the Devils would be if Graves and Severson walked and both were replaced internally.

—————-

I don’t even expect both to replaced internally, I expect an external move if they both leave, but the Devils will weather the storm if there is no external move.

Im stating how bad any NHL team would fare if they lose two top-4 defenseman and replace them with rookies

This isnt even taking into account if one of our (now) only three NHL proven defenseman get injured.

And assuming Luke will become a top-4 dman, outside of offense, before hes 21 is a wild take as well. Hes barely as defensively responsible as he should be today in Michigan...

Theres a lot of assumptions being made here for a team that has just come out of a rebuild - and theyre being made as if weve been contending for a decade

 

[Forge]

Youre acting as if the three people to fill said positions youre bringing up have a lick of experience doing so (or in Smith's case should even be allowed to)

No, I do not think any contending team's GM normally considers their first plan of attack to fill the 2LD spot be to throw in a 22yo whos never done it before with a 19yo behind him and a washed up 34yo anchor behind them

I could understand if Bahl has had ANY time at all in the top-4. But how you seem so dumbfounded by this when youre literally suggesting to start a guy with no experience there is... well idk, why is that

If they can't do it, that's something you can look at leading to the deadline. Given the success of power, Hughes, Sanderson, makar, heiskenan, etc, there's no reason to assume Hughes' failure on a second pair. Certainly not to the extent where I have to pay real money or assets to fill out on.

I know that Bahl and Smith can handle third pairing duties and I'd sooner try one of them on the second pair before adding something long term.

This is a cap team, dollar efficiency matters

 

[Eggtimer]

Must be talking about Novak from Nashville not our Novak

Yes . I was just tryig to make a lame joke. Leah Hextall called a game for us awhile back and kept calling Tatar - Novak for almost the entire game before she realized she is an idiot.

 

[NHL Fanatik]

If they can't do it, that's something you can look at leading to the deadline. Given the success of power, Hughes, Sanderson, makar, heiskenan, etc, there's no reason to assume Hughes' failure on a second pair. Certainly not to the extent where I have to pay real money or assets to fill out on.

I know that Bahl and Smith can handle third pairing duties and I'd sooner try one of them on the second pair before adding something long term.

This is a cap team, dollar efficiency matters

I never suggested to add a long-term deal - in fact Ive commented more than I can remember the last few days (including today) that we shouldnt be paying a 1st or other valuable assets for a two year rental until Luke is in that spot

So yes, I am okay with Bahl at 2LD before I give up a third straight 1st fresh out of a rebuild.

BUT - and a big but too (hehe) - I, under no circumstances, would ever make the assumption that Fitz is okay entering the year with Bahl at 2LD. Do I think it could work? Perhaps and I think he thinks that too.

But it is his literal job to attempt to find a replacement for Graves (or convince Graves to stay on a shorter deal) before he defaults to Bahl. Otherwise he is doing his defense and goaltending (and the whole team really) a disservice just to offer yet another forward in Haula or Tatar a contract when we have plenty of scoring

And thats really the difference were having here: I doubt it as far as making the claim theres no way Fitz will target both Haula and Tatar over a replacement 2LD (which stems back from the original post of we cant afford all of Haula/Tatar/Graves)

 

[Forge]

I never suggested to add a long-term deal - in fact Ive commented more than I can remember the last few days (including today) that we shouldnt be paying a 1st or other valuable assets for a two year rental until Luke is in that spot

So yes, I am okay with Bahl at 2LD before I give up a third straight 1st fresh out of a rebuild.

BUT - and a big but too (hehe) - I, under no circumstances, would ever make the assumption that Fitz is okay entering the year with Bahl at 2LD. Do I think it could work? Perhaps and I think he thinks that too.

But it is his literal job to attempt to find a replacement for Graves (or convince Graves to stay on a shorter deal) before he defaults to Bahl. Otherwise he is doing his defense and goaltending (and the whole team really) a disservice just to offer yet another forward in Haula or Tatar a contract when we have plenty of scoring

And thats really the difference were having here: I doubt it as far as making the claim theres no way Fitz will target both Haula and Tatar over a replacement 2LD (which stems back from the original post of we cant afford all of Haula/Tatar/Graves)

4 years on graves is long term. If those three can't work, I'm going year by year until I'm ready to consider Hughes a bust. Bahl being 2ld entering the season isn't the plan, it's the backup plan. Hughes as the 1ld would be the primary plan

 

[Devils731]

Im stating how bad any NHL team would fare if they lose two top-4 defenseman and replace them with rookies

This isnt even taking into account if one of our (now) only three NHL proven defenseman get injured.

And assuming Luke will become a top-4 dman, outside of offense, before hes 21 is a wild take as well. Hes barely as defensively responsible as he should be today in Michigan...

Theres a lot of assumptions being made here for a team that has just come out of a rebuild - and theyre being made as if weve been contending for a decade

I think it’s extremely more likely Hughes is a top 4 dman sometime next year than not. I’m talking like a 85/15 split, definitely high enough to bet on.

 

[NHL Fanatik]

4 years on graves is long term. If those three can't work, I'm going year by year until I'm ready to consider Hughes a bust

I didnt say four years...

I said 4.5x3 (which is what id offer) would basically equate to a 4x4 deal in UFA and he gets to stay on a top growing contender

And youd likely move him that final year the same way we will move Palat in two or three years

I think it’s extremely more likely Hughes is a top 4 dman sometime next year than not. I’m talking like a 85/15 split, definitely high enough to bet on.

Well considering his brother wasnt defensively responsible until his third full season - thats a hell of a lot of optimism out of you here

 

[Forge]

I didnt say four years...

I said 4.5x3 (which is what id offer) would basically equate to a 4x4 deal in UFA and he gets to stay on a top growing contender

And youd likely move him that final year the same way we will move Palat in two or three years

I think that contract is unrealistic given the market, but again, I'm going year by year here, even 3 years tied into a second pair dman for real money I'm not interested in.

I think what you're saying potentially makes more sense on the right side, just not the left. I have no reason no to move full speed ahead with the 4 we have when Luke joins.

 

[Devils731]

Well considering his brother wasnt defensively responsible until his third full season - thats a hell of a lot of optimism out of you here

Luke Hughes isn’t Quinn Hughes. No more than he is Owen Power or Jack Hughes.

You think most top defenseman need to wait 4-5 years after they drafted to be able to consider a top 4 guy?

 

[NHL Fanatik]

Luke Hughes isn’t Quinn Hughes. No more than he is Owen Power or Jack Hughes.

You think most top defenseman need to wait 4-5 years after they drafted to be able to consider a top 4 guy?

Lol so I cant use the guys direct brother, who he modeled his game after, as an idea on how how he will fare his first four years?

...Thats not even really an opinion its just flat out silly to say, Im sorry

But anyway, Luke being able to score 50 just like his brother did wont change that he likely gets caved in defensively until hes about 21 years old and gets some man-strength

Whether he plays top-4 or not, he wont be top-4 defensively in his second year. I can all but assure you that considering he just this year started to be defensively responsible... IN THE NCAA!

I think that contract is unrealistic given the market, but again, I'm going year by year here, even 3 years tied into a second pair dman for real money I'm not interested in.

I think what you're saying potentially makes more sense on the right side, just not the left. I have no reason no to move full speed ahead with the 4 we have when Luke joins.

We will see - I think this team may have the best locker room chemistry in the NHL right now and youre seeing it with guys like Haula and Tatar speaking so highly

I personally think that extends to Graves and dont think it impossible to get him at 4.5x3. Hed only be 31 at the end of that deal

 

[Devils731]

Whether he plays top-4 or not, he wont be top-4 defensively in his second year. I can all but assure you that considering he just this year started to be defensively responsible... IN THE NCAA!

But will be a top 4 with his net of offense and defense? I think it’s very likely yes.

Lol so I cant use the guys direct brother, who he modeled his game after, as an idea on how how he will fare his first four years?

You can but why would you? It’s no more applicable than if I argued Owen Power is playing almost 24 minutes a night of solid hockey and Hughes is traveling in his footsteps.

 

[Billdo]

You think most top defenseman need to wait 4-5 years after they drafted to be able to consider a top 4 guy?

Yes. With the exception of guys like Makar, it's unusual that you see a guy that young being a legit top 4 right away and by legit I mean a guy deserving of that, not someone being pigeonholed there bc their team sucks and they were drafted high.

 

[Forge]

We will see - I think this team may have the best locker room chemistry in the NHL right now and youre seeing it with guys like Haula and Tatar speaking so highly

I personally think that extends to Graves and dont think it impossible to get him at 4.5x3. Hed only be 31 at the end of that deal

That's so unquantifiable though. You're not in this locker room, or other teams locker rooms, etc. Seems like a weird thing to try and make a judgment on. I'd wager you can find a bunch of puff pieces around the league where people are talking about how much they love playing somewhere. I feel like Parise said that quite a bit his last year in new jersey. Words are wind.

 

[Devils731]

Yes. With the exception of guys like Makar, it's unusual that you see a guy that young being a legit top 4 right away and by legit I mean a guy deserving of that, not someone being pigeonholed there bc their team sucks and they were drafted high.

I don’t know, I’m looking at the past few drafts and it certainly looks feasible that a top defensive prospect is a legitimate top 4 guy at 20 years old.

I think that’s a little outdated thinking when the game was more defensive. Physical tools are more important than they used to be and that’s what the younger defenseman are bringing to the table; even with their lack of experience.

 

[Forge]

Yes. With the exception of guys like Makar, it's unusual that you see a guy that young being a legit top 4 right away and by legit I mean a guy deserving of that, not someone being pigeonholed there bc their team sucks and they were drafted high.

Worth commenting that just because a team is bad doesn't mean that the player is in the top 4 by default. Which guys recently drafted in the top 7 over the last 5 years do you think were in the top 4 be default? I think all of those guys really have been top 4 guys for most of their career. Some of them just happened to be on awful teams.

 

[NHL Fanatik]

But will be a top 4 with his net of offense and defense? I think it’s very likely yes.

You can but why would you? It’s no more applicable than if I argued Owen Power is playing almost 24 minutes a night of solid hockey and Hughes is traveling in his footsteps.

A) on a team that struggles defensively versus offensively , and already scores the seventh most in the league, Id disagree that Luke producing but getting caved in his own zone would be a net positive. Maybe for Vancouver when Quinn started but not for us

B) I must be misunderstanding your second point because theres no way you seriously believe that we shouldnt try to use predictors of success/failure.

What do you think an analytics department does? Use NCAA counting stats to say 'yeah, Luke will be top-4 year 2'? No, they cross-reference a players analytics to other players analytics from the same development leagues and those of similar styles tend to pop up, where you can then study the curve of development... Aka a blood brother who you modeled your game after and a father who taught you both the same fundamental ideologies

So its fine if you do believe that you shouldnt ever compare two players to determine how one will do... but Im just gonna leave it at this and say that isnt how a professional sports league worth billions operates

That's so unquantifiable though. You're not in this locker room, or other teams locker rooms, etc. Seems like a weird thing to try and make a judgment on. I'd wager you can find a bunch of puff pieces around the league where people are talking about how much they love playing somewhere. I feel like Parise said that quite a bit his last year in new jersey. Words are wind.

Well its obviously just a personal opinion and doesnt change that I think they should look toward a replacement 2LD before Bahl

However, just in an attempt to quantify it - no team in the league since 16-17 Avalanche have made this kind of leap. And we see what theyve done since. So in that sense at least, the Devils have to be up there in terms of a locker room feeling itself this year