Devils team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - part IV

[NjDevsRR]

if the Senators actually shop Tkachuk this offseason, what does a package look like to acquire him? Fitzgerald obviously tried hard for Matt, and his ratty scummy little game is sorta perfect for a team that the rest of the NHL considers soft as puppy shit.

If Ottawa asks for Bratt straight up, do you make the move?

Probably have to move Mercer/Holtz, Casey, 1st, other pieces

I wouldn’t move Bratt, would be a lateral move in production

 

[TrufleShufle]

On the flipside, I don't see the point in NOT talking about the playoffs until it's literally impossible.

Like I've taken stats classes at an undergrad and grad level, I know how numbers work, blah blah blah.

Still, it's sports. It means nothing. It's more fun to root for the improbable than to sit here miserable waiting for the offseason to start, no matter how stinky the team is.

Oh yea, I make jokes and tell other people it's over if someone ever asks "how the Devils doing," but I'm 100% watching the games with hope until it's mathematically impossible. Why not?

 

[JimEIV]

if the Senators actually shop Tkachuk this offseason, what does a package look like to acquire him? Fitzgerald obviously tried hard for Matt, and his ratty scummy little game is sorta perfect for a team that the rest of the NHL considers soft as puppy shit.

If Ottawa asks for Bratt straight up, do you make the move?

No second thought. I'm pulling the trigger.

 

[MB3]

Probably have to move Mercer/Holtz, Casey, 1st, other pieces

I wouldn’t move Bratt, would be a lateral move in production

Bratt-for-Tkachuk might be a lateral move on a piece of paper but in terms of the type of game he plays, it's definitely not.

 

[JimEIV]

Oh yea, I make jokes and tell other people it's over if someone ever asks "how the Devils doing," but I'm 100% watching the games with hope until it's mathematically impossible. Why not?

I'll keep watching when they are officially eliminated...that doesn't factor much for me.

But I'm not going to make believe a 10% chance of making the playoffs is anything to keep me excited. That's honestly delusional.

 

[NjDevsRR]

Bratt-for-Tkachuk might be a lateral move on a piece of paper but in terms of the type of game he plays, it's definitely not.

Wasn’t implying that. But I don’t think removing one of our captains best friends and one of the leagues best transition forwards is wise.

Adding Brady to what we have should be the goal


Tkachuk Hughes Bratt
Palat Hischier Meier

Oh My

 

[Devils731]

On the flipside, I don't see the point in NOT talking about the playoffs until it's literally impossible.

Like I've taken stats classes at an undergrad and grad level, I know how numbers work, blah blah blah.

Still, it's sports. It means nothing. It's more fun to root for the improbable than to sit here miserable waiting for the offseason to start, no matter how stinky the team is.

It’s like playing Texas hold’em poker. You don’t want to end up in a situation where you’re having to bet on a 2-3 offsuit.

Everyone seeing you bet thinks you’ve lost because whatever hand you’re going against has better odds…but every once in awhile the 2-3 offsuit will win the hand.

So maybe the Devils only have a 5-10% chance to make the playoffs based on their current record and the standings. I wouldn’t want to be on the Devils, the Devils have probably already lost, but 5-10% of the time they’ll end up the winner so how does it help to pretend their winning chance is 0%?

I think it’s people wanting to emotionally protect themselves so they can say “I knew it was over before others” so at least they can feel smart and correct, even if they’re bummed the team didn’t make it.

 

[McDuffz88]

if the Senators actually shop Tkachuk this offseason, what does a package look like to acquire him? Fitzgerald obviously tried hard for Matt, and his ratty scummy little game is sorta perfect for a team that the rest of the NHL considers soft as puppy shit.

If Ottawa asks for Bratt straight up, do you make the move?

Bratt for Tkachuk straight up? Yes absolutely but we wouldn't even need to. Ottawa would want a different package which we can easily do.
1st (top 10 pick), Mercer, Holtz, 2nd would get this wrapped up easily. Tkachuk is a player you win with. He's the true definition of a power forward and lays 3x the amount of hits than Timo does. He's a big dude at 6'5. He's my dream target and I would give up almost anything to get him.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

Jesper Bratt is a better player than Brady Tkachuk. Why would we trade Bratt straight up for him?

Over the past 2 years, Bratt has better advanced metrics and they basically have the exact same total # of points.

Again, I've said this before, I think Brady is a nice player. He is not his brother.

 

[Better Call Sal]

I think it’s people wanting to emotionally protect themselves so they can say “I knew it was over before others” so at least they can feel smart and correct, even if they’re bummed the team didn’t make it.

Or if we make it, those same people will then be upset because it gives Green a shot to be here beyond this season.

 

[AfroThunder396]

I would move Bratt for Matthew Tkachuk. I would not move Bratt for Brady Tkachuk.

 

[JimEIV]

It’s like playing Texas hold’em poker. You don’t want to end up in a situation where you’re having to bet on a 2-3 offsuit.

Everyone seeing you bet thinks you’ve lost because whatever hand you’re going against has better odds…but every once in awhile the 2-3 offsuit will win the hand.

So maybe the Devils only have a 5-10% chance to make the playoffs based on their current record and the standings. I wouldn’t want to be on the Devils, the Devils have probably already lost, but 5-10% of the time they’ll end up the winner so how does it help to pretend their winning chance is 0%?

I think it’s people wanting to emotionally protect themselves so they can say “I knew it was over before others” so at least they can feel smart and correct, even if they’re bummed the team didn’t make it.

2-3 off is at least connected. But I like playing with people that think any hand can win. You can almost always tell when they are chasing a draw and you punish them for it. They either check call a lot or make ridiculous over bets on the flop and check the turn on a miss. Then they always slow play their big hands. Easy money.

 

[Camille the Eel]

Or if we make it, those same people will then be upset because it gives Green a shot to be here beyond this season.

It won’t surprise me if Green is our coach next year regardless of how we finish. And who knows it might or might not be a good move.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

It won’t surprise me if Green is our coach next year regardless of how we finish. And who knows it might or might not be a good move.

if Green is the coach next year, that is a complete and utter failure by the front office.

 

[HBK27]

How the hell are we only 6 points out and we own the tie-breaker over every other team we're chasing?

Not getting sucked in again...every time this team has a solid win and I get a bit of optimism, they follow it up with soul crushing losses to bottom feeder teams. As such, I fully expect them to have a solid game tonight and beat Winnipeg and then lose by 3-4 goals to Ottawa on Saturday.

 

[Better Call Sal]

It won’t surprise me if Green is our coach next year regardless of how we finish. And who knows it might or might not be a good move.

I only see it happening if we somehow go on a run. But I think Fitz is smart enough to know he will have some options for this role. I don't see him lifting the interim tag off him barring a surprise tear.

 

[HBK27]

It won’t surprise me if Green is our coach next year regardless of how we finish. And who knows it might or might not be a good move.

I refuse to believe Fitzgerald could possibly be inept enough to hire Green as our head coach regardless of how this team finishes the season short of going on some miracle run and winning the Cup.

The inept PP is more than enough reason to get that bum out of here.

There should be a handful of significantly more qualified candidates available this offseason and it is a highly desirable position given NJ's window and young talent locked up long-term.

 

[Devils731]

2-3 off is at least connected. But I like playing with people that think any hand can win. You can almost always tell when they are chasing a draw and you punish them for it. They either check call a lot or make ridiculous over bets on the flop and check the turn on a miss. Then they always slow play their big hands. Easy money.

2-3 off is actually worse than 2-7 off, despite being connected. If you had to go all-in pre-flop you should prefer having 2-7 off but most people think 2-7 is the statistically weakest starting hand.

Also, any hand can win so it’s odd to imply that isn’t the case. Every hand has a value and expectation to win; if we are talking poker it’s about knowing others play tendencies and understand your cards value.

 

[NJDevs26]

It won’t surprise me if Green is our coach next year regardless of how we finish. And who knows it might or might not be a good move.

The Fire Fitz thread will start the day after if that’s the case

 

[TrufleShufle]

I'll keep watching when they are officially eliminated...that doesn't factor much for me.

But I'm not going to make believe a 10% chance of making the playoffs is anything to keep me excited. That's honestly delusional.

I'll keep watching regardless. But letting yourself know there is still a chance, when there is, no matter how slim it is, is in no way delusional. Expecting to win out the year and expecting to 100% be in the playoffs would be delusional.

Buying a lottery ticket might be dumb, but checking your numbers the night of isn't delusional. Expecting to win because they are your lucky numbers would be.

We won't have hockey for a while after this, why not let yourself enjoy the very few games left that still "matter" no matter how small a chance? I'm not telling you to, btw. Everyone is free to be as excited or a miserable as they want, but calling others delusional is weird.

 

[NJDevs26]

How the hell are we only 6 points out and we own the tie-breaker over every other team we're chasing?

Not getting sucked in again...every time this team has a solid win and I get a bit of optimism, they follow it up with soul crushing losses to bottom feeder teams. As such, I fully expect them to have a solid game tonight and beat Winnipeg and then lose by 3-4 goals to Ottawa on Saturday.

My prediction is an OT loss where everyone beats their chest over how well we play but since we never actually beat Winnipeg I can’t predict a win, then lose 4-2 on Saturday with Brady getting at least two goals

 

[JimEIV]

2-3 off is actually worse than 2-7 off, despite being connected. If you had to go all-in pre-flop you should prefer having 2-7 off but most people think 2-7 is the statistically weakest starting hand.

There's odds then there's game play...

Everything is situational....you let me see a free flop from the big blind and I hit the flop with a 3-2 off with A, 4, 5 and it wasn't "any hand can win" it was you not raising the big blind off the shit hand to begin with. And God forbid you limped with Aces ... The odds are somewhat irrelevant to the shitty play

And here we are with 13 games left.

 

[Devils731]

There's odds then there's game play...

Everything is is situational....you let me see a free flop from the big blind and I hit the flop with a 3-2 off with A, 4, 5 and it wasn't "any hand can win" it was you not raising the big blind off the shit hand to begin with. And God forbid you limped with Aces ... The odds are somewhat irrelevant to the shitty play

And here we are with 13 games left.

You literally won with the “this hand can’t win” in this scenario so your conclusion that thinking “any hand can win” is delusional is disproven by your own scenario.

To relate back to hockey, the other teams are playing crappy. They’ve given the chance for the Devils to find the straight when they should already be drawing dead.

 

[Cheddabombs]

How the hell are we only 6 points out and we own the tie-breaker over every other team we're chasing?

Not getting sucked in again...every time this team has a solid win and I get a bit of optimism, they follow it up with soul crushing losses to bottom feeder teams. As such, I fully expect them to have a solid game tonight and beat Winnipeg and then lose by 3-4 goals to Ottawa on Saturday.

Come on, join the believers! We're so back*



*subject to change

 

[TrufleShufle]

You literally won with the “this hand can’t win” in this scenario so your conclusion that thinking “any hand can win” is delusional is disproven by your own scenario.

To relate back to hockey, the other teams are playing crappy. They’ve given the chance for the Devils to find the straight when they should already be drawing dead.