Devils team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - part IV

[Bleedred]

Thanks. Great listen.

I didn't find it that demoralizing. Woodley seemed high on Daws and on Rogalski. And he seemed down on Vanecek.

My take-aways were that:
a) Daws / Schmid are probably 1-2 seasons away if they make it at all. Sounds like Woodley feels both have been asked to do too much too soon. It also sounds like he's higher on Daws than Schmid.

b) he doesn't think Rogalski is to blame / thinks Rogalski is a good coach

With Brennan, Poulter, Schmid, and Daws in the minors next year, though, I do wonder if the Devils would find value from an ECHL goalie coach.

I don’t think Rogalski is to blame for things like Jon Gillies, who had an .885% on an expected .905% two years ago. And Gillies hasn’t even played hockey at any level this year and he only turned 30 two months ago, if that tells you anything.

I also think he may not be to blame for the Vitek stuff. Vitek had the goalie/athlete equivalent of a nervous breakdown. I think Keith Kinkaid had something like that similar happen to him at some point in the 18-19 season. That was before Rogalski.

Vitek was gonna be in an endless tailspin here after what happened in the playoffs last year.

I still think Rogalski probably needs to go.

I’m bored anyway, so I’m gonna give that podcast a listen.

 

[guitarguyvic]

Ton of issues is definitely overdoing it.

Number one issue is clearly goaltending. Fitzgerald by all accounts has tried and hasn’t been able to address it. I don’t see the Devils coming out of this off-season without a bonafide goalie or else Fitzgerald’s job might be on the line.

The second biggest issue is the defense, but I chalk a lot of that up to Hamilton’s injury and the rest of the group playing way over their head. Add one solid second pairing defender similar to Graves/Severson caliber (Tanev?) and I think a lot of those issues sort themselves out. A year of development for Luke, Nemec, and Bahl will do wonders to.

The third biggest issue is depth. Last years team was incredibly deep, capable of rolling four lines all season long. This years team was top heavy, the depth of this team were absolute duds except for McLeod who left mid-year, and had Timo/Jack clearly playing at less than 100%. Add a quality middle-six option, a quality bottom six option, and any depth forward that brings something to the table would round out the forward group well.

For the above scenario, add Markstrom, Kylington(?), Henrique, Trenin, and let’s say Duhaime to this team:

Haula - Hughes - Bratt
Palat - Hischier - Meier
Holtz - Henrique - Mercer
Duhaime - Lazar - Trenin
Foote - Bastian - Anyone not named Tierney or Nosek

Siegenthaler - Hamilton
Kylington(?) - Marino
Bahl - Hughes
Hatakka - Nemec

Markstrom
Allen
Schmid/Daws

I would add coaching and physicality (not goons) as additional issues that need to be addressed.

That’s not a short list.

 

[NJDfan86]

I've been catching a lot of the PDOcasts recently and Woodley is not going to badmouth a goalie coach so I wouldn't put a tremendous amount of stock into his statement - his business is based on working with goalies, goalie coaches so its always going to be the lightest criticism possible.

The Belfry episodes are great as well - he is the one who broke down Nemec with Dmitri

 

[Triumph]

I know some people want to be all sunshines and rainbows because we have because we have these still young shiny pieces on the roster, but it’s clear there are a ton of issues that need to be addressed for this team to be anywhere near a contender.

I know that will be labeled “doomer”…I’m not saying we are destined for failure as a foregone conclusion. It’s more about the recognition that management really needs to get their shit together for us to get to where we need to be, and it’s a lot more than just making a couple of simple moves.

You said this in 2022. What got fixed? How were things fixed then?

 

[tailfins]

I don’t think Rogalski is to blame for things like Jon Gillies, who had an .885% on an expected .905% two years ago. And Gillies hasn’t even played hockey at any level this year and he only turned 30 two months ago, if that tells you anything.

I also think he may not be to blame for the Vitek stuff. Vitek had the goalie/athlete equivalent of a nervous breakdown. I think Keith Kinkaid had something like that similar happen to him at some point in the 18-19 season. That was before Rogalski.

Vitek was gonna be in an endless tailspin here after what happened in the playoffs last year.

I still think Rogalski probably needs to go.

I’m bored anyway, so I’m gonna give that podcast a listen.

interested in your thoughts after listening.

Clearly, Woodley is connected to the coaching fraternity, so I'm not sure I take his endorsement of Rogalski at face value. But, he made a compelling case for "development takes time", so maybe it's that?

 

[Triumph]

-8 looks a lot better because of the 4-1 win over St. Louis in that stretch.

Remove that and just look at the 5 they lost it's 10 For 21 Against -11 in 5 games.

They got doubled in those games. 2 For and 4.2 Against.... while playing turtle and hardly producing shots for long 20 and 30 minute stretches.

I am in the office of the orthopedist right now and I took the time to respond to you....you should feel privileged.

I agree that this is probably the Devils' worst stretch of the season play-wise, but yes, they did beat a team quite handily in there, and that counts just as much as any of the other games.

 

[My3Sons]

He does have lousy offensive impacts, he also has lousy defensive impacts as well. Conventional wisdom is a crutch used by those who do not wish to consider alternative options or folks too arrogant to believe they could be wrong. So why am I arguing his deployment isn't necessarily correct? Because it's less about bare bones offense/defense, and I don't care about his past reputation.

Brendan Smith has been bad in his own this year, he has made a lot of mistakes leading to failed exits which results in increased zone time and higher quality chances for the opposition. Why is a coach deploying someone in the DZ who has been bad at exiting zone when a DZ face-off will almost always require a zone exit?

So why would I try deploying him in the OZ draws? Even with his poor play driving and offensive impacts, the outcomes of a OZ draw mitigate his weakness' - he doesn't have to worry about zone entires as the play is already there, he is almost league average in chance creating in the OZ, and if the Devils loose the draw and the opposition exits his transition defense has been an actual strength this year. He will likely still need to have a zone exit if the Devils loose the face-off, but I would rather the puck have to come from the other end through the entire team.

You had me until you said someone too arrogant to be wrong just relies on conventional wisdom. Nothing could be further from the truth. I rely on my own wisdom.

 

[Nubmer6]

I still think Rogalski probably needs to go.

Why didn't you say that sooner on the season!?!?!?

 

[guitarguyvic]

You said this in 2022. What got fixed? How were things fixed then?

Well apparently it didn’t actually get fixed long term, now did it?

 

[Goptor]

I do feel bad for Ruff...never liked his coaching style but I do think he got a raw deal this year.

Force any head coach to have to use 4 rookie Dmen and 2 super young goaltenders along with another goaltender that turned in a Bellevue patient with a slew of soft small forwards that play *sometimes defense"....then hit the entire team with key injuries and no coach had a chance this season. Poor bastard.

I don’t think Rogalski is to blame for things like Jon Gillies, who had an .885% on an expected .905% two years ago. And Gillies hasn’t even played hockey at any level this year and he only turned 30 two months ago, if that tells you anything.

I also think he may not be to blame for the Vitek stuff. Vitek had the goalie/athlete equivalent of a nervous breakdown. I think Keith Kinkaid had something like that similar happen to him at some point in the 18-19 season. That was before Rogalski.

Vitek was gonna be in an endless tailspin here after what happened in the playoffs last year.

I still think Rogalski probably needs to go.

I’m bored anyway, so I’m gonna give that podcast a listen.

Vitek was also known in Washington for going months with top tier play then following it up with months of garbage.

 

[Elias2626]

Man, where to start. It's been Murphy's Law for this team this year - everything that could go wrong, has gone wrong. I think here are the (non-injury related) issues, in ranked order:

1. Goaltending. League-worst goaltending is the primary, but not the only, issue. You're telling me that we aren't 3rd in Metro or in a WC spot if we had Allen/Kakhonen since, say, November?

2. Coaching. There is SO much evidence. (1) Slow starts, falling behind early 75% of the time. (2) Handling of young goalies, i.e. starting Daws seven consecutive games. (3) Performance vs. bad teams. Win those games against ANA, SJ, CBJ, MTL, WSH and you're easily in a playoff spot. (4) Long leash for underperformers, i.e. Luke lately. (5) PP was like 1-for-60, and didn't change personnel. (6) Misuse of key players, i.e. Meier on L3 on his off-wing, Holtz stapled to L4.

3. McLeod. Whether you like it or note, he was a key player for this team. Fast, physical, faceoffs, ability to move throughout the lineup.

4. Lack of F & D Depth. Losing Sharangovich, Wood, Tatar, Zetterlund, Severson, & Graves may have hurt more than we think. Maybe not on an individual-by-individual basis, but in aggregate/team identity. Fast, physical. We'd be better off with Wood, Tatar, and Zetterlund in our bottom-six than Tierney, Bastian, and Nosek.

So, what needs to be done over the summer to get back into a contender?

We need: a #1 goalie, to get Haula to the bottom six, a 3C/4C, and a top 4D.

Palat - Hischier - Meier
XXX - Hughes - Bratt
XXX - Haula - Mercer
XXX - XXX - Lazar

XXX - Hamilton
Hughes - Marino
Bahl - Nemec

Saros/Ullmark/Markstrom
Allen

Notice that Holtz & Siegenthaler are not included there, as I assume that they can/will be traded for upgrades at the goalie or other positions.

List of potential FAs that may fit the XXX slots: Henrique, Bertuzzi, Skjei, Tanev, Pesce

 

[Monsieur Verdoux]

Man, where to start. It's been Murphy's Law for this team this year - everything that could go wrong, has gone wrong. I think here are the (non-injury related) issues, in ranked order:

1. Goaltending. League-worst goaltending is the primary, but not the only, issue. You're telling me that we aren't 3rd in Metro or in a WC spot if we had Allen/Kakhonen since, say, November?

2. Coaching. There is SO much evidence. (1) Slow starts, falling behind early 75% of the time. (2) Handling of young goalies, i.e. starting Daws seven consecutive games. (3) Performance vs. bad teams. Win those games against ANA, SJ, CBJ, MTL, WSH and you're easily in a playoff spot. (4) Long leash for underperformers, i.e. Luke lately. (5) PP was like 1-for-60, and didn't change personnel. (6) Misuse of key players, i.e. Meier on L3 on his off-wing, Holtz stapled to L4.

3. McLeod. Whether you like it or note, he was a key player for this team. Fast, physical, faceoffs, ability to move throughout the lineup.

4. Lack of F & D Depth. Losing Sharangovich, Wood, Tatar, Zetterlund, Severson, & Graves may have hurt more than we think. Maybe not on an individual-by-individual basis, but in aggregate/team identity. Fast, physical. We'd be better off with Wood, Tatar, and Zetterlund in our bottom-six than Tierney, Bastian, and Nosek.

So, what needs to be done over the summer to get back into a contender?

We need: a #1 goalie, to get Haula to the bottom six, a 3C/4C, and a top 4D.

Palat - Hischier - Meier
XXX - Hughes - Bratt
XXX - Haula - Mercer
XXX - XXX - Lazar

XXX - Hamilton
Hughes - Marino
Bahl - Nemec

Saros/Ullmark/Markstrom
Allen

Notice that Holtz & Siegenthaler are not included there, as I assume that they can/will be traded for upgrades at the goalie or other positions.

List of potential FAs that may fit the XXX slots: Henrique, Bertuzzi, Skjei, Tanev, Pesce

I'm not a fan of Bertuzzi. Otherwise, I agree.

 

[MasterofGrond]

I don't necessarily think depth has been the Devils problem, as in they needed better 4th liners or spare forwards (though with all the injuries, it couldn't have hurt).

The Issue IS that they have had a ton of straight negative value players, some of whom were very good last year. Carolina has like 2 bad skaters on the roster, one of whom they just traded for and one of whom is TDA.

Devils have Marino (objectively terrible this year), Siegs (slightly less bad but also missed a bunch of time) Brendan Smith (unimaginably terrible for 46 games), Mercer (straight cheeks), Holtz (bad but maybe not entirely his fault), Bastian (even worse offense than normal), Bahl (bad but manageably so if he were the teams 6th D not its 3D lmao).

What's worse is half of these guys were good to great last season. it's like they get Monstar'd.

 

[Guadana]

Man, where to start. It's been Murphy's Law for this team this year - everything that could go wrong, has gone wrong. I think here are the (non-injury related) issues, in ranked order:

1. Goaltending. League-worst goaltending is the primary, but not the only, issue. You're telling me that we aren't 3rd in Metro or in a WC spot if we had Allen/Kakhonen since, say, November?

2. Coaching. There is SO much evidence. (1) Slow starts, falling behind early 75% of the time. (2) Handling of young goalies, i.e. starting Daws seven consecutive games. (3) Performance vs. bad teams. Win those games against ANA, SJ, CBJ, MTL, WSH and you're easily in a playoff spot. (4) Long leash for underperformers, i.e. Luke lately. (5) PP was like 1-for-60, and didn't change personnel. (6) Misuse of key players, i.e. Meier on L3 on his off-wing, Holtz stapled to L4.

3. McLeod. Whether you like it or note, he was a key player for this team. Fast, physical, faceoffs, ability to move throughout the lineup.

4. Lack of F & D Depth. Losing Sharangovich, Wood, Tatar, Zetterlund, Severson, & Graves may have hurt more than we think. Maybe not on an individual-by-individual basis, but in aggregate/team identity. Fast, physical. We'd be better off with Wood, Tatar, and Zetterlund in our bottom-six than Tierney, Bastian, and Nosek.

So, what needs to be done over the summer to get back into a contender?

We need: a #1 goalie, to get Haula to the bottom six, a 3C/4C, and a top 4D.

Palat - Hischier - Meier
XXX - Hughes - Bratt
XXX - Haula - Mercer
XXX - XXX - Lazar

XXX - Hamilton
Hughes - Marino
Bahl - Nemec

Saros/Ullmark/Markstrom
Allen

Notice that Holtz & Siegenthaler are not included there, as I assume that they can/will be traded for upgrades at the goalie or other positions.

List of potential FAs that may fit the XXX slots: Henrique, Bertuzzi, Skjei, Tanev, Pesce

Yeah, lets not make a dive into Bertuzzi ocean. And I dont think we need in big deal of old RD Tanev. We need left handed version of that.
Noesen would be great for our depth. Trenin may be too. Devils need more forechecking and fast forwards. Foote isnt the answer.

 

[My3Sons]

I don't necessarily think depth has been the Devils problem, as in they needed better 4th liners or spare forwards (though with all the injuries, it couldn't have hurt).

The Issue IS that they have had a ton of straight negative value players, some of whom were very good last year. Carolina has like 2 bad skaters on the roster, one of whom they just traded for and one of whom is TDA.

Devils have Marino (objectively terrible this year), Siegs (slightly less bad but also missed a bunch of time) Brendan Smith (unimaginably terrible for 46 games), Mercer (straight cheeks), Holtz (bad but maybe not entirely his fault), Bastian (even worse offense than normal), Bahl (bad but manageably so if he were the teams 6th D not its 3D lmao).

What's worse is half of these guys were good to great last season. it's like they get Monstar'd.

Are you sure Mercer isn't curved cheeks?

 

[MasterofGrond]

Are you sure Mercer isn't curved cheeks?

I'd post some comparative pictures for you to ascertain which type of cheeks best represents his season, but I think I would prefer to keep posting for the next week or so.

 

[My3Sons]

I'd post some comparative pictures for you to ascertain which type of cheeks best represents his season, but I think I would prefer to keep posting for the next week or so.

Why would posting images of braised or smoked slow cooked pork cheeks get you infracted? I saw them recently on tv on a BBQ competition show and nobody from standards and practices objected.

 

[Forge]

I’ve never listened to the PDOcast before, but I listened to this and I thought it was excellent. Be warned, I found it demoralizing, because as they talked about all these various goaltenders and how teams are thinking about goalies and developing them all I could think about is how far behind the curve the team is compared to the rest of the league.

PDOcast is probably my favorite hockey podcast out there.

There are a lot of fun episodes, but also some really good data that gets thrown out there.

 

[Brodeur]

I don’t think Rogalski is to blame for things like Jon Gillies, who had an .885% on an expected .905% two years ago. And Gillies hasn’t even played hockey at any level this year and he only turned 30 two months ago, if that tells you anything.

// fantasy hockey rant incoming

A few years back, friend of a friend joined our league. Unfortunately our annual draft was right around the corner so we didn't vet him ahead of time. Guy proceeded to use a high first round to take a broken Jake Gardiner. We had to stop the draft for ten minutes to tell him why that was a bad idea but he was certain we were full of it. Gardiner never did play again and didn't quite "dominate" like the guy predicted he would.

A few months later, I offered him Ryan Getzlaf for a second tier prospect Sampo Ranta. Figured if he wanted Gardiner that badly, he might want another vet. He acted like I asked for something outrageous. Ranta is back in Europe now, but guy still has him on his roster.

Guy also inherited Jon Gillies. When Gillies got those starts for us, I gave him some advice and told him (non-playoff team) that he ought to trade Gillies if he could since he was only getting those starts through extenuating circumstances. But he thought I was trying to Jedi mind trick him or something. Gillies remains on his roster.

It's been a few years, but every draft we'll make Jake Gardiner jokes at his expense. And after looking at his roster, he's still holding onto Zach Senyshyn.
[/coolstorybro]

 

[Elias2626]

I mean, let's just be real about where the Devils stand vs. their key competition over the next few years. Assuming these depth charts at full strength/full health:

Palat - Hischier - Meier
Haula - Hughes - Bratt
Foote - Lazar - Mercer
Bastian - Nosek - Holtz

Siegenthaler - Hamilton
Hughes - Marino
Bahl - Nemec


Svechnikov - Aho - Teravainen
Guentzel - Kuznetsov - Necas
Martinook - Staal - Jarvis
Noesen - Kotkaniemi - Fast

Slavin - Burns
Skjei - Pesce
Orlov - Chatfield


Kredier - Zibanejad - Roslovic
Panarin - Trocheck - Lafreniere
Cuylle - Chytil - Kakko
Vesey - Wennberg - Goodrow

Lindgren - Fox
Miller - Trouba
Gustafsson - Schneider


L1: Devils probably second to Carolina.
L2: Devils likely equal with NYR.
L3: Devils are worst.
L4: Devils are worst.

1D: Devils are worst.
2D: Devils probably second to Carolina.
3D: Devils might have the advantage here, assuming Nemec progresses well.

G: Worst as of now. We'll see about next season if we get a #1. Would still be 2nd to NYR.

 

[Unknown Caller]

I mean, let's just be real about where the Devils stand vs. their key competition over the next few years. Assuming these depth charts at full strength/full health:

Palat - Hischier - Meier
Haula - Hughes - Bratt
Foote - Lazar - Mercer
Bastian - Nosek - Holtz

Siegenthaler - Hamilton
Hughes - Marino
Bahl - Nemec


Svechnikov - Aho - Teravainen
Guentzel - Kuznetsov - Necas
Martinook - Staal - Jarvis
Noesen - Kotkaniemi - Fast

Slavin - Burns
Skjei - Pesce
Orlov - Chatfield


Kredier - Zibanejad - Roslovic
Panarin - Trocheck - Lafreniere
Cuylle - Chytil - Kakko
Vesey - Wennberg - Goodrow

Lindgren - Fox
Miller - Trouba
Gustafsson - Schneider


L1: Devils probably second to Carolina.
L2: Devils likely equal with NYR.
L3: Devils are worst.
L4: Devils are worst.

1D: Devils are worst.
2D: Devils probably second to Carolina.
3D: Devils might have the advantage here, assuming Nemec progresses well.

G: Worst as of now. We'll see about next season if we get a #1. Would still be 2nd to NYR.

Too difficult to make comparisons like this because it's entirely dependent on line construction and variable factors. For example, are you accounting for player development? Aging curves?

A healthy Hughes/Bratt is the best first line out of any of those teams, and a healthy Hischier/Meier is the best second line out of any of those teams.

The bottom 6 and goaltending is going to be entirely reconstructed before next season, so impossible to evaluate that.

The defense will be dependent on the development of Hughes, Nemec, and Bahl/Hattaka and Dougie's recovery.

In short, it's impossible to do this analysis until (a) we see what offseason moves are made and (b) we see how certain key players develop and/or recover from injury depending on the case.

 

[MasterofGrond]

Just a couple notes:

Teravainen, Guentzel, Martinook, Skjei, and Pesce are UFA. Given that Jarvis is gonna get a fat raise, there's zero chance they are all resigned.

Rangers UFAs are Wennberg, Roslovic, and Gustafsson

Devils UFAs are Nosek and literally nobody else of note.

If Hughes is healthy, I would bet any line with him and Bratt on it is gonna be better than a Panarin-Trochek line, even before you factor in age-related decline.

 

[Zippy316]

I would add coaching and physicality (not goons) as additional issues that need to be addressed.

That’s not a short list.

New coach is a given this off-season.

Physicality can be addressed by new additions (someone like Trenin would help a ton in that department). Some other depth guys that add a bit of snarl were missing.

It is a short list in actuality when a lot of the core pieces are there. Two #1C, two #1W, and arguably a #1D in Hamilton with two more likely on the way between Luke and Nemec.

 

[guitarguyvic]

New coach is a given this off-season.

Physicality can be addressed by new additions (someone like Trenin would help a ton in that department). Some other depth guys that add a bit of snarl were missing.

It is a short list in actuality when a lot of the core pieces are there. Two #1C, two #1W, and arguably a #1D in Hamilton with two more likely on the way between Luke and Nemec.

The issue as I see it is that Fitz needs to really nail these things. His track record with the coaching and goaltending in particular has not been great. Beyond those things, I also have major concerns about how accountability is being fostered in this org and how player injuries are being handled.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

I mean, let's just be real about where the Devils stand vs. their key competition over the next few years. Assuming these depth charts at full strength/full health:

Palat - Hischier - Meier
Haula - Hughes - Bratt
Foote - Lazar - Mercer
Bastian - Nosek - Holtz

Siegenthaler - Hamilton
Hughes - Marino
Bahl - Nemec


Svechnikov - Aho - Teravainen
Guentzel - Kuznetsov - Necas
Martinook - Staal - Jarvis
Noesen - Kotkaniemi - Fast

Slavin - Burns
Skjei - Pesce
Orlov - Chatfield


Kredier - Zibanejad - Roslovic
Panarin - Trocheck - Lafreniere
Cuylle - Chytil - Kakko
Vesey - Wennberg - Goodrow

Lindgren - Fox
Miller - Trouba
Gustafsson - Schneider


L1: Devils probably second to Carolina.
L2: Devils likely equal with NYR.
L3: Devils are worst.
L4: Devils are worst.

1D: Devils are worst.
2D: Devils probably second to Carolina.
3D: Devils might have the advantage here, assuming Nemec progresses well.

G: Worst as of now. We'll see about next season if we get a #1. Would still be 2nd to NYR.

its a good thing hockey isn't played on paper!

Coaching is the biggest thing. We need a system that is made for our roster. Sullivan would be perfect in that regard if Pittsburgh cans him.