Devils team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - part IV

[Triumph]

The team just lost 5 of their last 6 games.

They not only lost, they're getting crushed. We've scored 14 in the last 6 games and allowed 22.

The season is over.

How is that being crushed? Going 1-5 while scoring 14 and allowing 22 is not the Pythagorean expectation.

I guarantee almost every team in the NHL has a -8 goal differential over a 6 game stretch. I'll say that 30 teams have one.

That said, the Devils have not played well and they have earned this -8 goal differential, but let's not pretend like this is some enormous spiral.

 

[HBK27]

32 Thoughts: Is more NHL expansion on the horizon?

In his first post-trade deadline thoughts, Elliotte Friedman writes about some moves that didn't happen and what it could mean for the summer, and also ponders how different the NHL might look in a few years.

www.sportsnet.ca

1. Some things left over from the trade deadline: It’s going to be a very interesting goalie market this summer. Calgary pulled back Jacob Markstrom, Nashville did the same with Juuse Saros. Boston investigated Linus Ullmark, punting that decision down the road. New Jersey acquired Jake Allen and Kaapo Kahkonen, maintaining flexibility to add someone else if they so choose. Allen had to waive his no-trade, and was smart to do so. By agreeing to move now, he won’t have to worry about finding a dance partner when there’s more supply. That’s one of the reasons Boston considered breaking up its excellent duo, because the summer market will be more crowded. A glut is great for shoppers, not sellers.

2. Amidst everything else, Calgary’s maintained that a major reason it did not trade Markstrom to New Jersey is the return was not strong enough. Watching what’s happened since Noah Hanifin and Chris Tanev were traded, I’d be extremely careful with him. Not that he’s giving up goals, he’s great at what he does and everyone sees what’s happened, but protecting him from injury. He’s missed games here and there — including Tuesday against Colorado — and you cannot allow whatever is bothering him to affect the offseason.

5. It was a hard week for Ullmark. He badly wanted to stay in Boston, getting his wish. While he and GM Don Sweeney wouldn’t comment, the goalie declined to waive his no-trade for one location, believed to be Los Angeles. No problems here; that’s his right, in his contract. But I do believe the Bruins looked at more than one option, including somewhere Ullmark cannot block. Obviously, those didn’t happen, and we’ll see how things evolve. Boston rejected at least one ask about Jeremy Swayman.

9. We will see how things unfold in the postseason, but Edmonton did show interest in extending both Adam Henrique and Sam Carrick.

12. Alex Killorn’s four-year, $6.25M AAV deal in Anaheim definitely is a target point for free-agent wingers. It loomed large over the Tyler Toffoli negotiations in New Jersey, with the Devils mindful of term. Winnipeg was very aggressive on Toffoli and made sure they did what they could to get him. Jordan Eberle wanted three years from Seattle, but the Kraken held firm at two. Edmonton and the Rangers had interest. Honestly, I wondered if Eberle would show up with a “C” on his jersey when he played game 1,000 on Tuesday. You can see a path to the captaincy for him.

 

[JrFischer54]

The point in firing Lindy was for one to hopefully light a fire under the ass of a team that is perceived as underachieving. Two it was a mercy killing with how things were unraveling. Three it's a continuation of trouble shooting for Fitz and his management. Yeah Green doesn't impress me at all. Was hoping he wouldn't named interm. I still think Fitz could so what Lou used to do and get behind the bench. Get a better feel of what's wrong naad what's right which is nothing right now.

at this rate has an interm head coach ever been fired in the same season?

its insanely bad the team hasn't responded even remotely

 

[Blackjack]

For the record, I posted the tweet since it was a thread tweet and I thought people would be interested to read a detailed point of view about the team’s struggles and the “tough hockey” discussion has been going on for a few days.

I agree with your notion of playing “tough”. It’s not about the fighting. It’s about playing hard, forechecking and standing your ground.

As a guy that generally likes CJ’s content, even when I disagree with it, that thread pissed me off. It came off to me as someone petulantly refusing to acknowledge some pretty obvious problems with the team because they contradict his priors. CJ is highly invested in the idea that NJ is full of high skill forwards and defensemen, and that those players will ultimately carry the day when they’re healthy and the team finds solid goaltending. Admitting that this team is soft throws all that in the garbage, and he’s simply not willing to that in the face of clear evidence.

I’ve seen, for years this team struggle to forecheck and maintain time in the zone. Struggle to win board battles, struggle to impose themselves physically when needed, get pinned in their own end, etc. etc. etc. They don’t force turnovers, they don’t create havoc in the zone. They have a rush and it’s (usually) stopped and immediately comes out of the zone. This year I’ve seen our players refusing to body check at all. Just pulling up on guys as they release the puck and not even bumping them. I don’t know where it’s coming from, but it’s really really apparent. And whatever you think of it, it’s just weird to act like it’s not happening.

But anytime people point any of this out, the CJs act like we’re asking for Mason Geertsons or Kurtis MacDermids. It’s the f***ing opposite. I was frustrated when they went out and got MacDermid because I knew that that’s what they did instead of getting the kind of forward the team actually needs.

 

[Devils731]

I'm trying not to get too dramatic about it, but my worst fear is that we hear nothing until Jack gets surgery in September and he misses 3 months to start the season.... Gahhhhhhh

I’m no expert but some googling around looks like shoulder stabilization surgery is about a 5-6 month recovery for a hockey player.

So for me, I’d shut down Hughes soon to get the surgery so he can be finishing rehab and basically be fit for training camp.

I hope the team is just holding on to playoff hopes right now, which may mean only a few more games before they give that up and shut Hughes down. It seems like he could play another month and possibly still be ready for the season to start next year.

 

[Zippy316]

If Toffoli is targeting that retirement contract like Killorn got, hard pass. Fully understand that deal from Killorn’s perspective wanting to cash in after winning 3 cups and Anaheim overpaying for a good example while they have cap space. Should absolutely not be the standard.

If Toffoli was looking for 6, I’d rather just target a guy like Henrique for 3-3.5 million and Trenin for 2-2.5 with that money.

 

[TrufleShufle]

If Toffoli is targeting that retirement contract like Killorn got, hard pass. Fully understand that deal from Killorn’s perspective wanting to cash in after winning 3 cups and Anaheim overpaying for a good example while they have cap space. Should absolutely not be the standard.

If Toffoli was looking for 6, I’d rather just target a guy like Henrique for 3-3.5 million and Trenin for 2-2.5 with that money.

I'd rather Henrique regardless of contract due to his more varied skill set. As we've seen, we need players who can move around and don't need to be in one singular position to succeed. Plus having another C option helps in many situations, from timing and score of a game, to injuries.

 

[Blackjack]

I’ve never listened to the PDOcast before, but I listened to this and I thought it was excellent. Be warned, I found it demoralizing, because as they talked about all these various goaltenders and how teams are thinking about goalies and developing them all I could think about is how far behind the curve the team is compared to the rest of the league.

 

[Zippy316]

I’ve never listened to the PDOcast before, but I listened to this and I thought it was excellent. Be warned, I found it demoralizing, because as they talked about all these various goaltenders and how teams are thinking about goalies and developing them all I could think about is how far behind the curve the team is compared to the rest of the league.

Dimitri’s podcast is a fun listen especially with Woodley. Earlier in the year they had one on Markstrom’s fit with the Devils and Woodley is really bullish on the stylistic match.

Also was a fun deep dive on Nemec a month or so ago where they dissected his game. They included a clip on YouTube of all of his highlights too.

 

[Bcap88]

Someone else can give cement skates Toffoli the killorn contract

 

[guitarguyvic]

I know some people want to be all sunshines and rainbows because we have because we have these still young shiny pieces on the roster, but it’s clear there are a ton of issues that need to be addressed for this team to be anywhere near a contender.

I know that will be labeled “doomer”…I’m not saying we are destined for failure as a foregone conclusion. It’s more about the recognition that management really needs to get their shit together for us to get to where we need to be, and it’s a lot more than just making a couple of simple moves.

 

[devilsblood]

So your answer is conventional wisdom?

Because he is lousy on offense. Hes better defensively


There you made me say it.

 

[ZYXWVUT]

i am starting to actually think this markstrom thing isn't going to happen - i have been pretty firm since the smoke started that a deal would eventually come to fruition.

 

[Zippy316]

I know some people want to be all sunshines and rainbows because we have because we have these still young shiny pieces on the roster, but it’s clear there are a ton of issues that need to be addressed for this team to be anywhere near a contender.

I know that will be labeled “doomer”…I’m not saying we are destined for failure as a foregone conclusion. It’s more about the recognition that management really needs to get their shit together for us to get to where we need to be, and it’s a lot more than just making a couple of simple moves.

Ton of issues is definitely overdoing it.

Number one issue is clearly goaltending. Fitzgerald by all accounts has tried and hasn’t been able to address it. I don’t see the Devils coming out of this off-season without a bonafide goalie or else Fitzgerald’s job might be on the line.

The second biggest issue is the defense, but I chalk a lot of that up to Hamilton’s injury and the rest of the group playing way over their head. Add one solid second pairing defender similar to Graves/Severson caliber (Tanev?) and I think a lot of those issues sort themselves out. A year of development for Luke, Nemec, and Bahl will do wonders to.

The third biggest issue is depth. Last years team was incredibly deep, capable of rolling four lines all season long. This years team was top heavy, the depth of this team were absolute duds except for McLeod who left mid-year, and had Timo/Jack clearly playing at less than 100%. Add a quality middle-six option, a quality bottom six option, and any depth forward that brings something to the table would round out the forward group well.

For the above scenario, add Markstrom, Kylington(?), Henrique, Trenin, and let’s say Duhaime to this team:

Haula - Hughes - Bratt
Palat - Hischier - Meier
Holtz - Henrique - Mercer
Duhaime - Lazar - Trenin
Foote - Bastian - Anyone not named Tierney or Nosek

Siegenthaler - Hamilton
Kylington(?) - Marino
Bahl - Hughes
Hatakka - Nemec

Markstrom
Allen
Schmid/Daws

 

[theoptimist]

Siegenthaler-Hamilton is kinda like standing someone up on a first date

 

[Bleedred]

i am starting to actually think this markstrom thing isn't going to happen - i have been pretty firm since the smoke started that a deal would eventually come to fruition.

Why? Nothing we can do with it right now. It’ll have to wait until the offseason.

 

[My3Sons]

As a guy that generally likes CJ’s content, even when I disagree with it, that thread pissed me off. It came off to me as someone petulantly refusing to acknowledge some pretty obvious problems with the team because they contradict his priors. CJ is highly invested in the idea that NJ is full of high skill forwards and defensemen, and that those players will ultimately carry the day when they’re healthy and the team finds solid goaltending. Admitting that this team is soft throws all that in the garbage, and he’s simply not willing to that in the face of clear evidence.

I’ve seen, for years this team struggle to forecheck and maintain time in the zone. Struggle to win board battles, struggle to impose themselves physically when needed, get pinned in their own end, etc. etc. etc. They don’t force turnovers, they don’t create havoc in the zone. They have a rush and it’s (usually) stopped and immediately comes out of the zone. This year I’ve seen our players refusing to body check at all. Just pulling up on guys as they release the puck and not even bumping them. I don’t know where it’s coming from, but it’s really really apparent. And whatever you think of it, it’s just weird to act like it’s not happening.

But anytime people point any of this out, the CJs act like we’re asking for Mason Geertsons or Kurtis MacDermids. It’s the f***ing opposite. I was frustrated when they went out and got MacDermid because I knew that that’s what they did instead of getting the kind of forward the team actually needs.

The soft play issue is real, but at the same time, they were soft last year and overcame it. One easy solution is to replace guys that just take up space like Tierney and Nosek and so on and add some guys that can forecheck and play with some edge. I'd have no problem with a guy like Smith as a fourth line left winger for example. Where he has less resposnibitliy and can just hit and play solid defense for a wing forward. I'd bring back Noesen if Carolina doesn't extend him and I'd have a heart to heart with Bastian after the season about getting back to his more abrasive style of play. I'm sure the McLeod situation has worn on him with how close they were and he's had shoulder woes as well. He's with NJ for another year so hopefully he's healthy and enthusiastic to play in the fall. I'd like to add a guy with some edge in the top six but that's a tall order.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

I know some people want to be all sunshines and rainbows because we have because we have these still young shiny pieces on the roster, but it’s clear there are a ton of issues that need to be addressed for this team to be anywhere near a contender.

I know that will be labeled “doomer”…I’m not saying we are destined for failure as a foregone conclusion. It’s more about the recognition that management really needs to get their shit together for us to get to where we need to be, and it’s a lot more than just making a couple of simple moves.

Not really at all. Our two future franchise dmen need to come of age and we need our current franchise defenseman and franchise center to get healthy. Beyond that, only a goalie and solid depth pieces are needed. Don’t need much more than a couple simple moves, excluding the possible substantial move for a goalie. And picking the right coach, of course.

The only player of any consequence I could see moving to shake things up would be Mercer.

 

[tailfins]

I’ve never listened to the PDOcast before, but I listened to this and I thought it was excellent. Be warned, I found it demoralizing, because as they talked about all these various goaltenders and how teams are thinking about goalies and developing them all I could think about is how far behind the curve the team is compared to the rest of the league.

Thanks. Great listen.

I didn't find it that demoralizing. Woodley seemed high on Daws and on Rogalski. And he seemed down on Vanecek.

My take-aways were that:
a) Daws / Schmid are probably 1-2 seasons away if they make it at all. Sounds like Woodley feels both have been asked to do too much too soon. It also sounds like he's higher on Daws than Schmid.

b) he doesn't think Rogalski is to blame / thinks Rogalski is a good coach

With Brennan, Poulter, Schmid, and Daws in the minors next year, though, I do wonder if the Devils would find value from an ECHL goalie coach.

 

[My3Sons]

I know some people want to be all sunshines and rainbows because we have because we have these still young shiny pieces on the roster, but it’s clear there are a ton of issues that need to be addressed for this team to be anywhere near a contender.

I know that will be labeled “doomer”…I’m not saying we are destined for failure as a foregone conclusion. It’s more about the recognition that management really needs to get their shit together for us to get to where we need to be, and it’s a lot more than just making a couple of simple moves.

You aren't wrong, but it's not any single area need complete renovation with the exception of goalies either. Some of it is just having patience for Luke and Nemec to become consistent which will only happen with more experience. But I'm not replacing them in the meantime. They have to play to learn. Beyond that, they will get Hamilton back and hopefully they can upgrade one of Siegenthaler or Bahl. Take your pick. Obviously they need a goalie. Up front just get rid of the guys that don't do anything and get some guys that will forecheck and play with some edge. It's a laundry list and it will take some effort by the front office but it's not that difficult with the exception of the goalie. That's been difficult given the extortion teams are demanding. Oh, and for heaven's sake hire a good coach. Why is that so difficult?

 

[My3Sons]

Thanks. Great listen.

I didn't find it that demoralizing. Woodley seemed high on Daws and on Rogalski. And he seemed down on Vanecek.

My take-aways were that:
a) Daws / Schmid are probably 1-2 seasons away if they make it at all. Sounds like Woodley feels both have been asked to do too much too soon. It also sounds like he's higher on Daws than Schmid.

b) he doesn't think Rogalski is to blame / thinks Rogalski is a good coach

With Brennan, Poulter, Schmid, and Daws in the minors next year, though, I do wonder if the Devils would find value from an ECHL goalie coach.

I'm sorry, did you say Rogalski is a good coach? Someone fire up the Bleedsignal. I can't believe @Bleedred will stand for this.

 

[JimEIV]

How is that being crushed? Going 1-5 while scoring 14 and allowing 22 is not the Pythagorean expectation.

I guarantee almost every team in the NHL has a -8 goal differential over a 6 game stretch. I'll say that 30 teams have one.

That said, the Devils have not played well and they have earned this -8 goal differential, but let's not pretend like this is some enormous spiral.

-8 looks a lot better because of the 4-1 win over St. Louis in that stretch.

Remove that and just look at the 5 they lost it's 10 For 21 Against -11 in 5 games.

They got doubled in those games. 2 For and 4.2 Against.... while playing turtle and hardly producing shots for long 20 and 30 minute stretches.

I am in the office of the orthopedist right now and I took the time to respond to you....you should feel privileged.

 

[Bleedred]

I'm sorry, did you say Rogalski is a good coach? Someone fire up the Bleedsignal. I can't believe @Bleedred will stand for this.

I still think he needs to go at the end of the year. Fitz burned down the goalie position at the deadline. Can’t see why he wouldn’t burn it down at the coaching level as well.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

-8 looks a lot better because of the 4-1 win over St. Louis in that stretch.

Remove that and just look at the 5 they lost it's 10 For 21 Against -11 in 5 games.

They got doubled in those games. 2 For and 4.2 Against.... while playing turtle and hardly producing shots for long 20 and 30 minute stretches.

I am in the office of the orthopedist right now and I took the time to respond to you....you should feel privileged.

what the hell lol thats not how this stuff works

 

[NJDfan86]

Because he is lousy on offense. Hes better defensively


There you made me say it.

He does have lousy offensive impacts, he also has lousy defensive impacts as well. Conventional wisdom is a crutch used by those who do not wish to consider alternative options or folks too arrogant to believe they could be wrong. So why am I arguing his deployment isn't necessarily correct? Because it's less about bare bones offense/defense, and I don't care about his past reputation.

Brendan Smith has been bad in his own this year, he has made a lot of mistakes leading to failed exits which results in increased zone time and higher quality chances for the opposition. Why is a coach deploying someone in the DZ who has been bad at exiting zone when a DZ face-off will almost always require a zone exit?

So why would I try deploying him in the OZ draws? Even with his poor play driving and offensive impacts, the outcomes of a OZ draw mitigate his weakness' - he doesn't have to worry about zone entires as the play is already there, he is almost league average in chance creating in the OZ, and if the Devils loose the draw and the opposition exits his transition defense has been an actual strength this year. He will likely still need to have a zone exit if the Devils loose the face-off, but I would rather the puck have to come from the other end through the entire team.