Devils team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - offseason part III

[NJDevs26]

Askarov couldn't wait one year to backup and potentially two years to start?

Regardless, NJ didn't have the assets to better SJ offer

Yeah I don't mind him wanting out of the trap Nashville put him in but wanting a path to a backup job 'this' year comes off as entitled.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

Pat Verbeek, Jason Arnott, Bill Guerin...they all held out and if I sat and really thought about I'm sure I can come up another half dozen.

how many of them were coming off their rookie deal with no arbitration rights...........?

 

[Guadana]

Sorry to actually plan for the future as some (not you) seem to really hate to do, but I would prefer 3 years, as we have A few bigger contracts (i.e. Palat) coming off the books then, and we'll be able to gine him a large, long term contact.

I mean we could probably do it in 2 years too, but it would probably involve paying to have Palat or someone else off the books. Hell, we may do it anyway.

I just can't yo worry about. I like Dawson, liked him much more than Holtz in the draft day. But he isn't core player yet. He will become much better - great, we have good player, lets trade Palat deal away. If he is about the same, - go give him one more year "prove me" deal or sign long term on reasonable deal. Devils will sign Luke and Simon, so long term we should think about Nico first.

 

[Camille the Eel]

Mercer's probably our most expendable and replaceable "good young player", when you think about it.

He's a 40-50 point (As of now) winger who is fine defensively 5-on-5 and can PK or play PP. Our outstanding prospect forwards are all wingers who will be on the team in a year or two (Gritsyuk, Lenni, other guys maybe).

Bridge works well in this case. Two years at a reasonable rate, reevaluate then. Maybe we can sign him long term after that, or maybe we have a good trade chip / can replace from within. It's a win-win to me.

I totally agree except the only thing I would add is that I think it’s possible that he has a breakout year this season under a new coach in a different system and also due to making progress in his development. He may be employed differently too. I can see him scoring more and possibly being bumper on a power play. He developed a good one timer from the slot last year that he got off fast and from slightly behind him but was inaccurate with hitting the net consistently. When he did hit the net he scored. So he may throw off calculations and if he does it will be a good problem to have.

Prediction here is 2 years at 3.5, 3.75 if we have that cap space.

 

[Billdo]

It makes perfect sense for the Devils...not so much for Dawson.

They can't afford a max deal now so I doubt that's even a discussion point.

Also Haula, Noesen Palat don't come close to what Luke and Nemec are going to get combined. Those two could be 15 or more million... maybe a lot more.

I hope that's the problem we run into tbh.

 

[JimEIV]

I hope that's the problem we run into tbh.

Luke is going to get an obscene contract deserving or not.

And I'm sure they won't sandbag him like they did Mercer....you imagine if they put Luke on the 3rd pairing, take away much of his PP time, force him into a defensive posture and ask him to kill penalties...then claim he had a "down year" in a contract year?

Yeah...that ain't happening but it did to Mercer.

 

[TheUnseenHand]

Your Mercer obsession is interesting. I get he's wholesome and he's a fisherman. But frankly he has something to prove after last season where he was pretty mediocre if not quite bad for long stretches.

 

[The Grinder]

I love how protective Jim is of Mercer.

I don’t see anywhere how his current contract negotiations can be equated to sandbagging him. It seems rather normal RFA stuff and yes his last season did inject some uncertainty into the whole situation. I absolutely think the Jarvis extension gave the Mercer camp a little extra negotiating power and a precedent for his contract.

 

[AfroThunder396]

If Mercer wants a long term deal at 6-7M he has two options:

1.) Bet on himself like Bratt did, by taking a 1 year deal at 3.5M and coming back to the table next summer with a next stronger hand.

2.) Build a time machine and go back to last fall, and not have a dog shit season this time.

The situation he’s in is 100% his fault, he was pencilled into the top-6 last year and almost immediately played himself out because he couldn’t get points to save his life. Considering he can’t play center effectively and is bad defensively, he kinda needs to score points to be a contributor.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

Luke is going to get an obscene contract deserving or not.

And I'm sure they won't sandbag him like they did Mercer....you imagine if they put Luke on the 3rd pairing, take away much of his PP time, force him into a defensive posture and ask him to kill penalties...then claim he had a "down year" in a contract year?

Yeah...that ain't happening but it did to Mercer.

this is super weird. Mercer did not have a good season last year, and he was maybe even worse in the playoffs the year before.

how do you know they are "sandbagging" him? You have no idea what was offered or what he is asking for.

 

[Devs3cups]

Mercer will get done. This happens with a lot of "higher profile" RFA's. Doesn't look like an anomaly at all to me, seems pretty common.

 

[JimEIV]

Your Mercer obsession is interesting. I get he's wholesome and he's a fisherman. But frankly he has something to prove after last season where he was pretty mediocre if not quite bad for long stretches.

Like Meier?

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

Like Meier?

did Mercer have two injured knees and a bum shoulder last year?

and even with that, Meier had 20 more points than Mercer did, while playing 13 less games.

why are we making this comparison anyways? Weird stuff.

 

[glenwo2]

It's always something, isn't it? lol

 

[MasterofGrond]

Luke played a ton at ES and on the PP because he was the teams best option for that role for 3/4 of the season, as a rookie. The only time he wasn’t was when he clearly hit the rookie wall, played like shit for 15 games and then came out the other side good as new.

He was more valuable last year than Mercer ever has been and I am a Mercer fanboy.

 

[TheUnseenHand]

Like Meier?

Meier began doing that towards the end of the season as he began recovering from multiple serious injuries. However, yes, Meier has a lot to prove as well. And while I'm not necessarily a huge fan of his deal, he has a much longer track record than Mercer.

 

[JimEIV]

Luke played a ton at ES and on the PP because he was the teams best option for that role for 3/4 of the season, as a rookie. The only time he wasn’t was when he clearly hit the rookie wall, played like shit for 15 games and then came out the other side good as new.

He was more valuable last year than Mercer ever has been and I am a Mercer fanboy.

A defenseman like Luke, is always going to be more valuable than a
middle 6 forward regardless of the circumstances... I am just as big a fan of Luke as I am Dawson so I am not pitting the two against each other...

That said, Luke could have easily and justifiably been benched at various points of last season...he certainly could've had his minutes significantly reduced and his situations limited...that really never happened. Not remotely. In 82 games Luke played less 18 minutes only 9 times all year... And 3 of those 9 were in October when he was actually playing very well.

When he clearly hit a wall his minutes weren't reduced at all, in fact, January and February were some of his biggest minutes of the year... January and February the Devils played 24 games he was never under 20 minutes once in those 24 games...he was over 22 minutes 16 times in those 24 games and a lot of those games he was well over 23/24 minutes a game when he was playing his absolute worst. 10 of the 24 games in January and February Luke was over 23 minutes a night.

Valuable? It was a good showing for a rookie defender...how valuable a rookie defender is might be another conversation. Most people like to dismiss the "uglys" from rookies and focus on the potential...maybe justifiably so?

 

[The Grinder]

A defenseman like Luke, is always going to be more valuable than a
middle 6 forward regardless of the circumstances... I am just as big a fan of Luke as I am Dawson so I am not pitting the two against each other...

That said, Luke could have easily and justifiably been benched at various points of last season...he certainly could've had his minutes significantly reduced and his situations limited...that really never happened. Not remotely. In 82 games Luke played less 18 minutes only 9 times all year... And 3 of those 9 were in October when he was actually playing very well.

When he clearly hit a wall his minutes weren't reduced at all, in fact, January and February were some of his biggest minutes of the year... January and February the Devils played 24 games he was never under 20 minutes once in those 24 games...he was over 22 minutes 16 times in those 24 games and a lot of those games he was well over 23/24 minutes a game when he was playing his absolute worst. 10 of the 24 games in January and February Luke was over 23 minutes a night.

Valuable? It was a good showing for a rookie defender...how valuable a rookie defender is might be another conversation. Most people like to dismiss the "uglys" from rookies and focus on the potential...maybe justifiably so?

Now my memory ain’t the best, but I’m pretty sure there was a very valid reason why Luke’s minutes weren’t reduced during that stretch last year, as in we literally had no one else to take those minutes due to injuries.

 

[Better Call Sal]

 

[NJDevs26]

I love how protective Jim is of Mercer.

I don’t see anywhere how his current contract negotiations can be equated to sandbagging him. It seems rather normal RFA stuff and yes his last season did inject some uncertainty into the whole situation. I absolutely think the Jarvis extension gave the Mercer camp a little extra negotiating power and a precedent for his contract.

His point is that they sandbagged him by playing him on the third line and artifically kept his numbers down. I don't really agree with that, especially since he had a lot of top six time he did nothing with either (not to mention they were under a certain amount of pressure from like December on to start winning games) but given all the contract shenanigans Lou used to pull with guys like Dunham I can't really blame Jim for being paranoid lol

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

Mercer kept his own numbers down. His play for most of the year was atrocious, no matter what line he was on.

 

[Lou Bloom]

A defenseman like Luke, is always going to be more valuable than a
middle 6 forward regardless of the circumstances... I am just as big a fan of Luke as I am Dawson so I am not pitting the two against each other...

That said, Luke could have easily and justifiably been benched at various points of last season...he certainly could've had his minutes significantly reduced and his situations limited...that really never happened. Not remotely. In 82 games Luke played less 18 minutes only 9 times all year... And 3 of those 9 were in October when he was actually playing very well.

When he clearly hit a wall his minutes weren't reduced at all, in fact, January and February were some of his biggest minutes of the year... January and February the Devils played 24 games he was never under 20 minutes once in those 24 games...he was over 22 minutes 16 times in those 24 games and a lot of those games he was well over 23/24 minutes a game when he was playing his absolute worst. 10 of the 24 games in January and February Luke was over 23 minutes a night.

Valuable? It was a good showing for a rookie defender...how valuable a rookie defender is might be another conversation. Most people like to dismiss the "uglys" from rookies and focus on the potential...maybe justifiably so?

Hamilton, Siegenthaler and Smith were out with injuries during January and February, Luke even with his flaws was still clearly one of the best options on defense.

Mercer ended the season with the 6th most Average TOI for forwards only behind Jack, Nico, Meier, Bratt and Toffoli, despite having an extremely underwhelming season, if anything the Devils were overly lenient considering his play, In no way was he sandbagged.

 

[TheUnseenHand]

Hamilton, Siegenthaler and Smith were out with injuries during January and February, Luke even with his flaws was still clearly one of the best options on defense.

Mercer ended the season with the 6th most Average TOI for forwards only behind Jack, Nico, Meier, Bratt and Toffoli, despite having an extremely underwhelming season, if anything the Devils were overly lenient considering his play, In no way was he sandbagged.

Unlike Holtz...

 

[MadDevil]

It's always amusing to see which kids Jim goes to war for and which are disappointments and disgraces.

 

[Billdo]

Luke is going to get an obscene contract deserving or not.

And I'm sure they won't sandbag him like they did Mercer....you imagine if they put Luke on the 3rd pairing, take away much of his PP time, force him into a defensive posture and ask him to kill penalties...then claim he had a "down year" in a contract year?

Yeah...that ain't happening but it did to Mercer.

You think that was all by design for Mercer?