Devils team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - offseason edition

[Eggtimer]

Our xGA was -41 at years end I believe, so 25-30 less goals isn't a stretch.


Pretty sure it's been confirmed that Bernier was nursing an injury since training camp. This certainly has an effect.

Plus scorig was up around the entire league as well

 

[Bleedred]

Bernier also had a .914% or .913% (I forget what it was? Better than his career average and this year's league average though) before that last game he played up in Winnipeg where he was blown out.

Now, I'm usually the first one bitching about the cherrypicking stuff and the whole ''Well if this didn't happen, his save percentage would been this much higher'' stuff, but I think it's okay in this context. With how low of a sample size of games Bernier played, save percentage can WILDLY fluctuate A LOT between games with that small of a sample size of data of games used. One big blowout (like his last game) can tank it (like it did), while one shutout or even just low goals amount on A LOT of shots faced can raise it a whole lot.

 

[Eggtimer]

At this point we can go back and forth forever about exactly how much of a difference goaltending screwed us but why? We are getting one this off-season , Fitz will do what he can and we will see how it shakes out. I am in the mindset that a “good” goalie , an improved PP , add a defensive RHD and replace Smith with one of the kids and we are close to being around a goal differential good enough to think about a wild card spot. Yes we have some issues besides goaltending but it’s impossible to know how bad it is based off of having the worst goaltending in the league last year.

 

[JimEIV]

I wonder out of those 307 goals he's using as the foundation of his argument wouldn't have been in the if we had league average goaltending. I'd say it is probably 20-25 less over the course of the year which puts us closer to breaking even than not.

The point is you can't get league average goaltending playing the way we do.

Our xGA was -41 at years end I believe, so 25-30 less goals isn't a stretch.


Pretty sure it's been confirmed that Bernier was nursing an injury since training camp. This certainly has an effect.

Lets' call it 30 less goals allowed - That is STILL a -29 Goal differential... That is still garbage. The fictitious -29 goal differential would have put us at 21st in the league.

So the 11 worst team in the league with the fantasy -29 versus the actual 5th worst team in league? Doesn't look different to me.

 

[Bleedred]

The point is you can't get league average goaltending playing the way we do.

Lets' call it 30 less goals allowed - That is STILL a -29 Goal differential... That is still garbage. The fictitious -29 goal differential would have put us at 21st in the league.

So the 11 worst team in the league with the fantasy -29 versus the actual 5th worst team in league? Doesn't look different to me.

I think you can get league average goaltending playing the way we do, we just have to HAVE a league average goalie.

We did not.

There's no guarantee that Blackwood is any good and it's really all just the injuries. He had a HISTORICALLY bad season in the AHL in 17-18, that really sets off red flags when you see his last two years.

Bernier was probably average, but I don't expect him to be anymore. Not after this injury and not at this age.

Gillies is BARELY AHL level.

Hammond is BARELY AHL LEVEL. I almost think Hammond is gonna retire after this year, that's how badly he played.

Daws was NOT READY for the NHL. He's not yet NHL caliber. He played more games in the NHL than Martin Brodeur when he was that age. He's clearly not ready. If ever will be, it's not gonna be any tme soon. After his early hot streak, he regressed into the very raw and unseasoned goalie he is. He did play A LOT better than the two AHL vets we were playing though. I'll give him that much.

Schmid was even less NHL ready.

 

[AfroThunder396]

Bernier also had a .914% or .913% (I forget what it was? Better than his career average and this year's league average though) before that last game he played up in Winnipeg where he was blown out.

Now, I'm usually the first one bitching about the cherrypicking stuff and the whole ''Well if this didn't happen, his save percentage would been this much higher'' stuff, but I think it's okay in this context. With how low of a sample size of games Bernier played, save percentage can WILDLY fluctuate A LOT between games with that small of a sample size of data of games used. One big blowout (like his last game) can tank it (like it did), while one shutout or even just low goals amount on A LOT of shots faced can raise it a whole lot.

Just like how Blackwood's season SV% drops from a bad .892 to a horrendous .885 just by removing the 42 save NYI shutout.

 

[bossram]

Kakko is another player primed to get an offersheet. Even at 4.1mil for a 2nd would put the Rangers in a bind. If they match they have $6.7M left in cap space to sign Copp or Strome (probably Copp), Vatrano, Blais, and Motte. I'm not a big Kakko fan, but he plays a style we're looking for. Also maybe it makes Copp available which is a plus. Again I'm not the biggest fan of him, so I hope another team does it. I'm hoping for one of the Russian kids to fall to us in the 2nd.

Kakko is an interesting player in that mold as well. His defensive game has come along and he's a big body that can protect the puck on the cycle. He's also still very young.

I think I'd still prefer Pulu though. He's got a lot more speed/pace, which I think could make him a nicer fit alongside someone like Hughes or Bratt.

 

[Eggtimer]

Kakko is an interesting player in that mold as well. His defensive game has come along and he's a big body that can protect the puck on the cycle. He's also still very young.

I think I'd still prefer Pulujujarvi though. He's got a lot more speed/pace, which I think could make him a nicer fit alongside someone like Hughes or Bratt.

It will be interesting to see what the Oilers do. Can’t see them being able to afford Kane Yamamoto and Jesse. That’s why I’m not sure I want to trade for Fiala . If it buggers up our anilty to better shape the roster I’ll be pissed.

 

[SKNJD9]

Routine stop after routine stop blowing by our goalies.

Blame the defense

 

[JimEIV]

I think you can get league average goaltending playing the way we do, we just have to HAVE a league average goalie.

We did not.

There's no guarantee that Blackwood is any good and it's really all just the injuries. He had a HISTORICALLY bad season in the AHL in 17-18, that really sets off red flags when you see his last two years.

Bernier was probably average, but I don't expect him to be anymore. Not after this injury and not at this age.

Gillies is BARELY AHL level.

Hammond is BARELY AHL LEVEL. I almost think Hammond is gonna retire after this year, that's how badly he played.

Daws was NOT READY for the NHL. He's not yet NHL caliber. He played more games in the NHL than Martin Brodeur when he was that age. He's clearly not ready. If ever will be, it's not gonna be any tme soon. After his early hot streak, he regressed into the very raw and unseasoned goalie he is. He did play A LOT better than the two AHL vets we were playing though. I'll give him that much.

Schmid was even less NHL ready.

We used 7 goaltenders this season - None were remotely close to league average

4 last season - Comrie was a .909 in 1 game played - the rest were nowhere near league average...

4 goaltenders the season before that - Blackwood managed a .915 over 47 games - None of the other 3 were remotely close to league average...And with the .915 over 47 games we were the 6th worst team in the league.

We watched Wedgewood at .891 this season over 3 games and .900 over 16 games the season before - Only to leave here and post a .911 with Arizona over 26 games and a .913 with Dallas over 8 games. Why? Just variance? To small of a sample? I suspect Any of the goaltenders we used over the last 3 years would post better SV% on other teams not in the bottom 5 of the league.

I know you are unwilling to admit it, but those SV% numbers are not solely the result of the goaltender alone.

 

[JimEIV]

Brodeur had 12 shutouts in 2007, 11 in 2004 , 10 in both 97 and 1998...


We've had 9 Shutouts in the last 3 years

 

[RangerDoggo]

Boy, while you were out fishing, you sure had time to create a Plan B narrative since your go-to one crumbled into dust, huh?

Look, I'm not saying it's 100% on goaltending like CJ has been, but it's where the lion's share of the blame should go. The man responsible for the defensive structure is out, and our personnel there is leaps and bounds over what it was a couple of years ago. A new system there will make things better, but so will getting a goaltender that isn't a plank of wood.

 

[None Shall Pass]

Well now that we've established that Gilles and Daws are not as good as one of the greatest goaltenders of all time

 

[RangerDoggo]

Jim, there's a world of difference between saying "the goaltending numbers are not solely the fault of the goaltenders themselves and some blame needs to be placed on the system" (I agree with this 100%) and saying "no goaltender could be good playing the way we do" (this is just whining for the sake of it). The fact that you give no examples to back up your theory outside of goaltending numbers isn't helping the way you think it is.

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

I mean Ruff's system is meant to leave goalies out to dry from his years in Dallas and Buffalo show that for a cherry picking type of offense, which can lead to some gaudy goal scoring games but also blowouts the other way. But at the same time, we saw simple shots going in on our goalies that had no business going in. So I'm in the middle when it comes to blaming solely Ruff + solely the goalies to what happened this year.

 

[JimEIV]

Boy, while you were out fishing, you sure had time to create a Plan B narrative since your go-to one crumbled into dust, huh?

Look, I'm not saying it's 100% on goaltending like CJ has been, but it's where the lion's share of the blame should go. The man responsible for the defensive structure is out, and our personnel there is leaps and bounds over what it was a couple of years ago. A new system there will make things better, but so will getting a goaltender that isn't a plank of wood.

I am waiting to post all the things I wrote while I was gone...Can't go all once...I have like 3 page on the Travis Zajac appreciation night game when Jack equaled his previous two years goal totals this season with a goal in that game...then shortly after he equaled his previous two years point totals...I have been gone that long

It was actually mostly positive....But not totally...I mean like 92.6% positive -- Like a really good Save percentage.

 

[glenwo2]

I am waiting to post all the things I wrote while I was gone...Can't go all once...I have like 3 page on the Travis Zajac appreciation night game when Jack equaled his previous two years goal totals this season with a goal in that game...then shortly after he equaled his previous two years point totals...I have been gone that long

It was actually mostly positive....But not totally...I mean like 92.6% positive -- Like a really good Save percentage.

Is Jack still a "disgrace"?

 

[Mgd31]

I am waiting to post all the things I wrote while I was gone...Can't go all once...I have like 3 page on the Travis Zajac appreciation night game when Jack equaled his previous two years goal totals this season with a goal in that game...then shortly after he equaled his previous two years point totals...I have been gone that long

It was actually mostly positive....But not totally...I mean like 92.6% positive -- Like a really good Save percentage.

I don't believe you.

 

[Emperoreddy]

Oh we trying to gaslight ourselves into thinking the goaltending wasn't the worst in the league?

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

Oh we trying to gaslight ourselves into thinking the goaltending wasn't the worst in the league?

100% were but Ruff's system isn't goalie friendly either.

 

[Guttersniped]

As often happens, the point was missed.

Goaltending requires bringing in one new player. Defense requires one UFA signing for the 3-RD and an in-house fix at 3-LD. I also said in-house options could be considered for the 3rd line (Zetterlund, Foote, Boqvist), though I'd bring in one new player.

Coaching staffs are routinely changed by NHL teams and the Devils are already going that route. Fixing the late round drafting requires changing the strategy back to how it was with the same scouting staff under Shero.

Always nice when you write a detailed post trying to set a nice, logical blueprint for all the HFBoards Devils fans, and someone gives it a cursory skim-over before ripping it in a two-sentence post.

What if you really like complaining tho?

 

[RangerDoggo]

100% were but Ruff's system isn't goalie friendly either.

Agreed. Clean up the defensive structure and you still have the issue of odd-man rush counters. Still, with new strategies, that could change.

By the way, Mitch Korn is leaving the Islanders, seems like we should get on that.

 

[TrufleShufle]

Oh we trying to gaslight ourselves into thinking the goaltending wasn't the worst in the league?

Are you gaslighting people into thinking anyone is actually saying that? Or are all they are doing is daring to say anything else might also be wrong with the team while forgetting to put the disclaimer "I know goalies are the biggest problem but."

Tell you what, anyone that thinks we don't/didn't have insanely bad goaltending this year please reply to this post so we can finally point you out. If no one does, can we finally drop this line of argument anytime anyone brings up anything else?

 

[Guttersniped]

Oh we trying to gaslight ourselves into thinking the goaltending wasn't the worst in the league?

Lots of teams could have had incredible success getting 32 total starts out of both starters, have both of those starters begin the season dealing with injuries that would eventually cause them to be shut them down, have those starters play hurt (a lot), also lose their 3rd goalie after he plays 8 periods of hockey, then have no other goalies with any professional experience in the organization so they have two real rookies start 27 games, then have a goalie they got for Future Considerations start 14 games and then trade for 34 year AHL goalie coming off an ankle injury and have him start 7 games.

 

[NJDevs26]

Even if you want to believe the system sucks and every goalie would be worse here, how can you extrapolate that from this season where the Devils played gimps, bums and raw rookies? Or last year when Blackwood also missed a bunch of time, had breathing issues post-COVID and they played #3 and #4 goalies for 3/8 of the season because the backup spaced out in camp?