Devils team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - offseason edition

[glenwo2]

Need a bounce back from Dougie. A bit of a underrated story line in this season, but Dougie going from top d-man in the league who never missed games to injured, and then not good, was a significant hindrance on the season.

I thought Graves was good (others disagree I think) . Tatar's OK.

Point was we have added some vets. Though maybe not enough? Still I think the vet adds that are needed should not be high priced guys. Dougie made sense as we needed a top pair D-man, especially a RHD. I don't think the need is the same for a goal scoring winger. Not with Shara, Mercer, Bratt, Holtz and possibly Slaf.

Of course it was all undermined by the goal tending, which skews everything.

I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt here due to his surgery, and that damn helmet he had to wear.

Now if he's still crapping the bed when he's playing WITHOUT it, *then* I will start feeling concerned.

 

[devilsblood]

I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt here due to his surgery, and that damn helmet he had to wear.

Now if he's still crapping the bed when he's playing WITHOUT it, *then* I will start feeling concerned.

Ya, and the foot might be as big as the jaw, but combine the two and it's a difficult situation for him.

He's been a high end d-man for years, he looked very good early. Have to believe he'll be back to high end play next year.

If anything was learned from these playoffs is that goaltending is hyper important and can take even a mediocre/bad 5 on 5 team through multiple rounds

This is nothing new though.

What I think has been learned is that what we have had to battle through in terms of keeping goalies healthy, and the ramifications when they are not, is fairly widespread throughout the league.

 

[devilsblood]

Uh, no bc I said FO% is a shit stat a bunch of times and during the game Ray Ferraro went into detail about which side the faceoff was on would matter as to who would take it, and that having Copp available to take faceoffs was big bc it'd allow Zib, a better fo guy to be a shooter.

FO% is stupid bc a faceoff at center ice counts the same as one on the PK or PP or with 1minute left.

The impact was that the Rangers tied the game at one with the Vatrano goal. Kinda pokes holes in your argument.

Ya a situation where important details get lost in the larger sample size.

 

[OlfactoryHughes]

You cannot simply just say "okay lets develop only the kids and we'll be fine!" These young guys need to be supplemented with the right veterans, and so far that has not happened on this team.

What "cost controlled" blue chip prospects do we have right now? Dawson Mercer. Thats it. We dont know what Holtz or #2 overall will be and we should stop projected them to be sure-fire stars when that just isn't reality.

Hughes, Hischier, Bratt, etc are all not on their ELCs anymore.

I've seen plenty of what we've got, and it isn't good enough. They need to bring in help outside the organization in the form of winning veteran players.

Blue chip prospects = Luke, Slaf/Wright, to a lesser extent Holtz and maybe Grits

Cost controlled chips = Mercer

Homegrown value contracts = Hughes, Nico, with speculation Bratt and Severson aren’t trying to break the bank.

Devils are shaping up to ice a very deep
And talented team, while everyone is still young enough to compete.

At this point in time, IMO, I would rather see what these guys can do, and hope for an absolute power house team in a couple years, then start trading away 2oa’s, and Holtz level prospects for guys that we have to pay like free agents, in a year or two (DeBrincat, Fiala)

Do I think the team needs to make smart signing and trades to become competitive? Of course, and if we do need to make trades to reach that goal, I would rather see the assets go towards a goalie, defensive upgrade or heavier third line, before we start peddling off our chips on future free agent wingers when the time between now, and their next contracts is not projected to be about contention.

 

[devilsblood]

Great. Chytil's line was by far the Rangers' best in the playoffs. Chytil himself was the only Ranger to finish in the black in xGF%, he was +9 in shots on a team that was -112 overall. So yeah, he would've done better if he could win more faceoffs, but the Rangers using him 13 minutes a game was probably because of faceoffs in part, and that was bad management.

I'm sure some here could have predicted my response to this but...

Chytil had a 64% offensive zone faceoff % in the playoffs. Zibanejad was at 41%. (Rooney was sub 40%). Not even sure how they calculate off zone start % but Chytil was over 70%.

I don't have the playoff breakdown, but during the reg season Chytil faced elite comp 23% of his toi. Zibanejad was at 38%. Uber confident that Zibanejad continued playing against tougher comp in the playoffs.

So Chytil's line had the better stats, but was it their best line in the playoffs? Usage has to be considered, so I'm not sure it was.

 

[LeedsMonster]

Johnsson will likely be gone, Tatar will very likely be back, especially if we draft a certain Slovakian who he became a bit of a mentor to.

McLeod can start as 4C with his speed but I’d like to bring in guys like Nico Sturm and Johan Larsson who could fill in for him or even Boqvist if they struggle or get injured.

Cody Eakin is a good option too

 

[LeedsMonster]

Dougie and Graves were seemingly good adds.

Tatar is a floater. I was fine with signing him but I was clearly wrong. Guys like him, Zacha, etc need to go.

I wouldnt say Tatar is a floater. He's definitely declining, and I was personally against signing him, but I was pleasantly surprised by how physical he actually was. Dude is a competitor with a good motor and I think we could do worse on the 3rd line. Zacha though....

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

Blue chip prospects = Luke, Slaf/Wright, to a lesser extent Holtz and maybe Grits

Cost controlled chips = Mercer

Homegrown value contracts = Hughes, Nico, with speculation Bratt and Severson aren’t trying to break the bank.

Devils are shaping up to ice a very deep
And talented team, while everyone is still young enough to compete.

At this point in time, IMO, I would rather see what these guys can do, and hope for an absolute power house team in a couple years, then start trading away 2oa’s, and Holtz level prospects for guys that we have to pay like free agents, in a year or two (DeBrincat, Fiala)

Do I think the team needs to make smart signing and trades to become competitive? Of course, and if we do need to make trades to reach that goal, I would rather see the assets go towards a goalie, defensive upgrade or heavier third line, before we start peddling off our chips on future free agent wingers when the time between now, and their next contracts is not projected to be about contention.

again its just a matter of opinion, but I dont care about the cap or contracts. I want the best players possible, and the right players. We have no idea what Holtz will be or what #2 will be. I agree that Luke looks very promising. I would much rather get the known, top line player now even if it means they have to be paid. Remember, after next year you have a lot of dead weight dropping off in Johnsson, Tatar, etc. You can always manipulate the cap if you have to. and again I am not even saying I would definitively trade #2, but if the right offer for a guy like a Tkachuk or Meier presents itself, then I am all about it. These guys are still mid-20s....its not like I am saying to trade it for JT Miller whos 29

and yes, we all understand that the goalie position needs to be addressed regardless of anything else.

 

[Hisch13r]

If anything was learned from these playoffs is that goaltending is hyper important and can take even a mediocre/bad 5 on 5 team through multiple rounds

If you’re getting historically good goaltending then yeah. It’s incredibly rare you find anyone in the history of the sport who is able to do what Igor did

how are you nerds STILL talking about faceoffs lol

This is one of the staples of the board. The faceoff arguments almost come up as often as the “Lou f***ed us at the end vs No he didn’t” and they both take over for days at a time

 

[Hisch13r]

Johnsson will likely be gone, Tatar will very likely be back, especially if we draft a certain Slovakian who he became a bit of a mentor to.

McLeod can start as 4C with his speed but I’d like to bring in guys like Nico Sturm and Johan Larsson who could fill in for him or even Boqvist if they struggle or get injured.

Tatar should be gone by the time that certain Slovakian is on the team. Throwing him right into the league is a sure fire way to f*** him up and make sure he never reaches his potential

 

[Csonked Out]

I'm extremely curious what we do with Damon Severson this off-season. I prefer to trade him as i'm not too interested in paying him the contract I expect him to get but I really don't know what to expect

Also an under the radar player i'm watching is Lawson Crouse, think he would be a good fit and has gotten better and better every year.

 

[PKs Broken Stick]

Ya, and the foot might be as big as the jaw, but combine the two and it's a difficult situation for him.

He's been a high end d-man for years, he looked very good early. Have to believe he'll be back to high end play next year.


This is nothing new though.

What I think has been learned is that what we have had to battle through in terms of keeping goalies healthy, and the ramifications when they are not, is fairly widespread throughout the league.

What I don't understand is what a jaw and foot injury has to do with him suddenly making terrible decisions on the ice. Perhaps he's more of a guy who uses his physical tools to excel?

 

[BurntToast]

Listen, the problem is the “3rd line”not the Super Buddies line. If Mikey was actually playing 4th line center and not 2nd line (21’ Season) or 3rd libe (22’ Season) then we are fine.

The real issue is Boq, he did well down the stretch but he is better suited for a top 6. I am not saying the Devils need a traditional “1checking line” but if it’s not a scoring line then…

This is were a top 6 wing could help. It could bump Shara back down to 3. Also is Mercer a Center or wing?

Like others have said having Wright start out as a 3rd line center, wouldn’t be the worst problem.

 

[Hisch13r]

I'm extremely curious what we do with Damon Severson this off-season. I prefer to trade him as i'm not too interested in paying him the contract I expect him to get but I really don't know what to expect

Also an under the radar player i'm watching is Lawson Crouse, think he would be a good fit and has gotten better and better every year.

He's not getting traded. If he was getting traded it would've been done at this past deadline. He's either getting re-signed or moved in season.

 

[Jack Be Quick]

Because that happens far more often than teams scoring a goal direct off a faceoff win. For every goal scored right off a faceoff when the other team doesn't touch the puck, there are like ninety-nine other times where the puck gets cleared or changes possession at least once after the faceoff before a goal.

*cue the Sykora goal in the 2003 SCF being posted any minute now, since you guys are gonna find every example of goals off faceoffs as confirmation bias

People are mostly arguing semantics anyway. It's not that the people who say faceoffs are unimportant on the whole don't admit there are certain situations where they can be more important. It's more because the ones who think they're really important are greatly overexaggerating said importance (and the ability to control the odds), because it leads to a goal on a very small percentage of plays with there being a one faceoff margin over every ten draws between even the best and worst faceoff guys.

I don't have to go back that far. In fact I don't have to go back more than 15 or so hours:



But I'm sure it's all the same if Killorn won that and Hedman circled behind the net with it.

 

[Hisch13r]

Listen, the problem is the “3rd line”not the Super Buddies line. If Mikey was actually playing 4th line center and not 2nd line (21’ Season) or 3rd libe (22’ Season) then we are fine.

The real issue is Boq, he did well down the stretch but he is better suited for a top 6. I am not saying the Devils need a traditional “1checking line” but if it’s not a scoring line then…

This is were a top 6 wing could help. It could bump Shara back down to 3. Also is Mercer a Center or wing?

Like others have said having Wright start out as a 3rd line center, wouldn’t be the worst problem.

Lindy did come to his senses the last 35 games of the year. Boqvist was moved up 3C and McLeod was 4C.

Unless Yegor stops producing at a 1st line level when he's played with talent I really don't have much of an interest in moving him down. I think if you move him down you could see a considerable drop off in production whereas maybe you could move down a player that is better than him but the production drop off is not as much. Mercer is both and you can play him where is needed

I'm not even going to let myself believe that Montreal is stupid enough to pass up on Wright

 

[Hisch13r]

You'd think the fact that you'd have to go back to 2017 to even find a Cup winning team that was in the top half in playoff FO% (even then they were only 8th at 50.4% and the year before they were 7th at 50.5%) would make it clear that on a macro level faceoffs are not all that important

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

I don't have to go back that far. In fact I don't have to go back more than 15 or so hours:



But I'm sure it's all the same if Killorn won that and Hedman circled behind the net with it.

Bellemare was 51% on faceoffs in the postseason. Copp was 44%. The skill that matters so much is barely even detectable over the course of a game. You found one faceoff that “mattered”. What about the dozens that meant absolutely nothing? Tampa even had an “advantage” in the dot there and lost.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

Tatar should be gone by the time that certain Slovakian is on the team. Throwing him right into the league is a sure fire way to f*** him up and make sure he never reaches his potential

I don’t know I think he could make it out of camp or he could start in the AHL. Either way having Tatar at camp and around the organization could be helpful for him. If he’s in the AHL there’s a decent chance he would get at least a couple games in at some point too.

At the very least a familiar veteran mentor from his home country around for his first NHL camp wouldn’t be terrible for him.

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

I'm extremely curious what we do with Damon Severson this off-season. I prefer to trade him as i'm not too interested in paying him the contract I expect him to get but I really don't know what to expect

Also an under the radar player i'm watching is Lawson Crouse, think he would be a good fit and has gotten better and better every year.

I think if he would've gotten traded, it would've been this past deadline. Also the rumors him taking a discount should help us, at the absolute worst he gets traded at next year's deadline but we won't get saved like the Palmieri with Lou being senile unless someone goes crazy for Sevo at 50% retained. I'd love to keep him as well, I think he gets a bad rep from some Devils fans that he had to be a 1D in one of worst stretches in franchise history. He's more of a 3-4D who can do a lot that goes unrecognized but his first mistake in like 4-5 games tends to be really bad.

I don't have to go back that far. In fact I don't have to go back more than 15 or so hours:



But I'm sure it's all the same if Killorn won that and Hedman circled behind the net with it.

Powerplay + empty net situations are the only times they matter because possession is vital for both. You're making others peoples point even more indirectly by arguing this, lmao.

 

[Mgd31]

I'm extremely curious what we do with Damon Severson this off-season. I prefer to trade him as i'm not too interested in paying him the contract I expect him to get but I really don't know what to expect

Also an under the radar player i'm watching is Lawson Crouse, think he would be a good fit and has gotten better and better every year.

I hope we re-sign him. I think they will and will let Graves go.

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

I hope we re-sign him. I think they will and will let Graves go.

I think Graves is a place holder for Muk playstyle wise but lineup wise it'll obviously be Luke who comes in for him in 23-24.

 

[ninetyeight]

You can offersheet Kakko all you want, but there's no way he signs it at 4m. Him signing a devils offersheet would totally burn bridges with their fans and possibly management, so it would have to be worth it. So 6-7m at least.

I think offersheeting Puljujärvi is a huge gamble, he's not the player you think he is. I know you guys are expecting a Sam Bennett like change of scenary bounce back and there's bunch of charts suggesting a potential breakout being thrown out, but I just don't believe it. He has some serious IQ issues on and off the ice, he has hard time bonding with players when he's unable to learn english. Both McDavid and Draisatl have (indirectly I think?) gone on record saying they'd rather play with someone else than Jesse. Anything is possible, and I'm usually wrong on all things, but it would be terrible to be stuck paying 5+m for a 30pts player who makes bad decisions on the ice.

I think Zacha is way better than Puljujärvi even if he lacks effort and compete level. I think we sometimes overvalue players outside our team since we are so critical of our own players. Both Johnsson and Tatar looked like good 0.5ppg players before joining the Devils, now most want to get rid off them.

 

[Hisch13r]

You can offersheet Kakko all you want, but there's no way he signs it at 4m. Him signing a devils offersheet would totally burn bridges with their fans and possibly management, so it would have to worth it. So 6-7m at least.

I think offersheeting Puljujärvi is a terrible gamble, he's not the player you think he is. I know you guys are expecting a Sam Bennett like change of scenary bounce back and there's bunch of charts suggesting a potential breakout being thrown out, but I just don't believe it. He has some serious IQ issues on and off the ice, he has hard time bonding with players when he's unable to learn english. Both McDavid and Draisatl have (indirectly I think?) gone on record saying they'd rather play with someone else than Jesse. Anything is possible, and I'm usually wrong on all things, but it woyld be terrible to be stuck paying 5+m for a 30pts player who makes bad decisions on the ice.

I think Zacha is way better than Puljujärvi even if he lacks effort and complete. I think we sometimes overvalue players outside our team since we are so critical of our own players and they might look good on other (especially good) teams. Both Johnsson and Tatar looked like good 0.5ppg players before joining the Devils, now most want to get rid off them.

Puljujarvi is one of the best two way playdriving wings in the league. He’s one of the best forecheckers in the league. Both McDavid and Draisaitl control the chances more and control the goals more when he is out there with them. There’s not even a comparison between Puljujarvi and Zacha. Puljujarvi could literally stay exactly the same and he’s still worth it. Who is out here suggesting 5+ mil for him??

I don’t need any production improvement from this. He can be a 30-40 pt 3rd liner and I’m taking that everyday over a 2nd round pick or something. Or you stick him with Jack and Bratt and let Puljujarvi forecheck away and retrieve all pucks for them while they do their thing

 

[ninetyeight]

Puljujarvi is one of the best two way playdriving wings in the league.

He definitely isn't. I can pretty confidently say I've seen him play more than most here since I've also watched him play here in Finland, not to mention almost all Oilers playoff games, where he was far from great. Like I said you can find advanced stats and charts that support your claim, I'm just telling you the eyetest doesn't support it. If it did the Oilers and their fans wouldn't be getting rid of him.
Also I'd be very sceptical about any stats that come from playing with the two of the best forwards in the game.

5m was just an example, but it'd would have to be something close to it for him to sign it.