Devils team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - offseason edition

[JimEIV]

Lol well Slafkovsky is 230lbs at 18 years old.

He's going to look like Gulliver in Lilliput

 

[glenwo2]

That guy is such a clown.

 

[Cheddabombs]

This is the real sign of a turnaround, finally having an actual beat reporter

 

[glenwo2]

Or maybe you just look bad, Period.

 

[Darkauron]

Yeah I knew from the beginning that guy was a hack fraud. It is easy to throw shit against the wall and speculate

 

[Hisch13r]

Height isn't the entire picture.

Hischier 175 lbs
Hughes 175 lbs
Bratt 175 lbs
Mercer - 180 lbs

Alex DeBrincat is listed at 165 lbs

That's super tiny.

Holtz 195 lbs and Sharangovich 196 are just about league average.

9th in average weight as a team this year…

 

[Captain3rdLine]

9th in average weight as a team this year…

To be fair our d-core carries that. And then our 4th line forwards.

But at the same time weight is far from everything. Guys like Hischier, Bratt and Mercer aren’t heavy but they battl hard and are strong in the puck.

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

So the goal is to have competitive first-round exits rather than building a contender?

Also what's the point of trading elite picks/prospects for "win now" pieces, when you have holes in your bottom six and completely messed up goaltending situation?

If the Devils trade away pieces with potentially very good cap hit to quality ratio (e. g. #2 pick) and add expensive pieces that will soon require their UFA contracts, they'll hit the salary cap limit without having the top 5 roster in the league. And I thought that the whole point of suffering is to build a contending core, not to dig yourself into the hole with panic moves because the fanbase got impatient.

Who legit said this? You're acting like I'm advocating for someone like J.T Miller with the second overall pick, it's a 24 year old elite sniper who literally fits our core with his age range. People have to stop prospect coddling here for the love of god. Also the bottom 6 being a priority over acquiring top 6 forward is hilarious.

 

[JimEIV]

9th in average weight as a team this year…

Because Blackwood, Geertsen, Hamilton, Graves and Siegenthaler . Essentially two non players and 3 defensemen. Our forwards are midgets and the guys who play the most are literally the smallest.

And when we deal with one of many 175 pound players missing significant time we'll all call it "bad luck" or say "everyone has injuries". And make believe a team full of 175 pounders has nothing to do with it

 

[MauDevils]

Panic moves? Please tell me the last time a 24 year old who has scored 40 goals 2 times (3 without Covid) was available?

The obsession with some of these picks and prospects is getting nauseating.

 

[Bleedred]

I kind of like this new beat writer too.

I seen the 62 after his name on twitter and was like ''Oh, well, he's 60 years old, he probably won't be here for long before retiring anyway''.

Then I looked at his picture and the dude doesn't even look 30. Nice!

 

[glenwo2]

Our Beat Writer retweeted this.

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

Because Blackwood, Geertsen, Hamilton, Graves and Siegenthaler . Essentially two non players and 3 defensemen. Our forwards are midgets and the guys who play the most are literally the smallest.

And when we deal with one of many 175 pound players missing significant time we'll all call it "bad luck" or say "everyone has injuries". And make believe a team full of 175 pounders has nothing to do with it

You could've said more size in our top 6, the roster as a whole has enough size to it.

 

[Triumph]

Because Blackwood, Geertsen, Hamilton, Graves and Siegenthaler . Essentially two non players and 3 defensemen. Our forwards are midgets and the guys who play the most are literally the smallest.

And when we deal with one of many 175 pound players missing significant time we'll all call it "bad luck" or say "everyone has injuries". And make believe a team full of 175 pounders has nothing to do with it

I would be shocked if weight has any correlation to missing games with injury. It's just another of the many biases people carry without any basis.

 

[Setec Astronomy]

Panic moves? Please tell me the last time a 24 year old who has scored 40 goals 2 times (3 without Covid) was available?

The obsession with some of these picks and prospects is getting nauseating.

I know there is a 29 year old forward who is a ppg player and is better than the guy you’re talking about who is available for probably the same amount of salary as your guy is gonna get when he’s 26. We also get to keep #2OA and Holtz.

The Devils have the cap space for one big addition when there are a lot of good free agents available and not a lot of teams who can sign them. That’s hopefully the route they’ll be going instead of trading a lot for DeBrincat.

 

[Forge]

Our Beat Writer retweeted this.

5.6 seems light even at 4 years. That's still buying out 2 ufa years, right?

 

[Hisch13r]

You could've said more size in our top 6, the roster as a whole has enough size to it.

Tampa's top 6 for back to back cups was 6'2 209, 6'0 194, 5'11 183, 5'11 207, 5'10 183, 5'9 172.

I know there is a 29 year old forward who is a ppg player and is better than the guy you’re talking about who is available for probably the same amount of salary as your guy is gonna get when he’s 26. We also get to keep #2OA and Holtz.

The Devils have the cap space for one big addition when there are a lot of good free agents available and not a lot of teams who can sign them. That’s hopefully the route they’ll be going instead of trading a lot for DeBrincat.

We're not moving 2+Holtz for Debrincat. Also even if Miller is better now he's not going to be better for the duration of their next deals. Stay the f*** away from Miller unless both the acquisition and contrast cost is a steal. That's not happening though so stay the f*** away from Miller

Gaudreau is the FA I look at. Forsberg is a mistake waiting to happen. When it comes to a trade I probably would like Fiala the most if the cost is substantially less than Debrincat. If it isn't though then Debrincat is a good target.

 

[Setec Astronomy]

Who legit said this? You're acting like I'm advocating for someone like J.T Miller with the second overall pick, it's a 24 year old elite sniper who literally fits our core with his age range. People have to stop prospect coddling here for the love of god. Also the bottom 6 being a priority over acquiring top 6 forward is hilarious.

I’m just spitballing here, but often top two picks turn out to be elite players and top ten picks who have a great shot and put up a ppg in the AHL in their age 19-20 seasons also turn out to be elite snipers.

Tampa's top 6 for back to back cups was 6'2 209, 6'0 194, 5'11 183, 5'11 207, 5'10 183, 5'9 172.



We're not moving 2+Holtz for Debrincat. Also even if Miller is better now he's not going to be better for the duration of their next deals. Stay the f*** away from Miller unless both the acquisition and contrast cost is a steal. That's not happening though so stay the f*** away from Miller

Gaudreau is the FA I look at. Forsberg is a mistake waiting to happen. When it comes to a trade I probably would like Fiala the most if the cost is substantially less than Debrincat. If it isn't though then Debrincat is a good target.

I’m talking about Johnny Gaudreau. If there is a need to add a piece from outside of the organization now, he’s the guy the Devils should be targeting, unless Miller/DeBrincat/Fiala can be had for bargains so far as trades go.

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

I’m just spitballing here, but often top two picks turn out to be elite players and top ten picks who have a great shot and put up a ppg in the AHL in their age 19-20 seasons also turn out to be elite snipers.

Taking a 19-20 year old with that over an already proven 24 year old who's elite in NHL literally is the definition of what I just described, but ok.

 

[Capt Nico Poo]

If:
1. Luke pans out
2. Slafkovsky (or whoever we draft) pan out already by 2025
3. Jack, Nico and Bratt continue good development
4. Ty doest follow PKs lead and become trash
5. We find a decent goalie

We should be an attractive club for FA signings around 2025 when our window should be open. No need to waste assets before that unless an excellent opportunity arrives.

 

[Setec Astronomy]

If:
1. Luke pans out
2. Slafkovsky (or whoever we draft) pan out already by 2025
3. Jack, Nico and Bratt continue good development
4. Ty doest follow PKs lead and become trash
5. We find a decent goalie

We should be an attractive club for FA signings around 2025 when our window should be open. No need to waste assets before that unless an excellent opportunity arrives.

We’re already an attractive club for free agent signings considering that there are not that many teams that have the means to do so at the moment.

 

[bossram]

You guys all fall into the classic stats trap by applying a long term trend statistic to single event outcome. If you tallied up all of the shots Steph Curry took from three point range over his lifetime in practice and in games, it would be less than 50% by a long shot and probably something like 5%. You simply CANNOT take that information and apply it like you are applying FW% here. At the end of a game it sure af matters whether you cover Steph Curry or not bc he's going to sink that thing in a clutch situation and you will lose. Can't you guys get it thru your skulls that yeah, Bergeron or Staal are going to lose 45% over a season, but in a clutch spot with your playoffs on the line, against an inferior player in the dot he might win 100% and tip the balance of the game. That's almost exactly what happened during Rangers Pens, if you weren't watching.

It's not OMG MOST IMPORTANT THING IN THE WORLD. but the way you guys @Captain3rdLine @Zajacs Bowl Cut trivialize and discount bc the stat somehow gives you false confidence s just flat out incorrect and a classic failure to analyze how statistics work. Period.

Ad hominen, another classic example where a person has no legitimate arguments.

I can also assure you, he's not winning that situation 100% of the time. Obviously, if you're in that situation, you'd want Bergeron taking the draw because he's the best. But he's the best two-way player primarily because of his play all over the nice, faceoffs add very little.

I could easily point out key situations where a team won a faceoff, then consequently lost the puck and got scored on. They're such a small part of the game, amid 1000s of other possessions, and the difference in true talent between the best and worst is so small, that it isn't really something that should factor into roster building. Like yeah, obviously use your best faceoff guy in key draws. But prioritizing it in any way in player evaluation is extremely stupid.

You're falling into the classic confirmation bias trap. You have a pre-conceived notion, see it happen, then ignore all evidence to the contrary. Macro statistics don't have a narrative. They're just saying what it is. FWIW, I've seen Jordan Staal lose key draws against the Rangers (whose centres are all inferior faceoff guys). What does that do to the narrative? You say you saw one thing, I say I saw something else. Your eyes and brain can't process and capture all these events. But you don't need your brain to construct a narrative. Just look at the facts.

 

[MauDevils]

Ad hominen, another classic example where a person has no legitimate arguments.

I can also assure you, he's not winning that situation 100% of the time. Obviously, if you're in that situation, you'd want Bergeron taking the draw because he's the best. But he's the best two-way player primarily because of his play all over the nice, faceoffs add very little.

I could easily point out key situations where a team won a faceoff, then consequently lost the puck and got scored on. They're such a small part of the game, amid 1000s of other possessions, and the difference in true talent between the best and worst is so small, that it isn't really something that should factor into roster building. Like yeah, obviously use your best faceoff guy in key draws. But prioritizing it in any way in player evaluation is extremely stupid.

You're falling into the classic confirmation bias trap. You have a pre-conceived notion, see it happen, then ignore all evidence to the contrary. Macro statistics don't have a narrative. They're just saying what it is. FWIW, I've seen Jordan Staal lose key draws against the Rangers (whose centres are all inferior faceoff guys). What does that do to the narrative? You say you saw one thing, I say I saw something else. Your eyes and brain can't process and capture all these events. But you don't need your brain to construct a narrative. Just look at the facts.

What is the evidence? I don't think data collection on faceoffs is currently being collected at anywhere near the granularity you would need to really quantify it's importance.

 

[bossram]

What is the evidence? I don't think data collection on faceoffs is currently being collected at anywhere near the granularity you would need to really quantify it's importance.

That we know the difference between the best and worst faceoff guys isn't that big, and that most guys hover around 50%. The margin is so small, that even teams with an elite faceoff guy are only winning like an extra 3-5 faceoffs per game.

We know that faceoffs are essentially uncorrelated with goal differential, expected goal differential, etc. We know that winning a faceoff in the Ozone only very slightly increases your chances of scoring in the next ~5-10 seconds.

So while teams can get better players to win faceoffs, the margin of improvement is so small, and the actual value-add is so small, that in the aggregate it seems pointless to worry about them. Sure, send out your best faceoff guy in a key draw. But beyond that, taking faceoff ability into roster construction is fairly pointless.

If the claim from others is that faceoff ability in key situations is critically important and that you can find a meaningful edge in those situations, the onus is on them to present that granular data that would suggest, as @billingtons ghost said, that a guy like Bergeron would "win 100% and tip the balance of the game".

 

[TrufleShufle]

That we know the difference between the best and worst faceoff guys isn't that big, and that most guys hover around 50%. The margin is so small, that even teams with an elite faceoff guy are only winning like an extra 3-5 faceoffs per game.

We know that faceoffs are essentially uncorrelated with goal differential, expected goal differential, etc. We know that winning a faceoff in the Ozone only very slightly increases your chances of scoring in the next ~5-10 seconds.

So while teams can get better players to win faceoffs, the margin of improvement is so small, and the actual value-add is so small, that in the aggregate it seems pointless to worry about them. Sure, send out your best faceoff guy in a key draw. But beyond that, taking faceoff ability into roster construction it fairly pointless.

If the claim from others is that faceoff ability in key situations is critically important and that you can find a meaningful edge in those situations, the onus is on them to present that granular data that would suggest, as @billingtons ghost said, that a guy like Bergeron would "win 100% and tip the balance of the game".

Why? Why do teams do this? Why do teams have certain guys take draws at certain times and then get off the ice almost right after? Seems kinda pointless if what you are saying is true, put all your best players out there and who cares about the faceoff?

Or it does meaning something? Not the "get this guy over this guy solely based on faceoffs" that you (and others) are pretending people are saying.

But it still helps, and is ok to say, "yea, it's nice this person is good with faceoffs." Without being met with the "faceoffs are meaningless" absolute speak we get every time faceoffs are brought up.