Devils team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - 2023 training camp edition

[Guadana]

Man, I want Holtz to work out so much in the top 6. A Palat-Haula-Toffoli line would be eat teams in the playoffs for breakfast, lunch and dinner.

May be its better to play Holtz against third pairs, not against top-4. Just imagine Holtz, who should play against and fight the puck against Severson, Graves and Marino or against Bahl, Smith, or some PP QB from third pair. Like Ty Smith, Will Butcher.

 

[Hisch13r]

Defense was pretty weak, only one line produced, there were no really promising offensive prospects outside Hischier. And Shero did do nothing to fix any problem. There were no chances for the play off. With or without healthy Hall.

Ray did the right thing to recognize it was a fluke and not make any real win now moves after that year.

 

[Guadana]

Ray did the right thing to recognize it was a fluke and not make any real win now moves after that year.

Than he should sign some players on one year deal and trade them. Make official statement about rise of prospects next season. Trade some players after the fluke season. He recognized nothing because he didn't recognized a fluke of his movement and roster in any off-season moment after 2016.

 

[devilsblood]

Schneider had already fallen off the cliff in 2017-18 and there was no evidence that Kinkaid, a career AHL goalie up until March 2018, was going to be able to handle a starter's load. And what was Plan B - Eddie Lack? Ken Appleby? Goaltending was our Achilles' heel in 2018 outside of Kinkaid's magical March and it was going to be that again the next year.

A *lot* of things had to go right down the stretch for that 2018 team to make the playoffs. And even with all of those things going right they still barely made it.

The roster looked fine on paper going into 2019 - it was essentially just the 2018 roster with no major changes - but the red flags from 2018 were still there a year later. Johansson was coming off several concussions, Vatanen had been dealing with some nagging injuries at the end of 2018 that lingered into 2019. Bratt broke his jaw in a freak accident in training camp when a puck deflected off the crossbar in practice and hit him in the face, and he missed the first half of the season. There were also some journeymen like Gibbons (who left) and Noesen (who stayed) who had career years in 2018 that no one expected to be replicated and Shero didn't try to hedge/replace.

Going into 2019 people were banking on:

1.) Hall having another Hart-caliber season
2.) Nico, Zacha, and Butcher stepping up and improving their games
3.) Kinkaid developing into a legit starter.

If all those things went right, then maybe we could sneak in again as the #7/#8 seed.

We didn't add anyone in free agency or via trade going into 2019. We basically ran it back with the same roster that didn't clinch until Game 81. To pretend that the 2019 team was a playoff lock is just not right - a lot of things went right down the stretch in 2018 and it was foolish to expect all of those things would repeat. The only player who had a better 2019 was Blake Coleman, quite unexpectedly.

The fact that the internal improvements Shero banked on didn't work out was probably one of the factors that lead him to be so aggressive in the summer of 2019, and we all know how that worked out. But I would watch that shitty 2019 season on repeat a hundred times if I needed to - those failures are the reason we have Jack Hughes. If anything had gone any differently, we would have gotten a different prospect and we wouldn't be where we are now.

Kink hadn’t played an AHL game since 14-15. And played more NHL game then AHL games that season.

In the 16-17 season he played 26 NHL games and posted a .916. He then followed that up with 41 games in 17-18 in which he posted a .913.

He was fully established as a good backup who might be on the verge of being a starter in his own right.

But then he posted a .891 and his career went down the tubes.

Not buying people foresaw that drop off.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

Bratt should be on his left and Toffoli on his right. Toffoli should score a ton playing with those 2. Mercer works better with Nico. Palat’s a 3rd liner and unless we’re trying to spread the talent out both he and Haula should stay down there

I don’t think so. Palat played all over the lineup in Tampa, and a lot on the top line with Kucherov. I’d expect him to move up and down here too.

 

[Hisch13r]

I don’t think so. Palat played all over the lineup in Tampa, and a lot on the top line with Kucherov. I’d expect him to move up and down here too.

I mean he didn’t have 4 wingers better than him in Tampa and he’s not as good as he was in Tampa.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

I mean he didn’t have 4 wingers better than him in Tampa and he’s not as good as he was in Tampa.

Based on a season played on a bum groin? I swear Tatar got like 100% goodwill from you and Palat gets 0% lol.

 

[NJDevs26]

Tatar did produce more last year and I'm not exactly the guy's biggest fan, but we'll find out this year how much Palat's downturn was due to the injury (and whether having a healthy Palat is even a realistic goal going forward).

 

[Triumph]

Than he should sign some players on one year deal and trade them. Make official statement about rise of prospects next season. Trade some players after the fluke season. He recognized nothing because he didn't recognized a fluke of his movement and roster in any off-season moment after 2016.

This is extremely difficult to do. Everyone on message boards likes to talk about it, but it is a comparatively rare event. 37 UFAs signed 1 year, 1 way contracts in the summer of 2018. Derek Grant was traded for Joseph Blandisi. Cody McLeod was traded for a 7th round pick. Anthony Duclair was traded with 2 2nds for Ryan Dzingel and a 7th. Christian Folin was traded with Dale Weise for Byron Froese and David Schlemko. Brian Gibbons was dealt for Patrick Sieloff. Matt Hendricks was traded for a 7th. Luke Schenn was traded with a 7th for Michael Del Zotto. Adam Cracknell was traded for Steve Oleksy. Michael Hutchinson was traded for a 5th round pick.

That was it. Nobody who signed a 1 year contract as a UFA in 2018 was traded for anything more than a 5th round draft pick.

 

[Bleedred]

Kink hadn’t played an AHL game since 14-15. And played more NHL game then AHL games that season.

In the 16-17 season he played 26 NHL games and posted a .916. He then followed that up with 41 games in 17-18 in which he posted a .913.

He was fully established as a good backup who might be on the verge of being a starter in his own right.

But then he posted a .891 and his career went down the tubes.

Not buying people foresaw that drop off.

I didn’t see him dropping that much, but I also didn’t see him having to play 41 games and 38 starts, for the second year in a row. That was his game line for two straight seasons. He did alright in 17-18 and horrible with that workload in 18-19.

I still had some belief heading into 18-19 that Cory had something left in the tank, even though I knew his days of being elite were over. He had nothing left in the tank at all though. So that’s why Kinkaid had to play all those games. Cory was still on IR to start the 18-19 season and didn’t play until October 30th. He was pretty much banished to the AHL on a “conditioning stint” around the middle of December after being unplayable. He didn’t come back until the end of January.

So this forced an already struggling Kinkaid (who wasn’t struggling quite as bad as Schneider at that point) to have the brunt of the workload. He was even playing back to back’s and then Blackwood got his first call up and took some of those games from him.

Kinkaid was never on the verge of being a starter though. That’s not at all true. How was he on the verge of becoming a starter on his own right? Because he played 41 games and started 38 the season before? To pretty league average results, might I add. Nothing special. Then we tried that again the next year and it was a disaster.

And don’t forget that Keith Kinkaid was already 28 years old during the 17-18 season.

The only indication that he was on the verge of becoming a starter was the 17-18 season and that was just one year. And even then, i would say at the very best that showed he may be becoming a 1b type of goalie. Not a starter. And he crumbled with the same workload that next year.

He was actually on pace to play 56 games that season and start 52, but he didn’t play again after February 19th. He appeared in 41 of the team’s first 60 games of the year and started 38 of them. I do think it’s reasonable to say he may have fared better in his usual backup role and not played as badly that year had he stayed in that role.

 

[JimEIV]

I like the Palat signing and he came through against the rangers in the playoffs with 5 points. I think he's exactly what the team needed to take another step...

But Palat is going to be 33 years old before this season ends...As a fan you can't help but worry about a decline, and perhaps a early one when the player just missed basically half the season with injury.

But I like having him here for experience alone. Hopefully he's got a lot more in the tank.

 

[Oneiro]

Palat and Haula are fine on the third line. You just hope they don’t have to move up too often, but it’s inevitable they will.

We’re married to the contract now, so we wait it out, which makes us like every other team in the league. I don’t think there is a single team without an iffy deal on the books. I’m also not looking forward to the back half of Meier’s deal but we’ll see what happens first.

 

[JimEIV]

Haula was our #2 goal scorer behind Jack in the playoffs and Mercer and Palat were tied for the 3rd spot.

In my mind, both Palat and Haula did exactly what they were brought in to do.

 

[devilsblood]

I didn’t see him dropping that much, but I also didn’t see him having to play 41 games and 38 starts, for the second year in a row. That was his game line for two straight seasons. He did alright in 17-18 and horrible with that workload in 18-19.

I still had some belief heading into 18-19 that Cory had something left in the tank, even though I knew his days of being elite were over. He had nothing left in the tank at all though. So that’s why Kinkaid had to play all those games. Cory was still on IR to start the 18-19 season and didn’t play until October 30th. He was pretty much banished to the AHL on a “conditioning stint” around the middle of December after being unplayable. He didn’t come back until the end of January.

So this forced an already struggling Kinkaid (who wasn’t struggling quite as bad as Schneider at that point) to have the brunt of the workload. He was even playing back to back’s and then Blackwood got his first call up and took some of those games from him.

Kinkaid was never on the verge of being a starter though. That’s not at all true. How was he on the verge of becoming a starter on his own right? Because he played 41 games and started 38 the season before? To pretty league average results, might I add. Nothing special. Then we tried that again the next year and it was a disaster.

And don’t forget that Keith Kinkaid was already 28 years old during the 17-18 season.

The only indication that he was on the verge of becoming a starter was the 17-18 season and that was just one year. And even then, i would say at the very best that showed he may be becoming a 1b type of goalie. Not a starter. And he crumbled with the same workload that next year.

He was actually on pace to play 56 games that season and start 52, but he didn’t play again after February 19th. He appeared in 41 of the team’s first 60 games of the year and started 38 of them. I do think it’s reasonable to say he may have fared better in his usual backup role and not played as badly that year had he stayed in that role.

Like I said “might be”. As it turned out, he wasn’t but his resume to that point suggested it was possible.

His NHL career basically ending the next season due to a severe drop in play was something no one expected.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

Palat's showing in game 7 against NYR has already paid for his contract

I truly don't care about it anymore. Stick him on the third line and its whatever.

 

[Nocashstyle]

No matter how many times I’m reminded…I always forget Lazar is around

 

[Bleedred]

Like I said “might be”. As it turned out, he wasn’t but his resume to that point suggested it was possible.

His NHL career basically ending the next season due to a severe drop in play was something no one expected.

I know there was one poster on record saying he'd be out of the NHL (on a full time basis) in 2 years, and I'm pretty sure that was around January of 2018. It was before his really hot stretch began that year, I do remember that much. And he was out of the league in December of 2019. That's on a full time basis, he's had call ups several times with 3 different teams since, but he's been a third stringer/mostly in the AHL ever since.

But to be fair, I do think you're right in that most nobody else saw that drop coming. I didn't think he'd drop THAT much in 18-19, but it wasn't shocking considering the workload he was given. Kinkaid was 29 years old that season and I've said for years now, Kinkaid types have a limited shelf life in the NHL and that shelf life seems to be not much past 30 years old.

Although, there's some goalies of that like that do it in reverse. Like Scott Clemmensen and more recently someone like Carter Hutton maybe? Who don't really break into the NHL until their late 20's or even early 30's and have a decent few years as NHL goalies/backups.

 

[theoptimist]

No matter how many times I’m reminded…I always forget Lazar is around

Holtz for me

 

[devilsblood]

I know there was one poster on record saying he'd be out of the NHL (on a full time basis) in 2 years, and I'm pretty sure that was around January of 2018. It was before his really hot stretch began that year, I do remember that much. And he was out of the league in December of 2019. That's on a full time basis, he's had call ups several times with 3 different teams since, but he's been a third stringer/mostly in the AHL ever since.

But to be fair, I do think you're right in that most nobody else saw that drop coming. I didn't think he'd drop THAT much in 18-19, but it wasn't shocking considering the workload he was given. Kinkaid was 29 years old that season and I've said for years now, Kinkaid types have a limited shelf life in the NHL and that shelf life seems to be not much past 30 years old.

Although, there's some goalies of that like that do it in reverse. Like Scott Clemmensen and more recently someone like Carter Hutton maybe? Who don't really break into the NHL until their late 20's or even early 30's and have a decent few years as NHL goalies/backups.

I guess there can be the rare occurrence of someone making a call that makes zero sense, but then it turns out correct. But i see that as random coincidence.

 

[Bleedred]

I guess there can be the rare occurrence of someone making a call that makes zero sense, but then it turns out correct. But i see that as random coincidence.

I've been right on the goalies more often than not. I haven't been right on everything, but you (certainly not just you) have doubted me on those and I think I've been right 9 out of 10 times on them.

It actually made A LOT of sense to see Kinkaid falling out of the league within two years, (even though I agree with you, no one expected him to be THAT bad) because like I said, those goalies have limited shelf lives. How many Keith Kinkaid-like goalies last for years and years in the league?

 

[Oneiro]

My view of Palat was that his style of player was badly needed. He was always one of my favorite non Devils so I’m still sort of thrilled to see him in our uniform but strategically, I think we can agree you don’t sign 31 year olds who play a heavy game to 5 year deals and that cap percentage.

At times, the drafting under Fitz feels like he’s trying to fish for Palat type players and I’m not sure it’s such a wise approach.

 

[devilsblood]

Palat's showing in game 7 against NYR has already paid for his contract

I truly don't care about it anymore. Stick him on the third line and its whatever.

I feel that play paid for this past season. But we need more going fed to justify the reat if the contract.

 

[devilsblood]

I've been right on the goalies more often than not. I haven't been right on everything, but you (certainly not just you) have doubted me on those and I think I've been right 9 out of 10 times on them.

It actually made A LOT of sense to see Kinkaid falling out of the league within two years, (even though I agree with you, no one expected him to be THAT bad) because like I said, those goalies have limited shelf lives. How many Keith Kinkaid-like goalies last for years and years in the league?

It made no sense to expect Kink to be out of the league 2 years beyond the 17-18 season.

And I def give you a ton of credit for your diligence in tracking goalies, but your overly negative view on goalies, including schneider, ignores the limited options at the position.

 

[Hockey Sports Fan]

My view of Palat was that his style of player was badly needed. He was always one of my favorite non Devils so I’m still sort of thrilled to see him in our uniform but strategically, I think we can agree you don’t sign 31 year olds who play a heavy game to 5 year deals and that cap percentage.

At times, the drafting under Fitz feels like he’s trying to fish for Palat type players and I’m not sure it’s such a wise approach.

I think that’s exactly what he’s doing. He’s lightly modeling the team after Tampa, and he’s got the core set, so now he’s trying find the Gourdes, Killorns, and Cirellis without have to pay a premium in free agency. And honestly i think it’s worked, or at least i feel like the Devils are targeting the right kinds of players in the draft. Time will tell.

 

[Bleedred]

It made no sense to expect Kink to be out of the league 2 years beyond the 17-18 season.

And I def give you a ton of credit for your diligence in tracking goalies, but your overly negative view on goalies, including schneider, ignores the limited options at the position.

If you remember, and I don't hold it against anyone that doesn't remember, but Kinkaid struggled for the better part of that season, up until about February. Schneider was the other way around. He played more like the Schneider before the 16-17 season during the 2017 part of that season. Kinkaid was an .893% in the 2017 part of that season (only 10 games though) and 21 games into that season he was an .891%. Game 21 for him that year was on February 13th. From game 22 to game 41 (That was the remainder of his regular season) he was a .932%. His March and April were REALLY GOOD, as was his second half of February of 2018. That was the best 20 games of hockey he's ever played at the NHL, but earlier in that season, he was playing kind of like he did in the next season, only the sample size was about half the game's. Cory's injury where he didn't play for about 1.5 months, combined with his absolutely dreadful play during the 2018 part of the season really gave Kinkaid that opportunity. Add in the fact that John Hynes for all of his faults, was not too stubborn to ride Kinkaid down the stretch, where he completely benched Cory for the last 2 or 3 weeks of the season, until game 82 after we had clinched in game 81.

One thing I did get wrong was Kinkaid's redemption arc in February-April of 2018. By the end of that season (like the San Jose game, which was Cory's last until the season finale after we clinched) Kinkaid had turned face with me the same way Rocky did in Russia by the later rounds of the match with Drago. After Kinkaid kicked ass down the stretch, I kind of expected him to sustain the poor numbers he had as of February 2018 by season's end. Both because I figured it would continue in his personal play, on top of the fact that Cory would be taking back the job when he was back off IR, which wouldn't give Kinkaid enough games or minutes to inflate his level of play. I thought his 17-18 could very well have been enough to prolong his career, even if he hit a rough patch at some point. He was signed by Montreal in 2019 and started the season there, but struggled in not even 10 games and was waived by December. And Columbus did trade for him at the deadline that year he was dreadful in 2019 (lol who did we draft with that pick last year, by the way?) but weirdly never even played him once, only dressing him several times as the backup.

Now with Schneider, I thought he could still be an okay or average goalie heading into the 18-19 season, but after his dreadful start (and even with the close to 20 games of .920% ending, he still finished BARELY above .900% for the season) that was it for me and I was calling for his buyout by December of 2018.

In hindsight, I agree with your point of view that the organization is indeed better off for buying him out in 2020 and not 2019 with three years remaining. We probably could have gotten away with running him out there one more year in the covid shortened season, since we got to carry three goalies anyway and it was only a 56 gamer and not an 82, but no one could have guessed Crawford was gonna decide to retire like two days into training camp. At the same time, Shero was really fooling himself thinking he would be a positive contributor 19-20. I maintain that he should have known he was TOAST and he was. We couldn't compete with him and Blackwood (who was good that season, to be fair) was still very inexperienced and a question mark to be able to count on them. Maybe he thought we would win game 4-3 or 5-4. I do have a sympathetic side though, and my thinking was it would be more humane and decent to Schneider to buy him out and give him a chance to continue his NHL career, rather than banish him to the AHL right at the start of the season. I don't feel there was any chance he was bouncing back, so I don't regret wanting to be done with him before new years of 2019, but I do think the organization in 23-24 is better off not having to still have his buyout on the books in 24-25.