Devils team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - 2023 offseason part II

[MasterofGrond]

how many career 40 goal game droughts can a man have and still be a 3rd liner

 

[beekay414]

He had 26 points last season. That's pretty well into third line production.

Your perception of true 4th liners is pretty skewed then. That's more like a Lazar.

12/10 primary to secondary assist rate (11/10 EV strength, 1 PK primary assist). Don't think he's a 3rd line scoring type at all, especially not on when factoring in the eye test.

 

[KovalchukFistPump]

Is there a chance that Fitz feels he can get the Spezza, Eric Staal, Corey Perry-type vets who will be willing to come chase a cup for low money (having made tons of money already)? Guys like that can be really valuable at limited ice time.

Find some folks with ties to the New York area and offer them a spot on the team to see if they'll take less to play for a winner.

 

[MasterofGrond]

i would go to bat for mikey in every way (except one!) if he could just stop chances against at 5on5, but he never has. At all.

a defensively responsible 4th line center should probably be defensively responsible.

 

[Hischier and Hughes]

He was the line driver on that BMW line. Also look at our record with v without him last year. He’s basically the Ryan Carter from the CBGB line, most underrated guy and doesn’t get his flowers by this fanbase + around the league

No offense.. but if we are taking the team record when a fourth liner is or isnt playing as a determinative statistic, then the original argument has been lost

Bastian quite literally cannot affect a game the same way McLeod can. How many times has Bastian started an overtime? How many times has Bastian lined up with ten seconds left in the defensive zone? Or ten seconds left in the offensive zone? How many games has Bastian played over 10ATOI?

Bastian is a good fourth liner but people just dislike Mikey and like Nate more when they claim hes the better player; he isnt and its inarguable

 

[MasterofGrond]

Starting an overtime with McLeod is not worth it. Just start with Hischier, I promise you the math says it's a better choice because one dude doesn't have to immediately skate off because his hands are made of stone.

 

[Poppy Whoa Sonnet]

The risk to me letting Mcleod go is if the Devils want to be a fast team. Centers with his speed are not easy to sign for the 4th line. I guess the Toffoli move indicates that's no longer the top to bottom of the lineup strategy?

At this point I don't think he's coming back, either cause of team Canada or someone gives him a contract NJ has no interest in matching.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

when people describe what McLeod's best attribute is, and they have to say "hes great at faceoffs", thats not a player that I really have much of a care about. If thats the best thing about a player, that player is super replaceable.

 

[MasterofGrond]

If they both cost league minimum, I'd take them both. At the same price, I'm not sure who I would take, probably mikey just for flexibility.

But Mike is gonna make 2x what Nate does AND there's the whole WJC thing.

 

[Guttersniped]

Mikey, as a package, is about the same as Lazar. worse defensively, better PK, better FO.

I care significantly more about the PK and the FO stuff, as a forth liner he’s just playing forth liners.

McLeod is inconsistent. At times he’s been solid 3rd liner and other periods he’s been very much a 4th liner. He’s also hitting his peak age though and about to hit his 250 GP mark. He could hit another level.

I would lean towards keeping him, but the Hockey Canada stuff is an issue. Maybe he is pricey.

I would love for Fitz and Co to find fun, different cheap solutions for our bottom six. I’m fun like that.

 

[Hisch13r]

Starting an overtime with McLeod is not worth it. Just start with Hischier, I promise you the math says it's a better choice because one dude doesn't have to immediately skate off because his hands are made of stone.

But the couple of FO% pts!!!!

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

I was unaware that assists were not included in point totals. Good to know.

I missed the part where I said they weren’t? But anyway, players that score 4 goals in 80 games shouldn’t get more than 4th line minutes. At least on a team that wants to win anything.

 

[Hischier and Hughes]

when people describe what McLeod's best attribute is, and they have to say "hes great at faceoffs", thats not a player that I really have much of a care about. If thats the best thing about a player, that player is super replaceable.

I know, unfortunate for the chatters online, but faceoffs hold meaning

Until I see fans suggesting to eliminate faceoffs from the sport, the conversation 'are faceoffs useless?' can never be had

If only there was a way to see this... maybe one day Mikey will start multiple overtime shifts and win us possession... one can dream

 

[Lou is God]

What/who would you consider a top end fourth liner? Or is this just a silly pedestal about having third liners on your fourth line?

I love McLeod and what he brings and I hope he comes back, but he is expendable.

 

[Hischier and Hughes]

Starting an overtime with McLeod is not worth it. Just start with Hischier, I promise you the math says it's a better choice because one dude doesn't have to immediately skate off because his hands are made of stone.

Its not about wanting to start with McLeod, its about him being a worthwhile selection in that position

If Hischier is out for a game and we go to OT, McLeod is gonna get a look

In no situation ever would Bastian get a look in overtime. Thats how McLeod is more important

 

[Peter Sidorkiewicz]

He certainly is not.

If you put together a checklist on what attributes you want from a 4th line center. McLeod ticks most boxes with the exception of scoring:
- Good defensively
- Great penalty killer
- Elite on faceoffs
- Great skater with high motor
- Physical but disciplined. One of the few on our team that hits regularly.
- Can fight if necessary. Sticks up for teammates.
- Playoff performer
- Cheap cap hit (He was last season, I think up to $2m per season, he is value for money).

 

[My3Sons]

Faceoffs matter very, very little overall.

We don't need to do this debate again though.

The problem is face-offs are grossly oversimplified. W/L. It's like grading a class as Pass/Fail. If they tracked clean face-off wins leading to shots it would look much different.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

What/who would you consider a top end fourth liner? Or is this just a silly pedestal about having third liners on your fourth line?

I would say Hathaway is an elite 4th liner. Hit machine, excellent defensive impacts, can score 13-14 goals a year.

 

[MasterofGrond]

PK stuff is a legitimate concern, it's the one thing that trips me up here, so i get it. FO stuff is truly whatever.

but 4th liners don't just play against 4th liners. At least ours f***ing don't. Can't count the number of times BMW (during the bad era last season) got pinned by the opponents top 6 because Mikey can't control the puck in the offensive zone for longer than 1.5 seconds

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

I mean how many times did we were bitching about the lineup decisions that Lindy was making too? Fitz is basically forcing Lindy to play the lineup he has in mind as opposed to going AWOL on his own which I’m sure he’s did a ton of.

 

[MasterofGrond]

I would say Hathaway is an elite 4th liner. Hit machine, excellent defensive impacts, can score 13-14 goals a year.

yeah hathaway is a gold standard

 

[beekay414]

I’m fun like that.

 

[Bleedred]

Blackwood in all likelihood wanted something close to his $3+ million qualifying offer.

The clear fact of the matter is that Blackwood is not worth nearly his qualifying offer or probably even half of his qualifying offer.

A more than fair deal for Blackwood would be 1 year for $1.5 million. I may even be going a bit liberal on that one. I'm using Samsonov last year as a comp and that's exactly what he got. Samsonov hadn't had as many good seasons in the NHL before last year as Blackwood had, but he also wasn't on 3+ years of bad seasons worth of play and constant injury issues either.

I'm sure quite a few teams would be interested in Blackwood at $1.5 million for 1 year to play on their NHL team. I don't think anyone is interested in him at anywhere near $3 million dollars for one year. This is why I was saying that it makes absolutely zero sense for someone to trade for him, but somebody still did, when they could have gotten him for just $1.5 million for a year for next season on the UFA market about 4 days later. The only advantage trading for him gave was the right to negotiate before he hit UFA and the chance of a better team than San Jose throwing an offer his way and him wanting to play there and not San Jose, who honestly won't be conducive in resurrecting his NHL career because they make the 21-22 Devils that he struggled so much behind look like a very good defensive team.

My guess is they still sign him or they wouldn't have traded for him. That doesn't guarantee they will sign him, but walking away 3 days after trading him? The cost was nothing.... But still....Walking away like 3 days later?

I'm thinking maybe they settle for something like $2 million or in the $2 million's for 1 year. Maybe even Blackwood agrees to $1.5 million a year to get 2 years. One more bad year could be the end of him as an NHL regular and he could be relegated to the third string/AHL call up batch of goalies like your Keith Kinkaid's, Michael Hutchinson's, Alex Lyon's and so on's. So I'd take the 2 years guaranteed $1.5 if I were him and it were offered and not be stubborn and try to take one year so he can potentially get a raise from that next year. He could be making $800k NHL/$400k AHL on a two day deal next year if he has yet another .892% season, which in San Jose would not shock anyone.

 

[bossram]

12/10 primary to secondary assist rate (11/10 EV strength, 1 PK primary assist). Don't think he's a 3rd line scoring type at all, especially not on when factoring in the eye test.

Erik "top-nine" Haula had a 9/8 primary/secondary assist split at even-strength. Damn, don't think he's a 3rd line scoring type. And that's in more ice time and playing a lot of the season with Jack.

Mikey had 3 fewer total points at even-strength.

I'm not slagging Haula. I like him. But the "Mcleod is a mid 4th liner" narrative is objectively wrong.

A player who gets points at a 3rd line level and has plus defensive utility is pretty firmly in the middle of the distribution of NHL forwards. By definition, that is not a 4th liner.

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

PK stuff is a legitimate concern, it's the one thing that trips me up here, so i get it. FO stuff is truly whatever.

but 4th liners don't just play against 4th liners. At least ours f***ing don't. Can't count the number of times BMW (during the bad era last season) got pinned by the opponents top 6 because Mikey can't control the puck in the offensive zone for longer than 1.5 seconds

Issue is more so having to use Nico in all situations more often which could have him tired for PP/5v5, otherwise their PK should be ok imo