Devils team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - 2023 offseason part II

[My3Sons]

Did anyone notice how good Severson was last year? Gaffs seemed to diminish and was pretty solid all year.

It was the reduction of minutes... that's it. Nothing else.

This season was the first season that he was under 22 minutes ATOI since 2018 and it was reflected in his overall play.


2023 ES 17:34 - 19:57
2022 ES 18:43 - 23:36
2021 ES 18:36 - 22:29
2020 ES 18:31 - 22:58
2019 ES 18:05 - 22:03
2018 ES 17:40 - 19:41

Severson shouldn't have been playing those big minutes. I think had we had an adequate Defense and Shero not neglected it for 5 years we'd have a much different view of Severson....with even just a little bit of help.

Wasn’t his QoC down a bit as well?

 

[JimEIV]

Wasn’t his QoC down a bit as well?

I don't know honestly. I'd imagine that it would be less from last year just by the reduction of minutes...but in terms of minutes this year there really was no difference between our #2 Dman and our #5 at even strength

#2 Siegenthaler was 17:49
#3 Marino was 17:48
#4 Severson was 17:34
#5 Graves was 17:29

Hard to to imagine the competition level is going to drastically different with a 20 second difference between#2 through #5? But I don't know?

 

[My3Sons]

I don't know honestly. I'd imagine that it would be less from last year just by the reduction of minutes...but in terms of minutes this year there really was no difference between our #2 Dman and our #5 at even strength

Siegenthaler was 17:49
Marino was 17:38
Severson was 17:34
Graves was 17:29

Hard to to imagine the competition level is going to drastically different with that? But I don't know?

There are multiple things to look at it would seem. You’ve got the raw minutes but also the defensive zone starts and who the opponent players are (top six or bottom six) and even who a defender is paired with. I’m not going to do a deep dive but my guess is that Sevs had easier opponents last season most of thr time since Marino was taking more tough defensive assignments. NJ will miss Sevs. He was a good egg and a talented if flawed defender.

 

[JimEIV]

There are multiple things to look at it would seem. You’ve got the raw minutes but also the defensive zone starts and who the opponent players are (top six or bottom six) and even who a defender is paired with. I’m not going to do a deep dive but my guess is that Sevs had easier opponents last season most of thr time since Marino was taking more tough defensive assignments. NJ will miss Sevs. He was a good egg and a talented if flawed defender.

Here are the DZone starts
Smith 63.6%
Bahl 56.9%
Marino 56.1%
Graves 55.8%
Siegenthaler 52.8% - Severson 52.8 %
Hamilton 48.6%

 

[JimEIV]

Lazar, Wood and Bastian are in the 70's% of DZone starts McLeod was 69%...so basically you know which forwards were on the ice with those DZone starts for pretty much every Dman.

Lazar 76.7%
Wood 73.6%
Bastian 72.3%
McLeod 69.1%


And here are our defender CF%

Severson 56.5%
Hamilton 55.3%
Smith 54.5%
Bahl 54.2%
Siegenthaler 52.4%
Marino 52%
Graves 51.1%

 

[Nubmer6]

Listen to this shit.

I tried what you said and somehow this site doesn’t come up in my most visited or any visited sites at all lol.

I don’t know if it’s somehow “Blocked” now or something because I’m getting that bad request thing or what. Other sites I look at come up though.

It’s been working off and on (mostly off) since I first posted that picture of it tonight, but only the main page. Maybe, just maybe, if I just leave it alone when I get the homepage of the site up and then try what you told me to do, then maybe it will come up on my visited sites? That’ll be the next thing I try.

Now I probably won’t be able to get the site to come up at all for a few days now haha.

Try loading another browser. Maybe Firefox or Brave.

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

Did anyone notice how good Severson was last year? Gaffs seemed to diminish and was pretty solid all year.

It was the reduction of minutes... that's it. Nothing else.

This season was the first season that he was under 22 minutes ATOI since 2018 and it was reflected in his overall play.


2023 ES 17:34 - 19:57
2022 ES 18:43 - 23:36
2021 ES 18:36 - 22:29
2020 ES 18:31 - 22:58
2019 ES 18:05 - 22:03
2018 ES 17:40 - 19:41

Severson shouldn't have been playing those big minutes. I think had we had an adequate Defense and Shero not neglected it for 5 years we'd have a much different view of Severson....with even just a little bit of help.

A lot of people noticed, this fanbase just hates Severson because he was our 1D in our worst era of hockey. He's gonna do great in CBJ for the first 3-4 years, just the term is very very bad considering we have an elite RHD prospect on the way. I would've loved to keep him if Nemec wasn't ready very soon. We'll miss him more than Graves.

 

[Hischier and Hughes]

is there any possibility that either of Luke or Nemec are stunted due to being top prospects on a crowded defense?

im not insinuating we block them!

but normally theyd be drafted to separate teams where theyd be seen as the Future #1; here in NJ, we dont know which it will be!!

i suppose other teams had/have this 'issue' as well; Power and Dahlin come to mind. at least their handedness should help!

curious what others think!!

 

[PizzaAndPucks]

is there any possibility that either of Luke or Nemec are stunted due to being top prospects on a crowded defense?

im not insinuating we block them!!

but normally theyd be drafted to separate teams where theyd be seen as the Future #1; here in NJ, we dont know which it will be!!

i suppose other teams had/have this 'issue' as well; Power and Dahlin come to mind. at least their handedness should help!

curious what others think!!

I don't think so.

Luke is going to be relied on somewhat heavily this year but he won't need to be the teams best offensive or defensive defenseman. He won't be rushed into a role over his head. Nemec will probably get called up at some point. He will log big minutes in Utica and won't be rushed/forced into an NHL role this year but is expected to make his debut when the time calls for it.

 

[Better Call Sal]

To an earlier point, I’ll always love Langs. Don’t care for how it ended here, but it won’t ruin the memories for me. He was a hell of a player for us for a long time. That ‘03 playoff run of his was massive. He practically won us those first 6 games single-handedly.

Favorite personal story was that I found out when I was in high school he was doing a local signing at the grocery store in my town (Premio baby! ) but I wasn’t able to make it as my family and I were going to Maine on my birthday. My two friends got me a birthday card that weekend, went and got it signed by Langs I’ll never know what his reaction to it was, but I was appreciative of it either way.

 

[Patrik26]

The team is still a work in progress. Winning in the playoffs and learning how to win multiple rounds is a process and I’m sure they learned something last season. My guess is they will have another chance this season to play Carolina in the second round and we can see what they have learned. My guess is they will be much better.

The Islander teams back in the late 70s early 80s are a perfect example. Lost 2 years in a row to Montreal in the playoffs with high expectations the following 2 seasons, only to get bounced by Toronto in 7 and the Rangers in 6. They finally broke through in 1980. Winning takes time.

 

[My3Sons]

Lazar, Wood and Bastian are in the 70's% of DZone starts McLeod was 69%...so basically you know which forwards were on the ice with those DZone starts for pretty much every Dman.

Lazar 76.7%
Wood 73.6%
Bastian 72.3%
McLeod 69.1%


And here are our defender CF%

Severson 56.5%
Hamilton 55.3%
Smith 54.5%
Bahl 54.2%
Siegenthaler 52.4%
Marino 52%
Graves 51.1%

Somewhere there is a QoC metric but I’m too lazy to find it. My guess is Sevs had easier competition than in any other year just because NJ could finally spread out thr tough minutes. It would have been nice to keep Sevs with NJ but it just wasn’t feasible. Maybe Columbus can loan him back to NJ in two years when the cap goes up and NJ has cap space and CLB is still a bubble team while NJ is a cup contender.

 

[SJinNewJersey]

The Islander teams back in the late 70s early 80s are a perfect example. Lost 2 years in a row to Montreal in the playoffs with high expectations the following 2 seasons, only to get bounced by Toronto in 7 and the Rangers in 6. They finally broke through in 1980. Winning takes time.

 

[JimEIV]

We also lost size with the departing players.

Ryan Graves 6'5'' 220. | Luke 6'2 - 184 |

Severson 6'2'' 205 | Miller 6'1 - 200 - Nemec 6'1-190

Wood 6'2'' 195 | Lazar 6' - 203

Departing average 6'3 - 206.6

Replacement average 6''1 - 195.6 (Didn't include Nemec in this)

It shouldn't make a difference but I think size and strength was definitely an issue in the Carolina series and has been issue for this club for several years.

We did improve our forwards size overall a great deal though... Toffoli 6 203 over Tatar 5'10 173 and Nosek 6'3 205 over Boqvist 6 180, add a full season of Meier 6'1 220

The forward gains are pretty significant and should mitigate the D losses...but I like a big D

 

[GameSeven]

We did improve our forwards size overall a great deal though... Toffoli 6 203 over Tatar 5'10 173 and Nosek 6'3 205 over Boqvist 6 180, add a full season of Meier 6'1 220

The forward gains are pretty significant and should mitigate the D losses...but I like a big D

 

[Better Call Sal]

We also lost size with the departing players.

Ryan Graves 6'5'' 220. | Luke 6'2 - 184 |

Severson 6'2'' 205 | Miller 6'1 - 200 - Nemec 6'1-190

Wood 6'2'' 195 | Lazar 6' - 203

Departing average 6'3 - 206.6

Replacement average 6''1 - 195.6 (Didn't include Nemec in this)

It shouldn't make a difference but I think size and strength was definitely an issue in the Carolina series and has been issue for this club for several years.

We did improve our forwards size overall a great deal though... Toffoli 6 203 over Tatar 5'10 173 and Nosek 6'3 205 over Boqvist 6 180, add a full season of Meier 6'1 220

The forward gains are pretty significant and should mitigate the D losses...but I like a big D

We may have lost size in the literal sense, but Graves and Severson are certainly not guys that give us a ton of physicality or strength back there. Graves especially. I don't know enough about how Miller plays to know if he has any of that in his game. I'm very happy though that Fitz has identified his type of defenders as guys with length, can skate with and move the puck, and are able to at least hold their own from a defensive standpoint. His acquisitions of Siegs and Marino have been stellar in how quickly it improved our overall team defense.

I do think we're a bit heavier at forward, which is definitely a good thing. I think the focus has been on how we can have that B game available to us, especially in the playoffs, when we can't simply outskate our opponent.

 

[My3Sons]

We also lost size with the departing players.

Ryan Graves 6'5'' 220. | Luke 6'2 - 184 |

Severson 6'2'' 205 | Miller 6'1 - 200 - Nemec 6'1-190

Wood 6'2'' 195 | Lazar 6' - 203

Departing average 6'3 - 206.6

Replacement average 6''1 - 195.6 (Didn't include Nemec in this)

It shouldn't make a difference but I think size and strength was definitely an issue in the Carolina series and has been issue for this club for several years.

We did improve our forwards size overall a great deal though... Toffoli 6 203 over Tatar 5'10 173 and Nosek 6'3 205 over Boqvist 6 180, add a full season of Meier 6'1 220

The forward gains are pretty significant and should mitigate the D losses...but I like a big D

Big D aside, the playoff issue with size and strength was at forward to my eyes. As you’ve noted they didn’t score enough against Carolina. I think Carolina did an excellent job interfering and cheap shotting the NJ forwards who didn’t understand by and large that they had to cheap shot the Canes players to create some time and space.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

Did anyone notice how good Severson was last year? Gaffs seemed to diminish and was pretty solid all year.

It was the reduction of minutes... that's it. Nothing else.

This season was the first season that he was under 22 minutes ATOI since 2018 and it was reflected in his overall play.


2023 ES 17:34 - 19:57
2022 ES 18:43 - 23:36
2021 ES 18:36 - 22:29
2020 ES 18:31 - 22:58
2019 ES 18:05 - 22:03
2018 ES 17:40 - 19:41

Severson shouldn't have been playing those big minutes. I think had we had an adequate Defense and Shero not neglected it for 5 years we'd have a much different view of Severson....with even just a little bit of help.

this man just cant help himself.

 

[JimEIV]

We may have lost size in the literal sense, but Graves and Severson are certainly not guys that give us a ton of physicality or strength back there. Graves especially. I don't know enough about how Miller plays to know if he has any of that in his game. I'm very happy though that Fitz has identified his type of defenders as guys with length, can skate with and move the puck, and are able to at least hold their own from a defensive standpoint. His acquisitions of Siegs and Marino have been stellar in how quickly it improved our overall team defense.

I do think we're a bit heavier at forward, which is definitely a good thing. I think the focus has been on how we can have that B game available to us, especially in the playoffs, when we can't simply outskate our opponent.

I do think Severson's physical play was a bit underrated. He was an ox along the boards and usually won those battles with ease...he wasn't the kind of defender that was going to have a big hit or clear the crease but he is extremely strong on his skates and very good at one on one battles.

I think sometimes physicality along the boards is misinterpreted. Some guys can rough up a forward in the corners and "look" physical but never come away with the puck or end the attack...and some guys can use their strength to jam the forward, kill the play and take the puck...the former "looks" more physical...the later is the real displays of strength and technique in my opinion.

 

[PizzaAndPucks]

Big D aside, the playoff issue with size and strength was at forward to my eyes. As you’ve noted they didn’t score enough against Carolina. I think Carolina did an excellent job interfering and cheap shotting the NJ forwards who didn’t understand by and large that they had to cheap shot the Canes players to create some time and space.

In game 3 the Devils played with alot more energy and a much much more physical game. They played great that game minus giving up 3 shorthanded goals in 1 game. They weren't able to replicate that game into game 4. Carolina being the veteran team they are bounced back and made game 3 look like an afterthought real quick. It sucks that we lost some size but atlesst if the team plays "playoff hockey" they are alot more competitive.

 

[PKs Broken Stick]

is there any possibility that either of Luke or Nemec are stunted due to being top prospects on a crowded defense?

I don't believe in prospects being "stunted". That's just an easy excuse for why they failed. There would've been so many narratives about Jack being rushed or whatever as a convenient excuse if he didn't turn out as expected. But he put in the work and overcame the challenges himself, clearly proving that crap is just bs.

 

[JimEIV]

I think just getting to round 2 was a big deal.

The fact that we got there through the rangers made it even more sweet...

But the goal for this season was just making the playoffs. Winning a round AND beating the rangers was surplus goodness.

 

[PizzaAndPucks]

I think just getting to round 2 was a big deal.

The fact that we got there through the rangers made it even more sweet...

But the goal for this season was just making the playoffs. Winning a round AND beating the rangers was surplus goodness.

It certainly was.

Regardless of the teams outlook , every time we play the Rangers it's always a must win. The fact that they loaded up their lineup to the best it has been in a long long time and still lost to us is what makes it even better.

 

[Patrik26]

I think just getting to round 2 was a big deal.

The fact that we got there through the rangers made it even more sweet...

But the goal for this season was just making the playoffs. Winning a round AND beating the rangers was surplus goodness.

Others here may disagree (and I don't care) but for the me, that Rangers series was my Stanley Cup.

 

[TrufleShufle]

Others here may disagree (and I don't care) but for the me, that Rangers series was my Stanley Cup.

Yea winning the Rangers series, especially the way we did, had a high that actually lasted past the lows of losing the 2nd round.