Devils team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - 2023 offseason part II

[devilsblood]

Good thing he shoots right.

Don't want TWO left Feete.

@My3Sons take note as to what real humor looks like.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

I think most nights it will be the opposition that will want to hard match against our top guys. They’ll want line X on Hughes as much as possible, get pairing Y away from Hughes/Nico as much as possible. This top 9 is lethal, regardless of if it’s Holtz or whoever that can claim that 3rd line spot.

 

[My3Sons]

@My3Sons take note as to what real humor looks like.

Sure. You are the arbiter of humor. How could I have missed that with your sterling credentials.

 

[devilsblood]

Doubt Clarke should be used in a defensive role either. Doesn’t seem to be a strength at all.

I generally don’t think we need to be hard matching anyone. Roll 4 lines, we can have play drivers on each of the top 3 lines if we choose to.

I'm not sure how accurate these defensive metrics are for wingers. Especially knowing Utica had weak center depth. Do we have #'s for his most common centers?

I've barely seen Clarke play, but I've seen Holtz in the NHL play, and I could definitely see Clarke bringing a more well rounded game then Holtz.

 

[Hisch13r]

I think most nights it will be the opposition that will want to hard match against our top guys. They’ll want line X on Hughes as much as possible, get pairing Y away from Hughes/Nico as much as possible. This top 9 is lethal, regardless of if it’s Holtz or whoever that can claim that 3rd line spot.

I think the 3RW determines whether this is the best top 9 in the league or the best top 6 with a decent 3rd line. Palat-Haula’s a really good 3rd line duo but if that 3rd player isn’t all that good it limits them. If they are good then all 3 lines could be contending for best 1/2/3 line. Could also end up sliding down Bratt or Meier to drive the hell out of the 3rd line if need be

 

[Nubmer6]

I'm not sure how accurate these defensive metrics are for wingers. Especially knowing Utica had weak center depth. Do we have #'s for his most common centers?

I've barely seen Clarke play, but I've seen Holtz in the NHL play, and I could definitely see Clarke bringing a more well rounded game then Holtz.

As I recall, reports from our Utica people here (well, at least ONE report) said that Holtz was noticeably better off the puck, and that Clarke didn't look NHL ready yet.

I tend to trust their opinions.

 

[JimEIV]

I think the 3RW determines whether this is the best top 9 in the league or the best top 6 with a decent 3rd line. Palat-Haula’s a really good 3rd line duo but if that 3rd player isn’t all that good it limits them. If they are good then all 3 lines could be contending for best 1/2/3 line. Could also end up sliding down Bratt or Meier to drive the hell out of the 3rd line if need be

Sounds like a recipe for 7 Dmen.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

I think the 3RW determines whether this is the best top 9 in the league or the best top 6 with a decent 3rd line. Palat-Haula’s a really good 3rd line duo but if that 3rd player isn’t all that good it limits them. If they are good then all 3 lines could be contending for best 1/2/3 line. Could also end up sliding down Bratt or Meier to drive the hell out of the 3rd line if need be

We can go crazy and have Mercer center Bratt on the “3rd” line if we really want to spread it out. Not sure I love Dawson at C, but Bratt and Mercer were pretty dominant a couple years ago and that was with Johnsson as the 3rd wheel.

Palat-Nico-Timo
Haula-Hughes-Toffoli
Bratt-Mercer-Holtz

So many possibilities. Not a whole lot the opposition can do with matchups.

 

[Aurinko]

If he's legitimately good then it's definitely not a no go. If he can succeed on that 3rd line then I'm 100% putting him with Jack and giving that a go. You don't shove a guy lower in the lineup because you're scared he might be too good and produce too much. That's nonsense. It shouldn't be much of an uphill to get that 3RW at this point. The competition isn't that big. It's not like he's going to have to battle it out and beat an established NHLer. He's going to be against 2 unproven guys themselves in Clarke and Foote. Maybe they go Foote if they want the bigger guy but he's produced much less than the other 2 at the AHL level. I also think they've talked about wanting more righties which gives Clarke and Holtz an edge. Clarke could beat out Holtz but it's not some insurmountable position for Holtz to be in.

If things progresses like it has, it will eventully hit a cap determined by the cap hit.

I can see a lot of success the next season when you have extreme value players like Nosek & Mcleod for 1M, Miller at 2M and Toffoli at 4M. If there is success, that will also increase the price of other players as well and you quickly end up in a situation where someone has to get paid or let go. With this much good players on short contracts that time will come after a single season. It's not contract year for Holtz, but if he gets a 40 goal season and gets a 8M contract all of the players above are automaticlly out, no matter even if they would want to sign a minimum wage discount contracts.

While we haven't seen these guys play yet, I think it's safe to say that a young 40 goal scorer is nowhere near as valuable as those high value players are.

 

[Hisch13r]

We can go crazy and have Mercer center Bratt on the “3rd” line if we really want to spread it out. Not sure I love Dawson at C, but Bratt and Mercer were pretty dominant a couple years ago and that was with Johnsson as the 3rd wheel.

Palat-Nico-Timo
Haula-Hughes-Toffoli
Bratt-Mercer-Holtz

So many possibilities. Not a whole lot the opposition can do with matchups.

If we were to run it similarly to that I'd rather have just flipped Bratt and Palat from the standard lines than have Mercer be the 3C and go back to Haula-Hughes and flipping Bratt/Palat. I'd like a read on Holtz away from elite talent first to gauge how good he is. If Holtz works out I like the idea of sliding down both Bratt and Toffoli to play with Haula. You'd have elite talents on all 3 lines. Reunite H2O and give them a run. I do think that might be a bit limiting to Jack though. As much as I'm not the biggest fan of Meier-Hughes I might go with that and Palat with Nico-Mercer

 

[PizzaAndPucks]

It's hard to judge how good Clarke is defensivley when many people on here are judging things off a graph and not actually have seen him play much in Utica. He knows there is a potential spot for him this year so hopefully he has a great camp. He's going to get into some games this year 100% so we will have a better idea of how he is at the NHL level but I think he has potential to be a 2nd line player if not an offensive 3rd liner. I'm thinking 20 goal 25 assist guy is a safe bet for him.

 

[JimEIV]

Speaking of 7 Dmen...makes me wonder if Nemec could have an effect on Holtz getting a spot?

If they decide to go with a right side of Hamilton - Merino - Miller - Nemec 7th for any amount of time, I'd imagine Holtz or whoever that 9th forward is would be most effected by going 7D.

 

[Guttersniped]

I didn't realize the older Foote fell off that hard. I remember when he was considering a very good prospect

He struggles with foot speed (ahem) like his bro, which is a bigger problem for a defenseman.

He was a mostly a mess his rookie year (35 GP) but was sort of ok in his 2nd year (56 GP), in a piece of furniture sort of way.

He played with Sergachev, Hedman, McDonagh and Bogosian (~673 5v5 minutes of ~715 minutes 5v5 TOI) in his second year, with Sergachev being his most consistent partner.
Foote’s 2021-22 Tampa Defensive Pairs

He again got partnered with Sergachev (115:39
5v5 TOI) and Hedman (91:01 5v5 TOI) the most. The underlying numbers were uglier, even though the GF% was respectable. Sergachev ended up being mostly paired with the fascinatingly named Nicklaus Perbix while Hedman mostly played with Bogosian.

He also played with Ian Cole (85:33 5v5), and got his best results, and with Hayden Fleury (43:01 5v5), and got his worst results. Then Tampa shipped his ass to Nashville after 26 GP.
Foote’s 22-23 Tampa Defensive Pairs

In Nashville, Foote played with Jeremy Lauzon (124:37 5v5), and they were meh, he played with someone named Kevin Gravel (98:42 5v5) and they were not good, and he played with Spencer Stastney (61:49 5v5) and they were even worse.
Foote’s Nashville Defensive Pairs

Well his xG% with Stastney was 36.63%, with a CF% of 36.63%, a SCF% of 34.04% and a HDCF% of 42.11%, but their GF% was 80%.

Yup, they got bent over for an hour and ended up with 4 GF 1 GA, thanks to a sweet On-Ice SV% of 96.55.

And if you’re wondering why I didn’t put more of these sorts of numbers in this, well, Foote seems mostly like a pretty lucky guy last season:

 

[nugg]

Now we just need to put the best Foote forward.

I'll see you guys on opening night.

And now we can have a FooteBahl pairing. @FooteBahl

 

[NjDevsRR]

It's hard to judge how good Clarke is defensivley when many people on here are judging things off a graph and not actually have seen him play much

Ridiculous! Graphs and charts is all you need…

 

[FinnishDevil]

Give me all of the Footes and all of the Bahls!

 

[Hisch13r]

If things progresses like it has, it will eventully hit a cap determined by the cap hit.

I can see a lot of success the next season when you have extreme value players like Nosek & Mcleod for 1M, Miller at 2M and Toffoli at 4M. If there is success, that will also increase the price of other players as well and you quickly end up in a situation where someone has to get paid or let go. With this much good players on short contracts that time will come after a single season. It's not contract year for Holtz, but if he gets a 40 goal season and gets a 8M contract all of the players above are automaticlly out, no matter even if they would want to sign a minimum wage discount contracts.

While we haven't seen these guys play yet, I think it's safe to say that a young 40 goal scorer is nowhere near as valuable as those high value players are.

Nosek and McLeod are fine 4th lines. They're not extreme value. They're not even great value or surplus value at all really. They're paid what they should be paid. Miller's fine value and is gone after this year anyway so I don't even know why he's mentioned. Toffoli's great value but 1 year left regardless. Nemec and Holtz on their ELCs would provide more FAR value the following year than Miller and Toffoli. What you're saying is absurd. A 40 goal Holtz for a year on his ELC is MILES MORE VALUABLE than Nosek, McLeod, and Miller combined. We'd also still likely be able to keep Toffoli short term because we'd have Holtz on his ELC still.

 

[devilsblood]

Speaking of 7 Dmen...makes me wonder if Nemec could have an effect on Holtz getting a spot?

If they decide to go with a right side of Hamilton - Merino - Miller - Nemec 7th for any amount of time, I'd imagine Holtz or whoever that 9th forward is would be most effected by going 7D.

Highly doubt we see it early in the year. And if we do see it later in the year, it will merely be a transition to when Nemec officially replaces Miller.

 

[Guttersniped]

Good thing he shoots right.

Don't want TWO left Feete.

@My3Sons take note as to what real humor looks like.

 

[Guttersniped]

Nosek and McLeod are fine 4th lines. They're not extreme value. Miller's fine value. Toffoli's great value but 1 year left regardless. Nemec and Holtz on their ELCs would provide more FAR value the following year than Miller and Toffoli. What you're saying is absurd. A 40 goal Holtz for a year on his ELC is MILES MORE VALUABLE than Nosek, McLeod, and Miller combined. We'd also still likely be able to keep Toffoli short term because we'd have Holtz on his ELC still.

We need a contingency plan for Holtz scoring 40 goals and getting 8m in 2025-26, this is now a pressing concern.

What if he gets 60 goals? Then we won’t even be able to afford him.

 

[Hisch13r]

We need a contingency plan for Holtz scoring 40 goals and getting 8m in 2025-26, this is now pressing concern.

What if he gets 60 goals? Then we won’t even be able to afford him.

Well I know how to do that. That Sabres fan in the Hellebuyck thread said we needed to move Nico to create some cap and recoup the assets moved for Timo. Shedding that 7.25+Holtz 894k means we can pay him over 8 with no net impact on the cap

 

[NjDevsRR]

We need another Bahl so Devils social media can duplicate this tweet

 

[Blackjack]

The left hand foot is on the right and the right hand foot is on the left.

 

[glenwo2]

Still my all-time favorite take, it’s got everything in one glorious post:

View attachment 734802View attachment 734803View attachment 734804

F Alexis Lafreniere - Rimouski Oceanic, QMJHL (2020 Draft) Part 2

Let's keep this on topic everybody. Back to Lafreniere who I project to be better than Matthews but worse than Laine. Agree or disagree?

forums.hfboards.com

If we're doing this, then check this one out :

Lafreniere will come out the best player of his draft. Please bookmark my post as you wish. Alexis Lafreniere will become a PPG player in this league real soon. People thinking otherwise don't what type of player he is. He's a winner, a professional and a heck of a hockey player. You win Cups with players like Laffy. Just wait and see.

People were quick to judge Nathan MacKinnon after his sophomore season when he hit a slump. It won't happen to Alexis. This kid will keep improving year after year until he's amongst the league's best. You can't break him.

F Alexis Lafreniere (2020, 1st, NYR) part 4

People keep saying this . No he did not . He scored some goalie when team like Vancouver clinched a playoff birth and was resting their regulars . Over 1/2 his 17 goals came at the end of the year . Did they really. He started the season in late January. Scored many of his goals against Vezina...

forums.hfboards.com

Well..that post didn't age well, did it? heehee.

 

[Devils731]

If we're doing this, then check this one out :

F Alexis Lafreniere (2020, 1st, NYR) part 4

People keep saying this . No he did not . He scored some goalie when team like Vancouver clinched a playoff birth and was resting their regulars . Over 1/2 his 17 goals came at the end of the year . Did they really. He started the season in late January. Scored many of his goals against Vezina...

forums.hfboards.com

Well..that post didn't age well, did it? heehee.

The money you could have made betting him Mercer would have more points today than Laf.