Devils team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - 2023 offseason part II

[bossram]

If I'm reading this "shooting score" correctly it seems to mean that when the puck was on Nico's stick on the PP, he shot better than you would expect an average PP shooter to shoot. If that's the case then it seems consistent with what I saw. He wasn't the featured guy, but when he had opportunities he was very good at cashing them in.

Jack's and Timo's numbers make sense here too. They are both volume shooters. Yeah, they both score a lot of goals, but they also both take a lot of shots. If you give a shooter time and space on the PP then eventually the puck will go in. That doesn't mean it was particularly impressive by the shooter. The difference is that Jack is still an elite distributor while Timo doesn't seem to do very well in that area.

Bratt not overperforming the field as a shooter makes sense too. He may have had the highest quality opportunities on the PP given where he say on the far wing. He benefitted from a lot of royal road/pass-off-pad set ups that gave him lots gaping empty nets. So again, he's just feeding off high quality being generated by other players, good goal production but not really special in any way. He's doing what you would expect any PP shooter to do if they consistently had empty nets to shoot at.

Dougie is the one that really confuses me being squarely in the passer category. Obviously he gets a ton of PP assists being the QB that's sitting at the dot. But he was tied with Josi and Ekblad for 1st in the league in PP goals among defensemen and he did it with fewer shots. He also scored more goals on fewer shots than Nico. It looks like he was one of the best blueline shooters in the league last year, yet has a below average shooter score. Maybe that's just a feature of him being a defenseman in a sample that's an aggregate of mostly forwards, so he looks worse by comparison?

But yeah, calling Hischier "the main shooter" is definitely off the mark, but I think the point is that his shooting was the most efficient of anyone on our PP when you factor in quantity, quality, set-up, and finishing.

Forgive me if this has already been answered, but is "shooter score" really calculated mostly by finishing? It would seem to me that xG is weighed heavily. This would explain why Nico is the "main shooter" on this chart - because most of his shots are in the low slot or crease, which carry high xG values. Dougie racked up a lot of PP goals and shots, but long bombs are not graded as high xG attempts. Also explains the Jack and Timo rankings, as they're usually shooting off the flank.

 

[bossram]

I'm pretty sure Toffoli will be on PP 1. You want the lethal RH shot at the dot.

Yeah to me the units look like this (with Dougie and Luke pretty interchangeable)

Nico
Jack-Toffoli-Meier
Dougie

Haula
Holtz-Mercer-Bratt
Luke

I think Toffoli might be there to juice PP2. He primarily played either Left Flank or Netfront on CGY's PP. Obviously he's not displacing Jack on the left, and there is a lot of competition for the netfront spot.

As I noted, I'm not sure if Toffoli is really a lock to be on PP1.

He's not going to displace Jack on the left flank. The only other spot he's played on the PP extensively is around the netfront, to my knowledge of him in VAN and CGY he was never a bumper player (and I don't think his strengths fit that spot).

You could put Toffoli netfront and Nico as the bumper, but IMO I think Nico is better oriented as the "jam in rebounds and low tips" guy.

 

[Hisch13r]

As I noted, I'm not sure if Toffoli is really a lock to be on PP1.

He's not going to displace Jack on the left flank. The only other spot he's played on the PP extensively is around the netfront, to my knowledge of him in VAN and CGY he was never a bumper player (and I don't think his strengths fit that spot).

You could put Toffoli netfront and Nico as the bumper, but IMO I think Nico is better oriented as the "jam in rebounds and low tips" guy.

I have no issues with going both Nico and Toffoli and them rotating around with each other. I don’t see why Toffoli wouldn’t be successful as the bumper. If Holtz doesn’t make it or does and for some reason isn’t used on a PP unit then I’d move him to that PP2 left circle and Mercer to Toffoli’s PP1 spot with Palat taking Mercer’s PP2 spot

 

[devilsblood]

It's not measuring shooting percent. It's measuring positive or negative outcomes based on situation and quality.

What are these outcomes?

 

[devilsblood]

You could put Toffoli netfront and Nico as the bumper, but IMO I think Nico is better oriented as the "jam in rebounds and low tips" guy.

This is it.

Finding a solid net front has been an issue for years. It's why we've seen the likes of Wood and Bastian getting runs on the first unit. If Toffoli is at all capable, and I tend to think he is just based on his reputation, then it makes all the sense.

Hughes lw halfboard, Meier in the onetime RW halfboard.

Bratt on 2nd unit.

I'd be pretty surprised if this is not how we start the season.

 

[devilsblood]

Forgive me if this has already been answered, but is "shooter score" really calculated mostly by finishing? It would seem to me that xG is weighed heavily. This would explain why Nico is the "main shooter" on this chart - because most of his shots are in the low slot or crease, which carry high xG values. Dougie racked up a lot of PP goals and shots, but long bombs are not graded as high xG attempts. Also explains the Jack and Timo rankings, as they're usually shooting off the flank.

No one knows. Though I doubt it's based on finishing given Nico had a relatively low shooting %.

But yeah flank shots rank poorly in terms of hd, sc, and xg. Despite the one timer flank shot being the dominant objective of PP's, and why we see the best shooters in the game most often in that position.

This discussion has shown a light on the fact that these are poor metrics in regards to the PP.

But what is "shooter score"? It's a mystery.

 

[PKs Broken Stick]

This is it.

Finding a solid net front has been an issue for years. It's why we've seen the likes of Wood and Bastian getting runs on the first unit. If Toffoli is at all capable, and I tend to think he is just based on his reputation, then it makes all the sense.

Bastian was great at netfront though....way better than Nico (and wood).

 

[devilsblood]

Bastian was great at netfront though....way better than Nico (and wood).

Bastian was OK. He wasn't great, and that's why he didn't stick in that spot.

Nico hasn't played a ton as the net front. He's mostly been in that bumper spot.

We put Meier net front, he was OK, but he's better as the RW shooter.

Toffoli as net front makes too much sense.

 

[Billdo]

Bastian was great at netfront though....way better than Nico (and wood).

Greats a little bit of a stretch. You don't want to have to have Bastian in front. We don't necessarily NEED to have him there.

 

[Classic Devil]

So, I'm not quite so sure that we don't see Hughes move to the right side. I know he looked great on the left, but he was really there because we didn't have a natural RH shot. Putting Toffoli on the left, Hughes on the right seems more balanced of an attack, and I doubt Hughes would lose a beat. The real question then becomes who's netfront and who's bumper.

 

[Hisch13r]

So, I'm not quite so sure that we don't see Hughes move to the right side. I know he looked great on the left, but he was really there because we didn't have a natural RH shot. Putting Toffoli on the left, Hughes on the right seems more balanced of an attack, and I doubt Hughes would lose a beat. The real question then becomes who's netfront and who's bumper.

I don’t see why we’d do that when Meier on the right and Toffoli in the bumper is likely a better option than having Jack move over and going Toffoli on the left and someone in the bumper.

 

[AfroThunder396]

What are these outcomes?

"Shooting and Passing Score weigh a player's shots and chances created (either by shooting or passing to teammates) based on the league average shooting % on similar chances (e.g. off a cross-slot pass, off a rebound, off a perimeter shot, etc.)."

Now I'm not a hockeyologist. But it sounds to me that when Nico shoots the puck on the PP, the probability of that shot resulting in either a goal or a scoring chance is very high compared to other bumper forwards around the league.

 

[bossram]

I have no issues with going both Nico and Toffoli and them rotating around with each other. I don’t see why Toffoli wouldn’t be successful as the bumper. If Holtz doesn’t make it or does and for some reason isn’t used on a PP unit then I’d move him to that PP2 left circle and Mercer to Toffoli’s PP1 spot with Palat taking Mercer’s PP2 spot

The bumper spot is more about spacing, providing a "release valve" for pressure, with their main weapon being off-balance/not-in-wheelhouse one-timers from the slot.

IMO these are not Toffoli's strengths. He's a volume shooter. From the left side. And the bumper isn't a place where coaches have put him on the PP.

I agree that Nico bumper and Toffoli netfront make more sense. I also don't think he's an ideal bumper though, the issue is I don't think the Devils have one.

So, I'm not quite so sure that we don't see Hughes move to the right side. I know he looked great on the left, but he was really there because we didn't have a natural RH shot. Putting Toffoli on the left, Hughes on the right seems more balanced of an attack, and I doubt Hughes would lose a beat. The real question then becomes who's netfront and who's bumper.

You want the dual pass/shoot threat from Jack on the left slide. Him sliding up and down creates more openings. He becomes more just a pure shooter on the right-side.

 

[devilsblood]

"Shooting and Passing Score weigh a player's shots and chances created (either by shooting or passing to teammates) based on the league average shooting % on similar chances (e.g. off a cross-slot pass, off a rebound, off a perimeter shot, etc.)."

Now I'm not a hockeyologist. But it sounds to me that when Nico shoots the puck on the PP, the probability of that shot resulting in either a goal or a scoring chance is very high compared to other bumper forwards around the league.

Doesn't Point play the bumber for TB? He shot 29%. Nico shot 9%.

Bergeron shot 14%. Pretty sure he was the bumber there.

Tavares shot 17%.

Oshie shot 21%.

 

[Triumph]

"Shooting and Passing Score weigh a player's shots and chances created (either by shooting or passing to teammates) based on the league average shooting % on similar chances (e.g. off a cross-slot pass, off a rebound, off a perimeter shot, etc.)."

Now I'm not a hockeyologist. But it sounds to me that when Nico shoots the puck on the PP, the probability of that shot resulting in either a goal or a scoring chance is very high compared to other bumper forwards around the league.

He's just deliberately not getting it at this point. I grant it is not a simple concept and the single tweet that he refuses to read most of obfuscates some of what's trying to be expressed.

I'll try one more time, even though this is getting into one-armed drummer territory.

Forget Nico Hischier. Imagine a Player X. What if we looked at every shot taken on the power play in the league, taking into account the pre-shot movement and location of every shot, and came up with a metric that determines, based on location and pre-shot movement, the likelihood of any given shot becoming a goal? Then if we take those numbers and applied them to all of the players in the league, we have Shooter Score, which we can then apply to any player, including Player X, not taking into account player X's boxcar numbers or perceived shooting skill. This is fundamentally similar to a concept like xG, but it is not xG. Goal results are only being considered here as an input, not as an output. That's why Nico has a high score - he took a good number of shots, almost all of them from close in, and by this metric and by others, probably should've had more PP goals. But maybe there's something fundamental to Nico or the power play why he doesn't - more investigation is needed.

Forgive me if this has already been answered, but is "shooter score" really calculated mostly by finishing? It would seem to me that xG is weighed heavily. This would explain why Nico is the "main shooter" on this chart - because most of his shots are in the low slot or crease, which carry high xG values. Dougie racked up a lot of PP goals and shots, but long bombs are not graded as high xG attempts. Also explains the Jack and Timo rankings, as they're usually shooting off the flank.

I was surprised to learn that Nico was credited with more 5v4 PP shots than Hamilton. 14 shots/60 to 12. Minor difference obviously, but I never would've guessed that, even though I eye tested the whole season.

 

[glenwo2]

This is it.

Finding a solid net front has been an issue for years. It's why we've seen the likes of Wood and Bastian getting runs on the first unit. If Toffoli is at all capable, and I tend to think he is just based on his reputation, then it makes all the sense.

Hughes lw halfboard, Meier in the onetime RW halfboard.

Bratt on 2nd unit.

I'd be pretty surprised if this is not how we start the season.

You said "Bratt on the 2nd unit" but I'd like to know what the make-up of that 2nd Unit is.

Like...who is going to be there 'cause it can't be Bratt by himself.... (unless we clone him)

 

[Nubmer6]

You said "Bratt on the 2nd unit" but I'd like to know what the make-up of that 2nd Unit is.

Like...who is going to be there 'cause it can't be Bratt by himself.... (unless we clone him)

I see Bratt having the Hughes role on PP2. Zone entries and being a bit of a rover. Pop Holtz (if he nakes it) on the opposite wing as a shooter like Meier, Palat netfront like Tofolli, Haula in the bumper in the Hischier role and Luke on D.

BTW, I'm actually not that sold on Hischier on PP1. Maybe it was just my perception, but I just didn't feel he was very effective there.

 

[Peter Sidorkiewicz]

My PP assignments

PP1:

Toffoli: net front
Nico: bumper
Meier: right half board
Jack: left half board
Dougie: up top

PP2:

Mercer: net front
Palat: bumper
Bratt: right half board
Holtz: left half board
Luke: up top

With Miller subbed for Holtz when 30 seconds or less remaining.

 

[Zippy316]

My PP assignments

PP1:

Toffoli: net front
Nico: bumper
Meier: right half board
Jack: left half board
Dougie: up top

PP2:

Mercer: net front
Palat: bumper
Bratt: right half board
Holtz: left half board
Luke: up top

With Miller subbed for Holtz when 30 seconds or less remaining.

I like the first unit but it needs to switch up their roles frequently, even if Bratt is on it. They should be comfortable with anyone in the forward roles except for maybe Hughes net front. Otherwise you’re wasting Toffoli’s shot.

Second unit almost certainly has Haula for his face off prowess as well. I think it’s most likely going to be Mercer, Haula, Toffoli, Palat, and Luke though. Would be a nice veteran unit for Luke to learn on

 

[Peter Sidorkiewicz]

Bastian was great at netfront though....way better than Nico (and wood).

Greats a little bit of a stretch. You don't want to have to have Bastian in front. We don't necessarily NEED to have him there.

Bastian wasn't good at tips but he understood his role at screening the goalie and he was the best of a bad bunch.

Nico is the worst power play player on this team for the time on ice he gets. We need him for faceoffs but beyond that he is extremely ineffective. As a net front he was useless. Didn't screen the goalie at all. Bumper is the only position you can play him and let's hope coaching staff give him video tape of Brayden Point playing the bumper and he learns the position.

 

[devilsfan950003]

Bastian was OK. He wasn't great, and that's why he didn't stick in that spot.

Nico hasn't played a ton as the net front. He's mostly been in that bumper spot.

We put Meier net front, he was OK, but he's better as the RW shooter.

Toffoli as net front makes too much sense.

Toffoli should be on the first PP unit, in the bumper spot, on day one. He's great in that spot.

 

[glenwo2]

I see Bratt having the Hughes role on PP2. Zone entries and being a bit of a rover. Pop Holtz (if he nakes it) on the opposite wing as a shooter like Meier, Palat netfront like Tofolli, Haula in the bumper in the Hischier role and Luke on D.

BTW, I'm actually not that sold on Hischier on PP1. Maybe it was just my perception, but I just didn't feel he was very effective there.

We're going to NEED Holtz to make it for him to be on PP2.

Otherwise, PP2 is going to end up being as "effective" as it was last season.

PP2 needs a finisher.

PP1 has several.

 

[RSeen]

Toffoli should be on the first PP unit, in the bumper spot, on day one. He's great in that spot.

Our PP desperately needs a net front or bumper option. Either one will be a great benefit and I think Toffoli will be the player to play one of those roles effectively. I wouldn't mind Jack being on the right spot and then being able to set up Toffoli as an option in the bumper spot.

 

[njdevils1982]

was it palmieri and hall that hynes had a weird thing of trying them on their non shooting wings on the PP?

drove me nuts

 

[Better Call Sal]

I see Bratt having the Hughes role on PP2. Zone entries and being a bit of a rover. Pop Holtz (if he nakes it) on the opposite wing as a shooter like Meier, Palat netfront like Tofolli, Haula in the bumper in the Hischier role and Luke on D.

BTW, I'm actually not that sold on Hischier on PP1. Maybe it was just my perception, but I just didn't feel he was very effective there.

I agree with you on the deployment of the 2nd unit. I do think Nico works well in the bumper and net front roles to help win puck battles when needed and score in the lower areas, though. Given the other weapons that will be on that unit, I don't think we need him to do much more than that.

We're going to NEED Holtz to make it for him to be on PP2.

Otherwise, PP2 is going to end up being as "effective" as it was last season.

PP2 needs a finisher.

PP1 has several.

Bratt had 32 goals. Mercer had 27. Holtz is a shooter. Those are guys who can finish.