Devils team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - 2023 offseason part II

[Devs3cups]

who gives a f***. it's money well spent, the roster is loaded and well set up

Yeah, I’m 99% sure he was being sarcastic here. There’s a lot of “the owners are cheap” talk on Twitter, and I’ve seen it here recently too.

I took it as if he was just making fun of the idea that the owners are cheap. Thought it was interesting to see we spent the most as well.

 

[devilsblood]

Try looking at the chart attached to the post, it might explain what the post is trying to say. This is using a metric called shooting score, which I haven't seen before, but it is not just totaling up shots. It is saying that when Nico was the trigger man, better stuff happened than when he wasn't, which makes intuitive sense given how the Devils' power play operates.

So it's obviously not saying he took the most shots despite you not having seen the metric before?

But we don't know in what way he is considered "the shooter"?

And where are these results you speak of? Are they in that tweet somewhere?

Our PP wasn't very good last year, and I didn't see anything that looked like great passing PP, nor did I ever consider Nico the trigger man.

Nothing in that tweet made sense.

 

[MasterofGrond]

Devils power play was fine to good last year, don’t unfairly bag on it.

And they did move the puck well, the issue was they didn’t transition that movement to high value shots as often as they could have. Which that chart backs up.

 

[Hischier and Hughes]

im so excited for this season!

if we can manage to get Hellebyuck for this year..

id say we win 1st in the standings!!

 

[Aurinko]

Now that is two completely different ways of dealing with the things versus Jim Nill in Dallas. It's not completely out of the realm of possibility that these two teams meet in playoffs in the coming years.

 

[MadDevil]

For some reason I find it amusing the Islanders are 3rd on that list. Good luck to whoever succeeds Lou. They'll have an aging roster with an elite goalie. Hey...that sounds familiar...

 

[Billdo]

I like this guy less and less.

He absolutely sucks.

 

[devilsblood]

Devils power play was fine to good last year, don’t unfairly bag on it.

And they did move the puck well, the issue was they didn’t transition that movement to high value shots as often as they could have. Which that chart backs up.

NJ's PP was just outside of the top 10 in a bunch of metrics. %, g/60, s/60. So I think you are right, it was fine to good. Does that support that NJ was "great" passing on the PP. I don't think we can shake out one way or another from that chart how good of a passing team we were, but I certainly didn't see "great" via the eye test, and we'd have to be a pretty poor a shooting team to be "great" at passing but merely fine/good in terms of scoring goals, but we were pretty much middle pack in shooting %.

But that wasn't my main issue. My main issue was the conclusion that Nico was the main shooter, which as Devils fans we should all know wasn't the case. For most of the season Hughes was the main shooter, and it wasn't even close. Once Meier came aboard, Hughes shot significantly less, and Meier and Nico became co-main shooters. But that chart wasn't looking at just that late season stretch, as far as I can tell.

I'm also not sure how Bratt is so near to Hughes on that chart. Hughes took way more shots then Bratt did. A near double in terms of SOG's. Not quite as drastic, but still significant in terms of shot attempts.

 

[Cheddabombs]

NJ's PP was just outside of the top 10 in a bunch of metrics. %, g/60, s/60. So I think you are right, it was fine to good. Does that support that NJ was "great" passing on the PP. I don't think we can shake out one way or another from that chart how good of a passing team we were, but I certainly didn't see "great" via the eye test, and we'd have to be a pretty poor a shooting team to be "great" at passing but merely fine/good in terms of scoring goals, but we were pretty much middle pack in shooting %.

But that wasn't my main issue. My main issue was the conclusion that Nico was the main shooter, which as Devils fans we should all know wasn't the case. For most of the season Hughes was the main shooter, and it wasn't even close. Once Meier came aboard, Hughes shot significantly less, and Meier and Nico became co-main shooters. But that chart wasn't looking at just that late season stretch, as far as I can tell.

I'm also not sure how Bratt is so near to Hughes on that chart. Hughes took way more shots then Bratt did. A near double in terms of SOG's. Not quite as drastic, but still significant in terms of shot attempts.

I don't think that chart was concluding Nico was the main shooter on the powerplay. The shooting/passing score thing seems to take into account the type of chance created as well, so like one timers plus maybe at certain areas of the ice?

Jack definitely took more shots but a lot of his chances also just came from him walking in from the point with a wrist shot. He has a great shot but that still likely wouldn't be considered as an A+ opportunity. Whereas Nico didn't have a lot of volume of opportunities standing as the high forward in the slot most of the time, but the chances he did create were probably "better" with things like one timers and rebound chances.

Jack and Bratt sometimes just mirrored each other in terms of their role on the powerplay, so I guess it makes sense why they're pretty close? Both took chances where they walked in from the point and both created a lot of grade A chances with cross-ice passes, often to each other.

But things may look different this year anyway with a full year of Meier and Toffoli.

 

[Camille the Eel]

The key is to keep getting to dance because it’s very hard to win the playoffs.

So far, the Devils made it to the Conference or Stanley Cup Finals seven times. That’s a lot and we’ve been blessed there, but people forget we’ve had 12 1st round exits too.

It’s never a given you “build” on last years playoff performance. You start in round one like everyone else.

The playoffs are exciting, but sometimes exciting like “losing control of your car on a patch of black ice” ice. “Wondering if your bank account was hacked” exciting.

When people talk about only caring about the playoffs I start to wonder if they’re sociopaths or masochists. Now that I’m getting older I’m starting to wonder if Devils in the NHL Playoffs are just going to kill me at some point.

Any way, some fun stats! Enjoy!


The 7 Conference appearances

1887-88: 38-36-6, 82 pts, .513
4th in the Patrick (6 teams)
Lost Conference Finals (4-3) to BOS
Won Division Finals (4-3) over WSH
Won Division Semi-Finals (4-2) over NYI
1993-94: 47-25-12, 106 pts, .631
2nd in Atlantic (7 teams)
Lost Conference Finals (4-3) to NYR
Won Conference Semi-Finals (4-2) over BOS
Won Conference Quarter-Finals (4-3) over BUF
1994-95: 22-18-8, 52 pts, .542
2nd in Atlantic (7 teams)
Won Stanley Cup Final (4-0) over DET
Won Conference Finals (4-2) over PHI
Won Conference Semi-Finals (4-1) over PIT
Won Conference Quarter-Finals (4-1) over BOS
1999-00: 45-24-8-5, 103 pts, .628
2nd in Atlantic (5 teams)
Won Stanley Cup Final (4-2) over DAL
Won Conference Finals (4-3) over PHI
Won Conference Semi-Finals (4-2) over TOR
Won Conference Quarter-Finals (4-0) over FLA
2000-01: 48-19-12-3, 111 pts, .677
1st in Atlantic (5 teams)
Lost Stanley Cup Final (4-3) to COL Won Conference Finals (4-1) over PIT
Won Conference Semi-Finals (4-3) over TOR
Won Conference Quarter-Finals (4-2) over CAR
2002-03: 46-20-10-6, 108 pts, .659
1st in Atlantic (5 teams)
Won Stanley Cup Final (4-3) over MDA
Won Conference Finals (4-3) over OTT
Won Conference Semi-Finals (4-1) over TBL
Won Conference Quarter-Finals (4-1) over BOS
2011-12: 48-28-6, 102 pts, .622
4th in Atlantic (5 teams)
Lost Stanley Cup Final (4-2) to LAK
Won Conference Finals (4-2) over NYR
Won Conference Semi-Finals (4-1) over PHI
Won Conference Quarter-Finals (4-3) over FLA

Lost in the 2nd Round 4 times.

1996-97: 45-23-14, 104 pts, .634
1st in Atlantic (7 teams)
Lost Conference Semi-Finals (4-1) to NYR
Won Conference Quarter-Finals (4-1) over MTL
2005-06: 46-27-9, 101 pts, .616
1st in Atlantic (5 teams)
Lost Conference Semi-Finals (4-1) to CAR
Won Conference Quarter-Finals (4-0) over NYR
2006-07: 49-24-9, 107 pts, .652
1st in Atlantic (5 teams)
Lost Conference Semi-Finals (4-1) to OTT
Won Conference Quarter-Finals (4-2) over TBL
2023-24: 52-22-8, 112 pts, .683
8th in the Metro (8 teams)
Lost Second Round (4-1) to CAR
Won First Round (4-3) over NYR

And had 12 first round exits.

1989-90: 37-34-9, 83 pts, .519
2nd in Patrick (6 teams)
Lost Division Semi-Finals (4-2) to WSH
1990-91: 32-33-15, 79 pts, .494
4th in Patrick (6 teams)
Lost Division Semi-Finals (4-3) to PIT
1991-92: 38-31-11, 87 pts, .544
4th in Patrick (6 teams)
Lost Division Semi-Finals (4-3) to NYR
1992-93: 40-37-7, 87 pts, .518
4th in Patrick (6 teams)
Lost Division SemiFinals (4-1) to PIT
1997-98: 48-23-11, 107 pts, .652
1st in Atlantic (7 teams)
Lost Conference Quarter-Finals (4-2) to OTT
1998-99: 47-24-11, 105 pts, .640
1st in Atlantic (5 teams)
Lost Conference Quarter-Finals (4-3) to PIT
2001-02: 41-28-9-4, 95 pts, .579
3rd in Atlantic (5 teams)
Lost Conference Quarter-Finals (4-2) to CAR
2003-04: 43-25-12-2, 100 pts, .610
2nd in Atlantic (5 teams)
Lost Conference Quarter-Finals (4-1) to PHI
2007-08: 46-29-7, 99 pts, .604
2nd in Atlantic (5 teams)
Lost Conference Quarter-Finals (4-1) to NYR
2008-09: 51-27-4, 106 pts, .646
1st in Atlantic (5 teams)
Lost Conference Quarter-Finals (4-3) to CAR
2009-10: 48-27-7, 103 pts, .628
1st in Atlantic (5 teams)
Lost Conference Quarter-Finals (4-1) to PHI
2017-18: 44-29-9, 97 pts, .591
5th in Metro (8 teams)
Lost First Round (4-1) to TBL

The regular season is where the huge balance of the viewing, entertainment, enjoyment (or the alternative) are. I’ve never understood the “nothing matters but the playoffs” view. It’s nearly the opposite with me. Actually it makes no sense to separate them. The regular season is completed by the playoffs and it’s a whole, when you make the playoffs. Success or failure there leave the lingering impressions on the other 82 games.

 

[Triumph]

So it's obviously not saying he took the most shots despite you not having seen the metric before?

Yes. Now maybe I used some inference here to conclude that someone as diligent as JFresh isn't going to put up and keep up a stat that is blatantly wrong, and maybe you could've also done the same.

But we don't know in what way he is considered "the shooter"?

He is considered the shooter when he shoots the puck, hope that helps.

And where are these results you speak of? Are they in that tweet somewhere?

I never used the word results once in my post.

Our PP wasn't very good last year, and I didn't see anything that looked like great passing PP, nor did I ever consider Nico the trigger man.

The idea that you could just 'see' a good passing power play is absurd. I do like how Corey went through and counted literally every pass made last season and that turned into this and you said 'Nah, I watched most of the games once, I almost understand most of the words in this tweet; the Devils weren't a great passing PP'.

Nico posted the most xGs of anyone on the 5v4 power play.

Nothing in that tweet made sense.

That's because you didn't try to understand it even once, and you're not trying now.

 

[Hisch13r]

It’s really not hard to understand why the guy who plays around the net compared to Jack, Bratt, and Dougie who are on the perimeter would post the higher shooting score. You get better chances around the net.

 

[None Shall Pass]

I'm being pedantic, but that's a dumb graphic. The Devils didn't "spend" $154 million this offseason. They committed to that amount.

And no kidding it's that high - Bratt and Timo as two high-end RFAs getting eight year contracts accounts for like $125M of that, other RFAs and Haula round it out. Next offseason, some other team with some high end RFAs due for raises (I think Buffalo has Power and Dahlin up next offseason) will get close as well, if not beat it.

I do like that our current ownership isn't stingy, though.

 

[devilsblood]

I don't think that chart was concluding Nico was the main shooter on the powerplay. The shooting/passing score thing seems to take into account the type of chance created as well, so like one timers plus maybe at certain areas of the ice?

Jack definitely took more shots but a lot of his chances also just came from him walking in from the point with a wrist shot. He has a great shot but that still likely wouldn't be considered as an A+ opportunity. Whereas Nico didn't have a lot of volume of opportunities standing as the high forward in the slot most of the time, but the chances he did create were probably "better" with things like one timers and rebound chances.

Jack and Bratt sometimes just mirrored each other in terms of their role on the powerplay, so I guess it makes sense why they're pretty close? Both took chances where they walked in from the point and both created a lot of grade A chances with cross-ice passes, often to each other.

But things may look different this year anyway with a full year of Meier and Toffoli.

The only shooting metric where Nico has a big edge is iHDCF. And that completely makes sense given his spot in the middle of the ice is the most heavily weighted in that metric. Does that make him the "shooter"? That's not how I would describe it.

Interestingly guys in the cross ice one timer spot, are just not going to fair well in the HDCF metric. Yet it's considered by most as the most dangerous shot on the PP. Ovie averaged(minimum 50 minutesplayed) the least amount of iHDCF on the Cap's this past season. Laine the same. Zach Hyman averaged more iHDCF then McDavid and Draisatl combined.

If iHDCF is the metric they are using to define who the shooter is, then I def think they are doing it wrong. Not that I know that's what JFresh is doing, but no one else seems to actually know either.


And I Fully expect the PP to look different this year. I think Bratt is off the top unit, Meier is opposite Hughes, and Toffoli is down low.

 

[devilsblood]

It’s really not hard to understand why the guy who plays around the net compared to Jack, Bratt, and Dougie who are on the perimeter would post the higher shooting score. You get better chances around the net.

Say it above, cross ice one timers are some of the best chances you will see on the PP. But they receive a very low score.

Nico's shooting % on the PP, certainly doesn't suggest he is getting great chances.

 

[devilsblood]

Yes. Now maybe I used some inference here to conclude that someone as diligent as JFresh isn't going to put up and keep up a stat that is blatantly wrong, and maybe you could've also done the same.



He is considered the shooter when he shoots the puck, hope that helps.

That's not how JFresh was using it so......

I never used the word results once in my post.

You did say this:

"It is saying that when Nico was the trigger man, better stuff happened than when he wasn't"

Are we not talking results here?

The idea that you could just 'see' a good passing power play is absurd. I do like how Corey went through and counted literally every pass made last season and that turned into this and you said 'Nah, I watched most of the games once, I almost understand most of the words in this tweet; the Devils weren't a great passing PP'.

Nico posted the most xGs of anyone on the 5v4 power play.



That's because you didn't try to understand it even once, and you're not trying now.

xGF is so high because they give a high score to hdcf. Which weights heavily to where Nico is most often positioned. But we should all know it's not the best shooting spot on the PP. HDCF is a better metric 5v5. It's not very good on the PP.

The mental gymnastics guys are doing to support a metric they don't understand, and imperically didn't match what we all watched, is impressive.

 

[forceten]

Wait, 3s and 8s don’t hate each other?

ChatGPT says:

Numbers themselves don't have feelings or emotions, as they are abstract mathematical entities. However, we can playfully imagine that the numbers 3 and 8 have personalities and interact with each other.

In this imaginative scenario, we could envision the number 3 as a bubbly and outgoing character, always looking for the next adventure. Meanwhile, the number 8 might be seen as a more serious and reserved individual, valuing stability and structure.

Their interactions could be characterized by a playful rivalry or a friendly competition. The number 3 might enjoy teasing the number 8 for its more rigid appearance, while the number 8 could respond with subtle sarcasm about 3's roundness. Despite these playful jabs, they ultimately appreciate each other's unique qualities and recognize the importance of working together.

So, I'm even more confused about why writers are worried about LLMs.

 

[tailfins]

My biggest concern for regression this year was that we had 39 regulation wins. That's still tied for 4th in the NHL (with Carolina and Dallas), so very good, but it's a closer to 9th (37 wins) than it is to 3rd (42 wins).

Personally, I think the Devils had a lot of luck on their side last year and their results ended up a bit ahead of where I think the team is.

If you drop just a couple of regulations wins to 37, it's tied with the Rangers and Seattle. Still solid playoff teams, but more middle of the pack. That's really just one or two injuries and maybe a slightly down year from a player or two, and my sense for where the team ends up next year.

IMO, the big wildcard is Jack. I think this team rises and falls based on his play (assuming baseline competency in goal, and talking regular season only). If Jack is just puts up 120 points this year, the team fights for the division lead / conference title. If Jack drops to 80, the team is a playoff team, but doesn't have a lot of buzz.

 

[forceten]

So many things can happen.

 

[devilsblood]

My biggest concern for regression this year was that we had 39 regulation wins. That's still tied for 4th in the NHL (with Carolina and Dallas), so very good, but it's a closer to 9th (37 wins) than it is to 3rd (42 wins).

Personally, I think the Devils had a lot of luck on their side last year and their results ended up a bit ahead of where I think the team is.

If you drop just a couple of regulations wins to 37, it's tied with the Rangers and Seattle. Still solid playoff teams, but more middle of the pack. That's really just one or two injuries and maybe a slightly down year from a player or two, and my sense for where the team ends up next year.

IMO, the big wildcard is Jack. I think this team rises and falls based on his play (assuming baseline competency in goal, and talking regular season only). If Jack is just puts up 120 points this year, the team fights for the division lead / conference title. If Jack drops to 80, the team is a playoff team, but doesn't have a lot of buzz.

I see Jack as a wildcard only if he underperforms. And I really only see him underperforming for one reason that I dare not mention.

Luke to me is a big wildcard. Nemec is a dark horse wildcard.

 

[Triumph]

"It is saying that when Nico was the trigger man, better stuff happened than when he wasn't"

Are we not talking results here?

Sigh, again, a lot of this would be improved by you making an effort. By this account, shooting score is the result. Shooting score, by the very tweet which you almost read once, appears to be a more granular xG, trying to account for pre-shot movement and the like. Nico isn't a bad shooter historically - one season of results is nothing. Now maybe based on where Nico sets up on the PP and how he plays it there, he's more likely to post shooting scores above his actual goal production - e.g. a player with a longer reach may be able to score more goals from around the goal line than Nico will. This is a new stat and I certainly don't understand it yet.

xGF is so high because they give a high score to hdcf. Which weights heavily to where Nico is most often positioned. But we should all know it's not the best shooting spot on the PP. HDCF is a better metric 5v5. It's not very good on the PP.

This is not xGF and it is not HDCF. This and xGF are making sense together in this one instance, though. I don't understand your contention that this is not the best shooting spot on the PP. It may very well be, it's just that getting shots there is difficult and is not 'the play' that teams look to set up.

The mental gymnastics guys are doing to support a metric they don't understand, and imperically didn't match what we all watched, is impressive.

You cannot possibly be this stubborn. Corey watched every game and counted everything. It's like me saying 'I don't see a lot of red cars at this intersection' and some guy sitting there every day counting the number of cars that are red and comparing it to a national average of red cars and it turns out it's actually an above average number and you coming back and saying 'Eh, we all saw it, there's just not many red cars there'. Empiricism means actually doing the work of observation - you and I did not do that, Corey did.

I can't imagine knowing the concept of empiricism and disputing this, unless you just don't trust Corey.

 

[Nocashstyle]

I’m fully expecting a slight bit of a regression, but still comfortably making the playoffs…that’s all you need to do these days anyway.

 

[Blackjack]

The regular season is where the huge balance of the viewing, entertainment, enjoyment (or the alternative) are. I’ve never understood the “nothing matters but the playoffs” view. It’s nearly the opposite with me. Actually it makes no sense to separate them. The regular season is completed by the playoffs and it’s a whole, when you make the playoffs. Success or failure there leave the lingering impressions on the other 82 games.

I agree, but the league and media have decided that ultimately the only thing that matters is championships. That’s what drives GM behavior at the trade deadline. That’s why certain older veterans will sign below-market deals with teams they think are strong. It’s not because they want to win a few more regular season games.

Scolding fans for caring too much about playoff success is like sitting in your seat after a loss and complaining that people care too much about who scored the most goals and aren’t enjoying all the other parts of the game.

 

[Satans Hockey]

My biggest concern for regression this year was that we had 39 regulation wins. That's still tied for 4th in the NHL (with Carolina and Dallas), so very good, but it's a closer to 9th (37 wins) than it is to 3rd (42 wins).

Personally, I think the Devils had a lot of luck on their side last year and their results ended up a bit ahead of where I think the team is.

If you drop just a couple of regulations wins to 37, it's tied with the Rangers and Seattle. Still solid playoff teams, but more middle of the pack. That's really just one or two injuries and maybe a slightly down year from a player or two, and my sense for where the team ends up next year.

IMO, the big wildcard is Jack. I think this team rises and falls based on his play (assuming baseline competency in goal, and talking regular season only). If Jack is just puts up 120 points this year, the team fights for the division lead / conference title. If Jack drops to 80, the team is a playoff team, but doesn't have a lot of buzz.

I don't disagree that we could see some regression but 39 is only 3 away from 42 and 2 away from 37 so thats not some huge difference.

It's a tight league almost every year during the regular season besides when you get a team like Boston who is just miles ahead of everyone for the regular season.

 

[devilsblood]

Sigh, again, a lot of this would be improved by you making an effort. By this account, shooting score is the result. Shooting score, by the very tweet which you almost read once, appears to be a more granular xG, trying to account for pre-shot movement and the like. Nico isn't a bad shooter historically - one season of results is nothing. Now maybe based on where Nico sets up on the PP and how he plays it there, he's more likely to post shooting scores above his actual goal production - e.g. a player with a longer reach may be able to score more goals from around the goal line than Nico will. This is a new stat and I certainly don't understand it yet.



This is not xGF and it is not HDCF. This and xGF are making sense together in this one instance, though. I don't understand your contention that this is not the best shooting spot on the PP. It may very well be, it's just that getting shots there is difficult and is not 'the play' that teams look to set up.



You cannot possibly be this stubborn. Corey watched every game and counted everything. It's like me saying 'I don't see a lot of red cars at this intersection' and some guy sitting there every day counting the number of cars that are red and comparing it to a national average of red cars and it turns out it's actually an above average number and you coming back and saying 'Eh, we all saw it, there's just not many red cars there'. Empiricism means actually doing the work of observation - you and I did not do that, Corey did.

I can't imagine knowing the concept of empiricism and disputing this, unless you just don't trust Corey.

I watched pretty much every game, and I'm looking at a set of stats as well. No clue where Nico is the shooter comes from. No one else seems to have an answer either. But hey this guy makes cool player cards, so Nico must be the shooter.

Would like to see who he thinks the shooter is on Boston. Is it the guy who takes the most shots and scores the most goals(Pasta), or the guy with the most HDCF and higher xGF(Debrusk)?