Devils team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - 2023-24 season part III

[Bleedred]

Columbus is one of the worst teams in the league this year. They are probably near the bottom in more stats than not.

So I’m not surprised they can’t win when scoring two goals or less.

I’m pretty sure they give up considerably more shots than us as well. Elvis barely has a better GAA than typhoid fever Vitek does, despite a save percentage that’s 16 points higher.

 

[JimEIV]

Columbus is one of the worst teams in the league this year. They are probably near the bottom in more stats than not.

So I’m not surprised they can’t win when scoring two goals or less.

I’m pretty sure they give up considerably more shots than us as well. Elvis barely has a better GAA than typhoid fever Vitek does, despite a save percentage that’s 16 points higher.

Dallas is currently 5th in league and Vegas is 7th. Two top 10 teams in the league have basically the same amount of wins as we do when they score 2 or less.

 

[bossram]

Fitz is as safe as it gets and I’m glad. He’s built a very solid core for now and the future. Hopefully he cans Ruff, but if he doesn’t right this instant my opinion on him won’t change too much. Thr goaltending needs to be fixed asap though.

I feel like the evaluation of Fitz should be the opposite. Turfing Ruff should be automatic and if he isn't gone this season, it's a huge failure of Fitz. Firing the coach is the easiest change a GM can make, and there are Actually Good candidates to replace Ruff just hanging around (Berube, Woodcroft, Evason).

Fixing the goaltending is harder. Well, they can and should fire the goalie coach. But there also just aren't that many quality goalies in the league, and the teams with one aren't trading them. Basically the only "good" option out there is Markstrom.

 

[Guttersniped]

Its crazy. The Devils’ goalies suck. Everyone knows it. So lets allow close to 30 shots per.

The Devils management (GM) team valued offense over defense and goaltending this offseason and it backfired. The Devils didn’t need goal scoring.

Why are the Canes better with similar goaltending?

View attachment 817449

They now have a better PK, PP, GA, and Shots Against. I am also curious but lazy on amount of PP’s. There have been a few game the Devils were so passive they had ZERO PP’s in a game.

We didn’t not need goal scoring, Toffoli has 21 of our 169 goals. It’s a pretty noticeable drop in offense without that, he replaced a good amount of lost offense.

The most realistic complaint I can see is Lyon got Detroit 13 wins and Jones got Toronto 9 wins but we’re too cheap to pay a 3rd goalie 875k-900k to play in the AHL.

 

[Unknown Caller]

I feel like the evaluation of Fitz should be the opposite. Turfing Ruff should be automatic and if he isn't gone this season, it's a huge failure of Fitz. Firing the coach is the easiest change a GM can make, and there are Actually Good candidates to replace Ruff just hanging around (Berube, Woodcroft, Evason).

Fixing the goaltending is harder. Well, they can and should fire the goalie coach. But there also just aren't that many quality goalies in the league, and the teams with one aren't trading them. Basically the only "good" option out there is Markstrom.

It doesn't matter how many quality goalies there are in the league, the issue is that they keep going back to Vanecek again and again and again. He's the worst goalie in the entire league. He's 91 out of 91.

Fitz's inability to make any move at all, even a negligible move that is just a little less bad to stabilize the situation a little, is a huge error on an otherwise solid resume.

Oh and he also had an entire offseason to address the goaltending and failed to do anything.

 

[NjDevsRR]

For the trade anything for the Markstrom crowd, why the hell would CGY trade anyone? They are about to be in a playoff spot

Well they did just trade their best center lmao. Same with Philly. Probably will sell due to the bigger picture

 

[JimEIV]

Fitz is as safe as it gets and I’m glad. He’s built a very solid core for now and the future. Hopefully he cans Ruff, but if he doesn’t right this instant my opinion on him won’t change too much. Thr goaltending needs to be fixed asap though.

I agree but I'm a little disappointed that we went into this season with so much youth on the backend.

It was made worse by a truck load of injuries but I still think it was a bad idea going into the season thinking Bahl was going to seamlessly replace Graves role.

 

[Billdo]

I agree but I'm a little disappointed that we went into this season with so much youth on the backend.

It was made worse by a truck load of injuries but I still think it was a bad idea going into the season thinking Bahl was going to seamlessly replace Graves role.

I think it wouldn't have been a huge deal if there wasn't the Dougie injury and regression from Siegenthaler and Marino. On paper a defensive grouping of Siegenthaler-Hamilton, Bahl-Marino, Hughes-Miller should've been able to weather the storm. Certainly would've been nice to not NEED Nemec and Hughes playing 20 mins a night.

 

[bossram]

It doesn't matter how many quality goalies there are in the league, the issue is that they keep going back to Vanecek again and again and again. He's the worst goalie in the entire league. He's 91 out of 91.

Fitz's inability to make any move at all, even a negligible move that is just a little less bad to stabilize the situation a little, is a huge error on an otherwise solid resume.

Oh and he also had an entire offseason to address the goaltending and failed to do anything.

Fair enough, but I think the expectation was that Schmid would be, at the very least, a solid tandem option. I thought that too.

Ruff is the one that keeps putting V-tek back in the net. Play Daws.

Yeah, I think Fitz not trying to actively stabilize the goaltending is a mistake, but not a critical fail. Keeping Ruff is a critical fail. It is a very easy change. Fixing the goaltending is not super easy, because regardless of whether you agree or not, there are simply not that many "good" goalies out there. The number of quality goalies literally does matter.

 

[JimEIV]

I think it wouldn't have been a huge deal if there wasn't the Dougie injury and regression from Siegenthaler and Marino. On paper a defensive grouping of Siegenthaler-Hamilton, Bahl-Marino, Hughes-Miller should've been able to weather the storm. Certainly would've been nice to not NEED Nemec and Hughes playing 20 mins a night.

Losing Dougie definitely hurt...20+ minutes a night that we really couldn't replace at all...I also don't believe Siegenthaler and Marino have regressed as much as there situation has changed from last season.

 

[bossram]

I agree but I'm a little disappointed that we went into this season with so much youth on the backend.

It was made worse by a truck load of injuries but I still think it was a bad idea going into the season thinking Bahl was going to seamlessly replace Graves role.

This was my worry going into the season as well, and I am one of the lowest people on Graves.

That said, Graves has been dog water with PIT. So...not sure he would have been an improvement anyway.

 

[Devs3cups]

I agree but I'm a little disappointed that we went into this season with so much youth on the backend.

It was made worse by a truck load of injuries but I still think it was a bad idea going into the season thinking Bahl was going to seamlessly replace Graves role.

I understand, but at the same time, Dougie got injured, and Luke/Simon had to come on at some point. It’s growing pains for a big benefit down the line imo. Had to happen at some point.

 

[Bleedred]

It doesn't matter how many quality goalies there are in the league, the issue is that they keep going back to Vanecek again and again and again. He's the worst goalie in the entire league. He's 91 out of 91.

Fitz's inability to make any move at all, even a negligible move that is just a little less bad to stabilize the situation a little, is a huge error on an otherwise solid resume.

Oh and he also had an entire offseason to address the goaltending and failed to do anything.

To be fair, they have at least stopped going to Vanecek as much since Daws came up. They’ve given Daws more of a rope than what they were giving Schmid. Maybe because Daws was good his first few games, where Schmid had some bad games right off the bat to start the season.

November is really when they OD’d themselves on Vitek. I think he had an .867% that month to Schmid’s .916%, albeit in much fewer games played.

I have no more empathy at all for Vitek. I’ll feel rotten and take everything I said back if we hear that he’s entered player assistance for mental health issues, but he’s become so incredibly unlike able this season.

 

[Bad Goalie]

I wonder if there is a bit of a vicious cycle too between the skaters and the goalies on this team. Because it's not just VV that has sucked and given up massive softies.

I wonder if the skaters get so discouraged by a soft goal that they start dragging for a while, or playing a completely different game, while the goalies are so on edge because they know if they give up one goal the team is literally going to crumble. We have seen that time and time again. 1 goal against becomes 2 or 3 in a matter of minutes. And it's not generally terrible goals that follow the softie. It's the team utterly falling apart at the smallest sign of adversity and getting pinned in the zone for minutes at a time. That needs to be addressed too. We shouldn't get pinned in our own zone for 3 minutes after every goal against. If the team is collapsing because they are afraid of giving up another chance that will end up in another softie, the coach has to coach them out of that mentality.

I believe what you are pointing out is actually a NJ Devils coached behavior. The Utica Comets do exactly the same thing. Get a lead no matter when and then become a defensive team in order to hold it. Problem is they don't play a tight defensive, in your face, no available ice, defensive system. They put their keepers in a virtual shooting gallery. They so often give the goal right back.

It can't be a coincidence that both teams do the same thing. You'll never convince me it isn't a plan put forth by Lindy that all of the players have to learn to play. PROBLEM? His normal defensive system is so different from the scheme they would have to play, that there is no way they could master BOTH schemes! That "katy bar the door" system is the toughest to enact and is usually only employed late in a game with a 2+ goal lead. Teams that do try play that system every game from the opening faceoff are really fun to watch, but the system is so exhausting that it's impossible to run for an entire season.

Those who poo-poo Green as a head coach are well to keep up that chatter. That was the system he employed in Utica. It was highly successful for one season, 2014-15, and led to a Calder Cup Final season. Other than that it didn't work.

I have been watching it here for 3 seasons. Dineen obviously just does what he's told. I cringe whenever they take a lead knowing what I am going to see. The Comets crowd has come to the point of booing the process.

Just my .02 cents.

PS
We also have a problem coming out ready to start on most nights.
That often extends to every period.
The last 3 minutes of a period are also gut wrenching, because they go into that defensive system they are rarely able to play.

Syracuse and Rochester are 2 teams that have feasted on those moments. They are the 2 teams Utica plays way more than others during the course of every season. Think their coaches know something?

 

[Bleedred]

This was my worry going into the season as well, and I am one of the lowest people on Graves.

That said, Graves has been dog water with PIT. So...not sure he would have been an improvement anyway.

Severson also finds himself on the blooper reels a lot in Columbus.

There's been so many times where I'm doing my goals reviews and the announcers are talking about how poor of a play he made on one of the goals. It's so frequent.

 

[TheUnseenHand]

Players becoming deflated by softies is actually a thing. It’s happened before. All throughout history. It’s not surprising in the least.

Didn’t mean to quote you twice. I’m out walking lol.

Yes, but I'm suggesting there is a second part to that. That is, as a goalie, if you know your team is going to absolutely crumble if you allow a single goal, you probably play very different as well. I can't imagine it helps.

The point @Bad Goalie made is interesting though. That it may be a system thing. I think there is a lot of validity to that

 

[Oneiro]

Smith, Siegenthaler, Hamilton, Miller, Marino. I think that’s enough veteran experience on the NHL squad when you have two top five picks waiting. It’s just bad luck and a regression from our shutdown guys (that’s very odd to me).

It is bizarre that Bahl plays such tough minutes though. He doesn’t have the escapability or hockey sense of the other two and should be sheltered with Miller.

 

[Bleedred]

Yes, but I'm suggesting there is a second part to that. That is, as a goalie, if you know your team is going to absolutely crumble if you allow a single goal, you probably play very different as well. I can't imagine it helps.

The point @Bad Goalie made is interesting though. That it may be a system thing. I think there is a lot of validity to that

I'm not saying this means I'm right but just for fun.....

I've counted more stoppable goals on Vitek Vanecek than any other goalie in the league this year, other than Georgiev who he is tied with.

Georgiev has a lower percentage though, because he also plays almost every game and has allowed more overall goals.

Again, he's not the highest percentage, I'd have to look up everybody's actual goals against number and divide my number by that number, but he's like 37% right now. I think my average this year is just under 30%. Meaning like 29.75 or something.

Pretty bad......

Just going off the last two games because they're fresh.

Goals 2 and 3 against Colorado, goals 1, 2 and 4 against Calgary. So that's now 5 of his last 7 are stoppable at best and some are downright hideous at worst. He only just now worked himself to the top of leaderboard in the last two games. I never had him leading at any point this year before Thursday.

I will say this, I had him for zero goals stoppable against Tampa (the second game, the last one before the break), but I clearly remember even nailing him on the only goal he allowed to Columbus in the game before that.

This guy is RANCID this year. He's a zombie at this point. He WILL be until he's off the team.

 

[bossram]

Severson also finds himself on the blooper reels a lot in Columbus.

There's been so many times where I'm doing my goals reviews and the announcers are talking about how poor of a play he made on one of the goals. It's so frequent.

Yeah. I don't really think the issue is that we don't have Graves or Severson per se. When you have have a cluster of injuries on defense, and you have to over-leverage guys, it's tough no matter what.

Again, to me, it's down to coaching. You have to design the system and style of play around the players you have (or until the GM overhauls the pieces available to the coach). If you have an inexperienced blueline at best, and skaky goaltending, you shouldn't be running a system that exposes those flaws even more.

 

[Guttersniped]

For the trade anything for the Markstrom crowd, why the hell would CGY trade anyone? They are about to be in a playoff spot

Calgary traded Zadorov and Lindstrom because they didn’t want to stay, Zadorov had a big mouth and Lindstrom was starting to sandbag ala Hall 2019-20.

So if Markstrom could theoretically get shipped out if he really wants it, but he would have to aggressively ask for a trade because his season started like this

and since then has gone like this

And this isn’t counting his 5-2 win, 35/37 shots (.946), vs the NYI today.

Again, my guess is they trade Tanev and re-sign Hanifin. The wildcard spot is too much up for grabs and Hanifin is too difficult to replace.

 

[JimEIV]

I just saw Vanecek is top 10 in the league in wins...it made me chuckle...kind of interesting...

Only 20th in games played too.

 

[JimEIV]

I don't know why but I find this hilarious.

Shesterkin 33GP - 20 wins

Vanecek 31GP - 17 wins

 

[Bleedred]

Markstrom is a weird goalie.

I'm admittedly lazy right now, so I'm not gonna hard declare, just a soft declaration.

I looked up his stats the last few years using I think all three sites? Maybe I left off natural stat trick. Their site is too hard for me to read sometimes.

I think both evolving hockey and moneypuck seemed to be somewhat in agreement that Markstrom's 21-22 (Second in Vezina I think?) wasn't as good as his overall numbers, nor was his 22-23 as bad as his overall numbers that year.

He was pretty solid for much of his time in Vancouver, at least until after he became a regular (Travis Green's system is easy on goalies perhaps?!), but seems to be back and forth in Calgary.

Just going with moneypuck right now because their site is more convenient and reader friendly (doesn't mean they're the most accurate, but they are the easiest to read and have more numbers and features than evolving hockey) he wasn't THAT bad last year. Their model has him as just breaking below even in GSAx. Like by -0.005 per 60. His expected save percentage was .893% and he was .892%. Maybe this is because everybody stopped playing for Sutter? I don't know, but that's even lower than Vitek's expected save percentage behind this year's team, so they really have them playing pretty badly last year.

For that HUGE season he had in 21-22? They only have him as a +0.175 GSAx per 60 and a save percentage 4 points above expected. His expected save percentage on their model for that year was .918% and he was a .922%. They were playing about as good that year as they were bad last year.

They have his 20-21 as even worse than 21-22. That may be his worst year since he became an NHL regular. They have him as a -0.224 GSAx and a save percentage 4 points below expected. That was only the 56 game covid season, where he only faced teams based in Canada. It also was the season which featured the coaching change from Geoff Ward to Darryl Sutter. He played 43 games that year though.

If you look at his Vancouver seasons on moneypuck, he's flirting with the even line. Sometimes dead even, and slightly above to slightly above, despite league average/above league average save percentages. These are looking at his full seasons in Vancouver. Not his earlier years where he played a few games a season.

Perhaps what we can take from those is Travis Green's system forces goalies to face much easier work than Ruff's?!

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

I just saw Vanecek is top 10 in the league in wins...it made me chuckle...kind of interesting...

Only 20th in games played too.

View attachment 817551

I don't know why but I find this hilarious.

Shesterkin 33GP - 20 wins

Vanecek 31GP - 17 wins

its almost like wins are a stupid way to judge goalies?

crazy, I know!

 

[Bleedred]

I just saw Vanecek is top 10 in the league in wins...it made me chuckle...kind of interesting...

Only 20th in games played too.

View attachment 817551

This is why wins are not a great stat for goalies over a single season.

Isn't he winning at a similar clip to last year?

He's due to lose some games 2-1, where I'm gonna be the only one bitching about him, where there's a ton of cope posts like ''It's not Vitek's fault! He's played GREAT tonight! We just scored one goal'', which is very realistic considering how he's overachieved in the wins column to this point in the year.

He's probably due for some hard luck losses, to collect on a decent amount of pedestrian wins.