These are his personal feelings. His model is lower on us. Model has us at I think 90.7 or 91.7
Right now, I'd say the Devils certainly have a reasonable shot at the playoffs this year, but there is a lot of volatility in the team chances.
First, we have to look at the Metropolitan Division. It's brutal -- easily the best division in the NHL. Every other division has an awful team or two, a patsy or two to pick up easy points against. The Pacific has San Jose, Seattle and Anaheim. The Central has Arizona and Chicago, who should be the two worst teams in the entire league. The Atlantic has Montreal, and although Buffalo has an exciting young group of talented kids I don't see them having much of a shot at .500. Meanwhile, the only "weak" team in the Metro is Philadelphia, but with John Tortorella coaching a low-event/tight-checking/physical style, they're still not an easy team to play against.
I'd go so far as to say -- and I don't see this as a "hot take" at all -- that
every team in the Metropolitan (except Philly) would be a reasonable pick to finish top 3 in the Pacific. The discrepancy in divisional talent is that wide.
The Devils are very, very improved over last year. The weakest link on the regular roster was Ty Smith, and he's been replaced by an exceptionally solid defender in John Marino. This is a huge upgrade. 70+ games by Jack Hughes and Nico Hischier would immediately make the Devils a contender for a post-season spot -- the injuries hurt New Jersey as much as any team last year, and the odds are against that sort of awful luck bleeding (pun intended) into this season. And, most importantly, the upgrade in net -- Vanecek is an average NHL goaltender and a healthy Blackwood is just above this -- is tremendously key compared to the blatant and crippling tire fire between the pipes the Devils suffered last season.
This is a young team, and several players are certain to improve or add to the talent base -- notably Mercer, Holtz and Zetterlund. The blueline and bottom 6 offer more physicality and tenacity, making the team tougher to play against. Palat and Haula offer big-time upgrades over two simply awful players in Zacha (gone) and Johnsson (a likely scratch until injury strikes).
Of course, the divisional talent in the Metro must be factored in. Carolina and and the Rangers have emerged as cup contenders. Washington and Pittsburgh have their Cup-windows closing, but they are still not to be discounted. The Islanders may have been the only team with worse luck than New Jersey last season, and a bounce back is certainly possible. Columbus is another up and comer, and the addition of Johnny Gaudreau and a full season of Patrick Laine combined with a physical/tenacious team makes them a reasonable playoff dark horse, as well.
Here's how I'll call the 2022-23 standings, and we can all make fun of me later (* denotes playoffs):
PACIFIC
1 Calgary*
2 Edmonton*
3 Vegas*
4 Vancouver*
5 Los Angeles
6 Anaheim
7 San Jose
8 Seatlle
CENTRAL
1 Colorado*
2 Minnesota*
3 Nashville*
4 St. Louis*
5 Winnipeg
6 Dallas
7 Arizona
8 Chicago
ATLANTIC
1 Tampa*
2 Toronto*
3 Florida*
4 Ottawa
5 Boston
6 Detroit
7 Buffalo
8 Montreal
METRO
1 Carolina*
2 Rangers*
3 Pittsburgh*
4 Washington*
5 New Jersey*
6 Islanders
7 Columbus
8 Philadelphia
Hart: Matthews
Norris: Makar
Vezina: Shesterkin
Calder: Perfetti