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Devils discussion (news, notes and speculation) - part III

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onmygameboi said:
Let me play devils's advocate, if his performance and potential are low, why would someone send us back something of value?

I guess you could argue "for a change of scenery", but what do you think his value looks like? You'd do a Haula for Zacha type move?
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Age, draft status, past performance earlier in his career, contract, etc... Nils Lundkvist got back a 1st round pick over 4 years after he was drafted despite being unable to crack NYR's roster. I also think teams don't always make the best evaluations on players either in trade or UFA, we see time and time again teams make deals that end up looking bad quick.

I also don't think he'd get a big return or anything like that, It would basically a change of scenery trade or for a veteran player on a team that might be looking to get younger and retool/rebuild.

Something around Mercer for Pinto could work depending on how Ottawa values Mercer, they have Stutzle, Norris, Greig and Ostapchuk all capable of playing down the middle, They lack scoring and could potentially view Mercer's earlier seasons as a reason to believe in his scoring potential on a different team.

A team like Seattle might be looking for a re-tooling to start building around Beniers, Wright, Catton, etc.. and could be interested in a swap of Mercer for Bjorkstrand.

Brunette coached Mercer previously during his two best seasons, maybe he sees value in him and something around Mercer for O'Reilly could make sense for both teams.
 
@bossram
Sure let's play.

One player is an elite goalscorer with one of the better shots in the league. one player is here for grit, one is considered our best player. Goals above expected.

Player A: -5.2% xg(worst on the team)
Player B: .6 %xg (2nd of all regular Devils)
Player C: -2.1%g
 
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devilsblood said:
His career is all of 3.6 years old. And I wouldn't say he's "coming off his two worst seasons" given this season has 30+ games to go.
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Mercer would have to do a serious turn around for this current season to not end up as one of his worst.

Also the length of his career is irrelevant to the point. The point was that Mercer's trajectory is on a clear downturn, while Jack by year 4 went from "disappointing rookie" to 99 point season.
 
Just as an example, Mercer+2nd for Ryan O'Reilly is the sort of thing that seems very Fitz if ROR approves.

But I also think it's worth stapling Bratt on the other wing w/ Mercer, Haula down the middle and see what happens.
 
devilsblood said:
Player A is Timo. Player B is Nico.

Nico has 13 5v5 goals. He only has 7 5v5 assists, but 6 of those assists are primary. Only 1 secondary.
Timo has 9 5v5 goals and 12 assists, only 4 of which are primary. 8 Secondary.

Nico is an elite two way player, a center in fact, great face off guy. Good PK'r. At 5v5 I'd say he is the driver on that line, and Timo's lack of finish has dragged on Nico's point totals. I don't totally poo poo secondary assists, but Timo's numbers are very much boosted by them, while Nico is glaringly lacking.

Goals + primaries, Nico leads 19 to 13.

Further Timo is on pace for the worst 5v5 shot rate in his career. One of the worst 5v5 shooting % seasons. And the worst 5v5 goal scoring rates since he played 34 games as a rookie. He is our highest paid fwd. Yeah, this is a disappointment.

Merely comparing top line 5v5 point totals in order to show Timo is playing at a high level? Not the tact I would take.
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I agree that Nico is obviously a superior player. However, the criteria @billingtons ghost uses to judge players is purely by points only. If Timo produces poorly, in his opinion, then surely he would be forced to conclude that Nico is also a poor producer, by his own criteria!

You have Timo's shooting percentage as a negative, but I'd say that he still is producing decently at 5v5 even with his career-low shooting percentage means there is room for improvement purely from positive regression. I would like to see him shoot more.

Timo leads the team with a 58% xG mark at 5v5. 65% in actual goals. NJ is largely carrying the play with him on the ice. That is very, very solid.
 
billingtons ghost said:
No, I literally cannot. Because unlike you and some on this board, I cannot take one derivative stat from a complex game without any context and then claim all moral high ground, like there cannot be multiple explanations for the stat.

I also don't claim simple correlations and comparisons to be "fact" like @Zajacs Bowl Cut
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You literally base your conclusions solely on points. That is, in fact, one stat.

Your only evidence for your Meier take is pointzzzzz. That's it.
 
Lou Bloom said:
Mercer would have to do a serious turn around for this current season to not end up as one of his worst.

Also the length of his career is irrelevant to the point. The point was that Mercer's trajectory is on a clear downturn, while Jack by year 4 went from "disappointing rookie" to 99 point season.
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How is the length of the career irrelevant? It's so short that trends are not at all defined.

Also should be noted his defensive usage has gone up dramatically the last 2 years. PK toi at career high. 5v5 defensive zone starts at career high. Offensive zone start rate at career low. His rookie season his offensive zone starts were at 67%. This year it's at 42%. Opponent matchups more difficult. 5v5 Blocked shots at all time high.
 
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bossram said:
I agree that Nico is obviously a superior player. However, the criteria @billingtons ghost uses to judge players is purely by points only. If Timo produces poorly, in his opinion, then surely he would be forced to conclude that Nico is also a poor producer, by his own criteria!

You have Timo's shooting percentage as a negative, but I'd say that he still is producing decently at 5v5 even with his career-low shooting percentage means there is room for improvement purely from positive regression. I would like to see him shoot more.

Timo leads the team with a 58% xG mark at 5v5. 65% in actual goals. NJ is largely carrying the play with him on the ice. That is very, very solid.
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Is this because of Timo? Or Nico?

And before you give me Timo's on ice numbers without Nico do note that with Nico he has a 40% ozone start, without Nico he is at 90ish%.

And it does look like Timo is now on the 3rd line. Let's see how he does.
 
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bossram said:
I agree that Nico is obviously a superior player. However, the criteria @billingtons ghost uses to judge players is purely by points only. If Timo produces poorly, in his opinion, then surely he would be forced to conclude that Nico is also a poor producer, by his own criteria!

You have Timo's shooting percentage as a negative, but I'd say that he still is producing decently at 5v5 even with his career-low shooting percentage means there is room for improvement purely from positive regression. I would like to see him shoot more.

Timo leads the team with a 58% xG mark at 5v5. 65% in actual goals. NJ is largely carrying the play with him on the ice. That is very, very solid.
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I didn't judge him by points alone. I'm judging him by is overall play, which has been underwhelming with the puck, without the puck and in all three zones.

This guy is supposed to be our best player every night, and he's not. And he's not alone.

Your numbers compare him to Nico, but there's no mention of Nico's heavy lifting on the defensive side of the puck now winning in the dot (oh yeah but faceoffs dont matter in told).

Now if you came at me with the argument that Timo is in a line that gets an unfair amount of Dzone starts bc of Nico being a linemate or took into account his new found dedication to block shots, then there's something to talk about.

But whipping out one stat as is done folks's style and hanging your hats on the one single 'fact' that supposedly proves a point is nonsense and reducing the complex game to just a couple of variables.
 
devilsblood said:
How is the length of the career irrelevant? It's so short that trends are not at all defined.

Also should be noted his defensive usage has gone up dramatically the last 2 years. PK toi at career high. 5v5 defensive zone starts at career high. Offensive zone start rate at career low. His rookie season his offensive zone starts were at 67%. This year it's at 42%. Opponent matchups more difficult. 5v5 Blocked shots at all time high.
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How is nearly 4 years not enough time to define a trend? He's played nearly 300 games in the NHL. There are players who go from projected #1 overall picks in their draft class to being drafted outside the 1st round based off 1 year of data but 4 years of NHL time isn't enough time to determine a players on a downward/stagnant trend?

Who cares what his usage percentage is if he's not performing? I'm not basing my opinion on Mercer off of points, I'm basing it on watching the games and seeing a lack of impact offensively and defensively. It's not like he's driving play and creating chances and just getting unlucky, he's average nearly 18 minutes per game and has been played up and down the lineup and has failed to make an impact no matter the situation.
 
billingtons ghost said:
@bossram
Sure let's play.

One player is an elite goalscorer with one of the better shots in the league. one player is here for grit, one is considered our best player. Goals above expected.

Player A: -5.2% xg(worst on the team)
Player B: .6 %xg (2nd of all regular Devils)
Player C: -2.1%g
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Just happy to see you value something other than the points column.
 
devilsblood said:
Is this because of Timo? Or Nico?

And before you give me Timo's on ice numbers without Nico do note that with Nico he has a 40% ozone start, without Nico he is at 90ish%.

And it does look like Timo is now on the 3rd line. Let's see how he does.
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Again, as I said, I think that Nico is the superior player. This isn't some kind of "gotcha".

I would ascribe of a lot of the playdriving value to Nico. However, given that Nico and Timo, in combination, achieve these results in tough deployment, is still a pretty positive contribution from Timo in my view. He is not weighing Nico down at all in toughs. Nico's xG% actually ticks down a bit without Timo.
 
billingtons ghost said:
I didn't judge him by points alone. I'm judging him by is overall play, which has been underwhelming with the puck, without the puck and in all three zones.

This guy is supposed to be our best player every night, and he's not. And he's not alone.

Your numbers compare him to Nico, but there's no mention of Nico's heavy lifting on the defensive side of the puck now winning in the dot (oh yeah but faceoffs dont matter in told).

Now if you came at me with the argument that Timo is in a line that gets an unfair amount of Dzone starts bc of Nico being a linemate or took into account his new found dedication to block shots, then there's something to talk about.

But whipping out one stat as is done folks's style and hanging your hats on the one single 'fact' that supposedly proves a point is nonsense and reducing the complex game to just a couple of variables.
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In other posts with @devilsblood I actually discussed all those things.

But your primary criticism with Timo is just a lack of pointzzz. This is why you said he's a disappointment. It's not inaccurate at all to say you're the one judging him by one number.

I don't think anyone on this board believes he is "supposed" be the Devils best player. That's an unrealistic expectation and a weird standard.
 
Lou Bloom said:
How is nearly 4 years not enough time to define a trend? He's played nearly 300 games in the NHL. There are players who go from projected #1 overall picks in their draft class to being drafted outside the 1st round based off 1 year of data but 4 years of NHL time isn't enough time to determine a players on a downward/stagnant trend?

Who cares what his usage percentage is if he's not performing? I'm not basing my opinion on Mercer off of points, I'm basing it on watching the games and seeing a lack of impact offensively and defensively. It's not like he's driving play and creating chances and just getting unlucky, he's average nearly 18 minutes per game and has been played up and down the lineup and has failed to make an impact no matter the situation.
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Well Mercer's 4 years(and it's not yet a full 4 years) definitely don't show a defined trend in terms of points as the trended upward from year 1 to year 2, and then down ward the last 2 years

But his usage is absolutely trending defensively. I assume Keefe believes he is performing well defensively as he is using him as such.

Similarly Nico's point rates trended downward from 1 year through year 4. But again, so early in his career it didn't mean much. And he, like Mercer, also carried a heavier and heavier defensive burden during that time.

And then he broke out offensively in year 5.

Hopefully we see something similar for Mercer.
 
I have no problem with moving Mercer. He has definitely flatlined in his progression. We are talking two year in advance, so obviously a lot can change, but this version of Mercer I really don't have much of an interest in having here beyond his current deal / rfa years left.

I'd rather have JT Miller at 8 million over the next three than Mercer at 4 over the next three. Now, Miller has an additional 2 beyond that which is what complicates matters, and I'm not sure you can build a deal for Miller around Mercer as the primary piece, but I certainly wouldn't hate it if they did that.

20 goal, 45 point wingers just don't hold a ton of value in this league and I don't think it's a crazy idea that you can replace his production at a comparable price pretty easily on the market. There's no surplus value with Mercer right now.
 
devilsblood said:
Well Mercer's 4 years(and it's not yet a full 4 years) definitely don't show a defined trend in terms of points as the trended upward from year 1 to year 2, and then down ward the last 2 years

But his usage is absolutely trending defensively. I assume Keefe believes he is performing well defensively as he is using him as such.

Similarly Nico's point rates trended downward from 1 year through year 4. But again, so early in his career it didn't mean much. And he, like Mercer, also carried a heavier and heavier defensive burden during that time.

And then he broke out offensively in year 5.

Hopefully we see something similar for Mercer.
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It's not just about points. His level of play the past year and a half has been poor.

Just because his usage percentage is up doesn't mean his performance has been good. It's also not like the Devils have a ton of defensive minded forwards that are worthy of high defensive usage, the Devils have started using Jack and Bratt on the PK, after Hischier there's not an obvious forward to use in defensive situations.

Hischier's points had a downward trend due to injury, He also went from playing with Hall during his Hart trophy season to 3 straight seasons where the Devils leading scorers put up 50, 45 and 35 points in 3 straight seasons. His play was clearly still high end but his teammates and overall help declined around him. Mercer doesn't have that excuse, he's got to play a ton of minutes next to players like Hischier, Hughes, Bratt, Meier, etc... and has been unable to perform despite having teammates that can drive play at a high level and allow him to play a simpler role that in theory should suit his skillset.
 
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