Devils discussion (news, notes and speculation) - part III

[dgibb10]

I don't believe Mercer is good defensively, I think he's average at best and offensively he's been extremely limited the past two seasons despite being given opportunity in the top 6 plenty of times. He's still young and can turn it around but at this point I think he's a middling forward.

Noesen was great on the Power play and he's a great finisher. But I don't buy him being a dominant possession player, I think that's much more due to him playing on a Carolina team that has put up elite possession metrics year in and year out up and down their lineup and then getting to play on a line with Hischier and Meier for a large portion of this season. He's still good in that area but those numbers are buyoed by the situations he's been in.

Palat has been mediocre since arriving to NJ. He's not bad but he's very clearly being carried by two elite players.

Tom Wilson put up 35 points with only 1 point coming from the PP that season. He also put up 15 points in 21 games all Even strength in route to the Stanley Cup. He was clearly a High impact player that season.

Yeah because comparing Paul Cotter and Tom Wilson is a totally reasonable take.

"and then getting to play on a line with Hischier and Meier for a large portion of this season"

This right here is the issue. There will be no pleasing you. No matter who we stick in said top 6 you will discredit their production and metrics for playing alongside Bratt-Jack-Timo-Nico. Unless we go get a preexisting star you will always be convinced it doesn't count and the success won't be enough for you. And you will be convinced that just "adding a star" will make the line much better.

Even though that hasn't been shown to be the reality.

We added Meier because "Nico needs better than Tatar and Mercer". It didn't really make a difference.

We added Toffoli because "Jack and Bratt need better than Haula/Palat". It didn't really make a difference.

I wonder if playing alongside guys like Barkov, Tkachuk, Mackinnon, Rantanen, Eichel, Stone, Kucherov, Point, etc helped those other players.

Lehkonen for example has spent most of his time alongside Nathan f***ing Mackinnon, and somehow also gets 56% of his ice time alongside Makar over the last 3 years. (he loses his minutes when he's not out there with mackinnon).

Sam Bennett has spent his time stapled to Matthew Tkachuk, and Huberdeau before him.

That is what playing in a top 6 looks like. You're going to play alongside good players.

You can't pick and choose who from that group you're going to discredit for playing with good linemates.

 

[Devs3cups]

Halonen is the missing piece in the bottom 6

In all seriousness, I wouldn't mind giving him a look on the 4th line. 13 goals, 21 points in 31 games. Can he play RW? Maybe he could slot in for Bastian.

 

[NJDfan86]

Ya. Palat's goal scoring rate over the last 25 games is the best on the team. Tied for 25th in league during that stretch.

I've wavered a little recently because he's botched a couple op's, but he's burying them at an excellent rate.

He looks so much better than earlier in the season - results, process, and even physically. Seems likely to me that he was struggling with the family stuff (who wouldn’t), since most 30+ players who looked as rough as he did earlier generally don’t recover as well.

 

[Billdo]

I have no interest in waiting to see if Haula will be ready WHEN HE COMES BACK. We should not be making any decisions with relying on him in mind. That doesn't mean that a trade has to be made NOW.

Nowhere did I say to make a trade now.



why? Been there, done that. Moved on to bigger and better things.

Zacha>Haula.

 

[dgibb10]

Yeah because comparing Paul Cotter and Tom Wilson is a totally reasonable take.

Trying to use what tom wilson has done since then to justify it back then

Heading into that cup season, Tom Wilson was a 4th line winger who threw a lot of hits and had yet to crack even double digit goals despite having 4 full years under his belt

If you were a Washington fan heading into that season you would absolutely not have been saying "let's pencil Tom Wilson in as a cup contenders top 6 forward", or when he had 18 points halfway through that year

So let's stop with the revisionist history, shall we?

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

Halonen is the missing piece in the bottom 6

In all seriousness, I wouldn't mind giving him a look on the 4th line. 13 goals, 21 points in 31 games. Can he play RW? Maybe he could slot in for Bastian.

He should've made it out of preseason/camp lol

 

[Lou Bloom]

"and then getting to play on a line with Hischier and Meier for a large portion of this season"

This right here is the issue. There will be no pleasing you. No matter who we stick in said top 6 you will discredit their production and metrics for playing alongside Bratt-Jack-Timo-Nico. Unless we go get a preexisting star you will always be convinced it doesn't count and the success won't be enough for you. And you will be convinced that just "adding a star" will make the line much better.

Even though that hasn't been shown to be the reality.

We added Meier because "Nico needs better than Tatar and Mercer". It didn't really make a difference.

We added Toffoli because "Jack and Bratt need better than Haula/Palat". It didn't really make a difference.

I wonder if playing alongside guys like Barkov, Tkachuk, Mackinnon, Rantanen, Eichel, Stone, Kucherov, Point, etc helped those other players.

Lehkonen for example has spent most of his time alongside Nathan f***ing Mackinnon, and somehow also gets 56% of his ice time alongside Makar over the last 3 years. (he loses his minutes when he's not out there with mackinnon).

Sam Bennett has spent his time stapled to Matthew Tkachuk, and Huberdeau before him.

That is what playing in a top 6 looks like. You're going to play alongside good players.

You can't pick and choose who from that group you're going to discredit for playing with good linemates.

How is having questions about metrics an unfair point? I like what Noesen brings but I've watched plenty of him and I don't see a player that is dominating possession, I see a good offensive player that's a good finisher.

Yeah playing with great players will make you perform better. Now can you admit that the reverse is also true and that the better quality of supporting players will also make the stars/superstar players perform better also?

It's not about discrediting it's about asking questions. Metrics aren't gospel, you can question how much these metrics are an indicator of a single player's performance vs situation.

Trying to use what tom wilson has done since then to justify it back then

Heading into that cup season, Tom Wilson was a 4th line winger who threw a lot of hits and had yet to crack even double digit goals despite having 4 full years under his belt

If you were a Washington fan heading into that season you would absolutely not have been saying "let's pencil Tom Wilson in as a cup contenders top 6 forward", or when he had 18 points halfway through that year

So let's stop with the revisionist history, shall we?

Another strawman argument. Where did I say Wilson was penciled in as a top 6 player going into that year? I said that Tom Wilson performed at a top 6 level in 2017-2018 not that everyone in Washington knew he'd play like one.

Just like how we were hoping last season between Mercer/Holtz/Palat that at least one of them would cement themselves as a top 6 player last season.

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

Tom Wilson was a f***ing first round pick, anyone comparing him to Paul Cotter has lost the f***ing plot. I hate when people think Tom Wilson is some shit hockey player that just randomly developed into a good power forward in the league that every fanbase would salivate having. Cotter, even with his shooting bender earlier this year, is not close to what Tom Wilson is and never will be.

 

[dgibb10]

How is having questions about metrics an unfair point? I like what Noesen brings but I've watched plenty of him and I don't see a player that is dominating possession, I see a good offensive player that's a good finisher.

Yeah playing with great players will make you perform better. Now can you admit that the reverse is also true and that the better quality of supporting players will also make the stars/superstar players perform better also?

It's not about discrediting it's about asking questions. Metrics aren't gospel, you can question how much these metrics are an indicator of a single player's performance vs situation.

Another strawman argument. Where did I say Wilson was penciled in as a top 6 player going into that year? I said that Tom Wilson performed at a top 6 level in 2017-2018 not that everyone in Washington knew he'd play like one.

Just like how we were hoping last season between Mercer/Holtz/Palat that at least one of them would cement themselves as a top 6 player last season.

If you think Tom Wilson's 17-18 regular season was "top 6 level", you are lying to yourself.

 

[dgibb10]

Yeah playing with great players will make you perform better. Now can you admit that the reverse is also true and that the better quality of supporting players will also make the stars/superstar players perform better also?

Not to the point that it's worth paying star prices for a 3rd piece on the line. Diminishing returns.

How much do you think adding Alex Tuch helps the goal differential of the Bratt-Jack line over the course of a season?

Alex Tuch would be better served if he could be an elite driver for the 3rd line.

Or honestly, based on Nico's playstyle, putting him back with, as you call it "not top 6 guys" like Tatar-Mercer again, and seeing if Tuch-Meier-C can be an elite line as well.

 

[dgibb10]

Tom Wilson was a f***ing first round pick, anyone comparing him to Paul Cotter has lost the f***ing plot. I hate when people think Tom Wilson is some shit hockey player that just randomly developed into a good power forward in the league that every fanbase would salivate having. Cotter, even with his shooting bender earlier this year, is not close to what Tom Wilson is and never will be.

Wilson was a 1st round pick with a normal development path who became a top 6 caliber forward when he was 24 years old, specifically in large part because he finally began to shoot at a decent clip, becoming a 15% shooter after being a 7.5% shooter for the first half decade of his career.

That doesn't mean we lie to ourselves about what he was before that to justify the need to try and add another star winger.

And let's be real. If we went out and grabbed someone with this type or profile or trajectory (someone more like a Ridly Greig), we certainly would not be satisying people in here claiming we need a top 6 winger.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

Multiple pages of nonsense

 

[Lou Bloom]

If you think Tom Wilson's 17-18 regular season was "top 6 level", you are lying to yourself.

He put up 33 EV strength points to go along with his defense and physicality. He had more EV strength points than Palms did that season.

Not to the point that it's worth paying star prices for a 3rd piece on the line. Diminishing returns.

How much do you think adding Alex Tuch helps the goal differential of the Bratt-Jack line over the course of a season?

Alex Tuch would be better served if he could be an elite driver for the 3rd line.

Or honestly, based on Nico's playstyle, putting him back with, as you call it "not top 6 guys" like Tatar-Mercer again, and seeing if Tuch-Meier-C can be an elite line as well.

I don't buy the diminishing returns argument with players that can play all situations. That argument only works if you're building a line with players who derive the majority of value by creating with the puck on their stick.

I think adding Alex tuch to either line is going to be an improvement. He's a very good all around winger that has a game that fits well with stars.

You could spread your talent around or load up the top 6. I think both are valid strategies.

I also don't think the Devils have to get a top 6 forward. The Only reason I'd be interested in Tuch is because of his seamless fit, contract and age. I wouldn't be actively looking for a top 6 improvement because I'm fine with Noesen and Palat but I'm also not going to pass up on what I think is a great player and fit because of them.

 

[My3Sons]

Multiple pages of nonsense

Your honor I put a lot of effort into that Motion. You can just deny it without the editorial comment.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

so uhhh how about Dougie Hamilton's contract?!

 

[dgibb10]

He put up 33 EV strength points to go along with his defense and physicality. He had more EV strength points than Palms did that season.

He played on Alex f***ing Ovechkins line with either Nik Backstrom or Evgeny Kuznetsov as his C.
You know who else is on pace for 33 EV points.

Ondrej Palat

Cotter on pace for 29

Mercer on pace for 31

Noesen on pace for 31

And here's where we act like Wilson was some defensive savant back then lol.


WILSON THAT YEAR WAS THE LITERAL DEFINITION OF STICKING A COMPLIMENTARY PIECE ALONGSIDE 2 STARS.

 

[dgibb10]

I don't buy the diminishing returns argument with players that can play all situations. That argument only works if you're building a line with players who derive the majority of value by creating with the puck on their stick.

I think adding Alex tuch to either line is going to be an improvement. He's a very good all around winger that has a game that fits well with stars.

You could spread your talent around or load up the top 6. I think both are valid strategies.

I also don't think the Devils have to get a top 6 forward. The Only reason I'd be interested in Tuch is because of his seamless fit, contract and age. I wouldn't be actively looking for a top 6 improvement because I'm fine with Noesen and Palat but I'm also not going to pass up on what I think is a great player and fit because of them.

I don't think Tuch is what you think he is, both defensively or as a complimentary piece.

 

[Incharge1976]

About a month and 50 pages of craziness just to defend not moving Dougie's contract. Yawn...

 

[NJDevils17]

Agree or disagree but Markstrom is third in Vezina odds with sportsbooks.

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

Agree or disagree but Markstrom is third in Vezina odds with sportsbooks.

I agree and I've been one of his biggest detractors at certain points this year because he wasn't carrying his weight. Since Christmas, he's probably the reason this team has been in games and won any (which is saying something because they only have like 3 wins since lol)

 

[NjDevsRR]

Team is good when BS like this pops up more often than not