Devils discussion (news, notes and speculation) - part III

[Emperoreddy]

Apparently we have kicked the tires of Jake Evan

 

[AfroThunder396]

We will make the playoffs because of goaltending and we will win in the playoffs because of defense and coaching.

 

[Emperoreddy]

We getting PK tomorrow.

 

[NjDevsRR]

We getting PK tomorrow.

@Emperoreddy when Mrs Fields wins in the home finale

 

[Emperoreddy]

@Emperoreddy when Mrs Fields wins in the home finale

I'm going to make sure I'm there that night

 

[Mr Bojanglez]

Apparently we have kicked the tires of Jake Evan

i could see that. There could be a rapport as a result of the Allen trade.

 

[SansaStark]

Noesen has completely transformed our forward group and power play for the better.

Best signing of Fitz’s career.

If it wasn’t for him the narrative would be why can’t this team score goals.

 

[Guttersniped]

I think lumping Keefe into that 2nd category is a bit of a stretch. Maybe any other coach would've got similar results, any coach not named Ruff or Green. But I do think Keefe fits this team really well and has implemented a good system, which the team has gotten away from a bit the past few weeks.

Also, Noesen was the most important move!

His characterization of 22-23 and 23-24 are so superficial that they’re almost meaningless.

Using the same data points, I broke up the previous seasons. (And added SH% & SV%.)

Yes, we had a blistering 5v5 game in the first half of 22-23 but it got worse in the second half, in terms of defense and actual production.

We completely imploded defensively last season.

We needed a new coach and that coach needed to address the defense.

The 5v5 offense is problematic right now. The top two lines are more defensively sound, but cook less, and the bottom six does jack shit.

Season	GP	Date	GF-xGA	xGF-xGA	GF/60	GA/60	xGF/60	xGA/60	SH%	SV%
22-23	1st 41	10/13-1/12	0.70	0.77	3.02	2.12	3.09	2.32	8.61	91.75
22-23	45	10/13-1/19	0.66	0.67	3.06	2.09	3.07	2.40	8.76	92.12
22-23	2nd 41	1/13-4/13	0.25	0.54	2.87	2.44	3.16	2.62	8.62	91.42
23-24	1st 41	10/12-1/15	0.20	0.33	2.73	2.76	2.86	2.53	9.11	90.13
23-24	45	10/12-1/22	0.20	0.26	2.79	2.86	2.85	2.59	9.30	89.92
23-24	2nd 41	1/17-4/15	-0.18	0.07	2.66	2.90	2.91	2.84	9.10	90.50
24-25	1st 41	10/4-1/1	0.20	0.64	2.44	2.19	2.88	2.24	8.60	91.10
24-25	45	10/4-1/11	0.19	0.63	2.43	2.14	2.87	2.25	8.64	91.26

 

[MasterofGrond]

so, worse? We scored more xG/60 on a team with a worse roster in 22-23, I really can’t believe we are debating THAT point.

The Devils don’t have someone who is going to shoot double digit above expected every year to mask goal scoring problems if it is systems based which seems like a totally reasonable question to me.

Yes but at the same time, we’re better defensively in an absolute sense. For a team with good special teams, being more or less equally good on absolute terms, but having fewer scoring events in both directions during 5on5 play is probably preferable, mathematically.

Now if only the finishing would balance out a bit, we’d really be cooking.

 

[NJDfan86]

Yes but at the same time, we’re better defensively in an absolute sense. For a team with good special teams, being more or less equally good on absolute terms, but having fewer scoring events in both directions during 5on5 play is probably preferable, mathematically.

Now if only the finishing would balance out a bit, we’d really be cooking.

We are better defensively- but CJ’s point (I’m guessing) is the overall team xG goal differential isn’t much different but we achieve it in different ways. I believe he really wants everyone to arrive at if we had the this quality of goaltending in 22-23 we would have been significantly better, possibly could’ve won a cup.

We have a really great goalie who’s equipped (and thrives) in a HD save environment - we need to generate more actual offense than we have so far.

 

[Bcap88]

No more dark mode ?!

 

[RSeen]

Turtoro is one of those online Devils fans who put way too much emphasis on the analytics without understanding that sometimes those numbers need further context.

Anyone who does any type of analysis should understand this. This guy clearly does not, which makes him a really weak analyst.

 

[jkrdevil]

You can’t say defense changes and coaching changes didn’t matter much when we just went through a stretch of shot suppression up there with the late 90’s Devils teams. Markstrom has been great but he doesn’t prevent shots being taken at him.

 

[SansaStark]

You can’t say defense changes and coaching changes didn’t matter much when we just went through a stretch of shot suppression up there with the late 90’s Devils teams. Markstrom has been great but he doesn’t prevent shots being taken at him.

Precisely.

The on-ice product, if you watch the games, is an entirely different process than Lindy. While i'll scream Noesen till the cows come home....Pesce and Dillon (Cotter too) have all brought a physicality/defensive aptitude that can't be quantified. Its an area-of-effect type ability.

 

[dgibb10]

Precisely.

The on-ice product, if you watch the games, is an entirely different process than Lindy. While i'll scream Noesen till the cows come home....Pesce and Dillon (Cotter too) have all brought a physicality/defensive aptitude that can't be quantified. Its an area-of-effect type ability.

I do think the impact of the #HITZ and #PHYSICALITY on our success brought by guys like Dillon and Cotter will end up vastly overrated at the end of this year when they were much less impactful additions than Keefe, Markstrom, Pesce, Kovy, Noesen, and the improvement/resurgance of Luke and Siegs

 

[billingtons ghost]

arrive at if we had the this quality of goaltending in 22-23 we would have been significantly better, possibly could’ve won a cup

Just proof that xG is derivative, reductionist garbage. This is the most utterly ridiculous crap ever. Save the year when we had a full defensive squad pushing Hamilton and Siegs away from facing top lines and the luxury of pushing Sevs, our erstwhile #1 D man to third pairing, we have been a goalie killing coach killing machine

That team last year would have just ruined Markstrom, out first elite goalie in 30 years. Heck, at the beginning of this season and even three weeks ago you were all ready to throw him under the bus. Allen is still under the bus.

There are so many areas of improvement it's nutty:
This team is blocking shots at critical times
Keefe has forwards filling lanes and using their sticks
Keefe has Jack thinking defense
Bratt's defense is improved
Kovacevic and Siegs have been solid
Dillon bails Dougie out
Pesce allows Luke to be Luke and has stretched his game

They actually look like they are playing a system well a large party of the time.

We are still a work in progress, as we spent the early party of the season unable to start games and giving up the first goal in loss lots of games. Jack's recent turnover spate has helped xGA go up for sure...

But the: cup if not for goaltending is really damning for xGA if that's the kind of analysis we could take away

 

[NjDevsRR]

xG gives you an insight into trends. Why are the playoff teams normally in the top 20 in xG? And why are the non playoff teams normally the worst in xG?

Theres a middle ground where you can use analytics and also common sense.

 

[Bleedred]

Markstrom was so good that he was solely responsible for setting the record for giving up 20 shots or less over multiple games, giving up the 3rd least shots against overall and 4th in goals against. It has nothing, nothing to do with the new coach, his systems nor the the new defenseman that implemented said systems.

I hope that dude is trolling, if not, what a tool.

Markstrom’s puck handling is probably good enough to allow several less shots per game due to disrupting the other team’s forecheck!

 

[AfroThunder396]

I think the additions of Pesce, Kovacevic, and Keefe are less important than the subtractions of Smith, Bahl, and Ruff. Removing negatives is often more important than adding positive.

It's called the Buffalo Theory. A herd of buffalo only moves as fast as its slowest member. Get rid of the slowest buffalo, the whole herd speeds up slightly. Identify the weakest link on the team and remove it, and the team gets stronger as a result.

We trimmed a lot of fat off this roster this offseason and have been relatively healthy this year (knock on wood). No more Brendan Smith, no more Chris Tierney, no more Laberge or Nosek or Foote or Marino (who was objectively having a terrible season last year but no one wanted to criticize him for it).

Dougie is healthy, Jack is healthy, Timo is healthy. The lines are allowed to stay together and develop chemistry in ways that they weren't last year.

That said, it's absolutely undeniable that we are getting saves this year that we weren't getting in previous years. No one with a single functioning brain cell can deny that. Last year all of our goalies combined for a SV% of .896%. Again, remove the negative and you're going to improve.

 

[Nocashstyle]

Maybe just all of the changes collectively helped improve the team?

 

[PKs Broken Stick]

wtf happened to my dark mode

 

[JK3]

IGNORE lmao what is this?

 

[Better Call Sal]

Maybe just all of the changes collectively helped improve the team?

A fair, sensible take.

 

[TheBeerNerd]

IGNORE lmao what is this?

Warns against your posting

 

[PKs Broken Stick]

The Markstrom situation is interesting. Personally, I don't think the trade was worth it, but Fitz definitely couldn't take any more risks with the goalie situation. Putting Markstrom acquisition as the reason they're succeeding is an odd take