Devils discussion (news, notes and speculation) - part II

[NJDfan86]

Have no interest in Brady Tkachuk - what the Devils need, ideally, is Ondrej Palat from 5 years ago and maybe an upgrade for the 3rd line somewhere.

The only trade for the Devils that realistically would make sense from a player/roster/cap perspective is Timo for Brady but Meier has an NMC - and I don’t see him waiving to go to Ottawa.

 

[theoptimist]

Palat from 5 years ago and McLeod if he wasn't a rapist

Thank you for acknowledging

 

[Hisch13r]

The only trade for the Devils that realistically would make sense from a player/roster/cap perspective is Timo for Brady but Meier has an NMC - and I don’t see him waiving to go to Ottawa.

The thing about that move is while yeah sure it's an upgrade I'd do. It's a pretty marginal upgrade. I was generally against the Brady stuff but with Kovacevic in the mix now and being so good combined with Nemec sucking I'm open to a Brady move now. Kind of feels like Nemec is burning a hole in our pocket. I'm more than open to the idea of swapping him for a comparable forward prospect rather than adding another star and instead go with a complimentary top 6er rather than breaking the bank on a star and also overloading on depth up front.

 

[My3Sons]

The thing about that move is while yeah sure it's an upgrade I'd do. It's a pretty marginal upgrade. I was generally against the Brady stuff but with Kovacevic in the mix now and being so good combined with Nemec sucking I'm open to a Brady move now. Kind of feels like Nemec is burning a hole in our pocket. I'm more than open to the idea of swapping him for a comparable forward prospect rather than adding another star and instead go with a complimentary top 6er rather than breaking the bank on a star and also overloading on depth up front.

If NJ sent out Palat and Hamilton in the offseason they’d probably extend Luke and Kovacevic for something like $13-14 mil combined. That’s most of what they’d save without Hamilton and Palat. I’m skeptical they have that much roster flexibility.

 

[Hisch13r]

If NJ sent out Palat and Hamilton in the offseason they’d probably extend Luke and Kovacevic for something like $13-14 mil combined. That’s most of what they’d save without Hamilton and Palat. I’m skeptical they have that much roster flexibility.

Running the numbers of Luke at 9 mil and Kovy at 4.5 mil we'd actually be in in a wayyyy better spot than I figured and I thought we'd be fine. The D would be set assuming Casey is an NHLer and I think he would be. Up front your top 6 would be full Bratt/Timo/Brady/Noesen as the wingers. Jack/Nico up the middle. Then the bottom 6 you have Haula/Mercer/Cotter. Gritsyuk coming in and even if that's not on an ELC and instead is like 2ish mil you should be fine. Even if the cap only jumps up to like 92.5 which is the low end that leaves you with 5-5.5 mil and the only holes being a 4C, bottom 6 wing and a backup goalie.

We'd have a decent amount of flexibility and we wouldn't even need as much as we have since there'd be basically nothing else big that needs to be fixed. Some people seem to be really over Haula so maybe you move out his 3.15 and replace him with a 3C at like 4ish mil or something. You're still in a great spot to be able to do that. I wanted Pius Suter in a bad way in the 2023 summer. His contract is up after this year. I'll probably be banging the drum hard for him again

 

[dgibb10]

If NJ sent out Palat and Hamilton in the offseason they’d probably extend Luke and Kovacevic for something like $13-14 mil combined. That’s most of what they’d save without Hamilton and Palat. I’m skeptical they have that much roster flexibility.

I don't think Kovy can justify getting towards 6 mill based on 1 year, regardless of how good it is.

 

[Emperoreddy]

 

[dgibb10]

If NJ sent out Palat and Hamilton in the offseason they’d probably extend Luke and Kovacevic for something like $13-14 mil combined. That’s most of what they’d save without Hamilton and Palat. I’m skeptical they have that much roster flexibility.

If NJD sends out hamilton and Palat and signs luke at 8.6 mill they will have 19 million dollars on a 92 mill cap. (with 3 scratches filled in already)

They will need to sign

4th line
Backup goalie
Kovacevic

with 19 million dollars.

There is no need to move Hamilton out. Even if you keep Hamilton AND want to keep Kovy you still have more than enough cap to do so. You'd have 11 mill (someone sent down) to sign

4th line (3-6 mill)
Backup goalie (1-3 mill)
Kovacevic (3-5 mill)

Unless someone wants to give us a quality offer for him AND Brady Tkachuk or some other star demands to come here, no need to move him out.

Something I may consider is something around Dougie and Spencer knight. Try and get that long term goalie, protect us from wasting it on an aging winger.

 

[jkrdevil]

Realistically the cap is going to be closer to $95-96 million if they get a new CBA done by the Cup Final (which is the stated goal).

Opening up a long term roster spot may be a bigger driver of a trade than cap.

 

[dgibb10]

This squad with a 94 mill cap and a dougie-knight swap

If you want to move palat, go ahead (especially if you aren't sold on grits), just don't spend it on anything stupid (do not bring in another palat) Nothing longer than 2 years if it's above 5 mill

I think I'd hope for a giroux or marchand on a 1-2 year deal

 

[jkrdevil]

Penning in Gritsyuk in the top six next year is a mistake.

Also, Bobrovsky’s contract is up after next season and Knight is still and RFA. Why would Florida trade him?

 

[MB3]

If Cozens was on a reasonable contract like maybe you take a flyer on him but the guy has 5 more years after this at 7.1 mil. HELL NOOOOOOOO

The fact that you compared him to Mercer makes me wonder if you thought I said Nick Cousins and not Dylan Cozens.

He is an actual NHL center. He drives play. He’s solid defensively. He’s got a 30-goal season under his belt (and unlike Mercer’s, it didn’t come solely and directly from Jack Hughes and Nico Hischier passes).

7.2m for a 23 year old 30-goal center is the very definition of a “reasonable” contract. It’s probably quite a bit better.

 

[dgibb10]

Penning in Gritsyuk in the top six next year is a mistake.

Also, Bobrovsky’s contract is up after next season and Knight is still and RFA. Why would Florida trade him?

You can move up Mercer if you want, or slot haula there, or cotter, or keep palat there, or buy a rental at the deadline. But, if you have Grits in the lineup, where else are you slotting him but the top 6.

Certainly not line 4.

Maybe florida wants to keep knight, I'd also take futures and flip em elsewhere tbh.

But I see them as one of a few feasible spots.

-They have a hole at RD this offseason, and a gaping one if ekblad leaves.
-They currently don't really have a stud PP dman rn
-Competing now
-A place dougie would almost certainly waive for

Other teams I think would be interested:

-Dallas
-Philly (they are in DESPERATE need of help for that power play)
-Detroit
-Weirdly enough, Carolina with Burns I'm assuming retiring
-LAK if Doughty hangs it up with injury issues
-Minnesota (a PP with Kaprizov on it should cook a lot better, I don't think faber is a PP1 QB)
-MAYBE SJS if they try and move forward early

 

[jkrdevil]

But Florida is in the same situation as we will be…have an aging goaltender and need a longer term solution. If they were willing to flip Knight then that means they don’t believe him as a long term solution. Which means he isn’t a guy we should be trying to acquire.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

The fact that you compared him to Mercer makes me wonder if you thought I said Nick Cousins and not Dylan Cozens.

He is an actual NHL center. He drives play. He’s solid defensively. He’s got a 30-goal season under his belt (and unlike Mercer’s, it didn’t come solely and directly from Jack Hughes and Nico Hischier passes).

7.2m for a 23 year old 30-goal center is the very definition of a “reasonable” contract. It’s probably quite a bit better.

This year he has fewer points than Mercer and we have 2 other centers that make more than that.

 

[Hisch13r]

The fact that you compared him to Mercer makes me wonder if you thought I said Nick Cousins and not Dylan Cozens.

He is an actual NHL center. He drives play. He’s solid defensively. He’s got a 30-goal season under his belt (and unlike Mercer’s, it didn’t come solely and directly from Jack Hughes and Nico Hischier passes).

7.2m for a 23 year old 30-goal center is the very definition of a “reasonable” contract. It’s probably quite a bit better.

Holy f*** are you ever overrating Cozens. Cozens is on pace for 17 goals 37 pts. Mercer is on pace for 15 goals 36 pts. Cozens is not solid defensively. He's bad defensively. Mercer is solid defensively. Cozens hit 30 goals because he had a ton of shooting luck. He shot nearly 15% that year. He's never even eclipsed 9% in any other year. He's an ~8% shooter excluding that one season.

Since coming into the league at 5v5 Mercer has 105 pts. Cozens has 100. Mercer has 53 goals. Cozens has 45. Mercer has 92 primary pts. Cozens has 80. Mercer has a 1.67 P/60. Cozens has a 1.8. Mercer has a 0.84 G/60. Cozens has a 0.81. Mercer has a 1.46 P1/60. Cozens has a 1.44.

Please tell me again how these players are not VERY comparable and over 7 mil is "reasonable" for Cozens.

 

[MB3]

This year he has fewer points than Mercer and we have 2 other centers that make more than that.

If you think points tell the whole story I don’t feel the need to engage in debate with you

 

[dgibb10]

But Florida is in the same situation as we will be…have an aging goaltender and need a longer term solution. If they were willing to flip Knight then that means they don’t believe him as a long term solution. Which means he isn’t a guy we should be trying to acquire.

Again, happy to take other assets or to another team.

I just like knight and also the fact imo the higher cap

a) lowers his value to make him easier to acquire
b) ensures we don't make a dumb move in UFA with all that extra money saved from dougie

Other goalie options/targets

Eg try and pry Wallstedt out if they're sold on Gustafsson (who was one of my favourite targets last year btw)
Try and grab one of Cossa or Augistine from Det.

Or just grab futures to use down the line when needed

 

[MB3]

Holy f*** are you ever overrating Cozens. Cozens is on pace for 17 goals 37 pts. Mercer is on pace for 15 goals 36 pts. Cozens is not solid defensively. He's bad defensively. Mercer is solid defensively. Cozens hit 30 goals because he had a ton of shooting luck. He shot nearly 15% that year. He's never even eclipsed 9% in any other year. He's an ~8% shooter excluding that one season.

Since coming into the league at 5v5 Mercer has 105 pts. Cozens has 100. Mercer has 53 goals. Cozens has 45. Mercer has 92 primary pts. Cozens has 80. Mercer has a 1.67 P/60. Cozens has a 1.8. Mercer has a 0.84 G/60. Cozens has a 0.81. Mercer has a 1.46 P1/60. Cozens has a 1.44.

Please tell me again how these players are not VERY comparable and over 7 mil is "reasonable" for Cozens.

Every single one of your arguments is points related. Nearly all of Mercer’s points have come when he was stapled to Hischier or Hughes. Kuokkonen put up nearly an identical P/60 when playing with Nico, do you think he’s a comparable player to Mercer?

Cozens is a center, which is the biggest organizational need. He’s a play driver, which the devils don’t have outside of 86, 63 and 13. He’s playing on a dogshit hockey team with Peterka and Quinn, I could not give a literal f*** what his point production is.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

If you think points tell the whole story I don’t feel the need to engage in debate with you

They don’t. Cozens makes too much and is also poor defensively.

 

[NJDfan86]

View attachment 944896
This squad with a 94 mill cap and a dougie-knight swap

If you want to move palat, go ahead (especially if you aren't sold on grits), just don't spend it on anything stupid (do not bring in another palat) Nothing longer than 2 years if it's above 5 mill

I think I'd hope for a giroux or marchand on a 1-2 year deal

FL is trading 1 year of Knight at 4.5 (RFA) for 3 of Dougie at 9?!? I hope you are factoring in significant retention if you think that is an actual trade.

 

[My3Sons]

Holy f*** are you ever overrating Cozens. Cozens is on pace for 17 goals 37 pts. Mercer is on pace for 15 goals 36 pts. Cozens is not solid defensively. He's bad defensively. Mercer is solid defensively. Cozens hit 30 goals because he had a ton of shooting luck. He shot nearly 15% that year. He's never even eclipsed 9% in any other year. He's an ~8% shooter excluding that one season.

Since coming into the league at 5v5 Mercer has 105 pts. Cozens has 100. Mercer has 53 goals. Cozens has 45. Mercer has 92 primary pts. Cozens has 80. Mercer has a 1.67 P/60. Cozens has a 1.8. Mercer has a 0.84 G/60. Cozens has a 0.81. Mercer has a 1.46 P1/60. Cozens has a 1.44.

Please tell me again how these players are not VERY comparable and over 7 mil is "reasonable" for Cozens.

You say that but it won’t be long before third line centers are making $7.25 mil per for 7 years

 

[Hisch13r]

You say that but it won’t be long before third line centers are making $7.25 mil per for 7 years

It won't be long before 3rd line centers are making like 12 mil

 

[My3Sons]

It won't be long before 3rd line centers are making like 12 mil

Probably by the start of the 2027 season.

 

[dgibb10]

FL is trading 1 year of Knight at 4.5 (RFA) for 3 of Dougie at 9?!? I hope you are factoring in significant retention if you think that is an actual trade.

I just watched a team pay for Jacob trouba at 8 mill, at this point I refuse to believe Dougie Hamilton will require meaningful retention, ESPECIALLY with a cap jump coming.

And since his signing bonus is due the day his NMC goes away, he costs just 14.65 (4.88 a year) mill in real money over the final 3 years for an acquiring team.