Devils discussion (news, notes and speculation) - offseason edition

[tailfins]

Some 3C options you could move Mercer alone or in a package for (or get a package for):

Morgan Geekie
Ryan McLeod
Peyton Krebs
Cole Sillinger
Anton Lundell
Joel Eriksson-Ek
Shane Pinto
Ridley Greid
Barrett Hayton
Connor McMichael
Gabriel Vilardi

Pretty wide range in skill and archetypes there but all are RFAs or have contracts; didn’t include any UFAs or rentals

I like most of these, but the only guy I think is actually available is Krebs. And there's no world in which I'd move Mercer for Krebs.

But, maybe you could do Haula for Krebs? I think that's a downgrade, but it does save the Devils $1.7 in cap and the Devils do get younger. IMO, the Devils would need to find another third liner if they did that, though.

 

[JK3]

It's okay, Tommy Fitz has the team in such a great spot that he thought handing out another NMC and material $$$ to non puck mover RD Kovacevic was a great idea! That totally made sense while already having numerous anchor contracts that are impossible or difficult to move due to handing out NMCs like it's trick-or-treating on Halloween.....and while having blatantly obvious more pressing needs on the roster. Nevermind that Kovacevic def would have been worth a 1st+ or solid forward prospect at the deadline instead of paying him that much w/ clause....which then could have been leveraged to add a C, move cap combo, whatever.

I don't think Luke should get above $8. And yea, due to cap/contract constraints and more pressing needs, I think they should roll with Daws. No, that isn't ideal, but realistically they can't afford another $2m on top for a backup and competently address other parts of the roster. Would be nice to still have Schmid tbh and hope 1 of the 2 works out...

On Palat, I'm on record saying he was 100% gonna be gone this offseason. However, I thought it was a 10 team NO TRADE list this summer....not a 10 team approved list. Basically if Palat wants to stay, all he has to do is jot down 10 contenders and the Devs are f'd. Hilarious Palat got a 10 team list....while Nico got the more traditional less restrictive 10 team no trade. Same with Jack when his flips.

Yeah man it's a mess. I don't know how common those NMC and No trades are on other teams though. Is it like this throughout the league or is Fitz a dummy. Of course it's another sweetener for these guys to come here but we're talking about Mr. Big Game Hunter.

 

[woody footbreaker]

Signing Bennett after signing Palat would be the equivalent of having stage 4 lung cancer, surviving somehow and then smoking a pack a day of cigarettes.

so after some ridiculous statemehts about stephenson, bennett is next on the list ... just because some here repeat that stuff over and over again, it doesnt makes it more true. amazing how many posters here know better then the experts.

afp recently had bennett getting 6 x 6.6m which probably comes with expectations of him signing in florida (taxes). if he makes it to FA someone will pay him more and for 8m i think fitz will try, of course only if we can free up cap space from dougie and palat

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

so after some ridiculous statemehts about stephenson, bennett is next on the list ... just because some here repeat that stuff over and over again, it doesnt makes it more true. amazing how many posters here know better then the experts.

afp recently had bennett getting 6 x 6.6m which probably comes with expectations of him signing in florida (taxes). if he makes it to FA someone will pay him more and for 8m i think fitz will try, of course only if we can free up cap space from dougie and palat

Sam Bennett is a good player, I think he's better in Florida than he would do elsewhere because their system is tailored made for a guy like him, the Devils don't need another Palat on their books which is what Bennett would be outside of Florida regardless of where he signs. You're paying for a guy's past not his future. But that's the nature of free agency. I much rather Fitz sign depth in UFA and scour the trade markets for the bigger pieces. Hell, I'd prefer an offer sheet to someone like Knies (Toronto would accept any contract in an offer sheet that Matt Knies signs) but the idea still stands. UFA deals almost never work out especially to guys like Bennett

 

[Edmonton East]

We need a Dougie Alert version of the Bleed Alert lol.

Yeah man it's a mess. I don't know how common those NMC and No trades are on other teams though. Is it like this throughout the league or is Fitz a dummy, I'm leaning towards the latter.

I'd say pretty uncommon for players like Kovacevic, Palat, and Haula. Certainly incredibly rare for a GM to hand out MULTIPLE NMCs/10 team list clauses to depth players. Tom Fitzgerald is a certified moron. He creates his own problems constantly and is a purely reactionary (late) GM.

So let's say Hamilton and Palat wanna stay in NJ. Agent sends over list: DAL, EDM, NYR, VGK, TBL, FLA, TOR, CAR, WSH, STL/COL/whoever. Good luck!

Then some folks here will say no biggie, just retain a little. Uh, again, THE CAP...which apparently doesn't exist since I still see folks regularly throwing around going after Ehlers, Bennett, etc.

 

[dgibb10]

We need a Dougie Alert version of the Bleed Alert lol.

Yeah man it's a mess. I don't know how common those NMC and No trades are on other teams though. Is it like this throughout the league or is Fitz a dummy. Of course it's another sweetener for these guys to come here but we're talking about Mr. Big Game Hunter.

NMCs are very common in today's day and age.

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

I'd say pretty uncommon for players like Kovacevic, Palat, and Haula. Certainly incredibly rare for a GM to hand out MULTIPLE NMCs/10 team list clauses to depth players. Tom Fitzgerald is a certified moron. He creates his own problems constantly and is a purely reactionary (late) GM.

So let's say Hamilton and Palat wanna stay in NJ. Agent sends over list: DAL, EDM, NYR, VGK, TBL, FLA, TOR, CAR, WSH, STL/COL/whoever. Good luck!

Then some folks here will say no biggie, just retain a little. Uh, again, THE CAP...which apparently doesn't exist since I still see folks regularly throwing around going after Ehlers, Bennett, etc.

Dallas actually makes the most sense in the world for Douglas, but I get your overall point

 

[dgibb10]

Of the 70 guys (who were UFA eligible) who signed contracts starting in 24-25 above 2 mill AAV, just 13 did not have NTCs.

Of the 50 guys who signed for at least 3 years and above the fully buriable contract limit (eg making more than Macdermid), just 6 did not get trade protections.

Neidereiter (WPG), Trenin (MIN), Novak (NSH), Carrier (NSH) , Lybushkin (DAL), Amadio (OTT)

 

[Monsieur Verdoux]

Yes, hence why they would be undervalued assets that Keefe can utilize better, assuming he wants them.

This is how you need to build a bottom 6. Find guys who are undervalued that you can use better. Not chasing after the highs.

I agree with your logic, but I don't think Järnkrok and Kämpf are the guys the Devils should be targeting unless they want to be the next Maple Leafs.

Järnkrok is a classic example of a playoff choker. In the regular season his PPG is 0.43 but in the playoffs 0.22, and it's not a small sample size considering he has played in over 100 playoff games.

Kämpf's stats aren't good either, and he his contract is too expensive ($2.4M) for what he brings.

 

[Devils731]

Of the 70 guys (who were UFA eligible) who signed contracts starting in 24-25 above 2 mill AAV, just 13 did not have NTCs.

In a cap world, it’s the tiebreaker that you give so that you don’t have to increase the dollars.

Then you hope it doesn’t hamper you too much in the future. The player can at least be talked to and negotiated with in the future about their NTC but the Dollars are set in stone.

 

[dgibb10]

I agree with your logic, but I don't think Järnkrok and Kämpf are the guys the Devils should be targeting unless they want to be the next Maple Leafs.

Järnkrok is a classic example of a playoff choker. In the regular season his PPG is 0.43 but in the playoffs 0.22, and it's not a small sample size considering he has played in over 100 playoff games.

Kämpf's stats aren't good either, and he his contract is too expensive ($2.4M) for what he brings.

2.4 for a 4C is really not that bad.

Unless you want an RFA or ELC to be your 4C (which generally you don't because that's a role best filled by veterans who know how to defend and PK and win faceoffs), its gonna cost you in today's era

 

[dgibb10]

In a cap world, it’s the tiebreaker that you give so that you don’t have to increase the dollars.

Then you hope it doesn’t hamper you too much in the future. The player can at least be talked to and negotiated with in the future about their NTC but the Dollars are set in stone.

At this point it's just the standard for any meaningful contract.

Guys with multiple teams looking for their services are going to choose based on which places they want to play, and they aren't gonna want to immeditaley by shipped out to god knows where if they have a bad year or get hurt or even have TOO good of a year where they have value.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

YOu don't hold onto Dougie because of Kovacevic's injury. Go find another 3rd pairing RD if Kovy is gonna miss significant time.

You have Pesce, you have Nemec, you have Casey, etc. Dougie needs to be gone.

 

[Monsieur Verdoux]

2.4 for a 4C is really not that bad.

Unless you want an RFA or ELC to be your 4C (which generally you don't because that's a role best filled by veterans who know how to defend and PK and win faceoffs), its gonna cost you in today's era

He probably isn't any better than Nosek who is playing in the conference finals on a minimum contract. Or Jänmark ($1.35M). Or Kastelic ($0.835M), Carrick ($1M), or Sundqvist ($1.5M).

The Devils should find a cheap 4C unless that player is an elite 4C. Kämpf really isn't that.

 

[dgibb10]

He probably isn't any better than Nosek who is playing in the conference finals on a minimum contract. Or Jänmark ($1.35M). Or Kastelic ($0.835M), Carrick ($1M), or Sundqvist ($1.5M).

The Devils should find a cheap 4C unless that player is an elite 4C. Kämpf really isn't that.

Would you be okay if I suggested Tomas Nosek as our 4C for next year?

 

[Devils Trap]

YOu don't hold onto Dougie because of Kovacevic's injury. Go find another 3rd pairing RD if Kovy is gonna miss significant time.

You have Pesce, you have Nemec, you have Casey, etc. Dougie needs to be gone.

100%, get him gone regardless - Kovy is out till Decemeber not the entire year

 

[Monsieur Verdoux]

Would you be okay if I suggested Tomas Nosek as our 4C for next year?

I wouldn't be a fan. But my point was that Kämpf probably wouldn't be any better and his AAV is three times bigger than Nosek's.

If the Devils pay that much for a 3C, I'd rather pay the money for someone like Faksa.

 

[dgibb10]

I wouldn't be a fan. But my point was that Kämpf probably wouldn't be any better and his AAV is three times bigger than Nosek's.

If the Devils pay that much for a 3C, I'd rather pay the money for someone like Faksa.

Faksa I don't view as meaningfully different to Kampf tbh. If you prefer him that much, sure go ahead , but I also like Jarnkrok and both of them have familiarity with Keefe's system.

Kampf has generally handled a larger role than Nosek throughout their careers.

 

[Edmonton East]

I'd say pretty uncommon for players like Kovacevic, Palat, and Haula. Certainly incredibly rare for a GM to hand out MULTIPLE NMCs/10 team list clauses to depth players. Tom Fitzgerald is a certified moron. He creates his own problems constantly and is a purely reactionary (late) GM.

So let's say Hamilton and Palat wanna stay in NJ. Agent sends over list: DAL, EDM, NYR, VGK, TBL, FLA, TOR, CAR, WSH, STL/COL/whoever. Good luck!

Then some folks here will say no biggie, just retain a little. Uh, again, THE CAP...which apparently doesn't exist since I still see folks regularly throwing around going after Ehlers, Bennett, etc.

Quoting myself...can anyone tell me what the Devs do in this very plausible scenario to seriously contend next season:

Cap space less Luke...let's call it $5 million or so. Holes (at a minimum): strong 3C, versatile top 9 W, backup goalie

Hamilton and Palat 10 team permission slip: DAL, EDM, NYR, VGK, TBL, FLA, TOR, CAR, WSH, STL/COL/whoever. So you can't move them.

Say Kovacevic is healthy early in the season, which I doubt, then you have Hamilton, Pesce, Kovy at RD and all have NMCs or a prohibitive clause. So I guess Nemec and Casey need to be traded. Conversely, if Kovy misses first 3 months, what happens when he returns? Hell, what happens if by some miracle you move Hamilton and don't get completely screwed, but Kovy is out months....you roll with Nemec, Pesce, Casey at RD and pray I guess.

My view, if they can't move Hamilton and Palat because of their 10 team trade lists, Fitz only has 2 options.

1) Deal Nemec and maybe even Casey for a Center / top 9 W....but Fitz can only target guys that can be retained OR are on excellent contracts already. So get ready to be bent over. Can move Mercer as well, but that creates another top 9 hole obviously. Even then you have to hope Hamilton stays healthy and Kovy quickly returns to 2024 from with Siegs.

2) Re-sign Glass and pretty much run it back. Pray Nico and Jack stay healthy AND Jack builds off his 2022 season again / rounds out C game. Grits is immediately a solid top 6 W despite not progressing since his impressive breakout 3 years ago. Also act shocked when Nemec throws a bitch fit because he has no viable path to full playing time aside from injury for 2 more years.

Not exactly a great situation, huh. Yikes. Yet for whatever reason people haven't even ordered their pitchforks for Tommy Fitz yet, when they should already have them sharpened and be marching at this point. Just pathetic roster / timing management and relative player valuation.

 

[woody footbreaker]

Sam Bennett is a good player, I think he's better in Florida than he would do elsewhere because their system is tailored made for a guy like him, the Devils don't need another Palat on their books which is what Bennett would be outside of Florida regardless of where he signs. You're paying for a guy's past not his future. But that's the nature of free agency. I much rather Fitz sign depth in UFA and scour the trade markets for the bigger pieces. Hell, I'd prefer an offer sheet to someone like Knies (Toronto would accept any contract in an offer sheet that Matt Knies signs) but the idea still stands. UFA deals almost never work out especially to guys like Bennett

i am sorry but using palat and bennett in the same sentence ... outside of florida, thats a very subjective statement. i think he is the perfect fit to play with jack and can play c. he would fit with nico as well. it would make us much more flexible and fill out our top6. i am not buying the narrative created here that jack and timo arent working together, bennett with both of them would be a heck of line, with bratt nico on top of it. well, thats subjectiv on my part.
point is, if top players getting 12 -15m, bennett is worth 8m at least and i rather bet on his next 4 years then any 2 yrs of guys over age 32 suggested here. how many talented c below age 30 are available each year? and if you trade for a guys like this, the alternative cost of overpaying him a mil or so are the aquisition costs of the trade which could be used somewhere else instead

 

[Better Call Sal]

I wouldn’t be surprised if we sign Dumolin and Dillon doesn’t play this year. That injury looked so scary

I agree. He was very optimistic about everything in his exit interview, but again, who knows what will really transpire once he starts to rehab and progress.

 

[bossram]

2.4 for a 4C is really not that bad.

Unless you want an RFA or ELC to be your 4C (which generally you don't because that's a role best filled by veterans who know how to defend and PK and win faceoffs), its gonna cost you in today's era

Yeah. Kampf is what he is and I don't think he's that overpaid. He's there to win DZ draws and PK and that's pretty much it. If you deploy him with those expectations, then he's a perfectly find 4C option. If you're expecting more, well, than you're guaranteed disappointment.

 

[bossram]

It's interesting that I was always against the Palat deal, thought it was bad at the time of the signing, and caught a ton of flak for it. Now that's the consensus opinion.

I also was talking about exploring how to move Dougie's contract like a year and a half ago, to many people's chagrin. Now again, it seems that is a consensus position here.

So I'll say this: Don't sign Bennett.

 

[My3Sons]

What is Luke going to get, 8-8.5? 12 mil with his extension and a decent 3C and 4RW is going to be tight. Fourth line guy will be cheap buy yeah that 3C. This doesn't account for the goalie situation, are we running with Markstrom and Daws? Daws is cheap.

Man are they really f***ed unless they move out somebody. I think Palat needs to go first. Not sure if they want to move Haula, he's pretty versatile. He did look much better when he came back at the end of the season. If they move out Dougie they probably should grab a stopgap RD. That will eat into the savings, they might have to retain to dump him too. Good luck Tommy!

If Luke signs a long term deal I expect it to be closer to $10 mil per. I still think his agent (isn’t that the dad?) will push for five years on an extension to match Jack. NJ will want a longer term of course. Maybe they settle on six years and can get something done around $8.5 at that term?

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

The Devils will be one of the better teams in the East if they run it back mostly the same as last year. They won’t be doing that, but it’s true. Luke being what he was in the first half and Nemec being what he was in the playoffs would be about as big of a deal as any acquisition Fitz will make.

Fitz will make moves, but I think some of you are really missing just how much of the core is already in the building.