Devils 2021-22 team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - part XII

[RNCDevil]

Anyone know when the season starts? I am excited to see if Wood can score 17 goals. Did we sign Parise?

 

[devilsblood]

Anyone know when the season starts? I am excited to see if Wood can score 17 goals. Did we sign Parise?

We're probably going to cancel the season. We had a guy with a runny nose. Had to shut it down.

 

[Guttersniped]

So all these guys get A grades?

I put up a card for all the guys I mentioned in September and they all are doing well to differing degrees. Some are doing a lot better than others obviously but if you look at their market value everyone is at least getting more than their money worth. That’s very far from an exact measurement but this scoring doesn’t reward defensive play unless you are really bringing it. Check out Dom’s Selke rankings, Bonino is on it.

Identifying useful guys is not rocket science. You also have to get them signed, there aren’t actually a lot of them (teams like the Pens, Bruins, Bolts, etc grow their own). As I said in my original post (and other times) most 4th liners are just bad at hockey. Some these guys aren’t even 4th liners, they’re just being paid like it and therefore are great value contracts.

They’re also very good defensively in ways that you can’t expect young players called up from the AHL to be. And I would describe Vesey more as a smart but flawed scoring forward who is also an excellent PKer. That’s why we got him on a PTO.

Our defensive lapse are built into this line-up, if you go young and replace the guys we lost last year with Tatar, PTOs and prospects/young players than this is what you get. And Fitz is ok with that (I guess).

Good teams get good defensive play from forwards (not from from all of them necessarily). Good teams get good offensive production from defensemen (not from all of them obviously). Without those things you are a bad team.

Defensive forwards are actually the easiest thing to add when you’re team building, if you’re smart about it, because you pay for offensive production.

 

[devilsblood]

I put up a card for all the guys I mentioned in September and they all are doing well to differing degrees. Some are doing a lot better than others obviously but if you look at their market value everyone is at least getting more than their money worth. That’s very far from an exact measurement but this scoring doesn’t reward defensive play unless you are really bringing it. Check out Dom’s Selke rankings, Bonino is on it.

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Identifying useful guys is not rocket science. You also have to get them signed, there aren’t actually a lot of them (teams like the Pens, Bruins, Bolts, etc grow their own). As I said in my original post (and other times) most 4th liners are just bad at hockey. Some these guys aren’t even 4th liners, they’re just being paid like it and therefore are great value contracts.

They’re also very good defensively in ways that you can’t expect young players called up from the AHL to be. And I would describe Vesey more as a smart but flawed scoring forward who is also an excellent PKer. That’s why we got him on a PTO.

Our defensive lapse are built into this line-up, if you go young and replace the guys we lost last year with Tatar, PTOs and prospects/young players than this is what you get. And Fitz is ok with that (I guess).

Good teams get good defensive play from forwards (not from from all of them necessarily). Good teams get good offensive production from defensemen (not from all of them obviously). Without those things you are a bad team.

Defensive forwards are actually the easiest thing to add when you’re team building, if you’re smart about it, because you pay for offensive production.

I have no idea how those guys derive their defensive scores.

But the metrics I see say Vesey and Bastian have been very good defensively. McLeod's #'s have been good since Bastian came aboard.

And McLeod's #'s are skewed because he literally takes more defensive draws that anyone in the league this side of Horvat, and unlike Horvat, he FOGO's.

Bottom line for me is, I'm fine with our bottom line.

 

[billingtons ghost]

You overplay these issues.

It's as if outside of NJ, there are no missed assignments. Teams never turn the puck over. Players never run into their own goalie.

Jack Hughes just had a goal deflect in off his skate. That has probably happened a couple dozen times around the league this season.

Our goalie problems are pretty clear, once Bernier's hip went south we've been playing guys who should not be in the NHL.

So you think Blackwood shouldn't be in the NHL?

I think you de-emphasize the cost of Ty Smith decisions. I think you underestimate the impact of repeatedly facing 2-on-0s on goalies. We disect deflections or a gaffe where he doesn't completely shut off a bad angle goal, but everyone seems to forget the backhand no-look passes at the blueline resulting in 2-on-0s that he's actually stopped this year. And the cross-ice tap ins. For a period, I cannot remember another team giving the puck over at their own and opponents bluelines in such profusion - and it ended up so bad at times that it made Hamilton (-14) and Graves look terrible because they had to back soooo far off guys coming in with speed.

Yeah, these things happen all around the league, but being a goalie is all about reading and reacting, and if what you are seeing in front of you doesn't make sense (Boqvist forcing a guy wide instead of playing the pass on a 2-on-1) you're apt to misread the play.

I mean, should we tally up the bad decisions made on every goal and SV?

 

[Guttersniped]

Kuokkanen with negative market value lol. Not sure what that even means

This is results oriented. He’s involved with more bad things happening than good.

 

[devilsblood]

So you think Blackwood shouldn't be in the NHL?

I think you de-emphasize the cost of Ty Smith decisions. I think you underestimate the impact of repeatedly facing 2-on-0s on goalies. We disect deflections or a gaffe where he doesn't completely shut off a bad angle goal, but everyone seems to forget the backhand no-look passes at the blueline resulting in 2-on-0s that he's actually stopped this year. And the cross-ice tap ins. For a period, I cannot remember another team giving the puck over at their own and opponents bluelines in such profusion - and it ended up so bad at times that it made Hamilton (-14) and Graves look terrible because they had to back soooo far off guys coming in with speed.

Yeah, these things happen all around the league, but being a goalie is all about reading and reacting, and if what you are seeing in front of you doesn't make sense (Boqvist forcing a guy wide instead of playing the pass on a 2-on-1) you're apt to misread the play.

I mean, should we tally up the bad decisions made on every goal and SV?

Blackwood's an NHL goalie, but he's also been battling all sorts of stuff including heel issues which he came into the season with (so I don't want to hear that the fwd's are to blame for this), yet he's being asked to play every game. Why? Because the 1b is out with hip surgery and the other 4 goalies we've played this season don't belong in the league (for some of them I'll add "yet").

So yeah we have limited our non NHL goalies to a mere 25% of the season thus far, but we do that at the expense of Blackwood who is battling injuries as well as confidence issues.

That's a far bigger issue then Boq playing the shooter on a 2-1.

 

[Guttersniped]

I have no idea how those guys derive their defensive scores.

But the metrics I see say Vesey and Bastian have been very good defensively. McLeod's #'s have been good since Bastian came aboard.

And McLeod's #'s are skewed because he literally takes more defensive draws that anyone in the league this side of Horvat, and unlike Horvat, he FOGO's.

Bottom line for me is, I'm fine with our bottom line.

McLeod’s not very good right now and we got Bastian because he got waived.

And that’s, you know, two guys, so I don’t how we couldn’t have used another better defensive forward in mix here. Some of those guys are very capable of playing higher, particularly Rodrigues obviously.

Fitz went with Let The Kid’s Play 2.0 and if you agree with that philosophy then that’s fine. If you’re someone who has complained that we need better players on this team, then these type of players qualify as better players too. (And guys on one year deals are very flippable at the trade deadline.)

 

[Mgd31]

I really can't see us falling off and cratering completely. The main reason our record is this bad is goaltending. I don't want to say "it can't get worse" because things can always get worse but realistically I doubt the goaltending will be much worse if it even ends up being worse and the skaters have looked pretty alright recently.

We’d be at actual .500 with average goaltending

 

[devilsblood]

There was definitely a stretch where our PP was giving up a ridiculous # of chances against. And that led to a bunch of shorties against. But we are talking a grand total of 5 or 6 goals.

5v5 I haven't really seen this horrible play leading to a ton of chances against. Blackwood giving the puck away clean to the opposition, or letting bad angle shots squeeze through his elbow? Those certainly stand out.

 

[devilsblood]

McLeod’s not very good right now and we got Bastian because he got waived.

And that’s, you know, two guys, so I don’t how we couldn’t have used another better defensive forward in mix here. Some of those guys are very capable of playing higher, particularly Rodrigues obviously.

Fitz went with Let The Kid’s Play 2.0 and if you agree with that philosophy then that’s fine. If you’re someone who has complained that we need better players on this team, then these type of players qualify as better players too. (And guys on one year deals are very flippable at the trade deadline.)

I do agree with that philosophy, and no I'm not complaining we need better players. I'll drive people even more crazy and say I'm in on Let the Kid's Play 3.0. Adding a guy like Rodrigues? Something tells me he doesn't put up the same #'s on McLeod's wing with a 30% 0-zone faceoff share as he does on Crosby's wing with a 60% o-zone faceoff share.

And McLeod has been good over the last 20 games. Struggled early. Bastian coming back aboard has certainly helped.

 

[Emperoreddy]

I know it's easier to just say it's all the goalies fault and changing them would instantly fix things, but a big part of the issue is absolutely this team plays poor D.

Idk what percentage is the forwards just being bad at it and how much is Ruff's defensive system being really confounding, but it's pretty evident in a lot of games this year how much guys being completely in the wrong spot in the defensive zone has lead to goals against.

 

[Saugus]

Kuokkanen with negative market value lol. Not sure what that even means

As far as I can tell, it means he should be paying the Devils to play for them.

 

[devilsblood]

I know it's easier to just say it's all the goalies fault and changing them would instantly fix things, but a big part of the issue is absolutely this team plays poor D.

Idk what percentage is the forwards just being bad at it and how much is Ruff's defensive system being really confounding, but it's pretty evident in a lot of games this year how much guys being completely in the wrong spot in the defensive zone has lead to goals against.

I certainly don't want to say every goal is the fault of the goalies.

The Devils absolutely make mistakes. But all teams do. All teams give up odd mans. All teams make bad passes in their own zone. The question is do we do it more than average? I do think our PP was doing that for a stretch. That was painfully obvious. But 5v5? Like I said, Blackwood passing right to an opposing player all alone leading to a goal against, that was painfully obvious. The bad angle under the elbow goal? Painfully obvious. But I think we play 5v5 pretty even, we give up chances, we generate chances of our own.

 

[NJDevs26]

I don't think the D 'as a whole' is bad...Ty Smith has been bad, Severson's been his usual mercurial self (right now he's on a good streak), Subban gives up some chances because he can't move and the PP gives up extra chances than they should but it isn't exactly a shooting gallery out there in general - the Devils are actually in the top half of the league in shots per game allowed. Seattle - which gets cited as the reason for Grubauer's struggles this season compared to last, just because they have the expansion tag - has actually allowed the third least amount of shots in the league.

Sometimes goalies are actually just bad too.

 

[Devils731]

I would be interested in the average distance away devils defenders are compared to opponent shooters.

My gut says the Devils give up more shots to shooters not under pressure than average.

The new tracking system that’s been incoming for years will allow teams to see that.

 

[devilsblood]

I don't think the D 'as a whole' is bad...Ty Smith has been bad, Severson's been his usual mercurial self (right now he's on a good streak), Subban gives up some chances because he can't move and the PP gives up extra chances than they should but it isn't exactly a shooting gallery out there in general - the Devils are actually in the top half of the league in shots per game allowed. Seattle - which gets cited as the reason for Grubauer's struggles this season compared to last, just because they have the expansion tag - has actually allowed the third least amount of shots in the league.

Sometimes goalies are actually just bad too.

We don't give up a ton of shots, our shots against are from a further distance then average, and our goals against are from further distance then average.

As it turns out we came into the season with zero healthy NHL goalies. That's a huge issue. It's not the only issue, but it's definitely a big one.

 

[GameSeven]

So all these guys get A grades?

Another A grade I see. Dude we are good.

Are you referring to The Athletic logo?

Edit: ok, sarcasm meter adjusted. It was the second post that made me wonder, lol

 

[devilsblood]

Are you referring to The Athletic logo?

 

[Maine Fan]

The Devils have one of the most expensive Ds that collectively has played poorly for the experience they have.

Goaltending is part of the D. Devils have had a mess at goalie tandems for the past few years.

Now Blackwood tests positive with COVID. Did he get the vaccines? If no, he should be dumped, trade for whatever you can get. It will just be another excuse why the Devils can't make it into the playoffs.

 

[Blender]

Highway robbery on that trade it looks like. He's been a rock.

Here’s our guys (so yeah, smart depth pieces are a good idea and a pretty standard good GM move).

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Kuok was a mess but he has been quite good on PK lately, so that’s a plus. He’s defense has not been a strong as I had predicted tho lol.

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Bastian was quite the waivers pickup.

 

[devilsblood]

The Devils have one of the most expensive Ds that collectively has played poorly for the experience they have.

Goaltending is part of the D. Devils have had a mess at goalie tandems for the past few years.

Now Blackwood tests positive with COVID. Did he get the vaccines? If no, he should be dumped, trade for whatever you can get. It will just be another excuse why the Devils can't make it into the playoffs.

Funny story....

 

[billingtons ghost]

I certainly don't want to say every goal is the fault of the goalies.

The Devils absolutely make mistakes. But all teams do. All teams give up odd mans. All teams make bad passes in their own zone. The question is do we do it more than average? I do think our PP was doing that for a stretch. That was painfully obvious. But 5v5? Like I said, Blackwood passing right to an opposing player all alone leading to a goal against, that was painfully obvious. The bad angle under the elbow goal? Painfully obvious. But I think we play 5v5 pretty even, we give up chances, we generate chances of our own.

It doesn't matter if we do it less or more than average, it is the quality and nature of the gaffe that is the difference. (but to answer your question, yes, I think we make a lot more low level mistakes a game than other teams when we are playing poorly than other teams).

Yeah, you've harped on the one where he passed it to a guy repeatedly. Got it. Has he done that like Schneider seemed to do every other night behind the net? Like Jack Hughes doesn't pass it right to guys three or four times a game (but often steals it back) and Damon Severson hasn't passed it to someone in almost every game of his career coming into this year? I mean ask yourself how he can get back from that.

The bad angle goal he gave up was a pretty tight space but not a good goal. The Boqvist goal was trash. The deflections were just amazingly 5 hole placed but he could've maybe kept his stick down.

How many backdoor tap ins did we give up during that stretch? How many Ty Smith giveaways or misplays, or terrible positioning? How many times Pk Subban breaks a stick == odd man rush, or where he's just flailing about on his belly failing to break up a 2-on-1.

This is not an 'all teams do it' sorta thing. It's a young young young team making mistakes that its mediocre young goaltender cannot compensate for, and when he tries to overcompensate, he's off his game.

 

[devilsblood]

It doesn't matter if we do it less or more than average, it is the quality and nature of the gaffe that is the difference. (but to answer your question, yes, I think we make a lot more low level mistakes a game than other teams when we are playing poorly than other teams).

Yeah, you've harped on the one where he passed it to a guy repeatedly. Got it. Has he done that like Schneider seemed to do every other night behind the net? Like Jack Hughes doesn't pass it right to guys three or four times a game (but often steals it back) and Damon Severson hasn't passed it to someone in almost every game of his career coming into this year? I mean ask yourself how he can get back from that.

The bad angle goal he gave up was a pretty tight space but not a good goal. The Boqvist goal was trash. The deflections were just amazingly 5 hole placed but he could've maybe kept his stick down.

How many backdoor tap ins did we give up during that stretch? How many Ty Smith giveaways or misplays, or terrible positioning? How many times Pk Subban breaks a stick == odd man rush, or where he's just flailing about on his belly failing to break up a 2-on-1.

This is not an 'all teams do it' sorta thing. It's a young young young team making mistakes that its mediocre young goaltender cannot compensate for, and when he tries to overcompensate, he's off his game.

I agree, we have a mediocre goalie with a lingering heel issue, who is forced to play every game because aside from him we don't have NHL quality goaltenders. That's a big issue.

Back door tap ins? I legit don't know, this is your point to prove. Though given our average goal against distance is from pretty far out I'm doubting we give up a lot relative to the league.

Cory Schneider from a 3 years ago? On that I'm not seeing the relevance.

 

[MullerBrotenVerbeek]

The Devils have one of the most expensive Ds that collectively has played poorly for the experience they have.

Goaltending is part of the D. Devils have had a mess at goalie tandems for the past few years.

Now Blackwood tests positive with COVID. Did he get the vaccines? If no, he should be dumped, trade for whatever you can get. It will just be another excuse why the Devils can't make it into the playoffs.

Why would it matter? The vaccine doesn't prevent you from catching or spreading coldvid.