Devils 2021-22 team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - part XII

[Camille the Eel]

I'm just trying to follow your logic. You said that it won't make any sense to compare Bratt's future deal with someone like Hughes and/or Hischier and that we would have to compare it with someone who plays the same position, on the same team. If what I just mentionned is how you see things, who are we supposed to compare Bratt to when all our other wingers are hot garbage, outside of Johnsson who's playing "ok" this year.

What I said was that Bratt's agent will most definitly try and compare the deal he wants with what Hughe/Hischier got, based on the production he's giving his this year, regardless of the position they play on our team.

Bratt has been our best player this year and should really be going to the All Star game and not Jack. He should be paid accordingly and if we don’t pay him someone else will.

 

[Camille the Eel]

Marchand. Marner. Bratt is that kind of talent. See how he drives play. The sky is the limit and he’s been our best player bar none. It hasn’t even been close.

 

[njdevils1982]

Bratt has been our best player this year and should really be going to the All Star game and not Jack. He should be paid accordingly and if we don’t pay him someone else will.

 

[My3Sons]

Thanks for posting that.

 

[McDuffz88]

Bratt has been our best player this year and should really be going to the All Star game and not Jack. He should be paid accordingly and if we don’t pay him someone else will.

Only good thing about Hughes at the all star game is maybe we can see what Hughes can look like with elite talent. Maybe it convinces Fitz to pull the trigger on a real top 6 option

 

[My3Sons]

Only good thing about Hughes at the all star game is maybe we can see what Hughes can look like with elite talent. Maybe it convinces Fitz to pull the trigger on a real top 6 option

you can already see that with recent games with Bratt.

 

[ChicksDigTheTrap]

Buchnevich? Though he is couple years older than Bratt.

AATJ used the same comp in an article today.

"Some perspective is needed. Here is a list of forwards at CapFriendly organized by total points in the NHL alongside their cap hits. As of January 16, Jesper Bratt is tied with Matthew Tkachuk (cap hit: $7 million), Alex DeBrincat (cap hit: $6.4 million), Jason Robertson (cap hit: $795,000, entry level contract), and Lucas Raymond (cap hit: $925,000, entry level contract). The only players with more points than Bratt in the entire NHL with a cap hit below $3 million are Jordan Kyrou ($2.8 million) and Troy Terry ($1.4 million). The majority of the players with more than 32 points right now have contracts with an average value of well over $5 million. I would get used to that number being around what to expect in Bratt’s next cap hit. Given that Bratt is also eligible for arbitration, time will not necessarily be on Fitzgerald’s side. And should Bratt keep up his torrid rate of scoring - which we all should hope he does! - the cost may increase.

I am still struggling to find a good comparable for Bratt. But it could be a similar situation to what Pavel Buchnevich just underwent. While he has been a more productive player and came off a more expensive bridge deal (two seasons, $6.5 million), his 20-goal, 48-point season in 54 games yielded a $23.2 million contract for four seasons from St. Louis after being dealt away. If the Devils believe Bratt can be an offensive force like this in the future and continue to be a very good 5-on-5 player, then a four or five season deal with a cap hit around $5.5 million may be appropriate as something to aim for. But it could be higher if the production sky rockets and/or other comparable contracts emerge with players earning even more money. Still, Bratt just needs to keep on producing, keep on being a great winger, keep on supporting whomever is his center, and he will become a richer young man real soon."

A Very Early Look at the 2021 New Jersey Devils Future Free Agents - All About The Jersey

 

[Guttersniped]

Of course they do...players' agents compare them with other players on the same team, and similar players at the same position around the league all the time. You don't think the first part of Bratt's next negotiation will be his agent saying Jack and Nico got this before they proved anything now give my client his after he did?

He’s a winger and will get compared to other wingers. They’re pretty position specific. His production puts him in a good negotiating spot.

Nico & Jack signed for 7-8 years. Nico gave up 4 RFA years & 3 UFA years (and signed pre-COVID frozen cap). Jack gave up 4 RFA years & 4 UFA years.

Bratt has 2 RFA years left. His AAV will depend a lot on how many UFA years he gives up, as they cost more in a contract with a young player like him.

The last negotiation with Bratt obviously didn’t go great, which they differed on his value (which isn’t good). That pretty common with RFAs without arbitration rights.

The big deadline will be his arbitration hearing. He can’t actually go to arbitration or he’s gone. Sooner or later he’ll be moved, that’s a doomsday clock.

Even if you don’t actually go to arbitration, a bridge deal after a bridge deal means the player is a goner (Reinhart in Buffalo), sure looks like a goner (Fiala in Minny) or terrible idiotic costly mistake (Holland stepped in it with Nurse in Edmonton).

I listed the endless number of wingers who get 5-6 year deals so they won’t be too old when they hit the UFA market. That’s going to be 2 RFA years and 3-4 UFA years. (Unless they do 4 years, which could happen but would be a bummer.)

 

[ChicksDigTheTrap]

He’s a winger and will get compared to other wingers. They’re pretty position specific. His production puts him in a good negotiating spot.

Nico & Jack signed for 7-8 years. Nico gave up 4 RFA years & 3 UFA years (and signed pre-COVID frozen cap). Jack gave up 4 RFA years & 4 UFA years.

Bratt has 2 RFA years left. His AAV will depend a lot on how many UFA years he gives up, as they cost more in a contract with a young player like him.

The last negotiation with Bratt obviously didn’t go great, which they differed on his value (which isn’t good). That pretty common with RFAs without arbitration rights.

The big deadline will be his arbitration hearing. He can’t actually go to arbitration or he’s gone. Sooner or later he’ll be moved, that’s a doomsday clock.

Even if you don’t actually go to arbitration, a bridge deal after a bridge deal means the player is a goner (Reinhart in Buffalo), sure looks like a goner (Fiala in Minny) or terrible idiotic costly mistake (Holland stepped in it with Nurse in Edmonton).

I listed the endless number of wingers who get 5-6 year deals so they won’t be too old when they hit the UFA market. That’s going to be 2 RFA years and 3-4 UFA years. (Unless they do 4 years, which could happen but would be a bummer.)

Good post but why do you think 4 years would be a "bummer"? I was thinking 4 for low $6's would be good for both sides.

Also the holdup the last time could have been uncertainty over the cap moving forward. Hard to negotiate a long term deal when there was that much cap uncertainty as there was at that time IMO.

 

[Patrik26]

Only good thing about Hughes at the all star game is maybe we can see what Hughes can look like with elite talent. Maybe it convinces Fitz to pull the trigger on a real top 6 option

It's a meaningless 3-on-3. There's nothing to learn that he shouldn't be aware of already.

 

[njdevils1982]

It's a meaningless 3-on-3. There's nothing to learn that he shouldn't be aware of already.

this.

if fitz is making decisions off a joke game were f***ing royally screwed (he's not)

 

[Emperoreddy]

It's a meaningless 3-on-3. There's nothing to learn that he shouldn't be aware of already.

Nothing for fans to learn either. It's a pure exhibition.

Also Fitz is aware we need more wingers because he tried to add them in the offseason. It's annoying this needs to keep being repeated.

 

[Guttersniped]

I really don't know what's so hard to understand here. Damon Severson has played his entire career on pathetic teams, for the same organisation and we are once again going to miss the playoffs unless something major happens. As a pro athlete, having the option to handpick your team is probably the best privilege they have and he'll be able to do so in about 18 months. Why the hell would he choose to stay here when he can go anywhere he wants, based on the salary he'll ask. He can choose to go to a legit contender for peanuts or cash in like Dougie and play for a team who needs help. I'm not saying there's no chance we resign him, what I'm saying is that it would not be in our best interest to do so, knowing who we have pushing for possible jobs in the next year or two. Yes, I do realize that our best prospects do not play the same side as Severson but I also realize that not all teams have 3LHD and 3 RHD. It would be the ideal situation but wouldn't be the end of the world if it wasn't the case.

As for Nico, he's not scoring at a better pace then he was and will probably finish around the same PPG he's been posting since joining the league in 2017-18, so yeah, that's what I call stagnating. Mercer isn't stagnating or declining because it's his 1st year, didn't think I had to explain this. Nathan Bastian was almost run out of town by 90% of this board last year, including yourself if I remember correctly, and I couldn't be happier about the success he's having this year. With his play so far, it'll maybe wake up the "anti grrrrrrit" committee that players like him are an important part of a winning formula and the absence of Wood is more detrimental then some might think.

P.S. I'm aware that Hall was born and raised in Calgary but he spent the first 6 years of his professional life, starting from the age of 18, in Edmonton... wasn't talking about where he took his first baby steps as a toddler.

Yes @Triumph why were you trying to run poor Bastian out of town!?! You hate-filled monster..

I only posted these and held back on the anti-Bastian hate-filled screeds from posters who thought he was worthless and was happy to see him go (that’s what “run out of town” means, right?) like myself, @billingtons ghost @Bet the Over @FooteBahl @Guadana @MartyOwns @hidek91 @Cheddabombs @Poppy Whoa Sonnet etc etc

God, how we all loathed him. You were the lone voice of reason as always.

 

[Andre Palot]

The Devils no longer have the cap space to be taking on bad contracts and it is too late in the rebuild to be doing so IMO

It's a deal that I put at the bottom on the priority list in comparison list vs the rest of that post I made but I still contend its a deal that makes sense. Hornqvist would give us productive results 5 on 5 and is really good on the power play. All stuff we could improve on.

It's not like we are going go be anchoring ourselves to some albatross contract, for a cooked player for five years and getting a pittance in return.

Hornqvist wouldn't even be that 'bad' of a contract. One year left at 5.2

Assuming he can get back to even his 2020 stats, this trade would be net benefit. If it doesn't, you flip him to a contender with relatively no issues.

 

[Tao Jersey Jones]

Always liked Bastian more than McLeod going back to Misssissauga.

 

[NJDevs26]

LOL I actually think a majority of the board was pretty united in not wanting Bastian to go in the expansion draft, if we had a poll like 90% would have been hoping Seattle took Johnsson or McLeod. The only 'hate' came when some people wanted to give Seattle a pick for them not to take Bastian which would have been an unneeded extravagance, proven even more by the fact we got him back for nothing. As it worked out, we would have looked doubly silly if we gave them a pick to keep Bastian and Johnsson improved in Seattle.

 

[Guttersniped]

It's a deal that I put at the bottom on the priority list in comparison list vs the rest of that post I made but I still contend its a deal that makes sense. Hornqvist would give us productive results 5 on 5 and is really good on the power play. All stuff we could improve on.

It's not like we are going go be anchoring ourselves to some albatross contract, for a cooked player for five years and getting a pittance in return.

Hornqvist wouldn't even be that 'bad' of a contract. One year left at 5.2

Assuming he can get back to even his 2020 stats, this trade would be net benefit. If it doesn't, you flip him to a contender with relatively no issues.

I like him and he’s actually been a great addition for Florida, I just don’t know if they give up much to get rid of him. Leddy got a 2nd back from Detroit (granted the NYI took Panik back in a reverse cap dump but they gained +4.125m overall in cap space). And Leddy is making 7m in real money this season too.

Detroit might have been suckered by Leddy showing signs of life in 2020-21 (that rebound ended). And maybe Horny (and how are you not using this fantastic nickname?) will be worse on a non-stacked team but he’s still pretty useful right now.

If they paid us to take him or even dumped him on us basically for free then he definitely wouldn’t be a bad player to have for a year. (Depending on what our cap looked like.) He did a lot for the Florida locker room, he has a lot of intangibles, plus he’s still solidly productive. The only reason they wouldn’t keep him is because they can’t afford to.

However I’m not giving them assets (like the 2nd for Leddy) while helping them out with a Horny’s cap hit though, he gets banged up a lot due to the style of his play & he could fall off the cliff at any point.

 

[Bleedred]

I don't think there were too many people that wanted Bastian out of town. I think at the worst many people just didn't wanna protect him. I was one of them. I was hoping they would take Subban or Johnsson at the time and both of those players were exposed.

 

[Emperoreddy]

Yeah the idea of using a protection slot or trading Seattle a pick for him was called dumb, and rightfully so since we got him back for free.

Fitz played the expansion draft exactly right.

 

[Buck Dancer]

Yes @Triumph why were you trying to run poor Bastian out of town!?! You hate-filled monster..

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I only posted these and held back on the anti-Bastian hate-filled screeds from posters who thought he was worthless and was happy to see him go (that’s what “run out of town” means, right?) like myself, @billingtons ghost @Bet the Over @FooteBahl @Guadana @MartyOwns @hidek91 @Cheddabombs @Poppy Whoa Sonnet etc etc

God, how we all loathed him. You were the lone voice of reason as always.

Good on you for catching that, I guess @Triumph wasn’t a Bastian basher after all… stain on me!

However, I do remember ZBC and his little fan club, who were saying that Bastian was a run of the mill 4th liner that can be replaced easily.

The rest of the posters you mentioned are generally in agreement with my stance on adding size and grrrrrrit, so thanks for pointing out the obvious.

 

[Guttersniped]

Good on you for catching that, I guess @Triumph wasn’t a Bastian basher after all… stain on me!

However, I do remember ZBC and his little fan club, who were saying that Bastian was a run of the mill 4th liner that can be replaced easily.

The rest of the posters you mentioned are generally in agreement with my stance on adding size and grrrrrrit, so thanks for pointing out the obvious.

 

[glenwo2]

AATJ used the same comp in an article today.

"Some perspective is needed. Here is a list of forwards at CapFriendly organized by total points in the NHL alongside their cap hits. As of January 16, Jesper Bratt is tied with Matthew Tkachuk (cap hit: $7 million), Alex DeBrincat (cap hit: $6.4 million), Jason Robertson (cap hit: $795,000, entry level contract), and Lucas Raymond (cap hit: $925,000, entry level contract). The only players with more points than Bratt in the entire NHL with a cap hit below $3 million are Jordan Kyrou ($2.8 million) and Troy Terry ($1.4 million). The majority of the players with more than 32 points right now have contracts with an average value of well over $5 million. I would get used to that number being around what to expect in Bratt’s next cap hit. Given that Bratt is also eligible for arbitration, time will not necessarily be on Fitzgerald’s side. And should Bratt keep up his torrid rate of scoring - which we all should hope he does! - the cost may increase.

I am still struggling to find a good comparable for Bratt. But it could be a similar situation to what Pavel Buchnevich just underwent. While he has been a more productive player and came off a more expensive bridge deal (two seasons, $6.5 million), his 20-goal, 48-point season in 54 games yielded a $23.2 million contract for four seasons from St. Louis after being dealt away. If the Devils believe Bratt can be an offensive force like this in the future and continue to be a very good 5-on-5 player, then a four or five season deal with a cap hit around $5.5 million may be appropriate as something to aim for. But it could be higher if the production sky rockets and/or other comparable contracts emerge with players earning even more money. Still, Bratt just needs to keep on producing, keep on being a great winger, keep on supporting whomever is his center, and he will become a richer young man real soon."

A Very Early Look at the 2021 New Jersey Devils Future Free Agents - All About The Jersey

I disagree.

I think he ends up with a deal that is between 6 and 6.5 million per.

I do not see Bratt's agent shooting for anything below 6 million for his client.

Only question is what the contract-length would be.

 

[Guadana]

It’s great and luck we got him back for free.
That’s was obvious how he made good impact to the game, that is working for now. Hockey is not only about top-6 minutes on the ice, not only about shot and passing.
And luck wasn’t the evidence never before. But hey, we are special. Easy replaceable.

the thing is a lot of talented teams try to find grit players who can play. Defensemen who strong defensively. But hey we are special, let’s built our defense with Smith, Walsh, Severson, Hamilton, Hughes and bring back Butcher.”Every defenseman will be puckmover”. And sign more “5’8” skilly wingers. Fiala, Gaudreau, Jack, Bratt, Nico and Holtz! Wow great names. It will be fun to watch, full of sugar. A great dish for breakfast.

 

[FooteBahl]

LOL I actually think a majority of the board was pretty united in not wanting Bastian to go in the expansion draft, if we had a poll like 90% would have been hoping Seattle took Johnsson or McLeod. The only 'hate' came when some people wanted to give Seattle a pick for them not to take Bastian which would have been an unneeded extravagance, proven even more by the fact we got him back for nothing. As it worked out, we would have looked doubly silly if we gave them a pick to keep Bastian and Johnsson improved in Seattle.

I was one of the guys who wanted Nate protected, but the guy I was leaving exposed was Kuok.

 

[hidek91]

Yeah the idea of using a protection slot or trading Seattle a pick for him was called dumb, and rightfully so since we got him back for free.

Fitz played the expansion draft exactly right.

Two things:

1) The discussion wasn't really about adding a pick, it was mostly which player should be left exposed, McLeod or Bastian. People were hoping that Seattle for some reason would take Subban, Butcher or Johnson and the more realistic part of this board knew that they'd probably take McLeod or Bastian, whoever was left exposed. I think that this was a very tough choice to make and while majority of the board who was in "keep McLeod" camp may have been right, Bastian was very underrated here and perceived like "just another random 4th line physical scrub", which IMO wasn't fair.

2) Fitzgerald couldn't have possibly known that Bastian would be waived and re-acquired for free at the moment of expansion draft. I think that it was one of the blunders of Seattle management but that's like saying that Larsson was correct at pick #4 because (due to the blunder of other management years later) we got a Hart Trophy winning forward for him.