Speculation: Detroit's Next Move

[tomd]

I (and I think most Ducks fans) would be on board with Fowler for Tatar +. That's actually why I read your boards, I'm hoping for news on a deal. But I don't think the + could be a D man. Our problem is that we have too many D men.

I hope a trade of this nature comes soon. I've loved having Fowler on our team, but a move is needed for us. I think you guys would love having him here too.

The problem with Tatar from a Ducks POV is two-fold:
1. He doesn't fit the physical nature that the Ducks like to have
2. More importantly, he may not be affordable after this year.

Remember that GMBM traded Palmieri for draft picks one year before he became an RFA and his reasoning was that the Ducks wouldn't be able to afford to resign him. Tatar could be Palmieri V2 and I don't think the Ducks would be anxious to go there.

Having said that, I think there is a deal to be made between the two teams but it would involve somewhat younger and more contract friendly players going to Anaheim.

 

[Ezekial]

Because 3 million in cap space this season isn't marginal cap space and chances are that a retention trade will eat up more cap space than a buyout.

A trade at 50% retention now would cost the wings 7.8 million over 3 years a buyout would be 9.8 over 6 years.

We don't need 3 million in cap space.
If I'm being quite honest, I'm under the impression that KH planned to be this exact position when he was signing unrestricted free agents - knowing he would have to give 5 to ddk and 4 to Pete.

 

[Duck Off]

I hope this fancy stats would convince Ducks to trade Tatar+Smith for Fowler. Does it work cap-wise?

Tatar+Smith doesn't work for Anaheim for several reasons.

We have two too many defenseman. Even if we trade Fowler to Detroit, we'll have to find another taker for Stoner or Bieksa. Therefore, not a chance in hell Smith comes here.

Many Duck and Wing fans have agreed on Fowler for Tatar+Sheahan. I do not like this for Anaheim, as IMO, it doesn't make us any better than we are with Fowler. That said, the deal fills both team needs so I do think it's a trade we could see. However, this has Anaheim adding salary, and although we'll be adding another forward, which we do need; we'll still be way over budget. The Ducks have to shed salary, and obviously Detroit can't take on extra salary.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

A trade at 50% retention now would cost the wings 7.8 million over 3 years a buyout would be 9.8 over 6 years.

We don't need 3 million in cap space.
If I'm being quite honest, I'm under the impression that KH planned to be this exact position when he was signing unrestricted free agents - knowing he would have to give 5 to ddk and 4 to Pete.

That extra two million in cost over three more years may be worth it depending on what options they have available to them to improve their team. They're pretty tight against the cap even with the LTIR option. If they want room to call guys up to account for in-season injuries that aren't LTIR worthy or to make a Fowler for Tatar type of deal where they may need to take on a little more cap dollars, they're going to have to find it somewhere. I'm not saying that they need to do it. I'm saying that there's a good argument for it and to dismiss it out of hand simply because of a slightly increased cost spread out over a longer time frame doesn't tell the whole picture. That 3 mil in cap space could be the difference between the Wings being in the playoffs and not. Now whether that matters to KH or you is obviously something only you and KH could respond to.

I think it's a possibility only because he has been heard kicking tires on a d-man and they may need to make that sacrifice to bring that d-man in. We'll see. Anaheim certainly has motivation to move a defenseman and I can see why Detroit would want Fowler.

 

[phlocky]

Some info....


As per that link earlier in the thread, Detroit is at 73.5 million. Let's pretend Mrazek gets 4.5. That will put them at 78 million. There's only 6 dmen listed. So we need 1 more. It will either be Ouellet, Sproul or Jensen. Likely Ouellet. 700k. So...

78.7 mil. (5.7 million over the cap - within the 10% overage rule)

That's for a roster of 24 (15 forwards, 7 defence, 2 goalies) and as it turns out you're only allowed 23. So let's drop 1 forward.

Pulkinnen injured. LTIR to start the season. -800k
(Mantha was not calculated in the linked chart so in this exercise he's starting in Grand Rapids until a spot opens up)

So now, you have the proper roster size 14/7/2 and a cap number of 79.9 which is 4.9 million over the cap. The LTIR amount for Franzen and Vitale is 5 million. So, for this year, the wings are cap compliant without doing anything.

Now, here's some other important information... In order to fully gain the 5 million in LTIR space for Franzen and Vitale the wings WANT to be 5 million over the cap at the start of the season. If they are 2 million over the cap at season start they've pissed away 3 million in cap space for the season. I'm not saying that defends signing amounts or term but that's another thing that comes into play for the wings off season plan. It's almost like they know what they're doing sometimes.

You would think for the amount of moaning and groaning and posting some wings fans do they'd look at a chart to get knowledgeable before posting.

Anyways, it's no secret Holland wants to make a trade for a top 2 D. He's loaded up on 17-18 nhl quality forwards to facilitate such a trade. Does he get it done? Time will tell. But if he does, this offseason ends up making a lot more sense. He could move a forward, a D, a pick, etc, as long as even money was in / out. Bringing in a top 2 D could slot all our defence in their proper spots and would open up roster room for more ice time for younger players and Mantha could end up on the opening day roster, etc.

Eat your popcorn, summer's not over.

Okay, not a wings fan here but just a general question for you. Many here are saying that you have to wait until day one of the season to place a player on LTIR and that this would actually make the wings opening day roster over the cap limit. I'm pretty sure that this is wrong and that you CAN place players on LTIR before the season starts so they aren't part of your opening day roster. However, IIRC, there is a catch/conditions attached to doing so. Am I correct or are the ones saying LTIR players have to start on the opening day roster and also, if I'm correct, what's those restrictions/conditions.

TBH, I'm 99.9% certain that I'm right and that the conditions are that you don't get "cap relief" for those players who start the season on LTIR, it's almost like their contracts don't exist until they come off LTIR.

To expand a bit. IIRC, 2 years ago the Flyers started Kimmo Timonen on LTIR before the season started. If they had waited til day one they would have been over the cap limit on day one so they had to do it. I think the fallout from that was that with his LTIR, they were over the cap limit by like 2 mil and because he went on LTIR before the season started they were only allowed the amount HE put them over on day one (2 mil). So the Flyers didn't get his full cap hit as overage allowance compared to if he started the season on the roster

 

[Martinez]

Is smith good or bad?
Answer- it's not as simple as that.
Most wings fans know that he's not consistent, he makes bad turnovers and it seems like his brain is simply not there.
But! He's showing more and more flashes of being a really good offensive minded defenseman.
So, will he continue to build on his success and keep his turnovers down, or will he continue to make bad mistakes and be a healthy scratch here and there.
It's not is he good or bad.

On topic, I would do smith and Tatar for fowler. As a wings fan

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Is smith good or bad?
Answer- it's not as simple as that.
Most wings fans know that he's not consistent, he makes bad turnovers and it seems like his brain is simply not there.
But! He's showing more and more flashes of being a really good offensive minded defenseman.
So, will he continue to build on his success and keep his turnovers down, or will he continue to make bad mistakes and be a healthy scratch here and there.
It's not is he good or bad.

On topic, I would do smith and Tatar for fowler. As a wings fan

I doubt the Ducks want Smith with all their depth on the blue line. After Fowler, they have Vatanen, Lindholm, Bieksa, Despres, Theodore, Stoner, Manson, and probably Montour that they want to get into the big club at least at certain points this season. I think if they can tag Stoner with Fowler to Detroit, they'd consider bringing back a d-man but Detroit probably balks at that even if it's someone like Ericsson going the other way with Tatar.

 

[darkwingduck]

Would Tatar+Sheahan for Fowler+Thompson work? Salary about equal, thompson is out with an injury (shouldn't be back till trade deadline), but he's a good defensive center that you can until he comes back go over the cap with his salary.

 

[JPE123]

Is smith good or bad?
Answer- it's not as simple as that.
Most wings fans know that he's not consistent, he makes bad turnovers and it seems like his brain is simply not there.
But! He's showing more and more flashes of being a really good offensive minded defenseman.
So, will he continue to build on his success and keep his turnovers down, or will he continue to make bad mistakes and be a healthy scratch here and there.
It's not is he good or bad.

On topic, I would do smith and Tatar for fowler. As a wings fan

I think Smith is good but he makes a godawful turnover or takes a dumb penalty usually at the worst time. Other players make turnovers but Smitty's always seem to end very badly. If he could stop the brain fades, he's a talented guy. Question is, can he? been waiting a few yrs now

 

[Blue Goose]

Would Tatar+Sheahan for Fowler+Thompson work? Salary about equal, thompson is out with an injury (shouldn't be back till trade deadline), but he's a good defensive center that you can until he comes back go over the cap with his salary.

I was wondering if Nyquist + Jurco for Fowler + Thompson might make more sense for both sides. Salaries are virtually identical - Wings add $50K in cap, Ducks save $500K in real money. Nyquist gives Anaheim more stability since he has three years left on his deal instead of Tatar's one, and they get a cheap bottom-6 player in Jurco (and I can't see Holland trading Sheahan after just signing him last month). Thompson can go on LTIR in Detroit, and with Jurco gone the Wings get another lineup spot for one of their other prospects.

 

[Ezekial]

I was wondering if Nyquist + Jurco for Fowler + Thompson might make more sense for both sides. Salaries are virtually identical - Wings add $50K in cap, Ducks save $500K in real money. Nyquist gives Anaheim more stability since he has three years left on his deal instead of Tatar's one, and they get a cheap bottom-6 player in Jurco (and I can't see Holland trading Sheahan after just signing him last month). Thompson can go on LTIR in Detroit, and with Jurco gone the Wings get another lineup spot for one of their other prospects.

I'm under the impression that the Ducks want a LW, Nyquist pretty much has exclusively played RW his entire career. Tatar plays both.

Personally as a Tatar "fanboy" I would prefer to trade Nyqie, but I think Tats is the Top6 wing we would be giving up.

 

[nbwingsfan]

I still don't understand why Holland would re-sign Darren Helm when he already has Larkin, Nielsen, Sheahan, Glendening and Ott at Center.

Wedon't really understand it either.

 

[topdawg]

Well don't really understand it either.

Because speed was greater than skill in the finals and we don't have stars to give the money too. If you don't have all stars to pay money too might as well pay depth players so you can still be competitive.

 

[Ezekial]

Because speed was greater than skill in the finals and we don't have stars to give the money too. If you don't have all stars to pay money too might as well pay depth players so you can still be competitive.

AA is fast and skilled.

 

[topdawg]

AA is fast and skilled.

struggling to see your point. Are you only allowed to have one fast player out of fourteen on your team?

 

[Ezekial]

struggling to see your point. Are you only allowed to have one fast player out of fourteen on your team?

Helm was expendable, we didn't need to sign him for 5 more years because he's fast. It's not like our team is full of slugs, there's a couple guys without legs but it isn't an epidemic. He has some use, but he isn't utilized properly. I like Helm, I was just hoping to see a door more open for a young player to take a spot. That being said Helm/AA/Larkin are 3 of the fastest players in the league - so that's pretty cool.

 

[topdawg]

Helm was expendable, we didn't need to sign him for 5 more years because he's fast. It's not like our team is full of slugs, there's a couple guys without legs but it isn't an epidemic. He has some use, but he isn't utilized properly. I like Helm, I was just hoping to see a door more open for a young player to take a spot. That being said Helm/AA/Larkin are 3 of the fastest players in the league - so that's pretty cool.

Maybe too long but, and it doesn't look too good down the line with all our long contracts but if kenny needs to trade some old fart so a good younger player can stay he will. Why not try to have the best team you can have, with some good young players in the minors, maybe better players than in the nhl but still have stuff to learn, but call them up if the vets aren't making it happen. it gives us more options instead of having kids up and it doesn't work then we have no where to turn to. i know a lot of wings fan want just the kids to play but if they don't work out then we have nothing to turn to after that. kenny keeps the team competitive trying to be as good as we can, giving us as many options as we can have. i am not a fan of being brutal so we can get a good pick. i enjoy us being in playoffs every year and having a chance for the cup. lots of teams don't make playoffs and thats the best time of year to watch hockey.

 

[VoidCreature]

They look like they're completely paralyzed by the salary cap to me. I have no idea what Holland can do to improve the team that doesn't completely gut it of youth and prospects. It's a shame, too, because I really like the Wings, but they might be doomed to a half decade or more of losing by the choices they've made.

 

[topdawg]

They look like they're completely paralyzed by the salary cap to me. I have no idea what Holland can do to improve the team that doesn't completely gut it of youth and prospects. It's a shame, too, because I really like the Wings, but they might be doomed to a half decade or more of losing by the choices they've made.

People have been saying for years that we wouldn't make playoffs and we still do. Kenny has not lost an allstar player because we have been in cap trouble. there is 30 teams in the league, you can't win the cup every year. i don't get how wings fans are upset with kenny, he keeps us in the playoffs every year with a 30 team league. ya chicago is the team right now, they have toes and kane a couple high picks so wings fan think we need to totally rebuild. chi town wouldn't win cups with keith who was a second round pick. sea brook wasn't a top 10 pick. when the wings won the cup in 08 the boys that led us there were lidstrom, 3rd round pick and d and z 6th and 7th round picks. wings fan keep crying cause they think we need to rebuild and be the worst team so we can get a high draft pick. be happy that we make playoffs every year and when we hit it out of the park again with another late round draft pick and win the cup with stilll making playoffs every year. wings fans on this site make me sick, they are like rich kids that think they deserve everything.

 

[VoidCreature]

People have been saying for years that we wouldn't make playoffs and we still do. Kenny has not lost an allstar player because we have been in cap trouble. there is 30 teams in the league, you can't win the cup every year. i don't get how wings fans are upset with kenny, he keeps us in the playoffs every year with a 30 team league. ya chicago is the team right now, they have toes and kane a couple high picks so wings fan think we need to totally rebuild. chi town wouldn't win cups with keith who was a second round pick. sea brook wasn't a top 10 pick. when the wings won the cup in 08 the boys that led us there were lidstrom, 3rd round pick and d and z 6th and 7th round picks. wings fan keep crying cause they think we need to rebuild and be the worst team so we can get a high draft pick. be happy that we make playoffs every year and when we hit it out of the park again with another late round draft pick and win the cup with stilll making playoffs every year. wings fans on this site make me sick, they are like rich kids that think they deserve everything.

I mean, yeah, I see what you're saying. But a roster gets to a point where the most prudent thing is to turn it over to the youth. I thought that with the emergence of Tatar, Nyquist and Larkin that would be the direction this team would go. But instead Holland keeps handing out term like candy to players on the back leg of their careers.

It's not about winning the cup every year, either. But the thing is that I just don't think this team can win a cup. They've been making the playoffs, sure. But they're going out in the first round every time. If you don't have a realistic chance to win, is there really that big a difference between squeaking in and missing?

You don't have to tear down the team and finish last in order to rebuild. The Devils have done a pretty good job at bringing in youth while staying out of the basement for the most part. The transition is going to have to happen eventually. Why wait?

 

[Datsyukian Deke]

They look like they're completely paralyzed by the salary cap to me. I have no idea what Holland can do to improve the team that doesn't completely gut it of youth and prospects. It's a shame, too, because I really like the Wings, but they might be doomed to a half decade or more of losing by the choices they've made.

He can be shown the exit just as fast as humanly possible. It's been needing to be done for a few years now, but with an owner in declining health, and a son that might take over only interested in the business aspect of the sport, nothing will ever get done.

 

[SirloinUB]

Well don't really understand it either.

Well the wings didnt have Ott or Nielsen nor a guarantee either would sign when Holland signed helm.

 

[Boondock]

Is it just me or is the wings cap situation fine once Franzen and Vitale are put on LTIR? They have a 5+ combined cap hit. I can then see them send a couple guys down to the AHL. Probably need to add Ouellet and maybe Sproul to round out their 23 man roster.

 

[nbwingsfan]

Well the wings didnt have Ott or Nielsen nor a guarantee either would sign when Holland signed helm.

Which is fine, because we have a younger, faster and more skilled version of Helm waiting to take his place. $4M for an often injured and getting old 3rd line player is a big mistake when we have a decent amount of NHL ready prospects. Especially when he's signed for half a decade..

 

[SirloinUB]

Which is fine, because we have a younger, faster and more skilled version of Helm waiting to take his place. $4M for an often injured and getting old 3rd line player is a big mistake when we have a decent amount of NHL ready prospects. Especially when he's signed for half a decade..

Im just making the point that we can't use the hindsight of signing Ott and Nielsen to criticize the Helm signing. They were unknowns and the Red Wings clearly lacked C depth.