Pavels Dog
Registered User
Name all the teams that have enough elite talent to carry them to a win within the next 10 years.
Detroit Redwings Downfall
- Thread starter Dbarthnek96
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Golden_Jet
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- Sep 21, 2005
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with the Wings being worse
Currently Sens are tied for 16th in league by points percentage. (So mid pack draft)
Wings are drafting 8th overall
WarriorofTime
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- Jul 3, 2010
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If Yzerman's leash is as long as believed, why not just take a look at this season, realize he has Seider and Raymond locked in already, Edvinsson still has another year of ELC.. and say rather than try and pull an analytic aberration to sneak a mediocre roster into a wildcard spot (and likely be an easy out), just make a go for it and take a run at a top 5 pick and potential lotto luck. Colorado only picked 4th the year they were historically bad.. but they got Cale Makar. The Wings rebuild is really still an elite player away and they're not likely to get it picking 11th or crossing their fingers about Nate Danielson to reach a higher threshold than anticipated.
I know it ruins the "steady march to progress" narrative that a couple folks are clinging towards but with many of the key pieces being the big money players, even though their contracts are fine, it's pretty apparent they don't have the elite level talent to make a run at it and aren't Sun Belt-y enough that they'll get a bunch of aberrations from outside the org on great deals. That leaves you with just hoping to get lucky or else it looks like a team that will try and limp into the postseason and be a 1st round exit/maybe a one year where it comes together to make the 2nd round, kinda team.
I know it ruins the "steady march to progress" narrative that a couple folks are clinging towards but with many of the key pieces being the big money players, even though their contracts are fine, it's pretty apparent they don't have the elite level talent to make a run at it and aren't Sun Belt-y enough that they'll get a bunch of aberrations from outside the org on great deals. That leaves you with just hoping to get lucky or else it looks like a team that will try and limp into the postseason and be a 1st round exit/maybe a one year where it comes together to make the 2nd round, kinda team.
Golden_Jet
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Person who wrote tweet, looks like a dumb person to me
Tweet says xGF%
But looks like sorted by xG%
That’s literally impossible, without a crystal ball.
SirKillalot
Registered User
Subjectively you can say what you want, but objectively they are almost equal. Eichel is a little better, but in general also had better support cast around him.
For the most part Larkin have got decent linemates, but not elite.
So we shall see when the team gets even better and when they get to the playoffs.
I think if you put Larkin on that Vegas team that won, it wouldn't bee much of a difference compared to Eichel.
WarriorofTime
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TSN had Eichel 32nd, Larkin Unranked on their top 50 player list
Sportsnet had Eichel 21st, Larkin Unranked on their top 50 player list
ESPN had Eichel 16th, Larkin 49th on their top 100 player list
Take stuff like this for what it's worth, but there's a clear consensus in the hockey world that Eichel is comfortably a better player than Larkin.
Peasy
Registered User
The refusal to bottom out an extra year or two will forever remain the biggest head scratcher. Maybe they were scared Larkin would walk if they did that? But what they have right now was the alternative...
Wings fans keep usin the gotcha of well we've improved every year, it will keep happening! But thats not how this works.
SirKillalot
Registered User
Remember Eichel rides of being 2nd overall and being traded to a contender that in the end won the cup. I agree that Eichel is a bit better, but its not a huge amount. He isn't as good as his 2nd overall / comparison with McDavid was thought to be. He is still a very good center, one I would say is elite, but objectively Larkin isn't a lot behind.
Of course most would choose Eichel above Larkin, especially after he got traded from the Sabres.
SirKillalot
Registered User
Yeah I would have liked to see them tank another season.
I believe how Yzerman & the management saw it, that they didn't want players losing their motivation per se. As it could confidence killer as well. Thus why they signed veterans to try being more and more competitive in matches, learning to fight in tight matches and build on that. At some stage that is got to side step or regress, as its not going up every year, this year looks to be that year, where its still development among the players in the current team, but more so development among those projected to be in it 1-2-3 years from now.
Red Wings fans continue to use the word be in the playoffs, a true story: Detroit was big team on Lidström's timeline. We continue the same concept. We need few correct trades 2024-25 and previously summer draft to 2025-26.
Pavels Dog
Registered User
I don't think that changes the conclusion.
That was the point of the question.
Golden_Jet
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I was just saying, the guy who wrote the tweet, is not the smartest fish in the ocean.
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I am not a fan of a perpetual tank, but it certainly would have made sense to remain a bottom feeder through the 2023 draft.
Knowing how Yzerman operates I think the Larkin factor was likely a big part to the equation. SFY clearly values character and salary structure, and in that regards Larkin is an important piece. Not that no one will ever make more than he does, but it his contract set a benchmark, and he ended up getting MO and Raymond done on favorable terms.
They probably also felt with the 23 draft they were going to get someone they liked, and they do like Danielson, a lot (not to mention ASP at 15).
thekernel
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- Apr 11, 2011
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10 years is a hilarious stretch of time to make your point with. Connor McDavid hasn't even been in the league 10 years. In the last 10 years Vegas went from not even existing to winning a championship
So far the Red Wings cope in this thread has been:
-They might be relevant in ten years, let Stevie Y cook!
-The rebuild didn't start until Yzerman took over, so the prior years out of the playoffs don't count...
-...but the team wasn't planning to make the playoffs until 2027 anyway, so whatever!
-But watch out, Detroit FOR SURESIES have three #1 D on the way! They also don't need to tank more because...
-1st overall picks are for teams who never win anything! (except like Colorado, Tampa, and Chicago but okay)
What will the new excuses be if they lose to San Jose tonight? Stay tuned!
Czechboy
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Another one is all the mock rosters for best on best Olympics and 4 nations cup. Eichel is on every single roster. Larkin is not. He's on about 50% of them (I do think he's a great player) and on line 4 if at all.
Checks notes:
The 5 years prior to drafting McDavid the Oilers top picks were 3rd, 7th, 1st, 1st, and 1st.
14 years after the first 1OA pick they made the Stanley Cup Final.
Vegas is also a curious example. Their initial run to the SCF was done with a team of castoffs, suggesting that it is possible to compete for SC's with a less "top heavy" roster than has been the trend (Boston and St. Louis being other examples).
Roughly 20 years into the cap era, it is now standard for young stars to follow up the ELC by getting 8 year major deals. There is no guarantee that the model that has worked the last decade (and longer) is the best way going forward.
What continues to be most fascinating though: why are so many HF posters triggered by a segment of Red Wing fans' views of Steve Yzerman. While I am sure you can find a post somewhere, I don't recall seeing anyone saying the Yzerman rebuild is some kind of slam dunk. We just happen to understand the Red Wing and SFY philosophy, that the jury is out, but there is a path to success.
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SirKillalot
Registered User
And US have won how many tournaments?
Last 3 seasons + start of this one:
Jack Eichel 182 games - 77 goals - 110 assists = 187 points
+/- of +41 on a contender
11 GWG, 3 SHP, 16 PPG, 55 PPP
Dylan Larkin 236 games - 106 goals - 124 assists = 230 points
+/- of -26 on a rebuild / up to bubble team
16 GWG, 4 SHP, 42 PPG, 70 PPP
Eichel is better and playing on a better team. But to say its a massive difference at this current time, has more to do with the Eichel hype of being 2nd overall and what he was expected to do vs. what he has done and that he had a better start to his career obviously.
Put Eichel on Detroit and Larkin on Vegas in these seasons and I don't think you'd get much difference other than it being reversed, maybe Eichel will upheld his point total and Larkin do better. That is the slight difference.
Playoffs impossible to tell, waiting until Larkin is on a good enough team.
norrisnick
The best...
- Apr 14, 2005
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KirkAlbuquerque
#WeNeverGetAGoodCoach
Dotter
THE ATHLETIC IS GARBAGE
That's a fancy way of saying they are only 2 points apart so far in this early season. Lol
They both suck equally. Difference is DRWs have a top 5 prospect pool and OTT is hovering around 30th. Poooooooop poo.
Golden_Jet
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Ok then , if that’s the case the xGA% is worse than he posted, since he sorted the xG% column. As the pairing is worse if sorted by xGA%
So ya not the smartest dude.
Golden_Jet
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- Sep 21, 2005
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I just wanted to show what you said was wrong that it looked like they were going to draft 7th overall, and your team would be drafting ahead of the Sens. Nothing more to it.
If it’s so early in the season as you say, why even bring it up
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