Detroit Red Wings: 2019 and Beyond

[ArGarBarGar]

Alright, with the discussion about Holland's past decisions and what led up to this point with the team, I feel we should be having a discussion about what this team is currently and how far away we are from the end goal (and I am sure there are some disagreements as to what that end goal should specifically be).

Right now the team is at its lowest point, and going forward I am not convinced we have hit rock bottom yet. Zetterberg is going to get worse from here on out, Larkin is progressing but has not shown if he can completely fill the void that will be left by Zetterberg either retiring or losing impact as a player, Mantha and Athanasiou are somewhat of a wildcard from my perspective because of the "work ethic" issues some have had, we do not have a goaltender for the future, and coaching has been a hot topic all season. As far as the prospects we already have that will be coming up, other than Bertuzzi I have no clue what kind of impact we should be expecting in the next couple years, and I think it is a more reasonable assumption that they are not going to be enough in their rookie seasons to make the team better than they are now.

That isn't even discussing the roster players who are in the middle like Nyquist, Helm, Abdelkader, Ericsson, Dekeyser who I don't even know what category to put them in. I don't particularly want any of them long term for the money they are being paid but I don't see any of them other than maybe Nyquist leaving the team, meaning there isn't a lot of wiggle room other than the new "sign a free agent then trade them the same season" strategy.

So where do we go from here? What do we still need to make the right team?

Click to read more...

 

[kliq]

I don't consider this a low point, for me that was 2014 after Boston killed us.

I think this team has good depth, but lacks elite talent. We need a top pairing on D, and we need a legit #1 Center. Ideally those things come through the draft, but for us to become a contender again, those are the 3 major things we need IMO.

I think the dream scenario is we win the lottery and acquire Dahlin, then we sign JT in the off-season. I think the realistic scenario is we draft Little Svech or Bouchard and keep hoping Larkin turns into that #1 C.

 

[WingedWheel1987]

They need a new core. Larkin is the only player that you hope could end up being a core player, but I doubt it.

I do agree that they haven’t bottomed out yet. Zetterberg’s retirement will see them at their lowest point.

FA isn’t really viable when you consider the quantity and quality of players the Wings need.

The only realistic option is to draft in the top three for the next 3-5 years and hope for the best.

 

[kliq]

They need a new core. Larkin is the only player that you hope could end up being a core player, but I doubt it.

I do agree that they haven’t bottomed out yet. Zetterberg’s retirement will see them at their lowest point.

FA isn’t really viable when you consider the quantity and quality of players the Wings need.

The only realistic option is to draft in the top three for the next 3-5 years and hope for the best.

I assume you mean "core" equals elite? Or are you simply saying all are players suck in general?

 

[WingedWheel1987]

Core is your foundational players that you build around. They are your best players. For example, players like Anthony Mantha and AA are not good enough to ever be core players. They are spare parts that you jettison when they get too expensive.

But yes most of your core needs to be elite.

 

[jkutswings]

I assume you mean "core" equals elite? Or are you simply saying all are players suck in general?

I would say that "core" is the 3-5 players that ultimately form the most important foundation of a (hopefully championship caliber) team. Typically that's some combination of your top 2 centers, top 2 defensemen, top 1-2 wingers, and starting goalie.

Right now, I'd agree that Larkin is the only roster player even in that conversation. I could see Mantha and Bertuzzi eventually becoming awesome support pieces, but they'd have to either transplant Larkin's motor into Mantha, or graft Mantha's skill set on to Bertuzzi, to get either of those guys impactful enough to be part of the core as a winger.

It would be absolutely huge to find even a 1B defenseman in this draft. They might stumble into a goalie in free agency that really clicks, and they might continue to have good returns on drafting forwards in middle to later rounds, but if at least one really good blue liner doesn't come from a 1st round pick, I'm not sure they'll find one anywhere else.

 

[Frk It]

Thank you for this...

I think puck moving defenseman and puck possession forwards are the biggest needs for the future. If we can add some of these prospects to what we currently have, we could round this out into a good team. Probably will take AT LEAST 2-3 drafts, though. With some lottery luck we could pull it off MAYBE in 2 years, but then we would need to let the guys develop.

 

[kliq]

I would say that "core" is the 3-5 players that ultimately form the most important foundation of a (hopefully championship caliber) team. Typically that's some combination of your top 2 centers, top 2 defensemen, top 1-2 wingers, and starting goalie.

Right now, I'd agree that Larkin is the only roster player even in that conversation. I could see Mantha and Bertuzzi eventually becoming awesome support pieces, but they'd have to either transplant Larkin's motor into Mantha, or graft Mantha's skill set on to Bertuzzi, to get either of those guys impactful enough to be part of the core as a winger.

It would be absolutely huge to find even a 1B defenseman in this draft. They might stumble into a goalie in free agency that really clicks, and they might continue to have good returns on drafting forwards in middle to later rounds, but if at least one really good blue liner doesn't come from a 1st round pick, I'm not sure they'll find one anywhere else.

I would say I agree with most of this. I do think Mantha will be a core piece though and I think he will compliment a good Center similar to the way Franzen did it in 2008.

 

[kliq]

Thank you for this...

I think puck moving defenseman and puck possession forwards are the biggest needs for the future. If we can add some of these prospects to what we currently have, we could round this out into a good team. Probably will take AT LEAST 2-3 drafts, though. With some lottery luck we could pull it off MAYBE in 2 years, but then we would need to let the guys develop.

I also think that the development/lack of development of Hronek/Chow is vital to how long it takes. If they are both top 4 guys, this happens sooner then later. If they are more Sprouls and XO's, then this will take quite a few more years.

 

[Frk It]

edit - too hard to guess future lines @ this point

 

[jkutswings]

...puck moving defenseman and puck possession forwards are the biggest needs...

They should put this on a plaque, and make it a daily pledge repeated by anybody working on anything draft related for the foreseeable future.

 

[Winger98]

That isn't even discussing the roster players who are in the middle like Nyquist, Helm, Abdelkader, Ericsson, Dekeyser who I don't even know what category to put them in. I don't particularly want any of them long term for the money they are being paid but I don't see any of them other than maybe Nyquist leaving the team, meaning there isn't a lot of wiggle room other than the new "sign a free agent then trade them the same season" strategy.

So where do we go from here? What do we still need to make the right team?

Add Nielsen to that list. Those are contracts that I think are essentially locked into place and, like you, I don't see them going anywhere in the near future outside of Nyquist. It clogs our lineup and our cap, restricting the ability to more aggressively pursue a rebuild. I still think this team under-performed a bit this year, and that it's really dumb luck if we draft higher than seventh. Which is what the next few years of this rebuild likely rests on: dumb luck. Maybe we win the lotto and get Dahlin, maybe Rasmussen becomes Kopitar 2.0, maybe Cholo is the next Keith. Or maybe they all end up being depth players and we draft somewhere around 7-10 the next few years, getting good players but not great and pushing us further out of the top draft spots.

 

[lomekian]

Ultimately, I think this is one of the few wings discussions where most will be on a similar page.

We all know that the primary issue is a lack of top end talent up front and the lack of even remotely first pairing d-men. Goalie is less of an immediate issue as drafting and even signing goalies is generally a crap shoot unless you are prepared to go as early as a MAF or Price.

Up front, between kids and vets we know that at worst we have a good 2nd, 3rd & 4th line. Larkin might yet become a 1C, but he's deffo a 2nd line anchor at worst. It doesn't look like Mantha is going to maximise his gifts, and predicting Rasmussen at this stage is still very difficult. On the back line Cholowski and Hronek look like plausible 2nd pairing D at this stage, but we've no bankers.

So the question has to be, how do we get top 3 forwards or top pairing D. We might fill the odd hole through FA, but realistically it's going to be the draft. Unless we get lucky with the lottery or with or picks, this will take a while.

We simply don't have the trade chips to stock up on high picks without trading away the players we need to base any rebuild on as things stand. The lottery system increasingly gives less guaranteed returns for tanking, so regardless of who is GM, I don't know what other options are available beyond what KH is doing now...bar hoping a new coach can boost the trade values of a few of our players.

We've just got to keep stocking up on picks, pick up the odd FA for future trade bait and to aid the kids

 

[njx9]

I also think that the development/lack of development of Hronek/Chow is vital to how long it takes. If they are both top 4 guys, this happens sooner then later. If they are more Sprouls and XO's, then this will take quite a few more years.

I think one has to be at least capable of playing as a top 2 guy. If they're both 2nd pairing, I don't think we're significantly better off than if they're both XO (I mean, barring a scenario where we strike gold on two D in this draft).

 

[Marky9er]

How can we exploit Carolina's RFA's/cheap owner?

 

[Ezekial]

How can we exploit Carolina's RFA's/cheap owner?

They have a new owner.

 

[Marky9er]

They have a new owner.

I'm out of ideas.

 

[TheOtherOne]

I expect just about everyone to disagree with my prediction, but what the hell, I'll make it anyway.

We get a good #1 and #2 D through draft and/or trade this offseason. That immediately makes everything look better. We're a bubble team in 18/19. Young guys improve, I expect a good number of changes (probably coach and goalie for 2) but they are all relatively minor next to the 1/2Ds. We are a competitive playoff team in 19/20 and have legit shots at finals sometimes within the next several years.

Gogo DRW go.

 

[Orthodox Caveman]

We ideally could use another elite forward and an elite #1 defenseman. However, I feel like there's an impatience and hastiness about players like Larkin and Mantha. Larkin just put up 60 points in his 3rd year on a bad team. Mantha has kept his ppg pace and is near 50 points while playing noticeably passive. Look at where those players were drafted and imagine them with 1 or 2 more elite players to help out the top 6. We very likely have Rasmussen stepping in next season. Put 2 of Tavares/Svechnikov/Wahlstrom/Hughes and you have a pretty strong forward group. I think we can build around Larkin. Look at Nashville, they have several 60 pt forwards but their talent is very spread out. It's not likely nor imperative that we attain a generational #1 center to get back to contender status. We just need more picks in the top 5-10.

A top 10 defenseman picked in this upcoming draft would be a big step as Cholowski and Hronek need to slot in to the top 4 with that pick, should we go for a defenseman. Dekeyser would still round out the top 4 down the road.

I'm curious if we move those 3 picks around the late 1st, early 2nd to take another mid 1st.

 

[Frk It]

We ideally could use another elite forward and an elite #1 defenseman. However, I feel like there's an impatience and hastiness about players like Larkin and Mantha. Larkin just put up 60 points in his 3rd year on a bad team. Mantha has kept his ppg pace and is near 50 points while playing noticeably passive. Look at where those players were drafted and imagine them with 1 or 2 more elite players to help out the top 6. We very likely have Rasmussen stepping in next season. Put 2 of Tavares/Svechnikov/Wahlstrom/Hughes and you have a pretty strong forward group. I think we can build around Larkin.

The fact that Larkin is already flirting with 1C production at age 21 is honestly awesome. It makes me very happy.

But if we are talking about becoming a contending team again, you really need a big time 1C. Like top 5 player level guy. I think ideally we want to be in a position where Larkin could be a #1 on a bunch of other teams, but we have the luxury of slotting him as your #2. I know that's a very ambitious way of thinking, but I am looking at it from that perspective.

I also think that the development/lack of development of Hronek/Chow is vital to how long it takes. If they are both top 4 guys, this happens sooner then later. If they are more Sprouls and XO's, then this will take quite a few more years.

Absolutely.

 

[TheMule93]

Meh if we have great wingers Larkin could be good enough as a 1C. Look at what Chicago did with Toews who has hit 70 points once.

 

[Orthodox Caveman]

The fact that Larkin is already flirting with 1C production at age 21 is honestly awesome. It makes me very happy.

But if we are talking about becoming a contending team again, you really need a big time 1C. Like top 5 player level guy. I think ideally we want to be in a position where Larkin could be a #1 on a bunch of other teams, but we have the luxury of slotting him as your #2. I know that's a very ambitious way of thinking, but I am looking at it from that perspective.

But realistically are we going to draft a center better than Larkin in the near future? Not likely we'll win Jack Hughes next year, which is why I brought up Nashville...Johansen and Turris are their top centers. It's their wingers and defenseman who are putting up more points, atleast this year.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Can't really make much of an educated guess since there are so many possible scenarios. Draft lottery should make us a little bit wiser but still a lot depends on the development of guys like Rasmussen, Cholowski and Hronek. And on whether we are seeing the ceiling of Larkin, Mantha, Bertuzzi and AA or if any or all of them can keep improving. And on whether Svech is a top 6 player or bottom 6. And on what Hicketts is. And on what Saarijarvi is. And on if Larsson or Petruzzeli can be our goalie of the future. And .. and.. and.. and.....

But if we are talking about becoming a contending team again, you really need a big time 1C. Like top 5 player level guy. I think ideally we want to be in a position where Larkin could be a #1 on a bunch of other teams, but we have the luxury of slotting him as your #2. I know that's a very ambitious way of thinking, but I am looking at it from that perspective.

6 Centers have more ES assists than Larkin this season:

McDavid, Stamkos, Giroux, Draisatl, Barkov and Barzal.

He has 10 more ES assists than Toews has ever had in a season. Now that's just assists and maybe this year will be an anomaly, but even going by total ESP Larkin looks really good. I absolutely think he can be a #1C in the mold of Bergeron and Toews. Won't win scoring titles, but can score 60-70 points and be a strong defensive C.

 

[Flowah]

Larkin will be a 1C if he's not already. His production was hard-earned this season and it's some damn good production for a #15 pick on this team of all teams. He's shown he can score. This season he showed he could be a setup guy who can slow the game down or play with speed. And he wasn't playing with Z, he was carrying his own line. Obviously you'd love someone of a Matthews level, but I think give the kid a couple more years, give him a decent team and he can be a cup winning 1C. The biggest concern on forward is that Z is still pulling 19+ minutes a night and a 1/2C and obviously he's gone within a year or two at the most. Who picks up that slack? Nielsen? AA? Ras? Who's our next top6 C? For this season and probably next season we're sort of okay on forward.

The defense is where we're really, really, lacking. Everyone knows that. We better be targeting that hard.

 

[Frk It]

But realistically are we going to draft a center better than Larkin in the near future? Not likely we'll win Jack Hughes next year, which is why I brought up Nashville...Johansen and Turris are their top centers. It's their wingers and defenseman who are putting up more points, atleast this year.

Didn’t say it was easy, but it’s probably necessary to become a contender again. Depends what your goal is I guess.

I see a bunch of good centers next year. And we are going to need one of those high picks eventually.