Tak7
Registered User
Still more noticeable.
Small sample size, and I'm sure Ritchie will turn things around and trend closer towards the 30-point player the Leafs thought they were signing.
Dead Money
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Still more noticeable.
Small sample size, and I'm sure Ritchie will turn things around and trend closer towards the 30-point player the Leafs thought they were signing.
Zonk
Registered User
- Jul 2, 2012
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Great post. Agree with everything you said except the statement that we don't need to trade anyone this year. When Mikheyev comes off of LTIR, Leafs will have 13 F and 7 D and will be roughly 800K over the salary cap. We will need to remove a forward from the roster. I would be tempted to trade Ritchie, but we have no one else with his combination of size and toughness. IMO Mikheyev and Engvall are similar players and one of them will have to go.
Commander Clueless
Apathy of the Leaf
- Sep 10, 2008
- 15,989
- 4,012
Mrazek and Ritchie need more time. While I wasn't a fan of either signing, it's still early.
Mrazek has at least been good when available to play.
Mikheyev is worth his cap.
Kerfoot is decent. Are there better options at $3.5M? Probably, but not easily available at this point in time (Yes, yes McCann....we all wanted McCann to stay).
Mrazek has at least been good when available to play.
Mikheyev is worth his cap.
Kerfoot is decent. Are there better options at $3.5M? Probably, but not easily available at this point in time (Yes, yes McCann....we all wanted McCann to stay).
Brown Dog
Registered User
- Jun 23, 2007
- 5,854
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The problem with Mrazek is that we presumably paid him more than anyone else would've wanted to. So I don't see why there would be any trade suitors for him in a world where he is bumped to backup status by Campbell's superior play (which is the scenario where Mrazek gets moved).
Dubas should've given Jack the Mrazek money on an extension last off-season and signed a 1B or veteran backup on a one-year deal. I can appreciate Dubas wanting Jack to "prove it" with a full season, but it seems likely that doing so opens us up to losing Jack in free agency next off-season.
I say this as a believer in Soup.
ya i Hear ya, but I still think the timeline for Micheyev is far out. If Liljegren continues to hold down the fort we could also move Holl and call up Mennel in place of him at 7D. That would be a net savings of 1.25AAv.
There will be plenty of things we can do at that time.
We always find a way to make the money work
Zonk
Registered User
- Jul 2, 2012
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I agree. There is always a way to make the money work. I have to laugh at all the posters who are constantly convinced that Toronto/Tampa/Etc are in cap hell and then get mad when the team finds a solution.
Given our cap distribution, Dubas has essentially structured our team so that we cannot afford that middle class of player anymore. We have the Marner, Matthers, Tavares, Nylander, Rielly level players and then entry level, journey man level player.
I think Mrazek sample size is extremely small and he is probably worth in and around what we signed him for. I think all the guys are not on offensive contracts per se. I just think given how things are, Ritchie at $2.5 million looks terrible when compared to Bunting at $950,000. I think same thing with Kerfoot, imo he is comparable to players like Kampf and Kase who are at $1.25 million. Given the comparison, $3.5 looks a little rich.
I know it would never shake out like this but I would love it if the big guys were split up. For what Matthews and Marner see themselves as, they should be able to turn average players into great players. Crosby has no problem doing that. Neither should Matthews and Marner.
Bunting-Matthews-Kase
Ritchie-Tavares-Nylander
Engvall-Kampf-Marner
Simmonds-Kerfoot-Speeza
I think Mrazek sample size is extremely small and he is probably worth in and around what we signed him for. I think all the guys are not on offensive contracts per se. I just think given how things are, Ritchie at $2.5 million looks terrible when compared to Bunting at $950,000. I think same thing with Kerfoot, imo he is comparable to players like Kampf and Kase who are at $1.25 million. Given the comparison, $3.5 looks a little rich.
I know it would never shake out like this but I would love it if the big guys were split up. For what Matthews and Marner see themselves as, they should be able to turn average players into great players. Crosby has no problem doing that. Neither should Matthews and Marner.
Bunting-Matthews-Kase
Ritchie-Tavares-Nylander
Engvall-Kampf-Marner
Simmonds-Kerfoot-Speeza
Mickey Marner
Registered User
I don't think any of those guys solve our money issue. If anything, we need more money to spend on depth, not less.
The Podium
Registered User
The entire NHL is phasing out the middle class of players. Look around the league, stars are getting paid everywhere and everyone else is getting penny pinched.
Ya, for sure. Part of our continual need to perform cap gymnastics were self induced and some were a result of things out of Kyle's control. Ultimately this has just been the case ever since the JT signing + Flat Cap Pandemic.
But credit to KD and Pridham, they've always found a way to ice a very competitive roster. People will always shit on this management group by referencing their inability to improve the team and how that is why we have not had post season success. But in actuality our lack of success has very little to do with that, but more so our star players going absent when it matters the most. Sure you could ice a roster like NYI, wherein the sum is greater than all of its parts. That roster is entirely dependent on the structure implemented, and more importantly enforced by their HOF level coach. It's certainly a model that most average to shitty rosters try and follow, but only a handful are truly successful in that capacity. If you look at our Bottom 6 today, vs what is noted on daily faceoff as NYI bottom 6, I really am not seeing a massive difference in quality TBH.
TOR Bottom 6:
Engvall (1.25) - Kampf (1.5) - Kase (1.25)
Ritchie (2.5) - Spezza (750k) - Simmonds (900k)
total AAV: 8.15Million
NYI Bottom 6:
Parise (750k) - JGP (5) - Wahlstrom (894k)
Martin (1.5) - Cizikas (2.5) - Cluterbuck (3.5)
Total AAV: 14.14 Million
Of course NYI's is better, but is it monumentally better?? I just don't think so. The results are better, but how much of that is coaching??? To me, I'd say a lot. If not entirely. Point being, the difference between NYI and TOR is not the construction of our bottom 6. I can almost guarantee you that NYI would be just as good a team with swapping our bottom 6's out.
for context, here is the line productions for all of those 4 lines in all situations so far this year:
3rd line Leafs: TOI= 68:22
3rd line NYI: TOI= 45:46
4th line Leafs: TOI= 34:12
4th Line NYI - TOI= 40:04
I'm not seeing a 6 million dollar difference in GF/GA between our bottom 6 to NYI's bottom 6 (AKA the best model in the world). People can refer to Dubas Supporters as analytic losers all they want, but when it comes down to GF:GA ratio, there really is nothing "fancy" about that. I am not referring to the expected, I am referring to the tangible.
long story long, they have a phenomenal coaching staff that knows their teams limitations, and plays within a structure better than any team in the NHL.
Our roster construction is fine. We are not NYI's bottom 6 away from being the best team in the NHL. If we want to be an elite team, we need to play within a structure night in and night out. Our roster construction is more than fine, and always has been under Kyle IMO.
ShaneFalco
Registered User
If your star players disappear when it matter that points to roster construction. GM's don't get a free pass because their players fail to perform in the big games or why fire any GM ever? Wrong mix of players
genk
Registered User
- Nov 15, 2015
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Mrazek has literally played one and a half games. People need to calm their tits. Jesus Christ lol
not trying to insinuate that the GM is free of blame.
The narrative surrounding Dubas and the lack of success for the Leafs has been largely surrounded by the cap construction of this team. If you want to argue the contrary, just think to yourself how many times you've hear "4 players making 40 million".
You could literally say those 5 words to any hockey fan in the NHL and they'd know exactly what 4 players and what team they play on. Instantly.
If people want to shit on KD for having faith in Auston, Mitch, Willy, and JT then fill your boots. Those are his 4 horses he is going to ride. 4 pretty f***ing good horses if you ask me. Is it entirely odd for Dubas to think these players would mentally mature year over year?? Did you not think so?
I've said it countless times on here. I think this past offseason is the first offseason where Kyle could/should have moved one of the 4. He chose to run it back. It's a ballsy decision. One that will be debated for a long time. I think there are valid arguments to be made to have moved Mitch this past off season. If this team fails in the same capacity they have always done, Kyle should be at fault for that. Because he had a logical reason to move on. He could have used that same logical reasoning to move on from Willy 2 years prior as well, but trusted the development of his talented player. I'd say that was a right call as of now.
Our depth is fine, in fact last year it was better than it had ever been. Our D was a top 5 D in the league and yet we still lost to a dumpster fire roster. Why? our core didn't show (except Willy and Mo).
I am not intentionally trying to dissolve KD of any blame. He deserves his fair share of blame. But in the hierarchy of people to "blame", I'd put the main focus on Mitch and Auston at the top of that list. We need them to elevate their games. If they continue to not do so in the moments that matter the most, and KD continues to keep the status quo, then I will gladly bow down to the KD haters of the world.
But in reality, the only logical time he could have moved on from either Mitch or Auston was this past offseason. He's made a lot of shrewd cap moves to make our team very good and has improved our roster year over year. With the exception of this years roster, I'd say our roster is worse this year than the year prior. But overall KD has done far more good than bad IMO
I think I could get behind this, but you're also not referancing why these moves were done. We had a bottom 10 defensive group for over a decade. We then added Muzzin and Brodie to solidify the back end. Which to some degree they have. We could have kept all of those players you mentioned to be better, but we'd not have as strong of a D-corp. Kind of robbing Peter to pay Paul if you ask me.
Not to mention Campbell
The Hanging Jowl
Registered User
- Apr 2, 2017
- 10,908
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Don't agree with Kerfoot. Otherwise, correct. No idea why Kerfoot gets so much hate on here. Here's a hard working, serviceable player that does a lot of good things.
ShaneFalco
Registered User
So far I'd agree. The third and 4th lines have no real identity
It's not just the playoffs either, although last year's loss to the habs was when I lost all faith and how this team is constructed. I could list a whole bunch of big games where the core doesn't show up, including JT's return to the Island. It will be a telling year for sure, and I think Dubas is just too emotionally involved with the big guns and gives them everything they want......with no results .....unless you want to hang your hat on the regular season
ShaneFalco
Registered User
Yeah I think he's been miscast. One of the few that shows up in the playoffs too
ShaneFalco
Registered User
kb
Registered User
- Aug 28, 2009
- 15,357
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Bunting + Ritchie = Hyman
Kerfoot + 1 year Barrie = Kadri
Kapanen = healthy rookie Mikheyev
Mrazek > Toronto Andersen
I get the arguments of Ritchie not being great right now and earning that 2.5, that said, overall Leafs Cap hit looks pretty good, for this year anyway. Both on offense and defense they appear to have pretty good depth without having to do anything. So whichever line he's on, as long as he is contributing and being impactful, 2.5 ain't that bad. Him & Simmonds especially together on that 4th line at times do create havoc for the opposing team.
Honestly I think our 3rd and 4th lines have played great for the most part. I think there is a clear identity on both lines TBH. 3rd line is a defensive shutdown line that for the most part plays to a neutral game script. They've also had some poor puck luck in the offensive zone that you'd expect to change based on their analytics. And ever since Ritchie was moved to the 4th line with Spezza and Simmonds, that line as seemingly hummed. Not because of Ritchie, but they really just seem to play hard minutes. Not one that I'd necessarily think would be a gem on paper, but they've done their job quite well IMO
But yes, I agree. There needs to be more than regular season success and individual accolades for this group.
I genuinely think that Kyle, Shanny, and Sheldon are not as emotionally attached to their core 4 as the media and fanbase suggest they are. It was very clear to me in the all or nothing doc that they are well aware of these mental hurdles that hold this team back. Moving the core 4 is, and always will be the last domino to fall. I totally understand what you're saying in losing faith in the core 4 and/or roster. I have plenty of doubts myself. But we really do owe it to ourselves to see this story unfold in its entirety. As painful as it may be.
For some, like yourself, the story of this core should have ended last offseason. I don't think that is an unfair stance at all. We have seen the same ending 5 straight years, why run it back? Totally get it. But I also see zero harm in running it back 1 more year. Mitch and Auston have consistently come back year over year as better players. Their biggest obstacle is and always has been the battle in between the ears. It's obviously wishful thinking, but maybe just maybe this is the area they see the most growth in this year. If they can get over the hump of winning 1 damn series, we may see an entirely different level of confidence than what we've grown accustomed to see.
The downside, we fall short once again like we always do, KD is removed from his duties, and the new management team cleans house and moves away from this core group 1 year later than a large portion of this fanbase would have liked. As a life long Leaf fan of over 30 years, what is 1 more year of disappointment? The potential gain is far more enticing than what has become a known disappointment. Regardless of how this season shakes out, I'll still be back next year wanting more.
Often times when we expect the least, we get the most. Sure that can be fools logic, but lets be real for a second. We are Leaf fans after all. We are fools.
For what it’s worth, this is speculation on my part, but I think the Leafs were done with Andersen one way or another. The decision to move on from him wasn’t really a cap decision as I see it. I think the all or nothing documentary gave a brief but possibly telling glimpse into things. Not only did they really not seem to get any specifics as to what was ailing Freddy, they also continually got no timetable for his return, while he would jump onto the ice for less than 5 mins and leave. Andersen, I think, quit on the team. Ultimately if they believed the player wanted to be here and could do the job, they could have found that 700k difference between him and Mrazek
Bingo.
This entire market wanted him gone before the end of his deal, and yet management is dumb for letting a player who clearly didn't want to be a Leaf anymore go...
I've got no ill will towards Freddy, and I'm honestly not shocked at his current success. I don't understand why he would have wanted to ever resign in TOR. He was always underappreciated, and it wasn't always his fault. He is a top 5 goalie in the right environment. CAR is just that. It would have never been the case in TOR.
But it is hilarious how the narrative is that we "lost Him for nothing" when if we turned the clock back a year more than half of this board would have been willing to put him on waivers lol
hotpaws
Registered User
- Nov 21, 2009
- 22,109
- 6,697
so it's now Andy quit on the team , lol , it's seems in Leaf land the beleaf is if we can just make enough excuses for poor moves it'll lead us to a cup
