Player Discussion: Damon Severson

[BB88]

The question really is how good Severson (and Provorov) are defensively. Sure, having somebody actually able to move the puck or skate in any way, will be better than having Gavrikov/Peeke, etc. out there with Werenski, but, he really needs somebody BETTER than him defensively out there and he can focus more on offense. Severson (“stylistically”) seems somewhat like a better offensively, but, worse defensively Ryan Murray.

Again, I haven’t seen enough of either guy consistently enough with my own eyes to make a true judgement, but, believing Werenski could move to the right side with essentially no issues, Provorov seems like the more aggressive player than both and arguably a better defensive player than Severson, and possibly Werenski. He seems like the better type of defenseman, the better fit, with Werenski.

Severson is a one year bridge for the 1RD role

 

[CBJx614]

Severson is a one year bridge for the 1RD role

Exactly. A 1D doesn't get paid 6M. Just look at Werenski. He's paid like a middle pairing Dman. It's just a longer deal than we're used to seeing.

 

[Xoggz22]

I'm interested to see how the system Babcock employs impacts all players on this team. If he continues with a puck possession approach that should help the overall defensive play. When you have the puck you aren't defending. And if the game Severson plays is more of a possession/offensive game, then I think that supports the Babcock system. I'm more interested in the next 2 years and most GMs, while of course they look at the full length, most, will look more closely at the next 3-4 as opposed to years 7 and 8 (in this case)

 

[Doggy]

Seversen has just made a Top Ten list. #5 on Dom Luszczyszyn's list of worst NHL records contracts. We can all bash Dom like usual but he isn't wrong on this.

As an aside, Seth Jones, PLD and Josh Anderson are honorable mentions. and Seth Jones made the top ten as well.

 

[DoingItCoolKiwi]

Seversen has just made a Top Ten list. #5 on Dom Luszczyszyn's list of worst NHL records. We can all bash Dom like usual but he isn't wrong on this.

As an aside, Seth Jones, PLD and Josh Anderson are honorable mentions.

Weird since he still had the best 5v5 xG% rates in the team. Guess his age and with 7 years left absolutely kill him.

But I'm not too mad right now since at least he has a positive influence on ice. Maybe I'll be eating my words in a couple of years tho

 

[CBJWerenski8]

Seversen has just made a Top Ten list. #5 on Dom Luszczyszyn's list of worst NHL records. We can all bash Dom like usual but he isn't wrong on this.

As an aside, Seth Jones, PLD and Josh Anderson are honorable mentions.

The term is an issue, and will be a bigger issue as he gets older, but I was satisfied with Severson for the most part.

I guess I can understand the line of thinking of worst contracts but his is not even the worst on the team.

 

[squashmaple]

I don't know why we continue to accept anything Dom says as gospel when his models' flaws have been pointed out over and over again including by the twerp himself. Dom was just in the right place at the right time when The Athletic was forming, and any other of the public stats guys could do his job just as well.

 

[DoingItCoolKiwi]

I don't know why we continue to accept anything Dom says as gospel when his models' flaws have been pointed out over and over again including by the twerp himself. Dom was just in the right place at the right time when The Athletic was forming, and any other of the public stats guys could do his job just as well.

His strength is presenting the data in an easily readable manner. Makes sense that he's a successful writer, rather than a backroom analyst

 

[squashmaple]

His strength is presenting the data in an easily readable manner. Makes sense that he's a successful writer, rather than a backroom analyst

You know what? I will give him that. His graphics are top-notch, and he does a good job of explaining them in his text. I often don't agree with his models (built on lacking public data as they are) and I think he's a complete dick, but I will agree with you on this.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

Seversen has just made a Top Ten list. #5 on Dom Luszczyszyn's list of worst NHL records. We can all bash Dom like usual but he isn't wrong on this.

As an aside, Seth Jones, PLD and Josh Anderson are honorable mentions.

contracts?

 

[Cyclones Rock]

Severson, Gaudreau, Laine and Merzlikins could reasonably be put on a worst 32 contracts list in the NHL. The CBJ return on these "investments" has been south of piss poor.

An average team would have one on this list. Good job, Jarmo!

Waddell did not inherit a good situation with the CBJ and it's going to take quite a while to get beyond a few of the major blankups of Jarmo & Co.

 

[Doggy]

contracts?

Yes, contracts...sorry and thanks.

 

[Doggy]

I don't know why we continue to accept anything Dom says as gospel when his models' flaws have been pointed out over and over again including by the twerp himself. Dom was just in the right place at the right time when The Athletic was forming, and any other of the public stats guys could do his job just as well.

No model is going to be perfect and I pissed and moaned over Dom's models when he projected us to miss the playoffs and be worse in Lars second season that we did in his first season. That in spite of adding Johnny G. I thought he just hated us and I had every argument why he should go jump in a lake. Then we sucked it up that year and realized that his models might not be perfect but they also are objective, they are not designed to be blades against any team or player. There is merit to them.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

Yes, contracts...sorry and thanks.

Everyone else just figured it out and went with it but it was bugging me!

 

[Doggy]

Everyone else just figured it out and went with it but it was bugging me!

As Francis says: "You just made the list buddy"

 

[Indy18]

I don't know why we continue to accept anything Dom says as gospel when his models' flaws have been pointed out over and over again including by the twerp himself. Dom was just in the right place at the right time when The Athletic was forming, and any other of the public stats guys could do his job just as well.

If Dom's model has its way every dman in the league would be making league minimum unless they are a pure offensive type. His model is extremely biased towards offense.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

Weird since he still had the best 5v5 xG% rates in the team. Guess his age and with 7 years left absolutely kill him.

nah, it's that dom's model doesn't do a good job of isolating individual player impact from team-wide environmental performance factors, particularly with defensemen.

in 22-23, he was a luxury piece on a team stacked with stars that played an extremely analytics-friendly style. dom's model said he was like a $11m player. not kidding.

now dom says he's a $3m player a year later. did a wizard take away 70% of his hockey talent? or did he go from a favorable environment to a harsh one? impossible to say, but he looked damn good to me last year.

can go ahead and add this to dom's greatest hits of underestimating team impact on big-minutes defensemen, along with:

• drew doughty suddenly being the worst defenseman in the league, coincidentally when the kings had a brutal down year, then suddenly became Good again once the kings started winning
• claiming there was no way brandon montour would be good in florida in any role, citing his numbers in heavy usage on two awful teams
• saying vladislav gavrikov was a replacement-level defenseman, only for him to immediately put up insane underlying numbers after going to LAK

playing big minutes on a shitty team is a nearly guaranteed recipe to be looked upon unfavorably by The Model.

 

[Crede777]

My issue with the Damon Severson analysis in Dom's article is that he is extrapolating based upon a single season- the first for Severson on the Jackets and one where the coaches changed days before training camp.

 

[MoeBartoli]

Diont know how precise Dom’s model is for Defensemen. But my eyes on the past season tell me Severson’s contract is too much money for too much term……Maybe (hopefully) another season with the team will yield a defensive system our players will better grasp and leave me feeling better about him.

 

[NotCommitted]

The Model.

known as "Das Model" in Germany

I'll get my coat.

In my defense, it's summer and I keep coming to HFboards out of habit and then wonder what on earth am I doing here

 

[VT]

known as "Das Model" in Germany

I'll get my coat.

In my defense, it's summer and I keep coming to HFboards out of habit and then wonder what on earth am I doing here

Depeche Mode, Camouflage, Alphaville, Kraftwerk...

 

[majormajor]

Severson, Gaudreau, Laine and Merzlikins could reasonably be put on a worst 32 contracts list in the NHL.

Any contract that is expiring in the next year or two and on a bad team with gobs of cap space isn't one of the worst 32 contracts. We have enough cap space to add a whole extra Laine, and scratch him and never even think about it. For us there is a very low opportunity cost to those deals.

For Severson and Gaudreau there could be a high opportunity cost in the back half of those deals, but at the same time I'm very willing to see how they look as the team matures. They're good players. Heck Dom said Severson was an $11m player a year ago!

 

[Viqsi]

If Dom's model has its way every dman in the league would be making league minimum unless they are a pure offensive type. His model is extremely biased towards offense.

It's more accurate to say that his model is strictly based on common publicly available measurables, and those are extremely offense-biased because that's literally all that's provided. And he's done f***-all to even acknowledge that weakness, let alone correct for it.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

Healthy scratched tonight.

I personally think that was a bit extreme. He hasn't been as good recently, but I dont think hes been scratch level.

 

[Cowumbus]

Healthy scratched tonight.

I personally think that was a bit extreme. He hasn't been as good recently, but I dont think hes been scratch level.

No. And even at his worst he’s much better than JJ. Severson and Christiansen as a bottom pair ain’t bad at all.