Player Discussion: Damon Severson

[cbjthrowaway]

I appreciate the detailed layout. I just disagree that he was the right player to spend that money on. And I have my doubts that the cap will go up that much. And if it does I don’t buy that the deal will look better. We seen this happen in the nba in 2016 when the cap went up and teams went crazy giving out huge deals to guys who didn’t deserve it and it crippled their cap for years. I do think he’ll help our power play and will be an improvement over what we had last year. I think he’ll be good with Babcock and his long stretch pass offense. But I can’t get past his horrible defense. I think that’s going to be a giant issue for us for years to come.

i totally get the defensive concerns but i still think he's an enormous net positive for the roster for the time being. he also fits an immediate need (partner for werenski) and a long-term need (veteran RHD who isn't a boat anchor to play with mateychuk/svozil after provorov leaves).

as far as him not being the right player to spend that money on, i don't think there's a viable alternative out there who could actually partner with werenski. the closest i could think of would be matt dumba, but i think severson is a far better player overall. the gap in quality between them is greater than the third rounder that they gave up to get severson.

 

[Sdrawkcab321]

i totally get the defensive concerns but i still think he's an enormous net positive for the roster for the time being. he also fits an immediate need (partner for werenski) and a long-term need (veteran RHD who isn't a boat anchor to play with mateychuk/svozil after provorov leaves).

as far as him not being the right player to spend that money on, i don't think there's a viable alternative out there who could actually partner with werenski. the closest i could think of would be matt dumba, but i think severson is a far better player overall. the gap in quality between them is greater than the third rounder that they gave up to get severson.

This is what I’m hoping doesn’t happen. If you watch a few devils games over the years and talk to devil fans they will tell you he plays much better on the lower lines. When he’s paired on top his defense because a huge issue. When he’s on the 3rd he’s a completely different player. I know he will start on the top line but I would hope Babcock figures out quickly that the top line isn’t the best for him.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

We all acknowledged there was a hole at top pairing RD. Nobody trusts Boqvist, Peeke, Blankenburg, or Gudbranson to do it full time.

Most believe Jiricek will be that guy one day. But most also thought it would be nice if we took our time with him and let HIM decide when he’s ready rather than just penciling him in.

Severson allows all of these guys to play in more comfortable roles. Is he better down the lineup than up? I won’t fight that, that’s what devils fans say and I don’t see why that’s wrong. But he’s an analytical darling who can play up in the lineup while we wait for Jiricek.

In 2-3 years he might be on the third pairing. While that’s not exactly wonderful from a contract standpoint, the cap will be going up, and I think he will age fine as his game isn’t built on speed or physicality.

Did we overpay? I can understand that argument especially after the going rate this summer for UFAs. However I will note he was listed as either the top player in UFA, or one of the top players, and he was going to get paid regardless by someone. 8 years is still pretty rich though

Do I care? Right now, no I do not. He fills an immediate need. He helps us out not only now but long term. And he’s not blocking anyone.

He’s going to be a good partner for Werenski while we wait for Jiricek. And if Jiricek hits, Severson will be a damn fine partner for Mateychuk or Svozil.

We noted so many times how our D can’t make easy passes or carry the puck out of the zone. Everything was always hectic and under fire. The puck was a hand grenade. It won’t be for Severson.

I was always fine with this move, even if it’s an overpayment, and I remain in that camp. I think he’ll be our version of Weegar, which I would love.

 

[Cyclones Rock]

I appreciate the detailed layout. I just disagree that he was the right player to spend that money on. And I have my doubts that the cap will go up that much. And if it does I don’t buy that the deal will look better. We seen this happen in the nba in 2016 when the cap went up and teams went crazy giving out huge deals to guys who didn’t deserve it and it crippled their cap for years. I do think he’ll help our power play and will be an improvement over what we had last year. I think he’ll be good with Babcock and his long stretch pass offense. But I can’t get past his horrible defense. I think that’s going to be a giant issue for us for years to come.

I know this stat has its limitations, but Severson has been at the bottom of the Devils +/- almost every year for dmen. Here's a cumulative look at him over the past 6 years. It's ugly.

NHL Stats

The official source for NHL Stats including skaters, goalies, teams stats and more.

www.nhl.com

This signing for 8 years is ludicrous. Severson looks like a stop gap offensive defenseman-not a long term key piece of a franchise-which is what a $50 million 8 year player should be.

I guess that's what happens when a GM who has to produce quickly is given full authority to sign long term contracts. The long term means nothing to him.

 

[majormajor]

I appreciate the detailed layout. I just disagree that he was the right player to spend that money on. And I have my doubts that the cap will go up that much. And if it does I don’t buy that the deal will look better. We seen this happen in the nba in 2016 when the cap went up and teams went crazy giving out huge deals to guys who didn’t deserve it and it crippled their cap for years. I do think he’ll help our power play and will be an improvement over what we had last year. I think he’ll be good with Babcock and his long stretch pass offense. But I can’t get past his horrible defense. I think that’s going to be a giant issue for us for years to come.

FWIW his defensive metrics are usually pretty good. It seems Severson does some things well enough defensively to make up for the brain farts. He can certainly get the puck out of the zone quickly. That all sounds similar to Weegar to me, just a bit below that.

Severson allows all of these guys to play in more comfortable roles. Is he better down the lineup than up? I won’t fight that, that’s what devils fans say and I don’t see why that’s wrong.

I'd be curious if those Devils fans have some greater basis to say that beyond just the player looking better in the last couple years. The whole Devils team improved and seemed to make a lot of players look better. Did Severson get top pair duties sometime in the last two years so we could assess that?

 

[cbjthrowaway]

This is what I’m hoping doesn’t happen. If you watch a few devils games over the years and talk to devil fans they will tell you he plays much better on the lower lines. When he’s paired on top his defense because a huge issue. When he’s on the 3rd he’s a completely different player. I know he will start on the top line but I would hope Babcock figures out quickly that the top line isn’t the best for him.

even so, he is far better equipped to play with werenski for the next year or two than any of the free agent alternatives or in-house options right now. the idea is that he's an improvement there this year and then a luxury on the second pair after jiricek breaks through.

I know this stat has its limitations, but Severson has been at the bottom of the Devils +/- almost every year for dmen. Here's a cumulative look at him over the past 6 years. It's ugly.

beyond the stat having limitations as you said, the issue here is sample size. the devils were very bad for a four-year stretch (18-19 through 21-22), the only guys who are in the green on that list either just got there (graves, marino, siegenthaler) in the last two years, played a very small amount of games (mermis, claeson) or both (brendan smith).

meanwhile severson played 444 games with the devils in that six-year stretch. that's nearly twice as many as the next highest guy (238). the entire top five if you sort by GP is heavily in the negative, and severson's tenure means most of his time overlapped with those guys (butcher, greene, subban, vatanen).

his place on that list is solely due to circumstance, not ability.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

I'd be curious if those Devils fans have some greater basis to say that beyond just the player looking better in the last couple years. The whole Devils team improved and seemed to make a lot of players look better. Did Severson get top pair duties sometime in the last two years so we could assess that?

the notion that severson is good on the third pair and bad on the first pair is based on correlation. as you said, the team got significantly better this year. his ice time was lower than it had been in the past.

worth noting, though, that he'd spent the last four years averaging over 22 minutes a night. no devils defenseman (not even hamilton) hit that mark this past season. severson was tied for fourth among their defensemen in ATOI this season (19:57) but just 12 seconds behind third place (siegenthaler). his advanced stats went NUTS. second only to hamilton.

people look at these three facts:

1. severson's ice time decreased by 2 minutes per game
2. severson's underlying numbers improved
3. the devils had their best season in a long time

…and they think that #1 is the cause of #2 and #3. in reality, #3 is the cause. severson went from being a good player playing huge minutes on an awful team to a good player playing second pair minutes (nominally on the third pair) on a really good team.

he's been a good player the whole time – the team around him improved. doesn't mean he can't play a big role on a good team that is constructed differently.

 

[Youngguns1380]

Seems like he is going to be a locker room guy - love his enthusiasm and attitude

 

[Cyclones Rock]

even so, he is far better equipped to play with werenski for the next year or two than any of the free agent alternatives or in-house options right now. the idea is that he's an improvement there this year and then a luxury on the second pair after jiricek breaks through.


beyond the stat having limitations as you said, the issue here is sample size. the devils were very bad for a four-year stretch (18-19 through 21-22), the only guys who are in the green on that list either just got there (graves, marino, siegenthaler) in the last two years, played a very small amount of games (mermis, claeson) or both (brendan smith).

meanwhile severson played 444 games with the devils in that six-year stretch. that's nearly twice as many as the next highest guy (238). the entire top five if you sort by GP is heavily in the negative, and severson's tenure means most of his time overlapped with those guys (butcher, greene, subban, vatanen).

his place on that list is solely due to circumstance, not ability.

Season-by-season it doesn't look any better. He's always at the bottom.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

Season-by-season it doesn't look any better. He's always at the bottom.

turns out when you're one of the only good players on a bad team, you end up getting destroyed in +/-. for example: drew doughty had the second worst +/- in the entire league in 2018-19, because he was playing 26+ minutes a night on a really bad team.

the devils finished in the bottom five in the league standings four years in a row, from 2018-19 through 2021-22. damon severson led their team in ATOI in all four of those seasons.

hell, damon severson had a better +/- than both dougie hamilton and jack hughes in 2021-22, while playing more minutes than both of those guys. it's a team stat, it means nothing on an individual skater basis.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

I for one am pumped about our short and long term future on D.

Werenski is a stud. Severson is very good. Provorov has recent history of fantastic play. There is untapped potential in all of Boqvist, Blankenburg, Bean, and Peeke. Jiricek, Svozil, and Mateychuk are sparkling D prospects.

This is way better than running into last year with..

Werenski-Boqvist
Gavrikov-Peeke
Bean-Gudbranson
Blankenburg

 

[Cyclones Rock]

turns out when you're one of the only good players on a bad team, you end up getting destroyed in +/-. for example: drew doughty had the second worst +/- in the entire league in 2018-19, because he was playing 26+ minutes a night on a really bad team.

the devils finished in the bottom five in the league standings four years in a row, from 2018-19 through 2021-22. damon severson led their team in ATOI in all four of those seasons.

hell, damon severson had a better +/- than both dougie hamilton and jack hughes in 2021-22, while playing more minutes than both of those guys. it's a team stat, it means nothing on an individual skater basis.

He's near the bottom every year. Outside of those years. It's pretty apparent that he's not a good defensive defenseman. But he'll have 8 years to improve upon that in Columbus. LOL. Or Cry Out Loud.

15-16

NHL Stats

The official source for NHL Stats including skaters, goalies, teams stats and more.

www.nhl.com

16-17

NHL Stats

The official source for NHL Stats including skaters, goalies, teams stats and more.

www.nhl.com

17-18

NHL Stats

The official source for NHL Stats including skaters, goalies, teams stats and more.

www.nhl.com

 

[GoJackets1]

An RD that skates well and can make extremely good breakout passes was exactly what the defense needed. We can argue all we want about the extra 2 years, but the fact is that the defense is vastly improved with Severson on it. Same with Provorov, while we're at it. Severson is also the style of defender that tends to continue to play well into his 30s.

Just because Jarmo signed the Gudbranson deal doesn't mean that every defenseman deal he makes is bad. That deal can exist in a vacuum. And can be bought out.

 

[majormajor]

He's near the bottom every year. Outside of those years. It's pretty apparent that he's not a good defensive defenseman. But he'll have 8 years to improve upon that in Columbus. LOL. Or Cry Out Loud.

15-16

NHL Stats

The official source for NHL Stats including skaters, goalies, teams stats and more.

www.nhl.com

16-17

NHL Stats

The official source for NHL Stats including skaters, goalies, teams stats and more.

www.nhl.com

17-18

NHL Stats

The official source for NHL Stats including skaters, goalies, teams stats and more.

www.nhl.com

I stopped listening at plus minus.

If you want to talk about defensive results look at goals against rates or expected goals against rates relative to teammates (GA/60 Rel and xGA/60 Rel).

 

[traffic cone]

He's near the bottom every year. Outside of those years. It's pretty apparent that he's not a good defensive defenseman. But he'll have 8 years to improve upon that in Columbus. LOL. Or Cry Out Loud.

15-16

NHL Stats

The official source for NHL Stats including skaters, goalies, teams stats and more.

www.nhl.com

16-17

NHL Stats

The official source for NHL Stats including skaters, goalies, teams stats and more.

www.nhl.com

17-18

NHL Stats

The official source for NHL Stats including skaters, goalies, teams stats and more.

www.nhl.com

Top d-men play the most minutes in a team. If the team sucks 95 out 100 times that top d-man is the one with the worst plus minus. It just doesn’t say anything about the actual ability of the player.

Mike Green lead the league in plus minus when Caps dominated. That should tell you enough about the stat - especially if you’re somehow trying to make the argument that plus minus means defensive ability.

 

[Xoggz22]

No amount of excuse making will convince me we needed to go to an 8th year. 6M for a future 3rd line d man who is a traffic cone on defense will get old very quickly. And that 6M won’t be a non factor when we need to resign our young core in 3-4 years.

So probably a good use of your time to be in this particular thread eh? You can probably save some headache and anxiety by just ignoring this one. Your call, of course, but why waste energy on the negative. Especially one that will go on for 8 full years!

 

[EspenK]

All of a sudden plus/minus is a big deal?

 

[Xoggz22]

All of a sudden plus/minus is a big deal?

Depends... are you a plus or a minus? Then I'll decide!

 

[Sdrawkcab321]

So probably a good use of your time to be in this particular thread eh? You can probably save some headache and anxiety by just ignoring this one. Your call, of course, but why waste energy on the negative. Especially one that will go on for 8 full years!

I mean this is hockeys future. If I can’t worried about the future of a hockey team here then where can I?

 

[BB88]

Honestly it’s a good thing they addressed the defense this summer.

The market& contract next summer are going to be crazy& as everyone know Columbus isn’t a top tier destination for players.

Now they have Provorov at a very reasonable 5M numbers and only 2 years left on term. Gives them either option to try to re-sign him at 28y or replace him with one of the prospects.
& even the bigger contract in Severson has very reasonable 6.25M cap hit.
I’d expect we’ll see quite a few longterm contracts to Dmen with a higher cap hit than that.

& the rumours have cap going up by 10M within the next 2 years making 6.25M even more reasonable.

 

[koteka]

the rumours have cap going up by 10M within the next 2 years making 6.25M even more reasonable.

I am very skeptical about this. Until the local cable money thing is figured out, I wouldnt count on large increases in cap.

 

[BB88]

I am very skeptical about this. Until the local cable money thing is figured out, I wouldnt count on large increases in cap.

It’s more due to the dept being paid

 

[cbjthrowaway]

He's near the bottom every year. Outside of those years. It's pretty apparent that he's not a good defensive defenseman. But he'll have 8 years to improve upon that in Columbus. LOL. Or Cry Out Loud.

he's quite good.

15-16

NHL Stats

The official source for NHL Stats including skaters, goalies, teams stats and more.

www.nhl.com

the devils were bad that year (7th in the metro) and severson was a 21-year-old with just 51 games under his belt. he played on their second pair with john moore of all people.

despite that, he had the third best +/- among full time defensemen on the devils. the two guys ahead of him: andy greene and adam larsson, who were two of the better defensemen in the league at the time.

once again, you need to consider the sample sizes. yes, it looks like he's 8th on the list, five of the guys ahead of him played fewer than 20 games (one of them played one single game, lol) and all played sheltered third pairing minutes.

16-17

NHL Stats

The official source for NHL Stats including skaters, goalies, teams stats and more.

www.nhl.com

the devils were the third worst team in the league this season. their leading scorer had 53 points. severson was tied for fifth with 31 points (tops among defensemen) and led the team in ice time.

i'm gonna repeat myself here: when you are the guy who gets the most ice time on an awful team, your +/- is going to be bad. conversely, when you get sheltered minutes on a good team, your +/- is going to be good.

and again: drew doughty was the second worst defenseman in the entire league a few years ago, because he played 26 minutes a night on a bottom-three team. mike green – who absolutely sucked defensively – led the league in +/- when he was with the capitals

it's a team stat. it's useless for evaluating individual players, even on the same team, because roles/deployment are so different.

17-18

NHL Stats

The official source for NHL Stats including skaters, goalies, teams stats and more.

www.nhl.com

severson was primarily paired with john moore, who was a bad fit for him as a partner judging by the microstats that season (severson was better when paired with other defensemen) – but moore's numbers were worse without severson than they were with him.

 

[Cyclones Rock]

he's quite good.

the devils were bad that year (7th in the metro) and severson was a 21-year-old with just 51 games under his belt. he played on their second pair with john moore of all people.

despite that, he had the third best +/- among full time defensemen on the devils. the two guys ahead of him: andy greene and adam larsson, who were two of the better defensemen in the league at the time.

once again, you need to consider the sample sizes. yes, it looks like he's 8th on the list, five of the guys ahead of him played fewer than 20 games (one of them played one single game, lol) and all played sheltered third pairing minutes.


the devils were the third worst team in the league this season. their leading scorer had 53 points. severson was tied for fifth with 31 points (tops among defensemen) and led the team in ice time.

i'm gonna repeat myself here: when you are the guy who gets the most ice time on an awful team, your +/- is going to be bad. conversely, when you get sheltered minutes on a good team, your +/- is going to be good.

and again: drew doughty was the second worst defenseman in the entire league a few years ago, because he played 26 minutes a night on a bottom-three team. mike green – who absolutely sucked defensively – led the league in +/- when he was with the capitals

it's a team stat. it's useless for evaluating individual players, even on the same team, because roles/deployment are so different.

severson was primarily paired with john moore, who was a bad fit for him as a partner judging by the microstats that season (severson was better when paired with other defensemen) – but moore's numbers were worse without severson than they were with him.

We'll have 8 years to evaluate him

I fully understand that it's just one measure. I get it. It just doesn't inspire confidence-in me, anyway.

I'm also opposed to max term deals with very few exceptions. This guy will have had 17 NHL seasons if he plays this contract to term. For a non star player, that is simply far too much term and age for my taste.

This deal reminds me of a buddy of mine who was obsessed with claiming racehorses. He'd make his mind up that he was going to attempt to claim (buy) a racehorse on a given day at a given track and he'd do it regardless of the quality of the horses available for claiming or if the horse he originally had his sights upon was scratched (taken out of the race by the owner/trainer for whatever reason). His purchases under this "model" resulted in buying mostly horrible horses that weren't worth a fraction of what he paid.

Now I'm not making a straight comparison with my buddy's impulsive horse shopping with this deal, but the deal reeks to me of "I've got to get something RIGHT NOW" from Jarmo. The 3rd longest tenured GM with a record like his has got to turn things around very quickly or he's out the door and likely to never be a GM with another NHL team again. So it's not surprising that he's willing to take on significant risk over the long term for possible short term gains.

I want to see Severson succeed. If he's what most of you guys think he is then he'll turn out to be a good signing-at least for some of the deal. And that's a good thing.

 

[thebus88]

The question really is how good Severson (and Provorov) are defensively. Sure, having somebody actually able to move the puck or skate in any way, will be better than having Gavrikov/Peeke, etc. out there with Werenski, but, he really needs somebody BETTER than him defensively out there and he can focus more on offense. Severson (“stylistically”) seems somewhat like a better offensively, but, worse defensively Ryan Murray.

Again, I haven’t seen enough of either guy consistently enough with my own eyes to make a true judgement, but, believing Werenski could move to the right side with essentially no issues, Provorov seems like the more aggressive player than both and arguably a better defensive player than Severson, and possibly Werenski. He seems like the better type of defenseman, the better fit, with Werenski.