Player Discussion: Damon Severson

[Monk]

Why did they switch numbers on Severson from 28 to 78??? Could that indicate a possible trade? I know I may be reaching but he has always been #28?

Where do you see that?

Columbus Blue Jackets 2024 - 2025 Roster | Columbus Blue Jackets

The official 2024 - 2025 roster of the Columbus Blue Jackets, including position, height, weight, date of birth, age, and birth place.

www.nhl.com

 

[Monk]

I'm happy about the Severson deal all things considered but the extra years on his deal are not a non-factor. Give me a break.

Look at the Vancouver Canucks who have drafted superstars and they can't even build a good team because of the bad contracts they're stuck with.

That's more or less the point I was making... all things considered is sorta the right way to think about it right? You can say "Good contract, but..." as much as you want, but if you didn't have the "but" you likely don't have the contract at all.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

I'm happy about the Severson deal all things considered but the extra years on his deal are not a non-factor. Give me a break.

i'm not saying it's a non-factor. i'm saying that the jackets are getting enormous surplus value even if they have to pay to get out of it early.

the upfront acquisition cost to get a similar player is exponentially higher than the total cost (upfront + back-end buyout or trade sweetener) to roll with severson. case in point, there's one defenseman out there with a VERY similar contract.

CBJ gets	CBJ gives
Damon Severson Age 29-35 seasons (7 years) $6.25m cap hit	Upfront cost: 2023 3rd Buyout of last year of deal - $1.7m cap hit in 30-31 ($3.4m savings) - $1.7m cap hit in 31-32 ($1.7m cost)
Ryan Pulock Age 29-35 seasons (7 years) $6.15m cap hit	Upfront cost: huge trade package - first round pick(s) - top prospect(s) - roster player(s) - additional asset(s) No buyout at the end of deal

not only do the jackets get a similar player for a fraction of the asset cost – even if they have to get out of the deal early – they can use those assets they saved to further improve the roster.

i get that people don't like the idea of having to buy out or pay to move a player, but the alternative was overpaying someone worse in free agency or paying a much bigger premium up front via trade in a seller's market.

they did extremely well here.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

Why did they switch numbers on Severson from 28 to 78??? Could that indicate a possible trade? I know I may be reaching but he has always been #28?

"hey we know we just signed you to the second eight-year deal in franchise history. the only other one we've ever done is for the only guy whose jersey is hanging in the rafters! crazy, right? anyways, you know that number you've worn for your entire career? well we're gonna need you to pick a new one."

 

[Youngguns1380]

Where do you see that?

View attachment 718303

Columbus Blue Jackets 2024 - 2025 Roster | Columbus Blue Jackets

The official 2024 - 2025 roster of the Columbus Blue Jackets, including position, height, weight, date of birth, age, and birth place.

www.nhl.com

 

[traffic cone]

78 is such a development camp number. But as long as he likes it.

 

[614 CBJ]

78 is such a development camp number. But as long as he likes it.

I think he wore it in Junior

wasn't able to get it with the Devils

 

[Youngguns1380]

He mentions a little about Babcock. Good interview and seems to reinforce a good work ethic and locker room guy.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

 

[ThisIsMyAlibi]

This was such a crazy contract. Oy vey.

 

[Xoggz22]

This was such a crazy contract. Oy vey.

Right? I'm very happy to have him in the fold. Really good top 4 guy locked in.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

two types of fans:

1. those who are worried about how their team's salary cap will look in 2031
2. those who are excited that their team just added a guy who can do this

he did this all the time in new jersey. he has one of the best first passes in the entire league.

it's going to get a lot easier to stop worrying about the last two years of his deal (zero bonus money, btw) after you see him hit johnny gaudreau on the far blueline with one of these bad boys.

 

[Johansen2Foligno]

Whoa! When did this happen? Also hearing that we landed on the Moon?

 

[Youngguns1380]

 

[CBJx614]

two types of fans:

1. those who are worried about how their team's salary cap will look in 2031
2. those who are excited that their team just added a guy who can do this

he did this all the time in new jersey. he has one of the best first passes in the entire league.

it's going to get a lot easier to stop worrying about the last two years of his deal (zero bonus money, btw) after you see him hit johnny gaudreau on the far blueline with one of these bad boys.

Reminds me of Murray, I still think about that stretch pass to Johansen from time to time. *sigh*

 

[Sdrawkcab321]

No amount of excuse making will convince me we needed to go to an 8th year. 6M for a future 3rd line d man who is a traffic cone on defense will get old very quickly. And that 6M won’t be a non factor when we need to resign our young core in 3-4 years.

 

[GoJackets1]

Reminds me of Murray, I still think about that stretch pass to Johansen from time to time. *sigh*

I watched that pass live and still don’t understand how it happened. Sheesh.

 

[Viqsi]

No amount of excuse making will convince me we needed to go to an 8th year. 6M for a future 3rd line d man who is a traffic cone on defense will get old very quickly. And that 6M won’t be a non factor when we need to resign our young core in 3-4 years.

So take away the 8th year and this goes from "terrible signing" to "good signing"?

 

[Sdrawkcab321]

So take away the 8th year and this goes from "terrible signing" to "good signing"?

No it’s still not good. But the 8th year was completely unnecessary. 6M per for a 29 year old traffic cone when we have 3-4 good young d men ready to come up is a bad signing. Especially a year after we just gave gudbranson that god awful 4M deal when we probably could have gotten him for half.

 

[Viqsi]

No it’s still not good. But the 8th year was completely unnecessary. 6M per for a 29 year old traffic cone when we have 3-4 good young d men ready to come up is a bad signing. Especially a year after we just gave gudbranson that god awful 4M deal when we probably could have gotten him for half.

So you don't care for Severson in general. Got it.

 

[Sdrawkcab321]

8 years and 6M of our cap spent on this…

 

[cbjthrowaway]

No amount of excuse making will convince me we needed to go to an 8th year. 6M for a future 3rd line d man who is a traffic cone on defense will get old very quickly. And that 6M won’t be a non factor when we need to resign our young core in 3-4 years.

i'll give it a shot.

in a vacuum, is six years preferable to eight? absolutely. but they can just treat it like a six year deal and get out of the deal after year 6, either via trade or buyout.

the opportunity cost of not getting severson here is either:

1. rushing jiricek into a top pair role at 19
2. putting boqvist on the top pair (too rich for him + bad fit with werenski)
3. putting peeke on the top pair (way too rich for him)
4. putting blankenburg on the top pair (injury prone)

…and getting severson allows them to trade at least one of boqvist/peeke (if not both eventually).

Acquisition	Total acquisition cost
Damon Severson - Fills biggest need - Six years - Market value contract Additional assets from: - Trading Peeke - Trading Boqvist	Up front cost - 2023 3rd round pick Deferred cost - $2.85m cap hit in 29-30 - $2.85m cap hit in 30-31 - $1.70m cap hit in 31-32 - $1.70m cap hit in 32-33 OR non-first round pick in early 2030s (trade)

the alternative to a buyout is trading him in the last two years of his deal. the picks they'll get from peeke/boqvist trades (which severson's acquisition enables) will be, at worst, a wash with whatever picks they give up in 2029-30.

but even if it comes to a buyout, that won't hurt their cap situation at all. the cap is projected to be $92 million by 2025-26. at that rate, it should be over $100m by 2029. it's not worth losing sleep over the possibility (not guarantee) of the jackets only having 98% of the cap to play with nine years from now.

in other words: the total cost with severson (cost to acquire + cost to jettison in six years) gets easily recouped by trades that can happen now that he's in the fold, or is paid in a very low percentage of the salary cap a very long time from now. the jackets come out ahead either way.

as for the more medium-term of needing to sign other guys… well, in 3-4 years they'll have:

• gudbranson off the books ($4m)
• elvis off the books ($5.4m)
• provorov off the books ($4.7m)
• jenner off the books ($3.7m)
• kuraly off the books ($2.5m)
• peeke off the books ($2.7m)
• boqvist off the books ($2.6m)
• bean off the books ($2.2m)

that's without considering laine or werenski – they're flush with wing + LHD prospects and can build around fantilli + jiricek, so it's not out of the question that they let those guys walk (or trade them for a haul of futures) to free up almost $20m of additional future cap.

they have three ELC years each for fantilli, jiricek and svozil. kent johnson has 10.2(c) status which will keep his next deal low. marchenko's a prime bridge candidate. sillinger's a low bridge candidate, too. mateychuk, del bel belluz and dumais are all slide-eligible for another year, meaning it could be four years until those guys hit RFA.

 

[Sdrawkcab321]

So you don't care for Severson in general. Got it.

This is correct. I like him offensively. Good offensive player. But when you already have a questionable goaltender and other subpar defensive d men on the team it makes this signing worse.

 

[traffic cone]

No amount of excuse making will convince me we needed to go to an 8th year. 6M for a future 3rd line d man who is a traffic cone on defense will get old very quickly. And that 6M won’t be a non factor when we need to resign our young core in 3-4 years.

There’s nothing worth of discussing with you about this topic then if that’s how you think. Like you already said, nothing is going to convince you otherwise.

Can move along to other topics.

 

[Sdrawkcab321]

i'll give it a shot.

in a vacuum, is six years preferable to eight? absolutely. but they can just treat it like a six year deal and get out of the deal after year 6, either via trade or buyout.

the opportunity cost of not getting severson here is either:

1. rushing jiricek into a top pair role at 19
2. putting boqvist on the top pair (too rich for him + bad fit with werenski)
3. putting peeke on the top pair (way too rich for him)
4. putting blankenburg on the top pair (injury prone)

…and getting severson allows them to trade at least one of boqvist/peeke (if not both eventually).

Acquisition	Total acquisition cost
Damon Severson - Fills biggest need - Six years - Market value contract Additional assets from: - Trading Peeke - Trading Boqvist	Up front cost - 2023 3rd round pick Deferred cost - $2.85m cap hit in 29-30 - $2.85m cap hit in 30-31 - $1.70m cap hit in 31-32 - $1.70m cap hit in 32-33 OR non-first round pick in early 2030s (trade)

the alternative to a buyout is trading him in the last two years of his deal. the picks they'll get from peeke/boqvist trades (which severson's acquisition enables) will be, at worst, a wash with whatever picks they give up in 2029-30.

but even if it comes to a buyout, that won't hurt their cap situation at all. the cap is projected to be $92 million by 2025-26. at that rate, it should be over $100m by 2029. it's not worth losing sleep over the possibility (not guarantee) of the jackets only having 98% of the cap to play with nine years from now.

in other words: the total cost with severson (cost to acquire + cost to jettison in six years) gets easily recouped by trades that can happen now that he's in the fold, or is paid in a very low percentage of the salary cap a very long time from now. the jackets come out ahead either way.

as for the more medium-term of needing to sign other guys… well, in 3-4 years they'll have:

• gudbranson off the books ($4m)
• elvis off the books ($5.4m)
• provorov off the books ($4.7m)
• jenner off the books ($3.7m)
• kuraly off the books ($2.5m)
• peeke off the books ($2.7m)
• boqvist off the books ($2.6m)
• bean off the books ($2.2m)

that's without considering laine or werenski – they're flush with wing + LHD prospects and can build around fantilli + jiricek, so it's not out of the question that they let those guys walk (or trade them for a haul of futures) to free up almost $20m of additional future cap.

they have three ELC years each for fantilli, jiricek and svozil. kent johnson has 10.2(c) status which will keep his next deal low. marchenko's a prime bridge candidate. sillinger's a low bridge candidate, too. mateychuk, del bel belluz and dumais are all slide-eligible for another year, meaning it could be four years until those guys hit RFA.

I appreciate the detailed layout. I just disagree that he was the right player to spend that money on. And I have my doubts that the cap will go up that much. And if it does I don’t buy that the deal will look better. We seen this happen in the nba in 2016 when the cap went up and teams went crazy giving out huge deals to guys who didn’t deserve it and it crippled their cap for years. I do think he’ll help our power play and will be an improvement over what we had last year. I think he’ll be good with Babcock and his long stretch pass offense. But I can’t get past his horrible defense. I think that’s going to be a giant issue for us for years to come.