Player Discussion Dakota Joshua | Shut up and give him his money!

MS

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I mean...the reason i bring it up, is that you mentioned he'd score more with PP time. But where? In what role? It'd be standing around the net, no?

It's just not a role that he's going to be in here because he's not that good at it. He's not Kreider. Which is why i bring up Zadorov who would probably be a better Powerplay Net Front presence. Or at least equally effectively. I don't even think either is a good idea. But it's trying to illustrate the problem here.


More importantly...it cuts to the bone of what Joshua is as a player. He's simply not a Top-6 player. He's not a Powerplay merchant. He's a guy who is massively important for his size and physicality when he's motivated...and an absolutely perfect complement to Garland.




They were so successful this year because they had a ton of players who bought in to a particular system and more often than not, they executed that system extremely well.


But it still wasn't nearly good enough. And leaning on the same players to somehow do better than they did in a "career year" breakout is foolish. I'm not sure if you've just got a bit of a blindspot for Joshua specifically...but he's the same thing as Hoglander. You'd be a complete rube to bet on Hoggy matching his goal total next year. I don't really see why Joshua is any different.

When I say I think he could score more if given PP time and your response is basically that it's akin to putting a 20-point defender there ... that's a lousy response.

It's not about Joshua's 'goal total'. It's about what players were effective, what players provide ingredients this team needs, what players fit the age group going forward.

And it's absolutely insane right now that people are wanting to ditch Garland/Joshua after their play this year to invest in what is going to be a brutal contract for Lindholm who has been mostly terrible for the past two years until a small sample of play with ... Garland and Joshua.

And dear god I hate these stupid arguments like just universally applying SH% regression (dumb), 'slow players age worse' (wrong) or that Joshua is old (signing for his age 28-31 years probably) or that Joshua was somehow bad in the playoffs (literally WHAT THE f*** - the guy was 2nd on the team in ES points, 1st in hits from the 3rd line, best forward in multiple games).

When you look at his excellent play, size/grit/PK ability on a team lacking these things, and his age and development curve *this is a player we should be investing in*.
 

Soups On

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no one is saying the guy's a bum and the team should jettison him. just counselling some caution here when it comes to offering him big dollars or term
It all depends what constitutes big dollars for him. If the team sees him as a top 6 forward I could see them willing to sign him for $4 million, even though I'd definitely prefer that $3-3.5 million number.
 

Bleach Clean

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no one is saying the guy's a bum and the team should jettison him. just counselling some caution here when it comes to offering him big dollars or term


Forget caution, be hyperbolic.

2nd on the team in ES points when 4 forwards were tied for 2nd and the team finished 10 of 16 in GF/GP... I mean, it's something? He did well enough to not be dissuaded from re-signing him, but he didn't look great to me. Chasing the play most often, at least 2 late hit penalties. Uncharacteristic reads on the PK where the team got torched. Etc... The game got faster and he looked slower. But again, late bloomer and worth a longer look. Positives were there too.

It all comes down to AAV.
 

credulous

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It all depends what constitutes big dollars for him. If the team sees him as a top 6 forward I could see them willing to sign him for $4 million, even though I'd definitely prefer that $3-3.5 million number.

i think he'll get at least 3m and he's got a shot at 4m. lots of gms out there will see his size and boxcars and talk themselves into thinking they've found the next great power forward

if the canucks can sign him to something like 10m/4yr or maybe 6m/2yr i think it's a little risky but basically fine but i'm worried he's gonna get like 20m/5yr from someone and i hope it's not the canucks
 

Soups On

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i think he'll get at least 3m and he's got a shot at 4m. lots of gms out there will see his size and boxcars and talk themselves into thinking they've found the next great power forward

if the canucks can sign him to something like 10m/4yr or maybe 6m/2yr i think it's a little risky but basically fine but i'm worried he's gonna get like 20m/5yr from someone and i hope it's not the canucks
Yeah I could see the hesitancy there - it's a big gamble. I do hope the Canucks can lock him up early, definitely a fan favourite here. Having Garland and Joshua staple the 3rd line is excellent depth - especially if Joshua shows he has top 6 capabilities.
 

SeawaterOnIce

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I think people will get sticker shock this summer looking at what UFAs will fetch. Very few decent wingers and most GMs will settle on reclamation projects or 30-40 point guys.

4 mil for a third line winger with unknown potential in a top 6 role sounds about right.
 
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Bleach Clean

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I think people will get sticker shock this summer looking at what UFAs will fetch. Very few decent wingers and most GMs will settle on reclamation projects or 30-40 point guys.

4 mil for a third line winger with unknown potential in a top 6 role sounds about right.


The middle ground between Foligno's 4.79% of the cap and Paul's 3.82% of the cap is 4%. With an $87m cap that yields $3.5m AAV.

You don't have to be on the upper end of what players like this get because one inflated contract shouldn't inform all others. $4m seems a touch too high.


Edit: Also, I can't recall where, but Donny/Dhali and/or Seravelli definitely thought Joshua turned into a pumpkin these playoffs. The takes on this player are quite varied.
 
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biturbo19

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When I say I think he could score more if given PP time and your response is basically that it's akin to putting a 20-point defender there ... that's a lousy response.

It's not about Joshua's 'goal total'. It's about what players were effective, what players provide ingredients this team needs, what players fit the age group going forward.

And it's absolutely insane right now that people are wanting to ditch Garland/Joshua after their play this year to invest in what is going to be a brutal contract for Lindholm who has been mostly terrible for the past two years until a small sample of play with ... Garland and Joshua.

And dear god I hate these stupid arguments like just universally applying SH% regression (dumb), 'slow players age worse' (wrong) or that Joshua is old (signing for his age 28-31 years probably) or that Joshua was somehow bad in the playoffs (literally WHAT THE f*** - the guy was 2nd on the team in ES points, 1st in hits from the 3rd line, best forward in multiple games).

When you look at his excellent play, size/grit/PK ability on a team lacking these things, and his age and development curve *this is a player we should be investing in*.


I can understand the frustration when it comes to the idea of ditching a guy like Dakota to afford to keep Lindholm. In some sense. It really just depends on what the $$$ values for each is...because overall, Lindholm is still a massively better and more impactful player. I think the salary ask difference probably makes both of them a walk-away scenario though.

I think what you're getting at with the point about Garland and Dak being they guys to raise Lindholm's play has some merit. But that's also the point in general. Garland is the guy who runs the show. The other pieces are peripheral. We've got more than enough examples of this on different teams and different samples too believe in that. I still don't fully understand Garland...but the tiny little bastard is an insane line-driving bottom-6 winger. It's bizarre because he's useless in the Top-6...but he's a guy you prioritize and keep.

Joshy is the other end of that. He had some good results while playing with that line-driver...but he did diddly squat without him. Just picking a thing out of that...4.2% of his minutes with Suter and Beauvillier. Literally nothing happened. Tiny sample and that's the case with absolutely anyone else with Dakota. He played with Garland an enormous amount with him. It's basically two thirds of his ice time. And it's where the massive bulk on his production came from.




If you can keep that Garland-Dakota chemistry around, by all means...do it. If it's affordable. But i just don't see an avenue to that. $4M is insane for a 28 year old one-year wonder big guy who scored at an unsustainable rate and hasn't shown a shred of upside beyond that.


It's annoying to talk about scoring rates and stuff...but in this case, it has some merit if you drill down to the usage and context. I also don't know how they replace what Joshua offers as a physical presence that we need more of, not less. Nor do i know exactly where his PK minutes are backfilled.



But i just do not think that you can spend $4M on a bottom-6 winger because he makes the boards go boom. I think at that point, you have to look at other options for the role. Even though they're also very expensive.
 
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biturbo19

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Forget caution, be hyperbolic.

2nd on the team in ES points when 4 forwards were tied for 2nd and the team finished 10 of 16 in GF/GP... I mean, it's something? He did well enough to not be dissuaded from re-signing him, but he didn't look great to me. Chasing the play most often, at least 2 late hit penalties. Uncharacteristic reads on the PK where the team got torched. Etc... The game got faster and he looked slower. But again, late bloomer and worth a longer look. Positives were there too.

It all comes down to AAV.


Agreed. At the right cap number, i'd be happy to have him back.


But there's a line where you simply cannot afford to pay a complementary bottom-6 winger like that. For me...the number is...sub $3M or he can walk. It's harsh...but you have to make these calls.


I think your point about him looking slower the more speed the game had, is right on the nose. He can still play...but he's just fundamentally not a quick or fast player. He can get rolling pretty good, but if i'm staring down the barrel of $3-4M...i'm going out and and finding a different big guy who is a better skater.
 
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Javaman

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I'm coming to like the idea of $10M over 4 years. Gives a guy who was hanging onto an NHL career by a thread "set for life" money. Doesn't lock the Canucks into an albatross contract for the kind of player who usually takes a nosedive in performance after the age of 30.

But it's probably a harder sell to Joshua's agent than to the Canucks.
 

sting101

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Feb 8, 2012
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He's a 3rd liner. How the hell are we going to improve the top6 remake our D and get a player that is of enough quality to play on PP1 in the bumper and be able to help our 11.6m dollar Swede earn his contract

76-22-18-40 almost all at 5v5 and amongst the hit leaders in the NHL. Joshua will get 3.5 to 4.5.

You guys really want to allocate that much with Garland at 5 million to our 3rd line?

The issue is this.....

SH% = 21.4
1 Big spike year at 28
20 of his points were either directly assisted by Garland or from Garland goals.

It was a fantastic duo and if he signed for 3.25x4 i could live with it. I love his attributes and the duo but were not in a position to overpay the bottom half of our roster especially when we all know that his shooting pctg will regress and his production is mostly tied to Garland fluffing it.

I'm not counting on him being back and frankly it sucks but i'm ok with it from an economics standoint, Nick Roy Michael Rasmussen and Nick Paul all took 3-3.2. They are better players
 
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bandwagonesque

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When I say I think he could score more if given PP time and your response is basically that it's akin to putting a 20-point defender there ... that's a lousy response.

It's not about Joshua's 'goal total'. It's about what players were effective, what players provide ingredients this team needs, what players fit the age group going forward.

And it's absolutely insane right now that people are wanting to ditch Garland/Joshua after their play this year to invest in what is going to be a brutal contract for Lindholm who has been mostly terrible for the past two years until a small sample of play with ... Garland and Joshua.

And dear god I hate these stupid arguments like just universally applying SH% regression (dumb), 'slow players age worse' (wrong) or that Joshua is old (signing for his age 28-31 years probably) or that Joshua was somehow bad in the playoffs (literally WHAT THE f*** - the guy was 2nd on the team in ES points, 1st in hits from the 3rd line, best forward in multiple games).

When you look at his excellent play, size/grit/PK ability on a team lacking these things, and his age and development curve *this is a player we should be investing in*.
Joshua's play around the net with the puck and working of off other players was shockingly good at times this season and anyone would have had to wonder if he can do it consistently.
 

Regal

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The big thing for me is that I’m not sure if they can pay him and make the necessary improvements to the team elsewhere. While Pettersson’s disappearing act was a big part of it and I expect him to get back, we saw that the team really needs to improve the top 6. With Garland already looking like a better option to keep in the third at 4.9, Joshua at 3.5-4 makes that a really expensive 3rd line when you now have Petey at 11.6. I like a lot of what he brings, but the team needs at least 1 more sure fire top 6, ideally top line winger more. And even if you break up Garland-Joshua to play him in the top 6, I feel like you’re still short a top 6 winger, as Suter and Mik shouldn’t be there in the first place.
 
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Cancuks

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Some desparate team will offer him $4 million or more. I'd rather just give his spot in the lineup to Podkolzin and use the extra cap space to get a scoring winger for Pettersson.
 
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RobsonStreet

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Garland-Blueger-Joshua was one of the best lines in hockey when comparing shots, goals or chances differential. With Blueger and Joshua also two PK guys it seems like a no-brainer to try hard to run it back.

I don’t care that Joshua scored 5 goals above expected if that line can continue to match up against top lines and come out ahead.
 
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thecupismine

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People tend to forget that despite being 28, he barely has any wear and tear on his body compared to most big-bodied 28 year olds. It's been forever since we've had anyone who's both physical & a line driver in the bottom 6 and who can PK - they're a rare breed in the NHL, and the moment they're gone you spend forever looking for them again.

Guys like Lucic had been playing in the NHL since they were 19/20, playing 82 games a year + playoffs with a really heavy style, so it wasn't a huge surprise they broke down in their late 20s after 7-8 full NHL seasons of grinding.

Conversely, Joshua has all of 3 full seasons of professional hockey under his belt. He did the full college run of 4 years, with 35 games per year, then 2 half seasons in the ECHL/AHL/NHL (COVID cut down on play time? My memory is hazy here) before transitioning to the big leagues.

Late bloomer in every sense of the term, and typical age charts are going to do a poor chart of mapping his trajectory. You're likely going to get 4 more good years out of him before you see a downturn in play, which makes giving him more years to lower the AAV a good bet.

Give the man his money, and ensure we have 3 good lines going into next year if we can get Petey help.
 
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sting101

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i would think if he stays in line with Paul Luostarainen Rasmussen and N.Roy we could retain him at 4 x 3-3.25 but if he goes chasing the bag we have to let him walk

Also have to factor in how the organization views Podkolzin Raty and Bains and where they think those guys slot in. No doubt Joshua being able to PK and his size/strength physicality is a huge factor if were looking to go far in the playoffs and get the most from Garland who he seems to help and Tocchet is a big fan.
 

vancityluongo

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i think he'll get at least 3m and he's got a shot at 4m. lots of gms out there will see his size and boxcars and talk themselves into thinking they've found the next great power forward

if the canucks can sign him to something like 10m/4yr or maybe 6m/2yr i think it's a little risky but basically fine but i'm worried he's gonna get like 20m/5yr from someone and i hope it's not the canucks

would you do a reduced form of the nick paul contract? say... 3m x 6 years?
 

credulous

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would you do a reduced form of the nick paul contract? say... 3m x 6 years?

3m is too much for that long i think. i think joshua could get this, i just don't think it's a smart contract for a team to sign. maybe if it could be structured that you could easily buy it out after 2-3 years but i'm not sure how that would work
 

wetcoast

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The middle ground between Foligno's 4.79% of the cap and Paul's 3.82% of the cap is 4%. With an $87m cap that yields $3.5m AAV.

You don't have to be on the upper end of what players like this get because one inflated contract shouldn't inform all others. $4m seems a touch too high.


Edit: Also, I can't recall where, but Donny/Dhali and/or Seravelli definitely thought Joshua turned into a pumpkin these playoffs. The takes on this player are quite varied.
I think there will also be a supply/demand issue this offseason like every offseason and some bargains can be had later after teams blow their money.

i haven't looked at this year's market in depth but Joshua's skillset is rare and he is looking like a $4million per type of FA signing, maybe it's with the Canucks if they can do something about contracts elsewhere hard to say.
 

mossey3535

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I would prefer to keep him, his skillset and size just isn't in the organization at forward.

However I think he regressed in the playoffs and it's concerning how he started the season as well.

1000ft view, I think he didn't do as well because he's basically the only one bringing that element. If we had another guy, ideally a tough center between him and Garland, I think we can maximize his potential. He just needs help sometimes.
 
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David71

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Some desparate team will offer him $4 million or more. I'd rather just give his spot in the lineup to Podkolzin and use the extra cap space to get a scoring winger for Pettersson.
there is always that ONE ONE DUMB GM that will give players like joshua big money and in the end it backfires. remember byran bickell from hawks? thats the comparative ive always think back to.
 

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