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D Matt Schaefer - Erie Otters, OHL (2025 Draft)

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Given all the time that he missed this year and that Defensemen in general take a longer time, could he be a rare case of a first overall that gets slid back to Junior Hockey?
 
WarriorofTime said:
Given all the time that he missed this year and that Defensemen in general take a longer time, could he be a rare case of a first overall that gets slid back to Junior Hockey?
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Depends on who drafts him and how he progresses back after his injury and he might not even go first.
 
WarriorofTime said:
Given all the time that he missed this year and that Defensemen in general take a longer time, could he be a rare case of a first overall that gets slid back to Junior Hockey?
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Now they have the option to play in college. So I'd bet he goes to BC or something if not the NHL.
 
Pavel Buchnevich said:
How have you arrived at all these calculuses?

Because it seems very arbitrary and hard to follow.

Hagens and Misa are significantly better pre draft than the players you compare them to. You give Martone like the widest range of outcomes possible (a true league superstar or middle six forward). And you’ve declared Schaefer will be a top 10 defenseman in the NHL on the smallest sample of the four.
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The truth of the matter is Schaefer had a larger sample size of impressive play.

Misa people have some concerns with whether his scoring is inflated, which is difficult to evaluate. Hagens just doesn't score enough to excite people, particularly for a small forward having difficulty getting his shot off.
 
Zarzh said:
The truth of the matter is Schaefer had a larger sample size of impressive play.
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He’s played 19 competitive games this season. What’s this bigger sample you speak of? That’s considerably smaller of a sample than all the other candidates. And last year he was nowhere near this level. Are you watching him play in his garage or something?
Zarzh said:
Misa people have some concerns with whether his scoring is inflated, which is difficult to evaluate.
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Well yeah, junior scoring is inflated, especially in the OHL. Probably applies to all of them. Why not dock Schaefer for that though?
Zarzh said:
Hagens just doesn't score enough to excite people, particularly for a small forward having difficulty getting his shot off.
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Scoring as much as the World Juniors MVP at BC. Has the WHC17 points record, the WJC18 points record, and only had a lowly 9 points (one of the top totals at the tournament) at the WJC this year. While we’re at it, we can include his 4th position in goals at the tournament (including one in the final) since he doesn’t get his shot off enough for you.
 
Pavel Buchnevich said:
He’s played 19 competitive games this season. What’s this bigger sample you speak of? That’s considerably smaller of a sample than all the other candidates. And last year he was nowhere near this level. Are you watching him play in his garage or something?

Well yeah, junior scoring is inflated, especially in the OHL. Probably applies to all of them. Why not dock Schaefer for that though?

Scoring as much as the World Juniors MVP at BC. Has the WHC17 points record, the WJC18 points record, and only had a lowly 9 points (one of the top totals at the tournament) at the WJC this year. While we’re at it, we can include his 4th position in goals at the tournament (including one in the final) since he doesn’t get his shot off enough for you.
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Schaefer actually plays on a pretty middle of the road scoring team.
 
I know that #1 overall picks normally go straight to the NHL, but this is a case where if you've picked him at that spot you've taken a defenseman (longer development curve compared to forwards) who hasn't played a whole ton of games in his draft year. Do you let him dominate juniors and the WJC and bring him in the following year? Do you give him 9 games and then return him? Do you keep him up the whole year despite his age, position and lack of experience?

I haven't really seen the kid play but I'm just typing out loud here. I'm not qualified to have an opinion one way or the other.
 
TheGreenTBer said:
I know that #1 overall picks normally go straight to the NHL, but this is a case where if you've picked him at that spot you've taken a defenseman (longer development curve compared to forwards) who hasn't played a whole ton of games in his draft year. Do you let him dominate juniors and the WJC and bring him in the following year? Do you give him 9 games and then return him? Do you keep him up the whole year despite his age, position and lack of experience?

I haven't really seen the kid play but I'm just typing out loud here. I'm not qualified to have an opinion one way or the other.
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I send him to the NCCA. I do think he has the chance to make the NHL out of camp, but I’d love to see him in college.
 
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Hockeyville USA said:
Good chance Nashville is picking top 3, imagine if they are able to get Schaefer. Perfect Josi replacement long term.
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Out of the current bottom 5 teams the only team I see picking Misa/Hagens over him is Buffalo. San Jose winning the lottery and adding him on the back end next to Dickinson is unfair. Especially with Celebrini and Smith up front.
 
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wetcoast said:
They could but should they?

I didn't like the leaving Demidov on the table for a Dman who might be the most ready pick from last year.
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From Chicago's POV as I understand it, they have a pretty deep D pool but they are seriously lacking help for Bedard up front. Sure, Schaefer has been the clear-cut #1, but Misa has been coming on strong and who knows by June. Also, D takes longer and Schaefer is young. It feels like CHI could consider any F alongside Schaefer and it wouldn't be that surprising.

Most people here are going to say "BPA" but just because Bob's list in Jan says Schaefer is BPA doesn't mean everyone thinks so (I know you know this, just saying). Even Mike Grier who has been quite honest with his public comments was asked about Schaefer and said something to the effect of "well, this year there's no obvious #1 right, no Celebrini or Bedard, but they're all exciting and we'll do our homework." He didn't have to say that and he hasn't been one to try to manipulate through comments, so who knows where teams have "BPA"?
 
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Pavel Buchnevich said:
Teams will pick their Best Player Available. Fans don’t understand that teams don’t draft for need at 1OA.

When is Schaefer supposed to return? Any news?
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This has been debunked over and over and over again, because there is rarely such a thing as "BPA" universal to all 32 teams, and when there is, you don't even have to have the debate.

For example -- Celebrini was BPA, but nobody had to say "just draft BPA" in discussions about who to pick because duh.

At #2, Levshunov, Demidov were the most obvious choices, and they went with the RD -- was this "Just pick BPA"? an entire year of HFB debates would say that at least the public was not agreed on who was BPA at #2, and position obviously played a role. "Fans don't understand" actually that BPA isn't BPA. And moreover, when orgs are deciding who to pick, risk profile does play in. So once again, "Just draft BPA" is definitely not how the professional amateur scouting teams in the NHL think about it.

As it pertains to Schaefer -- if teams see him as the clearly best player available and aren't concerned about his risk profile, then he will go #1 regardless of team need. If, however, these boards' disagreements (is it Hagens, Schaefer, or Misa?) reflect what's happening in NHL scouting rooms, then anyone of those three could go first and you'd be able to justify it, and therefore position very well may play.
 
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When was the last time you had a player drafted that missed a good chunk of the season turned out well? My two cents, not worth the risk if you're drafting top-3.
 
Hockeyville USA said:
Good chance Nashville is picking top 3, imagine if they are able to get Schaefer. Perfect Josi replacement long term.
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waitin425 said:
Out of the current bottom 5 teams the only team I see picking Misa/Hagens over him is Buffalo. San Jose winning the lottery and adding him on the back end next to Dickinson is unfair. Especially with Celebrini and Smith up front.
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Yeah, Nashville would most definitely pick Misa/Hagens over Schaefer unless he drops to 3-4. We've been looking for young offensive talent since our inception.
 
Hockeyville USA said:
2012: Morgan Rielly comes to mind

Although rarely do top prospects get hurt during their DY and miss much/most of the season. Your point is very fair though
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The thing is, I can understand the hesitation had Schaefer dominated the year prior, but he had an average season as a 16 year old and this year is not enough imo to risk at top-3, specially not when you have guys like Misa and Martone there.
 
SuperScript29 said:
The thing is, I can understand the hesitation had Schaefer dominated the year prior, but he had an average season as a 16 year old and this year is not enough imo to risk at top-3, specially not when you have guys like Misa and Martone there.
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If you watched his 2024 U18 Tournament, you'd see why everyone was super hyped about him last year.
 
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