D Matt Schaefer - Erie Otters, OHL (2025 Draft)

[WarriorofTime]

Given all the time that he missed this year and that Defensemen in general take a longer time, could he be a rare case of a first overall that gets slid back to Junior Hockey?

 

[wetcoast]

Given all the time that he missed this year and that Defensemen in general take a longer time, could he be a rare case of a first overall that gets slid back to Junior Hockey?

Depends on who drafts him and how he progresses back after his injury and he might not even go first.

 

[WarriorofTime]

Depends on who drafts him and how he progresses back after his injury and he might not even go first.

Progresses should be fine minus a setback, he'll be back to no limitations well before the draft

 

[MHO]

Given all the time that he missed this year and that Defensemen in general take a longer time, could he be a rare case of a first overall that gets slid back to Junior Hockey?

Now they have the option to play in college. So I'd bet he goes to BC or something if not the NHL.

 

[Zarzh]

How have you arrived at all these calculuses?

Because it seems very arbitrary and hard to follow.

Hagens and Misa are significantly better pre draft than the players you compare them to. You give Martone like the widest range of outcomes possible (a true league superstar or middle six forward). And you’ve declared Schaefer will be a top 10 defenseman in the NHL on the smallest sample of the four.

The truth of the matter is Schaefer had a larger sample size of impressive play.

Misa people have some concerns with whether his scoring is inflated, which is difficult to evaluate. Hagens just doesn't score enough to excite people, particularly for a small forward having difficulty getting his shot off.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

The truth of the matter is Schaefer had a larger sample size of impressive play.

He’s played 19 competitive games this season. What’s this bigger sample you speak of? That’s considerably smaller of a sample than all the other candidates. And last year he was nowhere near this level. Are you watching him play in his garage or something?

Misa people have some concerns with whether his scoring is inflated, which is difficult to evaluate.

Well yeah, junior scoring is inflated, especially in the OHL. Probably applies to all of them. Why not dock Schaefer for that though?

Hagens just doesn't score enough to excite people, particularly for a small forward having difficulty getting his shot off.

Scoring as much as the World Juniors MVP at BC. Has the WHC17 points record, the WJC18 points record, and only had a lowly 9 points (one of the top totals at the tournament) at the WJC this year. While we’re at it, we can include his 4th position in goals at the tournament (including one in the final) since he doesn’t get his shot off enough for you.

 

[WarriorofTime]

He’s played 19 competitive games this season. What’s this bigger sample you speak of? That’s considerably smaller of a sample than all the other candidates. And last year he was nowhere near this level. Are you watching him play in his garage or something?

Well yeah, junior scoring is inflated, especially in the OHL. Probably applies to all of them. Why not dock Schaefer for that though?

Scoring as much as the World Juniors MVP at BC. Has the WHC17 points record, the WJC18 points record, and only had a lowly 9 points (one of the top totals at the tournament) at the WJC this year. While we’re at it, we can include his 4th position in goals at the tournament (including one in the final) since he doesn’t get his shot off enough for you.

Schaefer actually plays on a pretty middle of the road scoring team.

 

[TheGreenTBer]

I know that #1 overall picks normally go straight to the NHL, but this is a case where if you've picked him at that spot you've taken a defenseman (longer development curve compared to forwards) who hasn't played a whole ton of games in his draft year. Do you let him dominate juniors and the WJC and bring him in the following year? Do you give him 9 games and then return him? Do you keep him up the whole year despite his age, position and lack of experience?

I haven't really seen the kid play but I'm just typing out loud here. I'm not qualified to have an opinion one way or the other.