D Matt Schaefer - Erie Otters, OHL (2025 Draft)

[Pavel Buchnevich]

I don’t see on what basis people can say Schaefer has a higher certainty of reaching some great outcome.

This is quite literally the thinnest resume we have ever seen of a 1OA pick. And it’s probably one of the thinner from a top 5 pick. He was nowhere near a top 5 level based off last season. This season he played at a top 5 level (some will say first overall) for maybe 20-25 games between OHL and Team Canada.

Now obviously the draft involves projecting. Some will convince themselves he can be this or that, but he’s probably the absolute least proven player of the top 5 in this draft.

He has by far the highest bust potential of all the top names because we’ve seen by far the least of him playing like a top prospect.

 

[Garbageyuk]

Good size, AGGRESSIVE skater, and great offensive ability. That's a prime 1st overall pick. Unless there are medical concerns, I'd be shocked if he didnt go 1st. Especially with the teams currently near that selection (Chi, SJS). They have the talent up front, now go get the backend set

Fair - I understand they are thin behind Bedard. I'm more saying they drafted their Top forward #1 OVR in Bedard, I think Schaeffer is a tier or two above Leshunov.

The hype around Schaefer is just insane relative to what he’s actually accomplished. What has he done to be ranked so high?

We have a 17 game sample size of “great offensive ability” as you say. And it wasn’t even all that great. What has he done to be seen as a better prospect than Sam Dickinson was last year, for example?

The situation reminds me a whole lot of the hype around guys like Erik Johnson, Ryan Murray, Seth Jones, and Adam Larsson heading into their drafts.

All those guys had #1 overall hype, even though only Johnson actually ended up going #1. The level of hype for those guys never made sense to me either.

 

[WeThreeKings]

I don't find it that hard to understand.. Schaefer flashed 1D potential in a draft that the only other players 'challenging' for 1st OA are projected wingers (a lot of NHL teams think Misa is a winger, Martone is one) or didn't show 1C upside (Hagens).

Taking the guy from the premium position who flashed the highest ceiling of all seems pretty obviously the direction the NHL scouting staffs are going with the guy.

It just reminds me of the discourse around the 2022 draft. You can't invent a prospect that isn't there.

 

[wetcoast]

All this chatter about last season needs to just stop as he proved it in a best on best tournament after that personally tragic season with 2 people in his life dying and playing for a conservative coach.

This season he literally tilted the ice out there for Eire, he isn't just some offensive dman, he is the total package.

We saw at the WJC that he was the best Canadian Dman in a short sample before a freak injury.

Aside from injury concerns, which applies to every player, Schaefer as one of the younger guys in this draft doesn't raise any bust alarm bells and probably projects as the best player as well that's why most people have him #1.

 

[Rusty8719]

I don’t see on what basis people can say Schaefer has a higher certainty of reaching some great outcome.

This is quite literally the thinnest resume we have ever seen of a 1OA pick. And it’s probably one of the thinner from a top 5 pick. He was nowhere near a top 5 level based off last season. This season he played at a top 5 level (some will say first overall) for maybe 20-25 games between OHL and Team Canada.

Now obviously the draft involves projecting. Some will convince themselves he can be this or that, but he’s probably the absolute least proven player of the top 5 in this draft.

He has by far the highest bust potential of all the top names because we’ve seen by far the least of him playing like a top prospect.

>He has by far the highest bust potential of all the top names because we’ve seen by far the least of him playing like a top prospect.

Counterargument is we've seen the other top names play full seasons and leave more to be desired because of it.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

>He has by far the highest bust potential of all the top names because we’ve seen by far the least of him playing like a top prospect.

Counterargument is we've seen the other top names play full seasons and leave more to be desired because of it.

You realize Schaefer also has a scratchy resume? His 2023-24 season was not worthy of the draft slot he’ll go in.

Now maybe you can argue it was an anomaly or he’s a totally new player, but he has less good on his resume and he has probably as much or more that causes scrutiny, so maybe someone envisions him to be this or that, but he definitely has a checkered resume.

His resume is probably not his selling point. It’s envisioning what someone believes he could be.

 

[Dempsey]

You realize Schaefer also has a scratchy resume? His 2023-24 season was not worthy of the draft slot he’ll go in.

Now maybe you can argue it was an anomaly or he’s a totally new player, but he has less good on his resume and he has probably as much or more that causes scrutiny, so maybe someone envisions him to be this or that, but he definitely has a checkered resume.

Plenty of prospects hit a new level in their draft year, fly up the rankings all year, are drafted way higher than they were expected in their D-1, and then it’s proven as time goes by that the scouts were correct.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

Utterly devastating to find out Schaefer isn’t an Ivy league grad. No longer my top guy.

 

[Rusty8719]

You realize Schaefer also has a scratchy resume? His 2023-24 season was not worthy of the draft slot he’ll go in.

Now maybe you can argue it was an anomaly or he’s a totally new player, but he has less good on his resume and he has probably as much or more that causes scrutiny, so maybe someone envisions him to be this or that, but he definitely has a checkered resume.

His resume is probably not his selling point. It’s envisioning what someone believes he could be.

I mean that's all great I guess.

What Schaefer showed in 20 + 2 games this year to make you feel better about him than what Misa, Hagens and co. did the past 2 seasons.

 

[Rusty8719]

Plenty of prospects hit a new level in their draft year, fly up the rankings all year, are drafted way higher than they were expected in their D-1, and then it’s proven as time goes by that the scouts were correct.

You're absolutely right.

Misa was projected around 4-8 coming into the season and now fans think he might be a franchise C to take at 1 or 2.

 

[Dempsey]

You're absolutely right.

Misa was projected around 4-8 coming into the season and now fans think he might be a franchise C to take at 1 or 2.

Yep.

Mark Scheifele was barely a point per game in the OJHL in his D-1.

Ryan Johansen had 17 points in the BCHL in his D-1 season and went 4th overall.

 

[landy92mack29]

It will never sink in with some unfortunately but Schaefer didn't magically come out of no where and only has this small sample size of elite play, but there's narratives to keep. He was elite at a young age and went 1st overall in the OHL draft for a reason. Had a quiet numbers year his draft -1 which quite a few dmen do as very rare for 16 year olds to get prime minutes. Plus he dealt with a lot off the ice but that's also seen as a excuse by some

 

[Kingpin794]

It will never sink in with some unfortunately but Schaefer didn't magically come out of no where and only has this small sample size of elite play, but there's narratives to keep. He was elite at a young age and went 1st overall in the OHL draft for a reason. Had a quiet numbers year his draft -1 which quite a few dmen do as very rare for 16 year olds to get prime minutes. Plus he dealt with a lot off the ice but that's also seen as a excuse by some

AND playing for the dinosaur Stan Butler.

 

[Gnashville]

Which could be a good strategy I guess, depending on who's available.

Except that the TBL and VGK picks are currently slated to be the 24th and 29th picks respectively, and that the players available at those spots will be guys middle-pairing guys like Blake Fiddler and Carter Amico types.

That, or Nashville gets lucky and a player like Logan Hensler or Cameron Reid falls a bit.

If the Predators drafted Schaefer #1 or #2, at the 24th and 29th pick they get to choose between a good number of players (Schmidt, Kindel, Zonnon, Murtagh, Gastrin, Bear if the achilles tear makes him fall, etc.) that I think would be higher-end options to the defensemen possibly available.

Long story short, a Schaefer + choice of forwards would be a better draft haul in my opinion to Misa + choice of defensemen.

The fan base would rather have Misa and Fiddler (born in Nashville TN) than Schaefer and another mediocre forward that gets released/or traded for a 3rd round pick after 3 seasons but honestly Trotz will take Schaefer if he’s available.