D Cale Makar - UMass (Amherst), NCAA (2017, 4th, COL)

[cgf]

??? - Makar
Zadorov - Timmins
Girard - Meloche

Zadorov - Makar
Girard - Meloche
McIsaac - Timmins

boom

 

[Dominance]

??? - Makar
Zadorov - Timmins
Girard - Meloche

Girard on the third pair of your projected roster

 

[RoyIsALegend]

Girard on the third pair of your projected roster

Sheltered even strength and lots of PP time.

You won’t find many Avs fans who disagree with that approach.

 

[EXTRAS]

What is his MOST LIKELY projection in the NHL level? Not his ceiling or floor, just what he has the highest chance of becoming? Offensive 2d or 3d that usually puts up around 40ish points?

 

[cgf]

What is his MOST LIKELY projection in the NHL level? Not his ceiling or floor, just what he has the highest chance of becoming? Offensive 2d or 3d that usually puts up around 40ish points?

He looks like the blueline-version of MacKinnon, so who the f*** knows how good he actually ends up

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

What is his MOST LIKELY projection in the NHL level? Not his ceiling or floor, just what he has the highest chance of becoming? Offensive 2d or 3d that usually puts up around 40ish points?

That would be pretty disappointing IMO. He has was more realistic upside then just 40 points.


I think he has legit #1 upside. The way he skates is absolutely ridiculous for a Dman, the confidence he has when the puck on his stick is unmatched. He clearly thinks the game at a very high level with some of the plays he makes. He does a really good job at getting shots through traffic and on net. And his defensive game isn't going to suffer in higher leagues because he has decent size(I think he's over 6 feet now and probably flirting with 200 pounds) and at least based on the world juniors, appears to have solid gap control and a good stick.


His absolute ceiling really is that of a Canadian Erik Karlsson. Now, I dont expect him to reach that level, he would need everything to go perfect for him to hit that level. But I do think reaching the level of a #1D in the mold of a Duncan Keith is absolutely attainable for him, maybe not quite as strong of a defensive game, but similar. 50-60 points in his prime, solid two way game, and on the ice for 25-30 minutes a game.

 

[Slurpeelover27]

I agree that his ceiling is Erik Karlsson like. To me he is the closest that anyone has ever looked to Paul Coffey that I can remember. He can skate like the wind, has incredible skills and hockey sense and just oozes offense. When he gets the puck on his stick his first instinct is to attack and he has the ability to execute what he thinks. I believe that his skills are so much above the players he played with at the WJC's that he actually had to slow down his passes so his teammates could receive them. If you watched the earlier games his passes were snapped to his teammate and some were too slow to react to them. Once he plays with the best in the NHL he will be able to achieve better results because his teammates will be able to keep up, get open, understand where he will be and what he can do. I am very excited to see ho he will connect with Mackinnon, Rantanan, Landeskog etc. Hopefully, this October he will make the team. He is definitely ready IMO. He is obviously a quick study and can learn what he needs to in the NHL.

I think you are right Pierce that he looks much bigger than what his stats said at the beginning of the season. He looks strong and taller compared to peers.

The potential for this kid is enormous and I have been watching hockey for 40 years now so I think I am a pretty good judge of talent. Not sure why everyone questions his defense when he has not shown weaknesses. Only thing people can point to is that he has not faced the best competition which is really a ridiculous argument. For sure he has things to learn, but has adjusted more than adequately each time he moves up. He is dominating now in the NCAA and that was a big jump from the AJHL. There is a reason why he was picked #4 overall and some even said he had a chance to go #1.

Avs fans have reason to be as excited as any fan in the NHL for their future. Lots of other young talent as well so tons of improvement still possible with current roster players with lots more on the way. In 2 years they will be a powerhouse if not even next year.

 

[Frolov 6'3]

He does a really good job at getting shots through traffic and on net. And his defensive game isn't going to suffer in higher leagues because he has decent size (I think he's over 6 feet now and probably flirting with 200 pounds)

He is 6'0'' at best, let alone 200 pounds.

At the draft he was standing next to Joe Sakic and right now he still looks relatively small.

 

[cgf]

He is 6'0'' at best, let alone 200 pounds.

At the draft he was standing next to Joe Sakic and right now he still looks relatively small.

At the WJC he didn’t look significantly smaller than 6’1, 200+ guys like Timmins

 

[93LEAFS]

At the WJC he didn’t look significantly than 6’1, 200+ guys like Timmins

Its unlikely he grew much height wise since the combine. He measured in at 5'11.25. Timmens measured in at 6'1.5. Camera work can always be deceiving depending on angles and such.

 

[tigervixxxen]

Not only is he amazing, but he has also grown it seems. People were not a fan of his 5'10 stature at the draft. He looks bigger than that on the ice and here is a picture of him stood beside 6'1 Dante Fabbro and they are both pretty much the same height. I mean there could be some small equipment differences such as one wearing a skate with a thicker heel. But there's no chance in hell he's 3 inches shorter. I'd bank on Makar already being 6'0.

There's this photo of him next to Fabbro who was 6'1 at the combine. Makar has been a late bloomer so it's not too much a stretch to think he got to 6 foot. He's not going to change his size significantly but he already had a decent size frame. I was watching a broadcast and they were remarking no way he's still 5'11 too.

And Girard is averaging 18 minutes a night now, with no safety net and is one of the best on the team at CA/60 so no his future is not a 3rd pairing pp specialist.

 

[Slurpeelover27]

Main point is that he looks plenty big and strong enough to step in even now if given the opportunity. Size should not be a factor that holds him back from the NHL.

Anyone know where can check updated stats like this for players like Necas, Petterson, Glass , Yamamoto etc. who definitely needed to bulk up some before making the jump?

 

[cgf]

Main point is that he looks plenty big and strong enough to step in even now if given the opportunity. Size should not be a factor that holds him back from the NHL.

Anyone know where can check updated stats like this for players like Necas, Petterson, Glass , Yamamoto etc. who definitely needed to bulk up some before making the jump?

Seeing him elevate his game in the playoffs is huge, but I'd still like to see Makar dominating consistently before coming up to the Avs...be that after going back to UMass or joining the Eagles for their inaugural AHL campaign. He's a ridiculous talent, but AJHL to NHL is a ridiculous jump. With EJ & Barrie already locking the right side of our top 4; Barrie n Girard giving the team two high end creatives from the backend; Meloche really coming on strong in his first pro season, and Timmins going pro next season; the avs don't have to rush Makar. And with a talent like him making as big a jump as he has had to, I'd rather play it safe & give him all of the time in the world to let the other RHDs in our system sort themselves out before Makar forces his way into the mix.

 

[Slurpeelover27]

I understand the logic behind holding him back until he is "ready". However, I never understood the reasoning that giving someone a shot at the pro level might hurt their development. If done properly then when it is clear the player is not ready they can be sent back down knowing what they need to work on. They will have also had the experience of playing in the higher league. To me it would send the message at least that the team thinks I am close and that I have a real shot at turning pro sometime in the future. As everyone is saying the Avalanche has a pretty good group of defencemen already, so Makar would not need to face the best players on the other team and could be slowly integrated into the team and be given more responsibilities as he progresses. Isn't this an ideal time to introduce a new player rather than giving the new player key minutes with lots of pressure? Makar is not jumping from the AJHL to the NHL, he is jumping from playing with men in the NCAA to the NHL which is what many players do. If you follow how he has been doing in the NCAA this year he is receiving 1st line minutes in all situations and is clearly one of the best players on the ice on either team every single game. Do we need him to dominate on the score sheet before he can be deemed "ready"? Points are great and are an obvious indicator , but there is MUCH more than that in evaluating how well one is playing. Lots of assists are just easy passes to a player. I would go much more by how many chances Makar is helping to generate, how he is defending etc. Frankly, I don't see how much more he has to learn in the NCAA. If I was making the decisions if a player is ready then I would give him a chance and not base it on how others are doing. If you had 10 potential Crosby's on your team you would not wait until the situation opened up to allow these players to play. You would play them ASAP. Who knows he could be better than all of them right now . Probably not, but if he could be then why not give him a chance to develop. What better way to develop then to learn where you are going to end up playing anyway? This should accelerate development for kids like Makar who have shown they can make these jumps seamlessly. Every time he is faced with another bigger challenge he has met it.

 

[cgf]

The avs are already blooding in a lot of young players on the blueline and you can't just run EJ out there with 5 developing & inconsistent kids. So you have to stagger your incoming young talent on the blueline because there's only so many kids you can shelter at once, you know? Cause this isn't just an NHL thing, even in the AHL you need some experience on the blueline. This same dilemma already cost the once-promising Chris Bigras his shot in colorado. When Nemeth playing like a reliable vet on the left & Girard arriving to join Zads as the primary recipient of all of the staff's attention; left Woody out in the cold and in need of a change-of-scenery trade to try & get his career back on track.

Meloche & Timmins are both really good top 4 RHD prospects; one of whom is already starting to thrive at the pro level, and the other one who is already locked in to go pro next season. And those won't be the only inexperience blueliners in Loveland next season. So why not let Makar learn to dominate game in & game out in college for one more season, before signing him at the end of his college season...either to join the senior team for good, or to get a game or two in at the NHL level before going down to the AHL to continue adjusting to play against men...while one (or both) of those promising RHDs who are going to start next season on the Eagles' blueline, are given their chance to claim a permanent spot on the avs.

Then Makar can gun for a spot at the 2019 training camp, when he should be ready to make an impact, even if in a smaller sheltered role. If Timmins faulters with the transition to pro, or Meloche falls off the rails, then that changes the plan for when Makar does sign, but I'm all for giving him another season to learn how to dominate every game as the go-to guy on his team.


PS Makar is the most talented guy on the ice every night, but he doesn't dominate every night in college yet. He has taken over at times and shown how he can dominate, and that is not what UMass has gotten game-in & game-out.

 

[Guy Gadowsky]

When Makar is on the ice, UMass looks like a halfway-decent team

When Makar is off the ice, UMass looks like UMass

 

[cgf]

When Makar is on the ice, UMass looks like a halfway-decent team

When Makar is off the ice, UMass looks like UMass

*shrug* and when he's at his best they look like an actually good team. Learning to dominate week in & week out as the go to guy at a higher level is still something Makar can work on; alongside any more specific technical aspects of his game.

 

[tigervixxxen]

UMass is not the best development environment for him especially when it locks him out of pro resources for another whole year. He needs to play a lot of games and be challenged, it would be disappointing to see him stay another year.

 

[Slurpeelover27]

Totally agree as in the NCAA they play about half the games. If a player is ready then why wait until he dominates every game? Almost NO player dominates every game. Even the best have off games and on defence sometimes especially when you have the lead you focus more on keeping the puck out of the net. I am guessing he has also been working on his defensive responsibilities in the NCAA, not just racking up the points. We all know he has the ability to do that. So he pretty much can't win in some people's eyes. If he was scoring like crazy people would criticise him for being one dimensional. Now that he showing that he is strong on both ends of the ice and is not leading the scoring race he is criticised. I always felt that great players like Nik Lidstrom or Scott Niedermayer could have scored way more than they ever did if they had put more importance on scoring points, but they wanted to dominate on defence as well. I think a player like Makar will hopefully dominate on offence and be well above average on defence.

Main point is that no rookie jumps in and does not make lots of mistakes. One of the best ways to learn is of course to make mistakes. The NHL is where he will end up soon enough so why not place him in that environment where he can learn in his job as he goes. He is clearly skilled enough, can skate well enough, has great hockey sense, is big enough etc. The Canadian Olympic Hockey team picked him as the ONLY young non-NHLer who they felt would be capable of contributing playing against great players like Kovalchuk, Datsyuk etc. If they think he is ready to jump right in to a team of the best ex-professional NHL players and current KHL players in the world then why would he not be ready to be given a chance in the NHL?

 

[Sharksrule04]

When Makar is on the ice, UMass looks like a halfway-decent team

When Makar is off the ice, UMass looks like UMass

You probably haven't watched UMass much this season if this is how you think. Makar is the flashiest player on the team but the team looks a lot better than you're giving them credit for. Ferraro is a very talented d-man and I'd argue has played as good if not better than Makar when you factor in physical play along with offense/defense. Couturier and McLaughlin also have had very solid seasons for UMass from a defensemen standpoint. Makar has the highest upside on the team and is likely to have the most success but this is the not same awful UMass as teams from the past 3-4 years. There is a lot of talent throughout the lineup and it's almost entirely made up of freshman and sophomores. Forwards like Leonard, Chau and Chaffee have bright college future and in Leonards case I think he has a pro future.

I hope Makar returns for another season because I don't think his game is consistent enough for a pro league yet. I think 1 more college season would benefit his development.

 

[Sharksrule04]

UMass is not the best development environment for him especially when it locks him out of pro resources for another whole year. He needs to play a lot of games and be challenged, it would be disappointing to see him stay another year.

Disagree here. I don't think his issue is that he's not playing enough games. Between WJC and college he'll have 45 or more games played. Playing in Hockey East he's playing some of the best competition in college hockey.

I think his issues are consistency related. If you can't consistently dominate at the college level, what makes you think he's ready for the next level.

 

[tigervixxxen]

The next level being pro hockey, which every other 20 year old plays in. If the Avs signed guys like Sergei Boikov at 20 to play in the AHL at 20 then Makar is more than capable of doing it.

College is the right path for some, I don't believe it's the right path for Makar moving forward. I do believe he needs the games to get better.

That said, I don't think he's going to leave to play in the AHL. I think games this spring would help him rather than being finished in early March.

 

[AppsSyl]

He is dominating now in the NCAA and that was a big jump from the AJHL. There is a reason why he was picked #4 overall and some even said he had a chance to go #1.

I haven't seen Makar play in the NCAA this year other than clips and highlights, and was curious to see how Makar was stacking up offensively against his 2017 drafted NCAA peers who are defensemen after reading this comment stating he is dominating the NCAA.

I was sure to exclude those who were overagers. I was expecting him to be ahead of the curve given the quoted comment and his recent ranking of #4 NHL affiliated prospect in the THN Future Watch, but that doesn’t seem to be the case. Mario Ferraro who is on his own team has had arguably a more impressive season in the NCAA than him. Is the dominating comment a big exaggeration or am I missing something here? There seem to be 5 or 6 guys all drafted way below him from the same draft class that are producing as good or better offensively.

Defensemen Playing in the NCAA From 2017 NHL Draft (No OA Players Included)

Pick #	Team	Player Name	Exp.	GP	G	A	PTS
#4	Colorado Avalanche	Cale Makar (D)	1	34	5	16	21
#43	Winnipeg Jets	Dylan Samberg (D)	1	36	1	9	10
#49	San Jose Sharks	Mario Ferraro (D)	1	39	4	19	23
#52	Carolina Hurricanes	Luke Martin (D)	2	37	1	6	7
#57	Chicago Blackhawks	Ian Mitchell (D)	1	36	2	22	24
#66	Florida Panthers	Maxwell Gildon (D)	1	36	8	15	23
#71	Detroit Red Wings	Kasper Kotkansalo (D)	1	36	2	4	6
#77	New York Islanders	Benjamin Mirageas (D)	1	36	8	11	19
#81	New Jersey Devils	Reilly Walsh (D)	1	31	6	11	17
#82	Arizona Coyotes	Cameron Crotty (D)	1	30	1	6	7
#92	Nashville Predators	David Farrance (D)	1	27	1	5	6
#93	Pittsburgh Penguins	Clayton Phillips (D)	1	11	0	0	0
#103	Los Angeles Kings	Michael Anderson (D)	1	33	4	16	20
#126	Arizona Coyotes	Michael Karow (D)	1	33	0	6	6
#133	Florida Panthers	Tyler Inamoto (D)	1	37	1	3	4
#182	Washington Capitals	Benton Maass (D)	1	36	4	13	17
#208	Edmonton Oilers	Philip Kemp (D)	1	26	3	5	8
#215	Chicago Blackhawks	Joshua Ess (D)	1	33	2	2	4

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[DieTomi]

Looks like his season is over with UMass. Will he be heading to the AHL to finish the year or is the consensus another year in NCAA?

 

[Eltuna]

I haven't seen Makar play in the NCAA this year other than clips and highlights, and was curious to see how Makar was stacking up offensively against his 2017 drafted NCAA peers who are defensemen after reading this comment stating he is dominating the NCAA.

I was sure to exclude those who were overagers. I was expecting him to be ahead of the curve given the quoted comment and his recent ranking of #4 NHL affiliated prospect in the THN Future Watch, but that doesn’t seem to be the case. Mario Ferraro who is on his own team has had arguably a more impressive season in the NCAA than him. Is the dominating comment a big exaggeration or am I missing something here? There seem to be 5 or 6 guys all drafted way below him from the same draft class that are producing as good or better offensively.

Defensemen Playing in the NCAA From 2017 NHL Draft (No OA Players Included)

Pick #	Team	Player Name	Exp.	GP	G	A	PTS
#4	Colorado Avalanche	Cale Makar (D)	1	34	5	16	21
#43	Winnipeg Jets	Dylan Samberg (D)	1	36	1	9	10
#49	San Jose Sharks	Mario Ferraro (D)	1	39	4	19	23
#52	Carolina Hurricanes	Luke Martin (D)	2	37	1	6	7
#57	Chicago Blackhawks	Ian Mitchell (D)	1	36	2	22	24
#66	Florida Panthers	Maxwell Gildon (D)	1	36	8	15	23
#71	Detroit Red Wings	Kasper Kotkansalo (D)	1	36	2	4	6
#77	New York Islanders	Benjamin Mirageas (D)	1	36	8	11	19
#81	New Jersey Devils	Reilly Walsh (D)	1	31	6	11	17
#82	Arizona Coyotes	Cameron Crotty (D)	1	30	1	6	7
#92	Nashville Predators	David Farrance (D)	1	27	1	5	6
#93	Pittsburgh Penguins	Clayton Phillips (D)	1	11	0	0	0
#103	Los Angeles Kings	Michael Anderson (D)	1	33	4	16	20
#126	Arizona Coyotes	Michael Karow (D)	1	33	0	6	6
#133	Florida Panthers	Tyler Inamoto (D)	1	37	1	3	4
#182	Washington Capitals	Benton Maass (D)	1	36	4	13	17
#208	Edmonton Oilers	Philip Kemp (D)	1	26	3	5	8
#215	Chicago Blackhawks	Joshua Ess (D)	1	33	2	2	4

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

If the purpose of the OP is to consider body of work and future upside in determining our rankings (which I am assuming is the point with Dahlin included), my top 5 D prospects not currently in the NHL would be:

1) Rasmus Dahlin
2) Timothy Liljegren
3) Thomas Chabot
4) Charlie McAvoy
5) tie Dante Fabbro & Miro Heiskanen

Has anyone even noticed Makar? I forgot he was playing for 1/2 the period.

Zeke isn't the only Leaf fan that thinks Liljegren should have went top 5. Thre are fans from other fanbases that likely feel he should have as well. If one is of the belief that his lack of improvement this past season stemmed from the mono and then the hip injury shortly after, of course in their minds he is still going to be viewed as top 5 talent. Prior to those things he was ranked 2nd or 3rd on pretty much every single list.

How is this view any different from a Devils fan's view that Hischier's large drop in production was the result of a minor wrist injury? In one case it is excusable and in the other it isn't?

The fact that Liljegren in both development camp and the WJSS has shown signs of him being his old self, and playing like top 5 talent (outperforming #4 Makar, #5 Pettersson and #6 Glass at the WJSS) further supports the belief that his season was mired in a series of unfortunate events, which caused a stagnation in his progression.

We will all see this season, and I wouldn't bet against him.

People are saying he went from Jr. A to the NCAA and it is a big jump to make excuses for his start. The point is he was drafted 4th overall, and hailed by many around here as the most offensively gifted d-man in the draft, because he lit up Jr. A. The reality is many d-men in the 1st round of the draft could have torched Jr. A, and how his game is going to translate against stiffer competition like the NCAA is a question mark. Hopefully he adjusts, but he seems like an awful risk to have been taken 4th OA for a team that needs to hit that pick out of the park.

When you look at Liljegren's stat line and Makar's, they are almost identical except one is doing it in the AHL and adjusting to NA ice and the other is doing it in the NCAA, and I would argue Liljegren is better defensively.

Cale Makar

2017-18

UMass (Amherst)

NCAA

13

1

7

8

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Timothy Liljegren

2017-18

Toronto Marlies

AHL

13

1

6

7

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Makar for one.
What Liljegren has done in the AHL as an 18 year old and the strides that has made defensively and with his two-way game, while possessing the same offensive upside as Makar lead me to believe that he is the better pick, and seems more impressive to me than what Makar has done in the NCAA. Add the fact that Liljegren has over the course of the season shown the pre-draft criticisms to be largely overblown and downright false in some cases places him in my opinion near the top of his draft class. He has shown the promise that he has a very good chance to become a very good all around defenseman, and more than just an offensive powerplay specialist, like many pigeon hole him as.

Something tells me you don’t actually care about his season. Your hate for Makar and love of Lilegren creates a very obvious agenda that you are continually trying to push. And this was only the posts I could quote, their was at least 10 more that were in locked threads. Including,

What in the world was Cale Makar doing? Horrible defence! Jan 5

Many many quotes belittling Makar as a way to prop Lilegren up in the Leafs sign Timothy Liljegren thread.

And a great post before the 2017 draft on Mar 1st where you call Makar a “great prospect”

If you admittedly haven’t watched him in the NCAA, and most likely didn’t watch him in the AJHL, then the only times you’ve seen him play is in the world juniors and the summer showcase, where he looked fantastic both times and was arguably Canada’s best dman in both. You don’t have to be his biggest fan, hell Ive been one of the most skeptical avs fans of the Makar pick, but it’s very obvious you only point out Makars flaws as an attempt to make Liljegren look better. The passive aggressive comments towards Makar are staggering in number.