CXLIX - FINAL thoughts on the Arizona Coyotes

[aqib]

Phx or AZ is supposed to be a big market. Is it about time that they begin daring their sports team to make good on their threat to leave vs giving in and putting up 9 figures of tax payers money into arenas? I mean the suns being in AZ was about a $500 mill difference vs what the Milwaukee Bucks was valued for.

City put in around $160 mill to gain an extra 15 years on the lease. Most new venue sports team leases are like 30 years.

Remember the NBA left Seattle for OKC who is no where near their size. Then kept the Kings in Sacramento when they agreed to pay for a new arena. The NFL left LA and stayed out for 21 years. It happens.

 

[Shwan]

Financial ramifications more than anything, nobody is going to drop billions of dollars for a team and arena, when there are already two viable ones in the area.

LA area is about to live in a world where Intuit Dome and the Kia Forum are neighbors, and Crypto.com is about 10 miles from them, and Ponda is barely ~30 miles away to the south.

Barring any economic earthquakes 2008 the Phoenix Metro wouldn't have a problem supporting an Arena district in the Southeast, Central Phoenix and Glendale in about 7-10 years.

 

[objectiveposter]

If the league expands to 34 they will want an eastern time zone team and a western team. Atlanta seems like a lock for the east. If you had 2.5 billion+ to invest in a new nhl team and arena why would you choose phoenix over houston? Houston is a bigger market without a recently failed hockey team...and you are only competing with one other arena in the market. I think it will be a lot harder than it seems to find expansion interest. Last time only Las Vegas and Seattle put in formal expansion bids...and that was when franchises cost 600 million. Now it will be north of 1.2 billion and the costs for constructing arenas have ballooned to well north of 1 billion. The reality is most cities are now priced out of the market. The best time was when you could buy the coyotes for 400 mill and either get a sweetheart lease in glendale or build your own arena...and they couldnt get it done after 10+ years of trying. Now all of a sudden someone is gonna fork over 2.5 billion? I dont think so.

 

[aqib]

LA area is about to live in a world where Intuit Dome and the Kia Forum are neighbors, and Crypto.com is about 10 miles from them, and Ponda is barely ~30 miles away to the south.

Barring any economic earthquakes 2008 the Phoenix Metro wouldn't have a problem supporting an Arena district in the Southeast, Central Phoenix and Glendale in about 7-10 years.

Yeah because you have a guy worth like $100 billion that wanted an NBA team so badly he paid twice what the team was worth, then decided he wanted his own arena so badly he paid twice what it normally costs to build one, and then was willing to pay MSG $400 million just to leave him alone. If there is anyone like that out there they would have bought the Coyotes at some point before they got shipped to Utah.

 

[Shwan]

Yeah because you have a guy worth like $100 billion that wanted an NBA team so badly he paid twice what the team was worth, then decided he wanted his own arena so badly he paid twice what it normally costs to build one, and then was willing to pay MSG $400 million just to leave him alone. If there is anyone like that out there they would have bought the Coyotes at some point before they got shipped to Utah.

No one in the Valley was going to buy the Enron of sports franchises because they knew how horribly underwater the team was. Now that the equation is pay $X for a new hockey team I don't have doubt there will be eventually someone willing to bite.

The question was if a third arena would be feasible in the Phoenix metro and in the Southeast Valley it will be soon enough as I've explained a few times on this thread.

I have to drive by this Boujee testament to man's hubris near daily so I have no problems saying confidently by 2030 this part of the valley will easily be able to support a Hockey team with white affluent families ready to snatch up season tickets

Cannon Beach has something for everyone
The 37-acre mixed-use development is anchored by Revel Surf, the first surf park development in the world to feature both a large traveling wave and a stationary rapid surf wave in one park.

 

[dj4aces]

The question was if a third arena would be feasible in the Phoenix metro and in the Southeast Valley it will be soon enough as I've explained a few times on this thread.

I have to drive by this Boujee testament to man's hubris near daily so I have no problems saying confidently by 2030 this part of the valley will easily be able to support a Hockey team with white affluent families ready to snatch up season tickets

What is the affluent (white, black, hispanic, none of that really matters) population in Mesa like today? Is there already a considerable number of folks, and that number is trending upward? And, can Mesa withstand the pending housing market correction that we're already overdue for? Honest questions, because as my location suggests, I know nothing of the metro Phoenix area outside of what I've read in these threads.

I want to see the league return, and want a city to be willing to open their arms and welcome a developer who will build a barn and bring in a team, so don't get it twisted. I've long supported Phoenix, and even adopted them as my western conference team after the Wings moved back to the east. But I also don't want to see an area bite off more than it can chew. It would suck to have three major arenas in town and only one hosting professional sporting events.

 

[TheLegend]

What is the affluent (white, black, hispanic, none of that really matters) population in Mesa like today? Is there already a considerable number of folks, and that number is trending upward? And, can Mesa withstand the pending housing market correction that we're already overdue for? Honest questions, because as my location suggests, I know nothing of the metro Phoenix area outside of what I've read in these threads.

I want to see the league return, and want a city to be willing to open their arms and welcome a developer who will build a barn and bring in a team, so don't get it twisted. I've long supported Phoenix, and even adopted them as my western conference team after the Wings moved back to the east. But I also don't want to see an area bite off more than it can chew. It would suck to have three major arenas in town and only one hosting professional sporting events.

Cardinals tried twice (and failed) to get their stadium built there (1999 and 2002).

 

[Shwan]

What is the affluent (white, black, hispanic, none of that really matters) population in Mesa like today? Is there already a considerable number of folks, and that number is trending upward? And, can Mesa withstand the pending housing market correction that we're already overdue for? Honest questions, because as my location suggests, I know nothing of the metro Phoenix area outside of what I've read in these threads.
I want to see the league return, and want a city to be willing to open their arms and welcome a developer who will build a barn and bring in a team, so don't get it twisted. I've long supported Phoenix, and even adopted them as my western conference team after the Wings moved back to the east. But I also don't want to see an area bite off more than it can chew. It would suck to have three major arenas in town and only one hosting professional sporting events.

There's two Mesa's now. Meth Mesa and San Francisco 2.0 Mesa.

The sprawl is pushing to the Southeast to where Queen Creek and Mesa now basically connect because of the Elliot Tech Corridor where Amazon, Meta, Google and Apple are all building down data centers. A lot of industrial buildings going up for tech companies in the area and luxury shopping like this artificial beach nonsense.

Queen Creek is also considered to be the second/third wealthiest city in the Valley at this point too.

So you have Southeast Mesa continuing to build out, drawing wealthy families, Queen Creek which has has huge wealth gains, and you have the established high income areas of Ocotillo, Chandler and Gilbert right by. That would definitely be enough to sustain a hockey team if the Florida Panthers and Carolina Hurricanes are anything to go by (as long as you ice a competitive product)

Now how this will hold up with this impending correction? Hard to say but it does seem like Mesa/Queen Creek have done some work to insulate themselves from the catastrophic issues Glendale stumbled into in '08.

Even if we were to bake in a correction/retraction, by 2030 the area will be still developing and growing likely. Putting an arena somewhere central to this box will provide the best chances for a new hockey team to succeed.

 

[Sgt Schultz]

If the league expands to 34 they will want an eastern time zone team and a western team. Atlanta seems like a lock for the east. If you had 2.5 billion+ to invest in a new nhl team and arena why would you choose phoenix over houston? Houston is a bigger market without a recently failed hockey team...and you are only competing with one other arena in the market. I think it will be a lot harder than it seems to find expansion interest. Last time only Las Vegas and Seattle put in formal expansion bids...and that was when franchises cost 600 million. Now it will be north of 1.2 billion and the costs for constructing arenas have ballooned to well north of 1 billion. The reality is most cities are now priced out of the market. The best time was when you could buy the coyotes for 400 mill and either get a sweetheart lease in glendale or build your own arena...and they couldnt get it done after 10+ years of trying. Now all of a sudden someone is gonna fork over 2.5 billion? I dont think so.

A lot of what you say is why I think the league will expand to 34 teams, not 36, in the next "wave." And that assumes Houston and the NHL can come to terms on an expansion fee.

That's not so say Phoenix won't get another team after that. But, they are in the same boat as every other market where they need a solid ownership group and an arena up to NHL standards in a location fans will go to.

Contrary to what some think, Footprint is not viable for hockey due to a horrible configuration (it was basically a force-fit configuration) and Desert Diamond is in a location that has more or less proven it is too inconvenient to consistently draw enough of the fanbase to make things work. I think the closest the Coyotes came to filling DD was when Gretzky came in as coach, and their yearly home attendance was at just under 91%. Keep in mind, DD seats a little over 17,000 for hockey, so it is not like they are trying to fill the LA Coliseum. Their average over the years looks like it is probably about 80%. Sure, there are other factors (on-ice competitiveness, despised ownership) but those numbers are pretty consistent over their time there.

But, I am probably in the minority of thinking the NHL is not as hell-bent in getting back into Phoenix as some think and not pegged at getting to 36 teams. They just basically lost a franchise, so I think they are going to be even more conservative than usual about assessing the general subject of expansion.

 

[Tawnos]

If the league expands to 34 they will want an eastern time zone team and a western team. Atlanta seems like a lock for the east. If you had 2.5 billion+ to invest in a new nhl team and arena why would you choose phoenix over houston? Houston is a bigger market without a recently failed hockey team...and you are only competing with one other arena in the market. I think it will be a lot harder than it seems to find expansion interest. Last time only Las Vegas and Seattle put in formal expansion bids...and that was when franchises cost 600 million. Now it will be north of 1.2 billion and the costs for constructing arenas have ballooned to well north of 1 billion. The reality is most cities are now priced out of the market. The best time was when you could buy the coyotes for 400 mill and either get a sweetheart lease in glendale or build your own arena...and they couldnt get it done after 10+ years of trying. Now all of a sudden someone is gonna fork over 2.5 billion? I dont think so.

Arena construction within the city of Houston is not possible except unless it's Fertitta doing it. He has an agreement with the city. It's not popping into my head right now, but it might actually be the entirety of Harris County. If you're asking why you'd choose Phoenix over Houston, it would solely be because anyone else cannot build an arena in Houston at all.

 

[Sgt Schultz]

There's two Mesa's now. Meth Mesa and San Francisco 2.0 Mesa.

The sprawl is pushing to the Southeast to where Queen Creek and Mesa now basically connect because of the Elliot Tech Corridor where Amazon, Meta, Google and Apple are all building down data centers. A lot of industrial buildings going up for tech companies in the area and luxury shopping like this artificial beach nonsense.

Queen Creek is also considered to be the second/third wealthiest city in the Valley at this point too.

So you have Southeast Mesa continuing to build out, drawing wealthy families, Queen Creek which has has huge wealth gains, and you have the established high income areas of Ocotillo, Chandler and Gilbert right by. That would definitely be enough to sustain a hockey team if the Florida Panthers and Carolina Hurricanes are anything to go by (as long as you ice a competitive product)

Now how this will hold up with this impending correction? Hard to say but it does seem like Mesa/Queen Creek have done some work to insulate themselves from the catastrophic issues Glendale stumbled into in '08.

Even if we were to bake in a correction/retraction, by 2030 the area will be still developing and growing likely. Putting an arena somewhere central to this box will provide the best chances for a new hockey team to succeed.

View attachment 895454

Thanks for posting that. It helps me understand what is going on in terms of growth.

I'll date myself with this, but when I lived in the area I was in Chandler. Gilbert was almost the end of the earth, and to the east, Apache Junction (northeast of Sunland Spring Village to those unfamiliar with the area) was a distinct place with no connection to the greater Phoenix area. The Phoenix-Mesa Airport was Williams AFB.

What most people will not realize is the area really can't go south of Sun Lakes, Cooper Commons, or Chandler Heights because they abut the Gila River Indian Reservation. That forces growth southeast, past Queen Creek, and east of the area shown on the map.

 

[Shwan]

Thanks for posting that. It helps me understand what is going on in terms of growth.

I'll date myself with this, but when I lived in the area I was in Chandler. Gilbert was almost the end of the earth, and to the east, Apache Junction (northeast of Sunland Spring Village to those unfamiliar with the area) was a distinct place with no connection to the greater Phoenix area. The Phoenix-Mesa Airport was Williams AFB.

What most people will not realize is the area really can't go south of Sun Lakes, Cooper Commons, or Chandler Heights because they abut the Gila River Indian Reservation. That forces growth southeast, past Queen Creek, and east of the area shown on the map.

Spot on, the bottom of my picture is that border with the reservation

I would say most of this has been within the last 5-7 years too so it's a fairly rapid development. Most farmland in Mesa/Gilbert is being picked off for vertical/condensed housing to pack in as much as they can, as you indicated the sprawl is going past Queen Creek to San Tan Valley and beyond. It's not unfathomable to believe we could see continuous development from the Valley to Florence Arizona one day, which would certainly be a sight.

I do also believe that a town like Queen Creek would be much more amenable to the tax concessions we've seen from places like SLC as well. The town still has plenty of farm land and just about the only entertainment in the town is Schnepf Farms/Olive Mill and the Dave and Busters by the Target

 

[aqib]

No one in the Valley was going to buy the Enron of sports franchises because they knew how horribly underwater the team was. Now that the equation is pay $X for a new hockey team I don't have doubt there will be eventually someone willing to bite.

The question was if a third arena would be feasible in the Phoenix metro and in the Southeast Valley it will be soon enough as I've explained a few times on this thread.

I have to drive by this Boujee testament to man's hubris near daily so I have no problems saying confidently by 2030 this part of the valley will easily be able to support a Hockey team with white affluent families ready to snatch up season tickets

The fact that X = 3 billion is what the hurdle is. At one point X was less than 10% of that and came with a cash payment from Glendale.
Now everyone can say "the other side of town is more lucrative" ok I can accept that. But a new arena you're talking over $60 million in debt service on the arena alone instead of $15 million a year subsidy. So is it $75 million better?

 

[Shwan]

The fact that X = 3 billion is what the hurdle is. At one point X was less than 10% of that and came with a cash payment from Glendale.
Now everyone can say "the other side of town is more lucrative" ok I can accept that. But a new arena you're talking over $60 million in debt service on the arena alone instead of $15 million a year subsidy. So is it $75 million better?

That part I'm absolutely not arguing about my dude I'm in complete agreement there. I'm not holding my breath for a quick turn around like some other Coyotes fans.

Maybe someone stupid rich shows up that wants a hockey team as badly as Ballmer wanted the Clippers? Maybe a group like OVG just comes in to build an arena just to see what happens like they're doing in Vegas?

Who knows. All I'm saying is if some White Knight eventually comes in with the extremely deep pockets required to own a sports franchise this day in age, they shouldn't have a political/revenue/attendance/event calendar problem placing their hypothetical arena where I'm saying (as long as they actually treat their team like a team and not a 99 Cent store like the Coyotes were).

That might be in 2032, 2040 or never.

 

[awfulwaffle]

Even if someone that's worth $10 billion comes in and wants to build an arena, they still have to get through the political process of AZ. We've seen how difficult that can be. I truly believe the best shot the Coyotes 2.0 would have, is if Ishbia takes them on when it's time for a) rennovation of footprint, or b) city of phoenix builds a new arena. Current lease runs through 2037, so it'll be a looong time before the Coyotes come back.

 

[LadyStanley]

So, for historical purposes, are we calling the Arizona Coyotes the first team in North American pro sports to actually FOLD in over half a century?

I’d think so.

Nope. Perhaps first major league team. But we had ECHL team fold this spring. And I recall ECHL San Francisco Bulls folding in the middle of the season thus century.

And other lower level league (hockey) teams.

 

[CHRDANHUTCH]

Nope. Perhaps first major league team. But we had ECHL team fold this spring. And I recall ECHL San Francisco Bulls folding in the middle of the season thus century.

And other lower level league (hockey) teams.

depends on the scenario.... but I don't recall a team being folded or terminated anywhere prior to the season starting..... or in the case of Edmonton not informing the AHL of a relocation after the master schedule was released and landing in Toronto's backyard before MLSE landed the Marlies there from Newfoundland.... which the AHL didn't take too kindly....

 

[aqib]

Even if someone that's worth $10 billion comes in and wants to build an arena, they still have to get through the political process of AZ. We've seen how difficult that can be. I truly believe the best shot the Coyotes 2.0 would have, is if Ishbia takes them on when it's time for a) rennovation of footprint, or b) city of phoenix builds a new arena. Current lease runs through 2037, so it'll be a looong time before the Coyotes come back.

I mean there is always the chance that someone who is a diehard Coyotes fan starts a tech company, becomes a multi-billionaire, and decides he wants to revitalize the franchise. But I can't see someone in the current pool of billionaires jumping in.

 

[aqib]

depends on the scenario.... but I don't recall a team being folded or terminated anywhere prior to the season starting..... or in the case of Edmonton not informing the AHL of a relocation after the master schedule was released and landing in Toronto's backyard before MLSE landed the Marlies there from Newfoundland.... which the AHL didn't take too kindly....

The Roadrunners moved from Hamilton to Toronto so the move did not require AHL approval since it was in their territory. The Leafs put the Marlies in when the Oilers moved their AHL team to Edmonton for the 04-05 lockout season.

 

[awfulwaffle]

I mean there is always the chance that someone who is a diehard Coyotes fan starts a tech company, becomes a multi-billionaire, and decides he wants to revitalize the franchise. But I can't see someone in the current pool of billionaires jumping in.

But again, you are going to face the same hurdles that AM faced. Cities aren't going to want to help whoever it is build an arena. And the Coyotes by themselves don't make money, so it's going to have to be a multi use district(as it should be - bars in front of the arena, etc.).

 

[aqib]

But again, you are going to face the same hurdles that AM faced. Cities aren't going to want to help whoever it is build an arena. And the Coyotes by themselves don't make money, so it's going to have to be a multi use district(as it should be - bars in front of the arena, etc.).

There were a lot of self-inflicted hurdles too. However the biggest hurdle is the market itself.

 

[dj4aces]

But again, you are going to face the same hurdles that AM faced. Cities aren't going to want to help whoever it is build an arena. And the Coyotes by themselves don't make money, so it's going to have to be a multi use district(as it should be - bars in front of the arena, etc.).

Yes, there absolutely are political hurdles to overcome, but such hurdles exist everywhere. The plan to build a mixed-use facility ten miles from here, in Forsyth County, has political maneuvering that may still need to be overcome. You name a place, and there are/were absolutely hurdles to jump. Arizona is not unique, this is all par for the course.

What's needed, above all else, is a developer that is an effective communicator, flexible and willing to work with city/county/state government to ensure everything goes smoothly and under whatever terms the sides all agree on. Putting it all into words is downright easy. The hard part is finding that deep-pocketed individual who can do that.

The timeline for bringing the desert dogs to a forever home is wholly dependent on that. Whether such an animal exists and is interested in bringing hockey back to Phoenix is another story, and a question no one here can answer -- at least not yet.

 

[Tawnos]

Yes, there absolutely are political hurdles to overcome, but such hurdles exist everywhere. The plan to build a mixed-use facility ten miles from here, in Forsyth County, has political maneuvering that may still need to be overcome. You name a place, and there are/were absolutely hurdles to jump. Arizona is not unique, this is all par for the course.

What's needed, above all else, is a developer that is an effective communicator, flexible and willing to work with city/county/state government to ensure everything goes smoothly and under whatever terms the sides all agree on. Putting it all into words is downright easy. The hard part is finding that deep-pocketed individual who can do that.

The timeline for bringing the desert dogs to a forever home is wholly dependent on that. Whether such an animal exists and is interested in bringing hockey back to Phoenix is another story, and a question no one here can answer -- at least not yet.

My understanding for decades now has been that Arizona is exceptional in how difficult these projects can be.

 

[TheLegend]

There were a lot of self-inflicted hurdles too. However the biggest hurdle is the market itself.

And we covered the subject of "non-traditional" markets a lot over the years didn't we??

 

[TheLegend]

Yes, there absolutely are political hurdles to overcome, but such hurdles exist everywhere. The plan to build a mixed-use facility ten miles from here, in Forsyth County, has political maneuvering that may still need to be overcome. You name a place, and there are/were absolutely hurdles to jump. Arizona is not unique, this is all par for the course.

What's needed, above all else, is a developer that is an effective communicator, flexible and willing to work with city/county/state government to ensure everything goes smoothly and under whatever terms the sides all agree on. Putting it all into words is downright easy. The hard part is finding that deep-pocketed individual who can do that.

The timeline for bringing the desert dogs to a forever home is wholly dependent on that. Whether such an animal exists and is interested in bringing hockey back to Phoenix is another story, and a question no one here can answer -- at least not yet.

Other than neither the Flames nor Thrashers were dragged through 28 continuous years worth of bad operation (and I know all about ASG).