Proposal: Curtis Lazar for Tobias Rieder

[Xspyrit]

I have no idea why on earth Arizona would even think of that deal. Rieder >>>>> Lazar

Why do people always have to come up with those stupid emo statements? 5 > to express the difference between a 20 and 35 pts player? really?

Is it a reasonable expectation that Lazar doubles his point totals next season? I feel like that's a tall order. If Rieder improves his output by just 10% he's a .50ppg, >40pt player next season. If Curtis Lazar improves by 50% he's a 30pt player next year. I feel like that's a pretty conservative expectation for Rieder given his young age, and a pretty optimistic expectation for Lazar, given the huge percentage increase that represents.

So if you're that bullish on Lazar and that bearish on Rieder, it makes sense to hang onto Lazar. If your hopes are a little higher for Rieder and a little lower for Lazar next season and maybe the season after, this might make some sense if you're Ottawa and making moves like Zibanejad for Brassard already, and trying to make the playoffs. Cal it 40% jump for Lazar and 20% jump for Rieder and you're looking at 28pts vs 45pts for a 17pt difference. Not a ton of points but a 61% bump over Lazar in that scenario. Plus a very early 3rd rounder for a redundant piece is Borowiecki. Is that enough? Tough call.

I wouldn't try to play with % to try to predict their future output. For Lazar, it really depends on the type of minutes he gets (quantity and quality). If it continues like in his first 2 seasons (mainly 4th line defensive duties with a bit of 3rd line assignements), then you can expect ~20 points. If he gets more opportunities, I think he cracks the 30 pts this year. Depends on injuries of his teammates, Ottawa is very deep offensively as in Stone, Hoffman, Ryan, Brassard, Turris, MacArthur, Pageau and Smith will get more offensive minutes. Even Puempel and Dzingel might be more talented offensively. IMO, there isn't really an opportunity in Ottawa for Lazar to develop offensively. And with Logan Brown, White, Perron, Dahlen, etc coming up in the next few years, I don't see that changing anytime soon.

Hes apparently been working like a machine this off season at a variety of things, and coming in with a huge chip on his shoulder too because he's aware of the opinions out there that he's destined to be a plug.

Yeah, knowing Lazar's character, it's a sure thing that he will be working his ass off to become a better player. Work and dedication can get you far. He has to beat so many good players though. But I don't see any reason why Ottawa wouldn't be patient with him, he doesn't hurt the team on the ice and 20 pts for a 4th liner is good production.

Zibanejad for Brassard was a bold, brilliant move imo. I can understand someone outside of the fan base not quite understanding the move, but it was necessary to help the Sens take the next step.

What is really great about this trade is that Brassard will cost the Sens "only" 10.0 for the next 3 years, so it's like he was on a 3.33 cap hit (for the budget). Awesome financially. Zibanejad will cost more on his next contract to provide probably less than Brassard.

And like you said, Turris, Brassard, Pageau, Smith, Lazar (all below 30) with Paul, White and Brown coming up... Zibanejad could be sacrified without too much pain.

 

[Samsquanch]

That's not quite how math works. 50% of 20 points is 10, so a 50% increase in production results in 20 + 10 = 30 points.

LOL ya late night post when I couldn't sleep...I get it.

 

[rt]

Great insight, Sam and X. Educational thread so far.

 

[Xspyrit]

Great insight, Sam and X. Educational thread so far.

No problem. Where do I send the bill?

 

[rt]

Terrible situation with MacArthur. I've always been a fan of his and I really hope for the best with him.

That said, this probably makes more sense for Ottawa now, does it not?

 

[rt]

Also, safe to assume Patrick Sieloff is going to need a new team. Add both he and Dahlbeck to the proposal?

Rieder+Dahlbeck+3rd for Lazar+Sieloff+Borowiecki

???

 

[KnuckChuckinTkachuk]

Also, safe to assume Patrick Sieloff is going to need a new team. Add both he and Dahlbeck to the proposal?

Rieder+Dahlbeck+3rd for Lazar+Sieloff+Borowiecki

???

Send the paperwork

 

[h2owned]

Also, safe to assume Patrick Sieloff is going to need a new team. Add both he and Dahlbeck to the proposal?

Rieder+Dahlbeck+3rd for Lazar+Sieloff+Borowiecki

???

Was on the fence before the McArthur injury but now totally on board with that from a Sens POV
edit : Still not signed and wont accept 2x2.5 and not reporting to camp. Might cost too much for the sens $$ wise although the value is there

 

[Benjamin]

Contract situation still makes me lean towards no. I don't think I've actually seen Rieder play.

 

[Samsquanch]

Send the paperwork

Haha yup, pretty much. Before it became clear that Mac will likely never be an NHLer again, I would have rather passed on this deal.

But now that its clear that we are going to have a hole in the top 6, Reider would be a great fit there imo. As much as it would suck letting go of Lazar before he develops, his current role (bottom 6 forward) can be filled by a multitude of players in the organization.

 

[Neiler]

It is a good proposal but I still wouldn't bite. With Mac out Smith will move up to 2LW and while it's not super ideal, it'll do. Dzingel and Puempel will take the 3 & 4 spots.

I really want to see what Lazar is before considering anything like this. Also Rieder's contract issues scare me away as a potential suitor.

 

[rt]

Was on the fence before the McArthur injury but now totally on board with that from a Sens POV
edit : Still not signed and wont accept 2x2.5 and not reporting to camp. Might cost too much for the sens $$ wise although the value is there

Rieder camp's ask is 2yr, 5m, 2.5avg

Coyotes offer is 2yr, 4.3m, 2.15avg

 

[Hale The Villain]

Rieder camp's ask is 2yr, 5m, 2.5avg

Coyotes offer is 2yr, 4.3m, 2.15avg

Why would the Yotes haggle over such a minuscule amount of money?

 

[AZviaNJ]

Why would the Yotes haggle over such a minuscule amount of money?

Why would Reider's camp?

 

[Hale The Villain]

Why would Reider's camp?

Cause he's worth far more than 2.15M, and he knows the Yotes can afford it.

 

[rt]

Precedent.

 

[rt]

Tobias Rieder is 23 years old. He has two NHL seasons under his belt.
1. 21pts
2. 37pts

Curtis Lazar is 21 years old. He has two NHL seasons under his belt.
1. 15pts
2. 20pts

Both players are trusted PKers on their respective clubs.

Rieder is rumored to be asking for less than 3m per season but at least 500kay more per year than Arizona is offering.

He shouldn't break the bank, but he'll certainly cost more than Lazar next season.

Lazar also has the versatility of possibly playing center at some point.

Rieder is definitely a little more proven, though. And should be no worse than a 40-45pt NHL winger with PK ability.

We would hope Lazar has that same upside or better, but he hasn't shown it year (though he is two years younger so it's not apples to apples).

As for the cash:

http://arizonasports.com/story/750850/coyotes-notes-coyotes-rieder-seeks-2-year-deal/


Craig Morgan is basically the mouthpiece for the organization. He's fed directly from Coyotes management.

If Sens fans want to even cash out a bit, I'd be happy to take Borowiecki off their hands. I'd add a mid-round pick, too, if necessary. Something to help make up for that 2nd rounder lost in the Brassard deal. How about whichever 3rd we don't have to give to Florida in '17 (either the AZ 3rd or the DET 3rd [previously acquired in the Letunov to SJS deal] as a part of the Lawson Crouse deal?

So...

To ARI:
Lazar
Borowiecki

To OTT:
Rieder
'17 3rd

Feel free to flame and bash.

A lot has changed since the OP in just a short time.

1. Clarke MacArthur is unfortunately going to miss the season.

2. Tobias Rieder's agent has suggested a trade would be best.

I'd think both sides would be more interested as a result.

 

[Xspyrit]

And Lazar currently has mono...

 

[Curufinwe]

And Lazar currently has mono...

He's a bit older than usual for getting the kissing disease.

 

[edguy]

He's a bit older than usual for getting the kissing disease.

Late Bloomer? But in all reality he's only 21. Not uncommon..

 

[Micklebot]

A lot has changed since the OP in just a short time.

1. Clarke MacArthur is unfortunately going to miss the season.

2. Tobias Rieder's agent has suggested a trade would be best.

I'd think both sides would be more interested as a result.

funny you should post that the same day as MacArthur comes out and says he has no plans on retiring and he's feeling far better than expected. I'm still assuming he's out until proven otherwise, but the timing is funny when the man himself says he's aiming to be back on the ice soon.

 

[PAZ]

Rieder has the potential to be a 50 pt player that can generate offense on the 2nd/3rd line.

Lazar has the potential to be a 3rd/4th line defensive specialist, he'll become a dime a dozen player like Winnik or Gaustad.

Ottawa should take this and run.

 

[trentmccleary]

Rieder has the potential to be a 50 pt player that can generate offense on the 2nd/3rd line.

Lazar has the potential to be a 3rd/4th line defensive specialist, he'll become a dime a dozen player like Winnik or Gaustad.

Ottawa should take this and run.

Their career record at different ages does not suggest the difference will be between a 50point 2nd liner and a dime a dozen 4th liner.

They're two years apart and Rieder got quite a bit of offensive opportunity to post that 37 points as a 23yo.

 

[rt]

funny you should post that the same day as MacArthur comes out and says he has no plans on retiring and he's feeling far better than expected. I'm still assuming he's out until proven otherwise, but the timing is funny when the man himself says he's aiming to be back on the ice soon.

I hope he recovers fully and as quickly as possible. I still worry about him coming back, though. He's young, he's a millionaire, he's got less dangerous options for work.